tkoenig95
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HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:46 pm

Hawaiian Airlines announced the order for 10 789s and purchase right for 10 additional, replacing the original order for the A339. Now that the airline is scaling back 767 operations and utilizing the incoming A321neo fleet for US West Coast, where can we find the 789 flying once it enters service in 2021?

First destinations coming to mind are second-tier cities in Australia like ADL, DRW, PER and the obvious MEL. Asia possibilities could extend to BKK, HAN and KUL. Could we even see more expansion on the US East Coast for cities such as ATL, BOS or MIA?

Obviously Hawaiian wanted to boost capacity and network operations with the Dreamliner fleet, so here's to the second act of a new chapter for HA!
 
c933103
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:49 pm

Europe have been stated and I personal think South America might be possible for them with 787.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:00 pm

Will the 789 take a payload hit out of OGG? Runway length is an issue, though the near-constant headwinds help.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:03 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Will the 789 take a payload hit out of OGG? Runway length is an issue, though the near-constant headwinds help.

There are currently no custom facilities at OGG so TPAC flights would need that to start with.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:03 pm

I think you're not going to be seeing most of the 789s pushing the range envelope at first. At first they will take over where their capacity is needed, which is on the largest Hawaii-West Coast routes. If HA opens new Asia/Ocenia/North America routes, I'd expect to see that happening on the 332 or even the 321N where range allows. The only plausible new market where 789 range might be required is LHR.
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:04 pm

seabosdca wrote:
The only plausible new market where 789 range might be required is LHR.

And HKG which has been talked about since the dawn of time.
 
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Polot
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:04 pm

My guess is farther Asian trunk cities plus their European dream. I doubt you are going to see them at many 2nd tier cities (remember this plane is larger than the A332s and HA has a denser than typical configuration) and at many US cities (A332s can handle those).
 
Cubsrule
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:13 pm

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Will the 789 take a payload hit out of OGG? Runway length is an issue, though the near-constant headwinds help.

There are currently no custom facilities at OGG so TPAC flights would need that to start with.


Correct, but there are 332 routes ex-OGG and many of the routes discussed here are within 332 range, so I was thinking more of substituting in and maybe even opening up some new possibilities in the Us or Canada.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jplatts
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:37 pm

HA could add HNL-DFW nonstop service in order to better compete against AA and WN (who might possibly add 1-stop direct flights with no change of planes between HNL and DAL) on the HNL-DFW/DAL route. DFW is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

Similarly, HA could add HNL-IAH nonstop service in order to better compete against UA and WN on the HNL-IAH/HOU route, and IAH is also located in the 2nd largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

In addition to DFW and IAH, HA could also add IAH-IAD nonstop service since UA is currently the only airline to serve Hawaii nonstop from IAD. There is also no nonstop service to Hawaii from DCA or BWI, and HA doesn't have any beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that would allow HA to serve HNL nonstop from DCA. IAD is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area on the East Coast that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline. There is also government travel between HNL and IAD since Honolulu is located in the capital city of Hawaii, since there are U.S. military bases in the Honolulu area, and since all 4 of the members of Congress representing Hawaii have congressional offices in the Honolulu area.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:40 pm

jplatts wrote:
HA could add HNL-DFW nonstop service in order to better compete against AA and WN (who might possibly add 1-stop direct flights with no change of planes between HNL and DAL) on the HNL-DFW/DAL route. DFW is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

Similarly, HA could add HNL-IAH nonstop service in order to better compete against UA and WN on the HNL-IAH/HOU route, and IAH is also located in the 2nd largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

In addition to DFW and IAH, HA could also add IAH-IAD nonstop service since UA is currently the only airline to serve Hawaii nonstop from IAD. There is also no nonstop service to Hawaii from DCA or BWI, and HA doesn't have any beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that would allow HA to serve HNL nonstop from DCA. IAD is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area on the East Coast that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline. There is also government travel between HNL and IAD since Honolulu is located in the capital city of Hawaii, since there are U.S. military bases in the Honolulu area, and since all 4 of the members of Congress representing Hawaii have congressional offices in the Honolulu area.


