flyguy84
Topic Author
Posts: 662
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:26 pm

Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:46 pm

It appears that Airbus and United are in continued talks about a possible order for 321LR and/or 330’s.
No doubt the 321LR seems to be the only logical replacement for the 757s available at this time.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean an order will be made, there is some more information that we haven’t seen previously in the article.

Interesting to note the 330NEO made a visit to ORD earlier this month.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... cs-450083/
SFO
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 8626
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:58 pm

How long does United have before the 787 slots start evaporating?
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
mcdu
Posts: 1316
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:48 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
How long does United have before the 787 slots start evaporating?


What slots are United holding that they aren’t taking? Would you possibly mean “options”? Those aren’t slots
 
fightforlove
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 7:36 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:00 pm

Maybe a split A/B order starting with a batch of A321s would force Boeing into finally launching the 797, and with a sweet deal for UA as one of the launch customers.
 
727200
Posts: 590
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:00 pm

I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3315
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:39 pm

727200 wrote:
I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.


United recently increased the A350 order. Where did you hear UA is not impress with the A350?

UA needs something for its Transatlantic, Hawaii and US transcon markets that are being served by 757s and 767s. In today’s economy I think it would have to be a mix of airplanes since the A321 is too small and A330neo is too big for many of their routes.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:45 pm

727200 wrote:
I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.

When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.

Michael
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 2757
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:00 am

It would not surprise me to see UA swap the A350s for A321s. It would match UA's desire to work on their domestic network. I don't see an A321 order straight up.

eamondzhang wrote:
When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.


Increasing the order is more of a formality. We don't know the details of the order. It very well could have been a change that makes it easier to convert the order to a different model. The fact that UA delayed the first delivery out to 2022 tells us they are in no hurry to get the A350 on the property, giving credence to the notion that UA will replace the widebody order. The one who talked about the A359 being a 772 replacement isn't even with UA anymore.
 
Sooner787
Posts: 2223
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:44 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:09 am

I think UA let it leak out that they're talking to Airbus about A330NEOS
in order to score an even better deal for new 788's than AA got
 
GripenFan
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:41 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:13 am

To me it seems like a bit of a stretch that just because Airbus sent United essentially marketing material that somehow they’re in talks to buy these airplanes. I used to hold Flight Global in higher regard, but these days they seem to be more a mouthpiece for Airbus’s marketing department...
 
User avatar
OA940
Posts: 1439
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 6:18 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:18 am

MSPNWA wrote:
It would not surprise me to see UA swap the A350s for A321s. It would match UA's desire to work on their domestic network. I don't see an A321 order straight up.

eamondzhang wrote:
When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.


Increasing the order is more of a formality. We don't know the details of the order. It very well could have been a change that makes it easier to convert the order to a different model. The fact that UA delayed the first delivery out to 2022 tells us they are in no hurry to get the A350 on the property, giving credence to the notion that UA will replace the widebody order. The one who talked about the A359 being a 772 replacement isn't even with UA anymore.


Umm. The 359 as an aircraft is meant exactly for a 772 replacement. The reason that the guy who said it isn't with the airline is because they found out who he was and booted him because they (understandably) don't appreciate their plans being leaked.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
L0VE2FLY
Posts: 955
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:54 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:26 am

727200 wrote:
I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.


Your thinking is wrong my friend! You think the A350 has no place in United's fleet, really? Did the little bird tell you that United plans to keep their fleet of 74 772 & 77E forever?! Cancelling the A350 order would make UA's future long haul fleet almost exclusively 787 just like AA, that may be great news for you but not to pax who love to enjoy the view like yours truly! When I book a window seat, the last thing I want is the crew remotely closing my window, that's why I'll always avoid the 787. I hope we'll never see the gimmicky dimming windows on future airliners.


MSPNWA wrote:
The one who talked about the A359 being a 772 replacement isn't even with UA anymore.


The 787-10 can replace the 772 but it does lack the range to replace the 77E, so the A359 is indeed the only viable bird to replace the 777-200ER.
 
moyangmm
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:22 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:30 am

I feel the numbers in the tables included in the flightGlobal article are incorrect. AIrbus claims that only 251t A330-800neo flies 8150nm with ~250 seats. Yet this article says even 242t model can do so. Also the same error happens for A330-900neo. It should be 251t A339 that can fly 7200nm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... ifications
Last edited by moyangmm on Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3315
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:30 am

MSPNWA wrote:
It would not surprise me to see UA swap the A350s for A321s. It would match UA's desire to work on their domestic network. I don't see an A321 order straight up.

eamondzhang wrote:
When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.


