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What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sat Mar 09, 2002 11:48 pm

Hi everyone,
I'm writing this topic because I think Airbus Industries should start thinking of a future replacement of it's A32X. The first A320 entered service 14 years ago already. South African Airways just placed an order with Airbus consisting of A340-600's and A319/320's to be delivered within the next 8 years or so. Then I thaught, much longer will Airbus continue to build the A320? SAA may take delivery of the last A320 to come out of the Toulouse factory, it's possible. Will that one still be in production after 2010? I don't know. I don't think you would know unless you work for Airbus or an ailrine operating a large number of A320's. However, I do think it will be out of production before 2020.
The A320 is still young, but it will be an old plane next decade. Before the end of this decade, the airlines will be looking for new aircraft to gradually replace the A32X's. It was already in the early 1980's that Airbus thaught of the A320. Maybe Airbus will announce an A350, who knows?

Ben Soriano
Brussels Belgium
Ben Soriano
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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sun Mar 10, 2002 12:06 am

Ben, prepare for a launch of the A32XNG around 2006/7. They will incorporate FBL (Fly-By-Light), a new cockpit layout similar to the A340-500/600s plus modifications of the wings and some other upgrades. Maybe new engines, potentially the PW 8000 series, an updated V2500 and the updated CFM56 (with the TECH56 upgardes).

Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sun Mar 10, 2002 12:33 am

I agree -- the basic A320 is an excellent airframe and I see the future 100-200 seater building on this frame with new technologies, such as engine, avionics, flight controls, etc.

In addition to FBL, I expect increased use of electric and electro-hydrostatic actuators (EHA's) and integrated actuator packages (IAP's) replacing current servo-actuators for primary flight controls. These technologies would migrate down from the A380, so they may arrive toward the tail end of your 10-year horizon.

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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sun Mar 10, 2002 12:40 am

The 737 has been around for over 30 years, and will be around for many years to come, so i see no reason why the A320 family should disappear in the next 10 years. Having said that, i expect Airbus to come up with some sort of upgrade to the A320 family, maybe with new engines, upgraded avionics, and better fuel conmsumption rates.

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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sun Mar 10, 2002 12:55 am

What will replace the A320? The 737ENG - even newer generation  Big grin

Seriously, I don't really expect ANY manufacturer to bring out completely new replacement designs. Upgrades, possibly. New designs? Only if Embraer or Dornier should be foolish enough to try and enter that market...

Neither Boeing nor Airbus seem likely to waste money on replacing something that works perfectly fine, and is still efficient by any standards.


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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sun Mar 10, 2002 12:59 am

Evolution instead of revolution is indeed the name of the game.
And both Embraer and Dornier seem to be headed into the 737/A320 market. The Do928 and ERJ-170 look a lot like a 737-600 or A318 and are not a lot smaller.
As Boeing and Airbus are probing towards the regionals with their ever smaller types, the manufacturers of RJs are probing upwards with their larger types.
In the end, it is the airlines that are better off with a larger choice of aircraft leading to lower purchase prices (and thus either higher profits or lower ticket prices). Someone might go under in this battle of course, if they gamble on the wrong horse in their aircraft program.
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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Sun Mar 10, 2002 6:32 am

I see no reason for scrapping the A320 or B737 faimly of aircraft. Their current development is clearly based on priliminary models of these respective aircraft producers. Aeronautical engineers have substancially improved the effects of aircraft inefficiency, such as wing design and drag. The only real-time possibility of improvement would rely on producing these planes using new mixtures of metals/elements that would be proven safe, but yet less expensive.

The B707 and DC8 were short lived since drastic improvements to technology took place, at that time. Do you people think that newer generation aircraft will be longer lasting than aircraft produced in earlier decades? Other than metal fatigue, are there other major reasons why an aircraft should be taken out of commercial service?
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RE: What Will Replace The A320 Next Decade?

Mon Mar 11, 2002 5:39 am

I think the 707 and DC-8 were not that long-lived because advances in engine technology made it possible to have planes that could seat as many as those found on the older jets but do it with only two engines.

Indeed, the success of the 757-200 was based on the fact it ended up being a true 707/DC-8 replacement even on transatlantic flights.

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