Your post doesn’t account for the fact that Hawaii demand drops off a cliff once you get west of Interstate 25 or so.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MIflyer12
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:52 pm

tkoenig95 wrote:
Hawaiian Airlines announced the order for 10 789s and purchase right for 10 additional, replacing the original order for the A339. Now that the airline is scaling back 767 operations and utilizing the incoming A321neo fleet for US West Coast, where can we find the 789 flying once it enters service in 2021?

First destinations coming to mind are second-tier cities in Australia like ADL, DRW, PER and the obvious MEL. Asia possibilities could extend to BKK, HAN and KUL. Could we even see more expansion on the US East Coast for cities such as ATL, BOS or MIA?

Obviously Hawaiian wanted to boost capacity and network operations with the Dreamliner fleet, so here's to the second act of a new chapter for HA!


Adelaide and Darwin? Did you fall and bump your head...
 
WPvsMW
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:00 pm

HA fleet and network planners knew where the 789s would fly (at least initially) before they bought the 789s.
IMO, scissor hub in HNL from S.Am. to NE Asia is a gold mine. Free layover in HNL... who from S.Am. would transit LAX any more?
Through in some HCVB incentive money. Package deal on interisland flying, cars, and hotels.

The weakest parts of HA's ops, which must be improved to support growth, are: WAY overcrowded checkin, the wiki bus to the far reaches of the Ewa Concourse, and lost/delayed bags.

The HNL/LHR dream... .as of 2010. https://beatofhawaii.com/cracking-the-u ... ii-market/
 
Password
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:09 pm

I think SCL is plausible, the surfing industry is growing faster than pretty much any sport on the planet. Chile and Brazil have some of the largest professional surfing communities in the world and with the epicenter of the industry being HNL. Lot of company traffic involved with surfing (sponsors bringing gear, and executives), not to mention photographers, fans, and amateurs, etc. Also try and find out how much it costs to ship a single surfboard (fyi its a lot, pro surfers often bring 3-5 boards for a contest). Also it may jumpstart the S. America - Hawaii tourism industry, who knows. Best part about is it that the surfing season is in winter so in Hawaiis winter youd see demand TO Hawaii, and in Hawaiis summer youd see Hawaiians going to S. America.

On the same note DPS is also possible. I know a great deal of people who make the trip frequently and it often takes 3-4 legs from HNL.

Possible??? Maybe, imo
 
jpetekyxmd80
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:15 pm

They didn't buy a larger airplane to fly to Adelaide and Darwin.... I'd bet the 789 is first on HND/SYD/JFK/LAX. Stuff like that. I do expect they will try the foray into Europe at some point.
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777PHX
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:27 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
HA fleet and network planners knew where the 789s would fly (at least initially) before they bought the 789s.
IMO, scissor hub in HNL from S.Am. to NE Asia is a gold mine. Free layover in HNL... who from S.Am. would transit LAX any more?
Through in some HCVB incentive money. Package deal on interisland flying, cars, and hotels.


I'd be shocked if there were enough Asia bound traffic coming out of South America to justify HA building a hub for it.
 
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NickolayAv
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:30 pm

I would love to see 789s to open some A332s that could start service to BOS.
"If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline"-Richard Branson
 
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cathay747
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:36 pm

jplatts wrote:
HA could add HNL-DFW nonstop service in order to better compete against AA and WN (who might possibly add 1-stop direct flights with no change of planes between HNL and DAL) on the HNL-DFW/DAL route. DFW is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

Similarly, HA could add HNL-IAH nonstop service in order to better compete against UA and WN on the HNL-IAH/HOU route, and IAH is also located in the 2nd largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

In addition to DFW and IAH, HA could also add IAH-IAD nonstop service since UA is currently the only airline to serve Hawaii nonstop from IAD. There is also no nonstop service to Hawaii from DCA or BWI, and HA doesn't have any beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that would allow HA to serve HNL nonstop from DCA. IAD is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area on the East Coast that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline. There is also government travel between HNL and IAD since Honolulu is located in the capital city of Hawaii, since there are U.S. military bases in the Honolulu area, and since all 4 of the members of Congress representing Hawaii have congressional offices in the Honolulu area.


DFW isn't going to happen; no way HA is going to go up against AA with their 2 daily year-round nonstops. AA has what market there is covered.