Increasing the order is more of a formality. We don't know the details of the order. It very well could have been a change that makes it easier to convert the order to a different model. The fact that UA delayed the first delivery out to 2022 tells us they are in no hurry to get the A350 on the property, giving credence to the notion that UA will replace the widebody order. The one who talked about the A359 being a 772 replacement isn't even with UA anymore.


I struggle to see how increasing the A350 order would be a formality leading to an eventual swap to A321s. Why would UA have done that instead of simply swapping to A321s right away? I also struggle to see why they would order 737-10s if the had the intention to also order A321s. DL and AA ordered 737s and A321s at the same time so I guess it is possible. It just seems a little strange when the A359s are slotted perfectly to replace 777s when they hit 25-30 years old.


Sooner787 wrote:
I think UA let it leak out that they're talking to Airbus about A330NEOS
in order to score an even better deal for new 788's than AA got


UA ordered both the 787 and A350 in 2010. They increased the A350 order. They are also doubling their A319 fleet by purchasing used A319s from Chinese Airlines who no longer have use for them due to the need to upgauge due to slot constraints. United has made it very clear that they will take whatever plan is best for their network.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 7320
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:35 am

The problem for the A350 in the United fleet is that the 789, possibly with some 78X thrown in down the track, is a perfectly adequate 772 replacement.

While they keep changing the order, most recently to increase the order to 45 359s, everytime they do they defer the deliveries later and later. If Boeing was prepared to give them a killer deal on 50 789/78X + 20 788 + 50 MoM I would not be shocked to see UA walk away from the order even now with whatever penalties they would incur.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
User avatar
iahcsr
Posts: 4634
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 2:59 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:40 am

mcdu wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
How long does United have before the 787 slots start evaporating?


What slots are United holding that they aren’t taking? Would you possibly mean “options”? Those aren’t slots

IIRC options do come with a specific delivery timeframe window. If options are not converted to firm orders by an agreed date, that window closes. This suggests that slots are held for options which become available if said option(s) is not exercised. This may or may not be true in this case.. :scratchchin:
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
User avatar
ua900
Posts: 1508
Joined: Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:14 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:40 am

Has UA floated serious plans to replace PS 752s with 731s? IIRC they didn't allow for flat beds as easily as the 321s (which AA already successfully flies in their 3 cabin PS as the 321T) as the 737s. Has that changed?

The 339s seem a bit too big and too much range for UAs 763 replacement, but so are the 789s. I doubt they'll get more 788s or buying any 338s. Something around 40-45 frames for the A321 seems doable given the 41 TATL 752s, but the Boeing NMA seems like a better replacement for the PS 752s, the 753s and the 764s given the need for less range on the PS planes and the higher density on the latter two.
2018: AMS | ARN | CDG | DEN | DFW | EWR | FRA | GUM | HAM | HKG | HNL | IAH | LAX | MIA | MUC | ORD | RSW | SAL | SFO | SIN | TLV | TXL | VIE | ZRH
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 2757
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:50 am

OA940 wrote:
Umm. The 359 as an aircraft is meant exactly for a 772 replacement. The reason that the guy who said it isn't with the airline is because they found out who he was and booted him because they (understandably) don't appreciate their plans being leaked.


The previous CFO Steve Levy talking publicly about their changed A359 order was "leaking"??? I don't think you even knew who I was talking about.

L0VE2FLY wrote:
The 787-10 can replace the 772 but it does lack the range to replace the 77E, so the A359 is indeed the only viable bird to replace the 777-200ER.


There's far more than just the A359 that can replace the 772. I think people are still stuck in the rut of thinking airlines order direct 1 for 1 replacements with equal capacity. That line of strategy is long gone.

Newbiepilot wrote:
I struggle to see how increasing the A350 order would be a formality leading to an eventual swap to A321s. Why would UA have done that instead of simply swapping to A321s right away? I also struggle to see why they would order 737-10s if the had the intention to also order A321s. DL and AA ordered 737s and A321s at the same time so I guess it is possible. It just seems a little strange when the A359s are slotted perfectly to replace 777s when they hit 25-30 years old.


That's not what I mean by formality. The formality is the number of airplanes ordered. If UA is serious about not taking the A350s, what matters is the money and timeline of the order, not the number of airplanes. UA may or may not have sent more money to Airbus. We know they gave themselves much more time. It also would be expected that the A35J is going to cost UA more than the A359, meaning we shouldn't expect a change from 35 A35Js to 35 A359s without UA adding to their committed funds percentage, something they would want to avoid if serious about dropping the A350. UA could decide to replace 77s with practically anything when it's 5+ years away.

I can see UA holding off on the A321 for practical purposes. The 757s aren't needing replacement right this second. And with UA already having a large order of 737s coming for a few years, it could easily be beyond their capacity plans to add the A321 to the mix now. A few years away makes a lot of sense.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:52 am

MSPNWA wrote:
It would not surprise me to see UA swap the A350s for A321s. It would match UA's desire to work on their domestic network. I don't see an A321 order straight up.

eamondzhang wrote:
When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.


Increasing the order is more of a formality. We don't know the details of the order. It very well could have been a change that makes it easier to convert the order to a different model. The fact that UA delayed the first delivery out to 2022 tells us they are in no hurry to get the A350 on the property, giving credence to the notion that UA will replace the widebody order. The one who talked about the A359 being a 772 replacement isn't even with UA anymore.

I get you love your Boeing and absolutely hate Airbus to all extent, and not a UA fan. However there's no suitable alternative for UA in their fleet, got it? 789 lacks the capacity no matter how you try to put it up and 78J lacks the range as others mentioned. UA also has a huge 772 fleet for you to replace. Starting from 2022 means nothing especially if you try and place an A350 order now. If they like A321 and absolutely trashed A350 (like what exactly you have done), they could have swapped the order already or even cancelled it outright.

Move on, Boeing fan, be mature.

Michael
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 25675
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:56 am

Sooner787 wrote:
I think UA let it leak out that they're talking to Airbus about A330NEOS in order to score an even better deal for new 788's than AA got.


Boeing and Airbus are fully aware of each other's active campaigns. It's no secret that any airline management worth their paychecks constantly evaluate both OEMs products and when they issue an RFP, they invite both OEMs to respond.


GripenFan wrote:
To me it seems like a bit of a stretch that just because Airbus sent United essentially marketing material that somehow they’re in talks to buy these airplanes. I used to hold Flight Global in higher regard, but these days they seem to be more a mouthpiece for Airbus’s marketing department...


See above. FG notes as much in the article:

FlightGlobal understands that the specifications Airbus prepared for the airline are standard practice in major fleet campaigns. United has likely received similar documents from Boeing for the 737-10, 787-8 and proposed NMA.



ua900 wrote:
Has UA floated serious plans to replace PS 752s with 731s? IIRC they didn't allow for flat beds as easily as the 321s (which AA already successfully flies in their 3 cabin PS as the 321T) as the 737s. Has that changed?


The 737 and 757 cabins are identical in dimension so the current PS / Polaris seats will fit just as well. The A321 would just offer a bit wider aisle.
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3315
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:03 am

ua900 wrote:
Has UA floated serious plans to replace PS 752s with 731s? IIRC they didn't allow for flat beds as easily as the 321s (which AA already successfully flies in their 3 cabin PS as the 321T) as the 737s. Has that changed?

The 339s seem a bit too big and too much range for UAs 763 replacement, but so are the 789s. I doubt they'll get more 788s or buying any 338s. Something around 40-45 frames for the A321 seems doable given the 41 TATL 752s, but the Boeing NMA seems like a better replacement for the PS 752s, the 753s and the 764s given the need for less range on the PS planes and the higher density on the latter two.


FlyDubai has flat bed seats in their 737MAX. Both the A321 and 737 can fit flat bed business class seats.

Image

Image
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 25675
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:05 am

eamondzhang wrote:
789 lacks the capacity no matter how you try to put it up and 78J lacks the range as others mentioned.


The 787-9 has an identical cabin length to the 777-200 so it could arguably replace them (especially Version 2, which is still 3+3+3 in Economy).

UA went to 3+4+3 on Versions 3, 4 and 5 for the same reason most every other 777 operator did - to lower CASM. But the 787-9's CASM at 9-abreast is significantly better than the 777's at 10-abreast and lowering the Economy and Economy Plus seat count could help improve yields / RASM.

That being said, if UA wants to match capacity directly, then they need the A350-900 as the extra length over the 777-200 (and 787-9) allows it to keep the same number of overall Economy seats at 9-abreast as the 777 has at 10-abreast.
 
kevin5345179
Posts: 82
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:08 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:21 am

MSPNWA wrote:
It would not surprise me to see UA swap the A350s for A321s. It would match UA's desire to work on their domestic network. I don't see an A321 order straight up.


why would they do that ? they originally have A35K order to replace 744
however, Boeing offer 77W cheap with EOL price and that's why UA convert all the A35K to A359 for B772 replacement
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:02 am

Stitch wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
789 lacks the capacity no matter how you try to put it up and 78J lacks the range as others mentioned.