Same thing with IAH...what the market can support, UA has it covered.

In both cases, HA would have no feed and therefore have to rely totally on O&D traffic which is already served; and WN is no potential competitive threat since as you correctly point out would have to be 1-stop service.

IAD isn't going to happen...it can't even support a daily nonstop by UA much less another carrier; and again, HA would have no feed to help fill it up.

DCA...are you kidding? Nonstop to HNL??? Dude...whatever you're smoking, pass me some!

I suppose BWI could be small possibility. No existing nonstop, large catchment area extending up into PA and the Eastern Shore of MD. Although I think PHL would be more likely, which also does not have an existing nonstop.

And that's a key issue I don't think you understand. As another poster replied above...demand for travel to Hawaii seriously erodes east of the Rockies...it's less and less the further east you go. You repeatedly say "nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline"...well, there's a reason for that. The market can't support more than one airline. Lots of people would love to HA serve their city to give them a much nicer choice to the Big 3, but market realities kill the idea.
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cathay747
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:43 pm

777PHX wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
HA fleet and network planners knew where the 789s would fly (at least initially) before they bought the 789s.
IMO, scissor hub in HNL from S.Am. to NE Asia is a gold mine. Free layover in HNL... who from S.Am. would transit LAX any more?
Through in some HCVB incentive money. Package deal on interisland flying, cars, and hotels.


I'd be shocked if there were enough Asia bound traffic coming out of South America to justify HA building a hub for it.


Agreed. Nor do I imagine there's any real market for South America just to/from Hawaii. People in South America have places they can go to if they want a beach destination that are a hell of a lot closer than Hawaii; same reasoning why U.S. East Coast is such a thin market...the Caribbean is MUCH closer, and cheaper (in terms of airfares).

What comes to my mind as a couple possible destinations once they get the 789's are:

> restart MNL...the far-superior economics of the 789 vs. the 763ER they did it with before might make it profitable
> Europe...even former CEO Dunkerly mentioned Europe once or twice...I could see 2x weekly to LGW and maybe 2x weekly to FRA as well
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cathay747
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:45 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
I would love to see 789s to open some A332s that could start service to BOS.


Hmmmm...yeah, maybe BOS, but if so, then not PHL/BWI as I mentioned in my post above...one or the other, not both/all.
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seabosdca
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:48 pm

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
And HKG which has been talked about since the dawn of time.


The 332 can handle HNL-HKG without issue.

The 789 will only open new routes if it's the only thing in the fleet that can fly them. Otherwise it will be better used on existing routes that could use more capacity without a big increase in operating cost. As boring as it is, that means LAX/SFO/SEA/LAS.
 
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cathay747
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:48 pm

jpetekyxmd80 wrote:
They didn't buy a larger airplane to fly to Adelaide and Darwin.... I'd bet the 789 is first on HND/SYD/JFK/LAX. Stuff like that. I do expect they will try the foray into Europe at some point.


Exactly...if there was a market for nonstops to HNL from either ADL or DRW, JetStar would already be doing it with their own 787's. And yes, possibly on some existing routes like you said, because by 2021, a few of their earliest 332's may be coming off lease. I think some of the 789's they've ordered are intended as replacements for a few 332's.
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cathay747
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:50 pm

seabosdca wrote:
hkcanadaexpat wrote:
And HKG which has been talked about since the dawn of time.


The 332 can handle HNL-HKG without issue.

The 789 will only open new routes if it's the only thing in the fleet that can fly them. Otherwise it will be better used on existing routes that could use more capacity without a big increase in operating cost. As boring as it is, that means LAX/SFO/SEA/LAS.


I largely agree with you. And I have my doubts about HKG...with their planned JV with JL, they'll have HKG covered via TYO.
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eamondzhang
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:15 am

cathay747 wrote:

> restart MNL...the far-superior economics of the 789 vs. the 763ER they did it with before might make it profitable
> Europe...even former CEO Dunkerly mentioned Europe once or twice...I could see 2x weekly to LGW and maybe 2x weekly to FRA as well

If you can't fill a paid off 763ER profitably no way you can fill a much large 789 profitably, not to mention the capital costs associated even though the trip costs might be lower.