The 787-9 has an identical cabin length to the 777-200 so it could arguably replace them (especially Version 2, which is still 3+3+3 in Economy).

UA went to 3+4+3 on Versions 3, 4 and 5 for the same reason most every other 777 operator did - to lower CASM. But the 787-9's CASM at 9-abreast is significantly better than the 777's at 10-abreast and lowering the Economy and Economy Plus seat count could help improve yields / RASM.

That being said, if UA wants to match capacity directly, then they need the A350-900 as the extra length over the 777-200 (and 787-9) allows it to keep the same number of overall Economy seats at 9-abreast as the 777 has at 10-abreast.

That's my point. At 2022 no UA 777 will be in 3-3-3 config; thus if they need the capacity (as they indicated) 789 is too small and 78J range too short for the role.

Michael
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 2757
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:08 am

eamondzhang wrote:
That's my point. At 2022 no UA 777 will be in 3-3-3 config; thus if they need the capacity (as they indicated) 789 is too small and 78J range too short for the role.


You're hung up on the assumption that airlines order direct capacity replacements. I don't know if that was ever a legitimate strategy in the airline world, and it certainly isn't one we see often today. Also, the 78J has enough range for a majority of UA's current 772 routes.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:30 am

MSPNWA wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
That's my point. At 2022 no UA 777 will be in 3-3-3 config; thus if they need the capacity (as they indicated) 789 is too small and 78J range too short for the role.


You're hung up on the assumption that airlines order direct capacity replacements. I don't know if that was ever a legitimate strategy in the airline world, and it certainly isn't one we see often today. Also, the 78J has enough range for a majority of UA's current 772 routes.

Airlines still very much do direct capacity replacement especially in the case of UA where they're even growing the amount of seats. There's no use of making more seats available if you can't fill them, so why should they grow capacity only to shrink them five years on, as you would otherwise suggest? Also, try flying 78J EWR/ORD-Asia, especially those like PVG DEL and HKG.

What's your alternative plan, drop the route entirely because 78J can't fly them? Is that what you're trying to persuade?

Michael
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 25675
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:38 am

eamondzhang wrote:
That's my point. At 2022 no UA 777 will be in 3-3-3 config; thus if they need the capacity (as they indicated) 789 is too small...


UA did not increase capacity due to demand year-round. Their average international load factor is in the 80% range so outside of high-season, those extra 20-30 seats they added are empty.

The reason they went 10-abreast is the same reason almost every other 777 operator has done so - to lower the CASM by increasing the seats to counter the higher operating costs of today compared to a decade (or two decades) ago. But they only fill them part of the time and at times have to discount fares to generate that traffic. So moving to a "smaller" plane like the 787-9 might better match capacity to demand and reduce the need to discount fares to fill seats.

I'm not arguing the A350-900 has no place in UA's fleet. There will be missions where it's capacity or payload-range curve will be favorable over the 787-9. But it's not a given that every 777-200 route can only be replaced by an A350-900 - note that UA has replaced 777-200ERs with 787-9s on a number of core international routes, including services from their US hubs to Europe, Japan, Australia and Asia.

And let's be honest - UA has been all over the place with their A350 order. They started with the A350-900, then went to the A350-1000 and adding frames and now switching back to the A350-900 and adding even more frames and then deferring that for a half-decade. While that should not be construed as a sign of disinterest by UA in the type, it does seem to be a sign that UA continues to evaluate where the type could and would fit within it's operations.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 8626
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:17 am

iahcsr wrote:
mcdu wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
How long does United have before the 787 slots start evaporating?


What slots are United holding that they aren’t taking? Would you possibly mean “options”? Those aren’t slots

IIRC options do come with a specific delivery timeframe window. If options are not converted to firm orders by an agreed date, that window closes. This suggests that slots are held for options which become available if said option(s) is not exercised. This may or may not be true in this case.. :scratchchin:


I wasn’t talking about United options or delivery positions. I was talking about Boeing “slots” (delivery positions). With the several large orders and mou’s, I’m wondering if we’re getting to a point where UA needs to make a decision or risk losing the opportunity to get nearer term delivery positions.

MCDU, this wasn’t an attack on UA or question about their current 787 option positions.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3051
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:49 am

eamondzhang wrote:
727200 wrote:
I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.

When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.

Michael

The former mostly SCO management team tried to get rid of the A350 order but they couldn't. That airplane was ordered by 1 Glenn Tilton when he was CEO of United (before the Merger with Continental) . So to get rid of it? Airbus is going to have to supply some airplanes to United and right now? The A321 might well be the airplane that UA can effectively use. Especially in "off peak" markets where the B767's are deployed. Though? Since UAL has ALSO ordered the B737-10's?
Where might those "off peak" markets be??
 
User avatar
ZKNCL
Posts: 242
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:00 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:29 am

MSPNWA wrote:
Increasing the order is more of a formality. We don't know the details of the order. It very well could have been a change that makes it easier to convert the order to a different model. The fact that UA delayed the first delivery out to 2022 tells us they are in no hurry to get the A350 on the property, giving credence to the notion that UA will replace the widebody order. The one who talked about the A359 being a 772 replacement isn't even with UA anymore.


This is absurd. The deferral of the orders was due to the fact that the 772/77E are not in such a rush to be replaced as the 744 was (which is exactly what the A350 was originally ordered to replace). Also, there is no weight in the assumption that replacing a person in a position of power swaps the direction of the airline.

You have consistently mentioned that airlines do not necessarily do exact capacity replacements. However, the 772/77E fleet is large and also a considerable part of the network. Replacing them all with different role aircraft would be a logistical hassle to deal with. And I think you'll find that the most catered aircraft to many of those operations IS in fact a 772 or 359 sized aircraft. Upgrading all the routes outside of the 78J's range to a larger or smaller aircraft is not necessary when you:

A. Already have chosen a direct replacement for the bulk of the fleet
and
B. Perceive the routes towards being already catered for the current capacity without restrictions

ZKNCL
 
sadiqutp
Posts: 234
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:05 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:53 am

The passion of discussion regarding the UA and the A350s is always amusing .. searched my archive and found the part of presentation where UA are explaining the rational behind their incremental order of the A350s
https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/968941766782144515
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7570
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:04 am

It is a bit strange, this thread is about UA looking at the A321neo and A330neo. But posters discus that UA will not take a firm A350 order that has been upgraded from 25 frames to 35 frames and than to 45 frames. The logic behind that seems to be that UA will not buy Airbus frames, even if they ordered them. And we are here not talking about an old order taken over by buying or merging with another company, but a recently affirmed order.

Replacing the aged 757 and 767 at UA with A321neo and A330neo seems to quite a logical step. I still believe that you buy the A330neo for a lower price than the corresponding 787 and the A321neo is a no-brainer. Yes, there may be a 797 somewhere at the horizon, but up to now it is not even on paper.
 
juliuswong
Posts: 1055
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:46 am

sadiqutp wrote:
The passion of discussion regarding the UA and the A350s is always amusing .. searched my archive and found the part of presentation where UA are explaining the rational behind their incremental order of the A350s
https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/968941766782144515

Some posters just can't accept A350 presence in the USA. They were over the moon when AA killed their order, and now is trying their very best to argue A350 doesn't make sense for UA. Until fans for "Yes" and "No" camp are hired in UA fleet planning team, we can treat all argument from both sides thus far are mere forum opinions, not professional ones.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
boilerla
Posts: 406
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:30 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:44 am

UA deferred the 35J->359 order to preserve capital. But they also ordered a bunch of 737-10, and are "very interested" (as quoted in multiple places) in the NOM. So I can see most people assuming that UA is very "meh" on the 350 order.

UA had quite a few options for 787s but they got converted into actual 77W and 78J orders. Anybody know how many options UA has left? I know UA had very preferential pricing when they placed the 787 so if they have options left it may be better to use them to order more 788s and 789s.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7570
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:10 pm

boilerla wrote:
UA deferred the 35J->359 order to preserve capital. But they also ordered a bunch of 737-10, and are "very interested" (as quoted in multiple places) in the NOM. So I can see most people assuming that UA is very "meh" on the 350 order.

UA had quite a few options for 787s but they got converted into actual 77W and 78J orders. Anybody know how many options UA has left? I know UA had very preferential pricing when they placed the 787 so if they have options left it may be better to use them to order more 788s and 789s.


Ordering narrow bodies has nothing to do with moving deliveries of some wide bodies. It will anyway be a while until UA will see the 737-10. The 737-10 will not influence near term CAPEX.