2x weekly is also a recipe for disaster IMHO; they need at least 3x weekly to make it attractive. 2x weekly is also a crewing nightmare to begin with.

Michael
 
tkoenig95
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:56 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
tkoenig95 wrote:
Hawaiian Airlines announced the order for 10 789s and purchase right for 10 additional, replacing the original order for the A339. Now that the airline is scaling back 767 operations and utilizing the incoming A321neo fleet for US West Coast, where can we find the 789 flying once it enters service in 2021?

First destinations coming to mind are second-tier cities in Australia like ADL, DRW, PER and the obvious MEL. Asia possibilities could extend to BKK, HAN and KUL. Could we even see more expansion on the US East Coast for cities such as ATL, BOS or MIA?

Obviously Hawaiian wanted to boost capacity and network operations with the Dreamliner fleet, so here's to the second act of a new chapter for HA!


Adelaide and Darwin? Did you fall and bump your head...


Ah, you're right! I did fall and bump my head. Silly me, I should stop dreaming for more Pacific connection to smaller parts of Australia.
 
32andBelow
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:14 am

How does HA not fly to ANC? Why they let alaska have this market all alone?
 
kriskim
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:17 am

HA keeps on saying that they are interested in MEL but nothing comes of it, so I won't be holding my breath seeing them fly HNL-MEL once the 787's arrive. They should probably get in before other carriers get more aggressive in the MEL-Nth America market.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:26 am

seabosdca wrote:
hkcanadaexpat wrote:
And HKG which has been talked about since the dawn of time.


The 332 can handle HNL-HKG without issue.

The 789 will only open new routes if it's the only thing in the fleet that can fly them. Otherwise it will be better used on existing routes that could use more capacity without a big increase in operating cost. As boring as it is, that means LAX/SFO/SEA/LAS.


Add on about HKG - if there's that big of a market, you would see an airline like HX started that route with their 332 by now (Doesn't have to be daily, HX can always starts off at something like 3/wk). But nope, not even HX is biting.

IMHO one of the thing that really hurt Hawaii ex-HKG is the US Visa issue. Even though approval rate for HKer is high, simply making somebody getting a tourist visa create a perception that they are unwelcome at the country. End result? Why bother when there are other beaches in the like of Thailand, or if they want to go further, Maldives (Both are fairly popular beach destination for HKer).
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:48 am

Password wrote:
On the same note DPS is also possible. I know a great deal of people who make the trip frequently and it often takes 3-4 legs from HNL

I don't know in what universe they live in but HNL-NRT-DPS, HNL-HND-DPS, HNL-ICN-DPS and HNL-TPE-DPS are easily achieved without much stress and at cheap rates too.
 
gabep
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:16 am

Cubsrule wrote:
jplatts wrote:
HA could add HNL-DFW nonstop service in order to better compete against AA and WN (who might possibly add 1-stop direct flights with no change of planes between HNL and DAL) on the HNL-DFW/DAL route. DFW is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

Similarly, HA could add HNL-IAH nonstop service in order to better compete against UA and WN on the HNL-IAH/HOU route, and IAH is also located in the 2nd largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

In addition to DFW and IAH, HA could also add IAH-IAD nonstop service since UA is currently the only airline to serve Hawaii nonstop from IAD. There is also no nonstop service to Hawaii from DCA or BWI, and HA doesn't have any beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that would allow HA to serve HNL nonstop from DCA. IAD is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area on the East Coast that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline. There is also government travel between HNL and IAD since Honolulu is located in the capital city of Hawaii, since there are U.S. military bases in the Honolulu area, and since all 4 of the members of Congress representing Hawaii have congressional offices in the Honolulu area.


Your post doesn’t account for the fact that Hawaii demand drops off a cliff once you get west of Interstate 25 or so.


Your post doesn’t account for the fact that you mean east of Interstate 25.

gabep
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:16 am

CHC could be a possibility aswell at some point, easily done by an A332 obviously.

PER gets the odd mention aswell, I’m not sure how likely that is myself. MEL seems certain at some point.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:17 am

777PHX wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
HA fleet and network planners knew where the 789s would fly (at least initially) before they bought the 789s.
IMO, scissor hub in HNL from S.Am. to NE Asia is a gold mine. Free layover in HNL... who from S.Am. would transit LAX any more?
Through in some HCVB incentive money. Package deal on interisland flying, cars, and hotels.


I'd be shocked if there were enough Asia bound traffic coming out of South America to justify HA building a hub for it.


HA already has a hub: HNL. The attraction is monopoly routes. What operator wouldn't love to add monopoly routes, e.g., HNL/LGW, HNL/CDG, HNL/AMS, HNL/EZE, HNL/SCL, etc.?
 
WPvsMW
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:28 am

cathay747 wrote:
Nor do I imagine there's any real market for South America just to/from Hawaii. People in South America have places they can go to if they want a beach destination that are a hell of a lot closer than Hawaii; same reasoning why U.S. East Coast is such a thin market...the Caribbean is MUCH closer, and cheaper (in terms of airfares).


You missed the point of a scissor hub. DXB:India&Europe::HNL:S.Am.&Asia.
There is is traditional demand, e.g., BJA (Brazilians of Japanese Ancestry), and there is existing traffic on one-stops via LAX. The one-stop traffic would transit HNL instead of LAX. Layovers, and Hawaii as a destination, is icing on the cake.

I am not proposing the new routes from S.Am. promote Hawaii as the destination, but Asia as the destination... with Hawaii as a "why not" layover. JL in the JV could take care beyond Japan.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:43 am

ANC: HA flew there for years as a charter. The population is small and doubt 2 carriers can survive.
East Coast: JFK isn't always daily so smaller cities (BOS/WAS) have no chance especially with limited domestic feed.
MNL: The yields are so trash forget it- even with a 787.
DPS: much less demand than MNL and trash yields
ADL/DRW: both are experiencing economic problems. ADL has seen a population exodus (they are soon losing a senate seat) and DRW has less than 200K inhabitants.
MEL: has been on and off the radar for so many years now- if HA can access JQ's MEL-HNL loads that may determine if MEL is a possibility. However, I expect BNE to be increased first (currently 3x/week- 4X/week during a limited peak season).
CHC: similar to ADL/DRW- too few people even if a monopoly. Route pax via AKL.
PER: LOL- too far with no connecting traffic. Waste of expensive real estate- BOS/WAS would involve serious less risk and as mentioned above- these routes would have challenges.
Free HNL stopover idea- yeah, Hawaii Tousim Authority ain't paying for that one and with cheap fares airlines are reluctant to offer STPC. Plus the US transit visa for South America-Asia traffic kills the idea anyway.
LON: this can be tried, but not convinced it will necessarily work due to high operational costs. Also too many closer and cheaper sun/beach destinations to choose from.
 
CV880
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:44 am

Much of what has been discussed in this thread ain't gonna happen as the 'big 3' won't let it happen, plus HA will get swallowed up by one of them who wants the route authorities & the 789's.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:43 am

Nobody has ever tried S.Am. to Asia via HNL. It's outside the box, perhaps contrarian, but the routes would ALL be monopoly routes. Given the considerable JP, KR, and CN investment in S.Am., there is plenty premium traffic, and it now ALL goes through LAX.... perhaps some through DFW.

For instance... these are so much better than anything via CONUS:
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-icn
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-pek
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-hnd
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=eze-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=gru-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=sao-hnl-hkg

and the humorous one... (not humorous for AA)
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=mia-hnl-hkg



The 789 geese could lay golden eggs. It would steal traffic from LAX/NRT, LAX/ICN, LAX/HKG, and LAX/China.
 
bagoldex
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:34 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
I would love to see 789s to open some A332s that could start service to BOS.


Not a chance. Boston-Hawaii is too small and fragmented of a market.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:43 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Nobody has ever tried S.Am. to Asia via HNL. It's outside the box, perhaps contrarian, but the routes would ALL be monopoly routes. Given the considerable JP, KR, and CN investment in S.Am., there is plenty premium traffic, and it now ALL goes through LAX.... perhaps some through DFW.

For instance... these are so much better than anything via CONUS:
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-icn
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-pek
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-hnd
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=eze-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=gru-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=sao-hnl-hkg

and the humorous one... (not humorous for AA)
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=mia-hnl-hkg



The 789 geese could lay golden eggs. It would steal traffic from LAX/NRT, LAX/ICN, LAX/HKG, and LAX/China.


Virtually none of these sorts of routes are appreciably shorter via HNL than via LAX and/or DXB. Several of the South America cities you mention do not have stellar track records of supporting service to LAX despite the larger local market and much more robust connecting opportunities (GRU-LAX-SEA might make some sense; GRU-HNL-SEA does not). Why would HNL work better than LAX as this sort of hub?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
rbavfan
Posts: 2571
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:43 pm

tkoenig95 wrote:
Hawaiian Airlines announced the order for 10 789s and purchase right for 10 additional, replacing the original order for the A339. Now that the airline is scaling back 767 operations and utilizing the incoming A321neo fleet for US West Coast, where can we find the 789 flying once it enters service in 2021?

First destinations coming to mind are second-tier cities in Australia like ADL, DRW, PER and the obvious MEL. Asia possibilities could extend to BKK, HAN and KUL. Could we even see more expansion on the US East Coast for cities such as ATL, BOS or MIA?

Obviously Hawaiian wanted to boost capacity and network operations with the Dreamliner fleet, so here's to the second act of a new chapter for HA!


I would bet London before KUL or BKK as those two are low yield routes with passengers that transfer through Japan or Korea. Austrailia would also come before those.
 
rbavfan
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:40 pm

jplatts wrote:
HA could add HNL-DFW nonstop service in order to better compete against AA and WN (who might possibly add 1-stop direct flights with no change of planes between HNL and DAL) on the HNL-DFW/DAL route. DFW is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

Similarly, HA could add HNL-IAH nonstop service in order to better compete against UA and WN on the HNL-IAH/HOU route, and IAH is also located in the 2nd largest U.S. metropolitan area that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline.

In addition to DFW and IAH, HA could also add IAH-IAD nonstop service since UA is currently the only airline to serve Hawaii nonstop from IAD. There is also no nonstop service to Hawaii from DCA or BWI, and HA doesn't have any beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that would allow HA to serve HNL nonstop from DCA. IAD is also located in the largest U.S. metropolitan area on the East Coast that has nonstop service to Hawaii on only 1 airline. There is also government travel between HNL and IAD since Honolulu is located in the capital city of Hawaii, since there are U.S. military bases in the Honolulu area, and since all 4 of the members of Congress representing Hawaii have congressional offices in the Honolulu area.


As no wide body planes are allowed at DCA in or out of perimeter. HNL-DCA flight could not be done. The A321 could not do that route.
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 5780
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Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:06 pm

32andBelow wrote:
How does HA not fly to ANC? Why they let alaska have this market all alone?


Because it's a tiny market.

ANC gets a lot of attention because it's well positioned for freighter fuel stops, but in the end it's a metro of just 400k people. Anchorage residents travel more than average Americans but even so there are only a few large markets out of Anchorage, with SEA and IAH being the biggest.

rbavfan wrote:
As no wide body planes are allowed at DCA in or out of perimeter. HNL-DCA flight could not be done. The A321 could not do that route.


Not quite correct. The 762 and 763 are allowed into DCA, and DL has occasionally flown in 763s from ATL when higher volume than normal is expected. Not sure if a HA 763ER could take off from DCA with sufficient fuel to reach HNL, but it's academic anyway. There is no appropriate beyond perimeter slot and if more are allowed there are certainly higher-priority markets for airlines (SAN, more flights into LAX/SFO).
 
32andBelow
Posts: 3695
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:09 pm

seabosdca wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
How does HA not fly to ANC? Why they let alaska have this market all alone?


Because it's a tiny market.

ANC gets a lot of attention because it's well positioned for freighter fuel stops, but in the end it's a metro of just 400k people. Anchorage residents travel more than average Americans but even so there are only a few large markets out of Anchorage, with SEA and IAH being the biggest.

AK and HI have a huge connection and is a huge travel destination. Also a ton of polys live in ANC
 
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cathay747
Posts: 903
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:57 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Nobody has ever tried S.Am. to Asia via HNL. It's outside the box, perhaps contrarian, but the routes would ALL be monopoly routes. Given the considerable JP, KR, and CN investment in S.Am., there is plenty premium traffic, and it now ALL goes through LAX.... perhaps some through DFW.

For instance... these are so much better than anything via CONUS:
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-icn
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-pek
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-hnd
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=eze-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=gru-hnl-hkg
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=sao-hnl-hkg

and the humorous one... (not humorous for AA)
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=mia-hnl-hkg



The 789 geese could lay golden eggs. It would steal traffic from LAX/NRT, LAX/ICN, LAX/HKG, and LAX/China.


Virtually none of these sorts of routes are appreciably shorter via HNL than via LAX and/or DXB. Several of the South America cities you mention do not have stellar track records of supporting service to LAX despite the larger local market and much more robust connecting opportunities (GRU-LAX-SEA might make some sense; GRU-HNL-SEA does not). Why would HNL work better than LAX as this sort of hub?


OK some people need to get back on the Reality Bus...and I mean no disrespect to anyone in saying that, but so much of what's proposed is sheer fantasy/wishful thinking...

HA have consistently stated that they are not out to become a global, network carrier. They've clearly said many times that they are a boutique/specialist airline and that their role is to bring people to Hawaii. "Know thyself" is the perfect descriptor for their mentality. So unless they totally trash all that they've said for a long time, there will be no scissor hub @ HNL connecting South America to/from Asia. Their existing scheduling doesn't event connect CONUS to/from Asia, the SoPac or Oz. It's not their stated mission, so they don't schedule that way.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
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cathay747
Posts: 903
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:59 pm

32andBelow wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
How does HA not fly to ANC? Why they let alaska have this market all alone?


Because it's a tiny market.

ANC gets a lot of attention because it's well positioned for freighter fuel stops, but in the end it's a metro of just 400k people. Anchorage residents travel more than average Americans but even so there are only a few large markets out of Anchorage, with SEA and IAH being the biggest.

AK and HI have a huge connection and is a huge travel destination. Also a ton of polys live in ANC


Methinks that HA won't try to intrude into AS's sandbox because if there was enough of a market, AS would bump up their 1x daily frequency to 2, and they haven't...so if the market can't support 2x daily 738's, it sure couldn't support HA coming in with a widebody on top of AS's daily 738.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
32andBelow
Posts: 3695
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:03 pm

cathay747 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

Because it's a tiny market.

ANC gets a lot of attention because it's well positioned for freighter fuel stops, but in the end it's a metro of just 400k people. Anchorage residents travel more than average Americans but even so there are only a few large markets out of Anchorage, with SEA and IAH being the biggest.

AK and HI have a huge connection and is a huge travel destination. Also a ton of polys live in ANC


Methinks that HA won't try to intrude into AS's sandbox because if there was enough of a market, AS would bump up their 1x daily frequency to 2, and they haven't...so if the market can't support 2x daily 738's, it sure couldn't support HA coming in with a widebody on top of AS's daily 738.

AS has flights to several islands From ANC and many more have to connect over Seattle or buy an inner island ticket on HA to get to their final destinations. ANC/HNL seems like a no brainer on an a321 at least seasonally. You should check our ANC HNL fares over Christmas and spring breaks.
 
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cathay747
Posts: 903
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:05 pm

seabosdca wrote:

rbavfan wrote:
As no wide body planes are allowed at DCA in or out of perimeter. HNL-DCA flight could not be done. The A321 could not do that route.


Not quite correct. The 762 and 763 are allowed into DCA, and DL has occasionally flown in 763s from ATL when higher volume than normal is expected. Not sure if a HA 763ER could take off from DCA with sufficient fuel to reach HNL, but it's academic anyway. There is no appropriate beyond perimeter slot and if more are allowed there are certainly higher-priority markets for airlines (SAN, more flights into LAX/SFO).


Spot-on about the DL 767 ops @ DCA. But as to a HA 763ER making out of DCA with a full load & necessary fuel...not a chance...DCA's main runway is only 7,169 feet long. My guess is that's at least 1,000 too short, even at max t/o power.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
User avatar
cathay747
Posts: 903
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:13 pm

32andBelow wrote:
cathay747 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
AK and HI have a huge connection and is a huge travel destination. Also a ton of polys live in ANC


Methinks that HA won't try to intrude into AS's sandbox because if there was enough of a market, AS would bump up their 1x daily frequency to 2, and they haven't...so if the market can't support 2x daily 738's, it sure couldn't support HA coming in with a widebody on top of AS's daily 738.

AS has flights to several islands From ANC and many more have to connect over Seattle or buy an inner island ticket on HA to get to their final destinations. ANC/HNL seems like a no brainer on an a321 at least seasonally. You should check our ANC HNL fares over Christmas and spring breaks.


I know all of that, and what the fares are is irrelevant. You totally missed my point. If the market is so big, then why hasn't AS added more frequencies? Now if they're missing the boat, then hell yeah, get in there HA! But I'm sure they haven't because they can see that the market that exists is being fulfilled with AS's one daily flight to each island.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 5780
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:25 pm

cathay747 wrote:
Spot-on about the DL 767 ops @ DCA. But as to a HA 763ER making out of DCA with a full load & necessary fuel...not a chance...DCA's main runway is only 7,169 feet long. My guess is that's at least 1,000 too short, even at max t/o power.


You got me curious so I looked at the ACAP. Not that the ACAP is the best source, but it suggests it would be surprisingly close. With the highest-thrust engine option, the 763ER has quite good field performance.

On an ISA + 27 day (typical of hot days in DC), a newer 763ER frame with PW4062 engines can take off from DCA at a takeoff weight of about 378k lbs. With sufficient fuel to fly ~4500 nm still air distance, plus reserves (which is about what you'd need to get to HNL) you get a zero fuel weight of 262k lbs. With HA's relatively light configuration I expect an OEW of 200k lbs is about on the money. 62klb payload would be enough to carry the full load of 259 passengers with a little bit of cargo on top.

Of course winter winds could take a significant bite out of the possible payload. And all of this is an academic discussion anyway as 1) there won't be a slot and 2) the 763ER is leaving HA and no other aircraft in their current or future fleet could serve DCA. Maybe they will eventually see fit to serve IAD with a 332.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 1242
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:34 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Why would HNL work better than LAX as this sort of hub?


1. Shorter GC mileage, and faster O to D, depending on sked (HA + JL should offer plenty of frequencies westbound from HNL).
2. Optional layover in HNL. If you want to layover in LA... connect through LAX. If you want to layover in Hawaii, connect through HNL.

I've had this exact conversation with network planners at HA, so they certainly know about the scissor hub concept. If I knew the routes HA has planned, I couldn't disclose them, but I don't know the plans, so I can speculate.

As far as Reality Bus (chuckle), my two word response is: monopoly routes.

Why does HA not compete with AS on service to ANC? AS got the first to market advantage and maintained those monopoly routes. Every monopoly route starts with a first mover. HA (and AQ, RIP) made the quantum leap from interisland to CONUS. HA then went international, a second quantum leap.

This is the third quantum leap. Peter... be the first mover. Make HNL the DXB of the Pacific.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 13253
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:43 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Why would HNL work better than LAX as this sort of hub?


1. Shorter GC mileage, and faster O to D, depending on sked (HA + JL should offer plenty of frequencies westbound from HNL).
2. Optional layover in HNL. If you want to layover in LA... connect through LAX. If you want to layover in Hawaii, connect through HNL.

I've had this exact conversation with network planners at HA, so they certainly know about the scissor hub concept. If I knew the routes HA has planned, I couldn't disclose them, but I don't know the plans, so I can speculate.


Does HA have ETOPS 240 on the 332s? If not, it's probably not shorter at all; virtually anything from the southern cone needs 240 or better to follow the GC route to HNL. And while the 789 is certified to 330 and HA's will not have RR engine problems, if they do not have 240 on the 332 that's pretty good circumstantial evidence that they do not have interest in 330 on the 789.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 1242
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: HA Operations/Network

Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:55 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Does HA have ETOPS 240 on the 332s?

I'll inquire, but I wouldn't surmise anything about ETOPS on the 789 based on the 332s.

Here's an interesting analysis.
http://umichuic.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... tation.pdf
HA+JL have 52.63% of the Hawaii/Japan market.

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