Most airlines are interested in the 797, but if build, EIS about 2028 and than a production ramp up. That means serious numbers of frames in about 2030. If you need something before that you have to order something else. The 797, if it will ever be build, can than do the next replacement cycle. Airlines can be interested in a frame without ever ordering it.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 8604
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:43 pm

Is there actually anything new or interesting in this article? As far as I can tell it just says Airbus sent UA detailed A321/A330neo specs tailored to their needs back in March/April. Which duh, that is what Boeing and Airbus do in response to RFPs. It tells us nothing about where UA’s head is at now, or whether a decision is emminent. It is just a fluff piece to get more clicks and make it look like something is happening in aviation this week (week before air show is normally slow, although Airbus changed that this year with A222). Might as well go and reread the 5 other threads we have had on this discussion.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7570
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:22 pm

Polot wrote:
Is there actually anything new or interesting in this article? As far as I can tell it just says Airbus sent UA detailed A321/A330neo specs tailored to their needs back in March/April. Which duh, that is what Boeing and Airbus do in response to RFPs. It tells us nothing about where UA’s head is at now, or whether a decision is emminent. It is just a fluff piece to get more clicks and make it look like something is happening in aviation this week (week before air show is normally slow, although Airbus changed that this year with A222). Might as well go and reread the 5 other threads we have had on this discussion.


It is at least more news behind it than, UA will never take the ordered A350

UA and Airbus are talking. UA has stated its requirements and Airbus has made a proposal geared to this requirements. Yes, the normal way those discussions are conducted. If UA would be completely uninterested in the A321neo and/or A330neo, this talks would not happen.
It is made a lot of wind around airlines being interested in the 797 and that without clearly announced capabilities of that model.
 
User avatar
Continental767
Posts: 135
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:35 pm

Isn’t this just Airbus pitching their portfolio to United? I’m sure Boeing is doing the same. I’m surprised it’s only happening now.
Indianapolis.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 8604
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:39 pm

Continental767 wrote:
I’m surprised it’s only happening now.

It’s not. According to the article it was first pitched in March or April.

Honestly we don’t know if serious talks are continuing with Airbus or not. The article provides no evidence either way. It just confirms that Airbus responded to the RFP this past spring which we all knew they would.
 
nmdrdh787
Posts: 185
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:39 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:12 pm

OA940 wrote:

Umm. The 359 as an aircraft is meant exactly for a 772 replacement. The reason that the guy who said it isn't with the airline is because they found out who he was and booted him because they (understandably) don't appreciate their plans being leaked.


I'm curious what happened, as I have seen people from UA taking their final walk out of the tower recently.

seahawk wrote:
This like like BA and Airbus talking about A380s - no order will come from this.


Got something you want to share with the class? We don't know this unless you are directly involved with the fleet planning.

MSPNWA wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Umm. The 359 as an aircraft is meant exactly for a 772 replacement. The reason that the guy who said it isn't with the airline is because they found out who he was and booted him because they (understandably) don't appreciate their plans being leaked.


The previous CFO Steve Levy talking publicly about their changed A359 order was "leaking"??? I don't think you even knew who I was talking about.

L0VE2FLY wrote:
The 787-10 can replace the 772 but it does lack the range to replace the 77E, so the A359 is indeed the only viable bird to replace the 777-200ER.


There's far more than just the A359 that can replace the 772. I think people are still stuck in the rut of thinking airlines order direct 1 for 1 replacements with equal capacity. That line of strategy is long gone.

Newbiepilot wrote:
I struggle to see how increasing the A350 order would be a formality leading to an eventual swap to A321s. Why would UA have done that instead of simply swapping to A321s right away? I also struggle to see why they would order 737-10s if the had the intention to also order A321s. DL and AA ordered 737s and A321s at the same time so I guess it is possible. It just seems a little strange when the A359s are slotted perfectly to replace 777s when they hit 25-30 years old.


That's not what I mean by formality. The formality is the number of airplanes ordered. If UA is serious about not taking the A350s, what matters is the money and timeline of the order, not the number of airplanes. UA may or may not have sent more money to Airbus. We know they gave themselves much more time. It also would be expected that the A35J is going to cost UA more than the A359, meaning we shouldn't expect a change from 35 A35Js to 35 A359s without UA adding to their committed funds percentage, something they would want to avoid if serious about dropping the A350. UA could decide to replace 77s with practically anything when it's 5+ years away.

I can see UA holding off on the A321 for practical purposes. The 757s aren't needing replacement right this second. And with UA already having a large order of 737s coming for a few years, it could easily be beyond their capacity plans to add the A321 to the mix now. A few years away makes a lot of sense.


I'm curious about this claimed leaking also.
 
Coalways
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:39 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330i

Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:42 pm

The A321LR would fit perfect in the UA fleet! Hopefully this comes to fruition!
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1553
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:14 pm

Polot wrote:
Continental767 wrote:
I’m surprised it’s only happening now.

It’s not. According to the article it was first pitched in March or April.

Honestly we don’t know if serious talks are continuing with Airbus or not. The article provides no evidence either way. It just confirms that Airbus responded to the RFP this past spring which we all knew they would.



We seem to have posters stating both Airbus and Boeing are in touch with airlines on what their aircraft can provide to airlines all the time. So it should be no surprise that Airbus has been in touch with UA about the A321LR and A330neo as well as their other products. What is interesting is that the story is being reported that they are in talks about two specific models. This seems to be how potential sales usually starts, we had it with Hawaiian Airlines and the 787 as well and the same replies were given that Boeing would be in touch with the airline to let them know what they can offer. In that case it turned into something concrete, we will have to wait and see if the same happens here.
 
77H
Posts: 1129
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:27 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:22 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
727200 wrote:
I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.

When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.

Michael

The former mostly SCO management team tried to get rid of the A350 order but they couldn't. That airplane was ordered by 1 Glenn Tilton when he was CEO of United (before the Merger with Continental) . So to get rid of it? Airbus is going to have to supply some airplanes to United and right now? The A321 might well be the airplane that UA can effectively use. Especially in "off peak" markets where the B767's are deployed. Though? Since UAL has ALSO ordered the B737-10's?
Where might those "off peak" markets be??


I too think there is a spot in the fleet for the 21N/LR at UA. EWR-LAX/SFO PS, EWR/IAD/ORD-Thin TATL, IAH-Thin LatAm, LAX/SFO-Hawaii, DEN-Outer-Island Hawaii to name a few network segments the 21N/LR could be deployed.

DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG are currently operated daily/365 by the 752. Does the 7M9/7MX have the performance capabilities to operate those routes considering DEN’s field elevation and the short runways at OGG and LIH? I know the 7M9 is planned to operate out of OGG later this year but only to the WC, DEN is a completely different proposition. I can’t imagine UA would drop those routes once the 752 fleet is drawn down nor do I see UA operating WB equipment. Will the 752 fleet last until the proposed 797 enters service?

Additionally, is UA locked into taking the MAX10 specifically or do they have the option to convert to a different variant? If UA warms to the 21N/LR it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable for UA to take the 321 as their large narrow body and convert the MAX10 order to the MAX8/9.

77H
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2891
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:35 pm

Problem for Airbus and the United order. Airbus keep enhancing A350 and A330NEO capability, and United will know there is already at least one more performance upgrade for the NEO still to be announced.

So now instead of A35X and more recently A359, an A339 or A338 quite probably meets 90% of UA's requirements.

From UA's perspective, uncertainty, further assisted by the downturn in WB demand, creates an opportunity for re-pricing existing contracts and completely new deals. Airbus probably pricing to take out 787's at X years, and Boeing to pay out the A359 order.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:54 am

77H wrote:
DEN-KOA/LIH/OGG are currently operated daily/365 by the 752. Does the 7M9/7MX have the performance capabilities to operate those routes considering DEN’s field elevation and the short runways at OGG and LIH? I know the 7M9 is planned to operate out of OGG later this year but only to the WC, DEN is a completely different proposition. I can’t imagine UA would drop those routes once the 752 fleet is drawn down nor do I see UA operating WB equipment. Will the 752 fleet last until the proposed 797 enters service?
77H

Considering China Eastern is complaining that 7M8 is taking a payload hit out of KMG flying shorter routes than DEN-Hawaii I would doubt 7M9/7MX have the performance; although DEN sits in a fair bit lower altitude than KMG has.

Michael
 
User avatar
CALTECH
Posts: 3078
Joined: Thu May 17, 2007 4:21 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:24 am

iahcsr wrote:
IIRC options do come with a specific delivery timeframe window. If options are not converted to orders by an agreed date, that window closes. This suggests that slots are held for options which become available if said option(s) is not exercised. This may or may not be true in this case.. :scratchchin:


As mentioned at the time just after the increase in the A350 order, the increase happened because if the deliveries weren't set at that time, a penalty kicked in. By turning options into orders, it was able to kick the can waaaay down the street as the conversion of those options allowed a deferral of the delivery start date. There are a lot of rumors concerning the A350 order,
The gun is a precious Symbol of Freedom
Criminals are the deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence of tyrants who disarm their citizens
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3051
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:35 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
The problem for the A350 in the United fleet is that the 789, possibly with some 78X thrown in down the track, is a perfectly adequate 772 replacement.

While they keep changing the order, most recently to increase the order to 45 359s, everytime they do they defer the deliveries later and later. If Boeing was prepared to give them a killer deal on 50 789/78X + 20 788 + 50 MoM I would not be shocked to see UA walk away from the order even now with whatever penalties they would incur.

The problem IS? They would have to justify that to the BOD and I don't think they can. However. Since United already flies over 155 A320/A319's the A321 would Not be any stretch to flight ops nor maintenance. Especially if they came equipped with CFM or V2500 engines since we fly AND maintain them BOTH.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3051
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:12 am

I personally do not think United would take the A330's as I don't think they want the A350's. And I say this not because of the airframe, but because of the Rolls Engines installed on them. Even if they got the airplane? There would be mismatched engines all over the place unless the airplanes could be ordered with the Big Pratt and Whitney PW4000 series engines on them (which I doubt) We could support ANY engine in our shops so it is NOT beyond reason that we would take the A350 or A330 with the Rolls engines installed.
 
User avatar
FlightLevel360
Posts: 265
Joined: Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:32 am

strfyr51 wrote:
I personally do not think United would take the A330's as I don't think they want the A350's. And I say this not because of the airframe, but because of the Rolls Engines installed on them. Even if they got the airplane? There would be mismatched engines all over the place unless the airplanes could be ordered with the Big Pratt and Whitney PW4000 series engines on them (which I doubt) We could support ANY engine in our shops so it is NOT beyond reason that we would take the A350 or A330 with the Rolls engines installed.


The majority of the 752/3 fleet has Rolls-Royce RB-211 engines. I do not see a problem with United maintaining any of them.

Personally I do think they will go with the A350 because it's basically a one-for-one replacement for the 772ERs. They could also take a few low MTOW birds to cover the 19 domestic 772As. I don't think they will take any A330/A330N because I remember somewhere one reason why United chose the 777 over the A330/A340 was that someone hit their head on the ceiling while touring the plane. The A321N I am not so sure about. It depends on whether United is patient enough to wait an extra 4-5 years for the 797 or not.
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 6089
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Airbus and United continue talks on 321LR/330

Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:37 am

strfyr51 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
727200 wrote:
I'm thinking it could be more along the lines of 321's for the 350's. Especially since the scuttlebutt is UA not particularly impressed with the 350 and where it would fit in their fleet.

When UA has clearly positioned A350 as an 772 replacement (I think it was even mentioned in the press release) and even increased the order for the role? Lol.

Michael

The former mostly SCO management team tried to get rid of the A350 order but they couldn't. That airplane was ordered by 1 Glenn Tilton when he was CEO of United (before the Merger with Continental) . So to get rid of it? Airbus is going to have to supply some airplanes to United and right now? The A321 might well be the airplane that UA can effectively use. Especially in "off peak" markets where the B767's are deployed. Though? Since UAL has ALSO ordered the B737-10's?
Where might those "off peak" markets be??

As of right now, UA has no aircraft smaller than a 739 on order. Maybe they can convert the A350 to A320neo?
Sooner787 wrote:
I think UA let it leak out that they're talking to Airbus about A330NEOS
in order to score an even better deal for new 788's than AA got

I venture to say a good deal on the 797, but I do believe they need need a few more 788.
Stitch wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
789 lacks the capacity no matter how you try to put it up and 78J lacks the range as others mentioned.


The 787-9 has an identical cabin length to the 777-200 so it could arguably replace them (especially Version 2, which is still 3+3+3 in Economy).

UA went to 3+4+3 on Versions 3, 4 and 5 for the same reason most every other 777 operator did - to lower CASM. But the 787-9's CASM at 9-abreast is significantly better than the 777's at 10-abreast and lowering the Economy and Economy Plus seat count could help improve yields / RASM.

That being said, if UA wants to match capacity directly, then they need the A350-900 as the extra length over the 777-200 (and 787-9) allows it to keep the same number of overall Economy seats at 9-abreast as the 777 has at 10-abreast.

If they really wanted to, which they won't, they could go for the 778.
You know all is right is the world when the only thing people worry about is if the president had sex with a pornstar.


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos