LupineChemist
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What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:12 pm

So I know this topic has been covered and has been beaten to death, but it's truly of massive importance and this week it appears no-deal is a very serious possibility with the government officially advising private businesses to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. Worth remembering that no-deal is the default option and actually getting a deal requires quite a bit of work that quite frankly hasn't been done and it may even already be past the point of no return to have enough time to successfully negotiate any deal. I don't want to take a stand one way or another, just recognizing that it's a massive change in the legal structures and keep the discussion to what that means to civil aviation specifically.

So I thought it would be worth going into at this point.

Would there be able to be air service between the UK and the EU27?

Are the old bilaterals still on the books? i.e. if UK is out with no deal with US air service default to Bermuda II. Are there any existing bilaterals between UK and main EU countries?

What timeframe are we realistically looking at before airlines start planning fleet movements and flights for post-Brexit assuming no changes? Specifically EasyJet moving aircraft to their Austrian AOC and moving more flights out of the UK as with Ryanair.

Would certification from UK CAA be acceptable for allowing flights to third countries rather than EASA?

Is there any inclination about how the structure of IAG will have to change as it's a Spanish company that owns a UK airline?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:23 pm

I am not good at using the search function on this site, but ..... A couple years ago GB aviation authorities put out a longish and exhaustive report on the various possibilities for aviation. I posted, commented, and provided a link to the source. Perhaps someone more skilled than I might track that down for you.
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LupineChemist
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:59 am

I found this thread.

viewtopic.php?t=1390451

and a few others. But I feel things were a lot more speculative (and I realize they still are) and now no-deal is at the very least a 50/50 option if not the probable option at this point.
 
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reidar76
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:27 am

LupineChemist wrote:
Would there be able to be air service between the UK and the EU27?

Are the old bilaterals still on the books?

Would certification from UK CAA be acceptable for allowing flights to third countries rather than EASA?

Is there any inclination about how the structure of IAG will have to change as it's a Spanish company that owns a UK airline?


Most of your questions can be answered by reading these two short documents:

Air Transport:
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/tr ... nsport.pdf

Aviation Safety:
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/tr ... safety.pdf

Here are some short answers to your complex questions:

No, in absent of any regulations and certifications for pilots, air traffic controllers or aircraft and aircraft maintenance etc., there can't be any service. Not between the UK and EU27, or between the UK and other countries. The UK might be able to maintain domestic service within the UK.

No. When an agreement is replaced by a new agreement (as the EU-US Open skies), all the old ones a permanently terminated.

No. The UK CAA is only a national office of EASA. Absolutely all certifications etc. that has been issued by the UK CAA as been done so under the authority of EASA and in accordance with EU law. When that authority ceases, and when EU law no longer applies, everything with it will be void. There won't be any pilots that holds a license to operate a civilian aircraft, there won't be any school certified to educate pilots, the won't be any licensed air traffic controllers, the won't be any certified MRO's etc.

"British Airways" is a brand name and is no more British than Swiss Air is Swiss, or Brussels Airlines is Belgian. The two latter is Lufthansa in disguise. It is likely that British Airways will continue to be an EU-airline. The definition of an EU-airline is really connected to ownership (more than 50%).

In short these three areas will be affected, both in a no deal scenario, but also if the EU and the UK is able to reach an agreement. The difference is only that an agreement will give the UK time to adjust and set up its own agencies, make its own regulations and have both internationally recognized.

1) All EU law and regulations including the authority of EASA, the EU department for aviation safety, will cease to apply in the UK. The UK will not be able to put up its own agency and have it internationally recognized it just a few months. This is what the transition period is all about. That means there will be no certified pilots or aircraft that can operate in the UK.

2) The UK will no longer be a part of the EU single aviation market, and will therefore no longer be covered by the agreements that regulates foreign carriers access to the EU single aviation market in return for EU-carriers access to foreign aviation markets (like the US Federal aviation market). It is not possible to make agreements with the US and others in just a few months. These processes takes many years. The UK will try to negotiate with the US and others during the transition period.

3) All aircraft parts that are manufactured in the UK will no longer be certified. It is wrong to a assume, once certified, always certified. Certification and licenses is a continuous processes, which include supervision, oversight, inspection etc. When EASA no longer has any authority in the UK, and when EU rules doesn't apply, manufacturing will come to a halt. All aircraft components imported into the EU must comply with EASA regulations. The UK can set up its own certification and safely authority, and the apply EASA for equivalence approval, but that takes years. Again, this is what the transition period is all about.
 
UltimoTiger777
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:55 am

Just for the avoidance of doubt, while a no deal certainly means a roadblock for flights between the UK & EU as well as the UK & US, what about countries the UK had aviation agreements with of its own?

The UK & Singapore have an Open Skies agreement so surely that stays in effect?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:09 am

So in conclusion, everything will stop on the Brexit date without a deal.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:27 am

Well I think I need to do a more detail review of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act of 2018 with emphasis on how it affects aviation, certification can be a problem if third parties deem it to be so.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_ ... Withdrawal)_Act_2018
 
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sassiciai
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:46 pm

The no-deal Brexit leading to a civil aviation Armageddon may be a theoretical outcome. I have no proof or evidence to the contrary, but I just can't believe that a pragmatic first world environment will allow this to happen. Disaster will be headed off in time (or in the last minutes), and the world as we know it will continue to turn normally. It is in no-one's interest to have this total suspension of services, and in the spirit of "where there's a will, there's a way", adequate work arounds will be in place before E-Day.

I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised

We have had nightmare scenarios before (remember the Millenium Bug?), I cannot accept that no-deal Brexit will cause mega disruption in the UK, nor with interaction with the rest of the world!

I live just south of Brussels, one of the most famous places in the world for producing political fudge that manages to head off such apparent impossible rifts! Brussels is also good for real chocolate, and is surrounded in the country by the producers of some of the best beer in the world!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:05 pm

If Brexiters were responsible rather than anarchist bomb throwers they would have started 5 years ago with preliminary plans for the various sectors of the GB economy and political divisions (i.e., N Ireland). Those preliminary plans would have been the starting point for negotiations. But those preliminary plans, had they be made public, likely would have resulted in a Remain vote.

res Millenium bug - it seems to escape the brains of many that a good part of the reason it was not a nightmare is that better brains than common here were working to make things work. Some of the smartest kids in my high school (50s) final gig was averting Millenium bugs. They succeeded and retired.
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Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
So in conclusion, everything will stop on the Brexit date without a deal.


Would you like to see that happen?

You do realise UK airports feed a lot of the transfer traffic at AMS?
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:00 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So in conclusion, everything will stop on the Brexit date without a deal.


Would you like to see that happen?

You do realise UK airports feed a lot of the transfer traffic at AMS?


No, do you?

That said, as you know I was against the Brexit in the first place, no deal Brexit is the absolute worst. But the ball is firmly in the court of the British. If the only way to prevent a hard Brexit is to have the Brits cherry pick and to break with the principles of the EU, then yes, my preferred route is a very hard Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:09 pm

sassiciai wrote:
I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised


Rules are already harmonized. The point is that Britain needs to have put into place its own systems. You are talking about a situation where there is some kind of treaty, so that is not "no deal" Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So in conclusion, everything will stop on the Brexit date without a deal.


Would you like to see that happen?

You do realise UK airports feed a lot of the transfer traffic at AMS?


No, do you?

That said, as you know I was against the Brexit in the first place, no deal Brexit is the absolute worst. But the ball is firmly in the court of the British. If the only way to prevent a hard Brexit is to have the Brits cherry pick and to break with the principles of the EU, then yes, my preferred route is a very hard Brexit.


No of course I wouldn’t like to see flights stop, it will be bad for ALL parties.

If we cannot come to a reasonable arrangement, that don’t violate red lines, hard brexit is the only way. I was quite happy with chequers to be honest, but the EU chucked that out.
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:36 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Would you like to see that happen?

You do realise UK airports feed a lot of the transfer traffic at AMS?


No, do you?

That said, as you know I was against the Brexit in the first place, no deal Brexit is the absolute worst. But the ball is firmly in the court of the British. If the only way to prevent a hard Brexit is to have the Brits cherry pick and to break with the principles of the EU, then yes, my preferred route is a very hard Brexit.


No of course I wouldn’t like to see flights stop, it will be bad for ALL parties.

If we cannot come to a reasonable arrangement, that don’t violate red lines, hard brexit is the only way. I was quite happy with chequers to be honest, but the EU chucked that out.


Chequers was cherry picking so had no real change.
Brittian might have red lines, but so has the EU (which the UK agreed to, ironically). If all the UK red lines need to be observed, then the UK should negotiate a deal like the EU has with South Korea/Canada. The blueprint is already there.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Loew
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:38 pm

EU commission has already issued a notice to stakeholders in januray 2018 in connection with air transport in a case of a no deal hard brexit.

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/tr ... nsport.pdf

Bottom line is, if the UK leaves the EU without an aviation agreement, flights would immediately cease between the UK and the EU since EU issued operating aviation licenses would no longer be valid in the UK, and British airlines would no longer have the right to fly to EU countries, because UK issued operating aviation licences would no longer be valid in the EU. The UK would also cease being a member of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which issues the certification and licenses EU aircraft require. Third country airlines could be hit too, as those carriers will no longer benefit from access to traffic rights to or from the UK, or any other rights where these have been granted to their country under any air transport agreement to which the EU is a party. An example of such agreement is EU-US open skies agreement.
 
tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:42 pm

sassiciai wrote:
We have had nightmare scenarios before (remember the Millenium Bug?)!


Lots of stuff happened because of Y2K, overstaffing, everything and everyone available on standby and that after years of expensive and extensive preparation.
If Berlin for example had a big fire that night, it would have been a nightmare, due to Y2K they couldn't dispatch or coordinate and had to patrol the streets to scout for fires...

Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised


That requires negotiations, and if those negotiations where successful, that problem wouldn't exist.

The logical transition solution is that UK authorities remain under EU control for the time being. Domestically a hard sell in the UK.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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sassiciai
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:49 pm

Dutchy wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised


Rules are already harmonized. The point is that Britain needs to have put into place its own systems. You are talking about a situation where there is some kind of treaty, so that is not "no deal" Brexit.

I am not a lawyer, and I am not all that interested in the ramifications of Brexit. If there is a "no deal Brexit", I'm sure that agreements can be signed between the EU and the UK that prolong (for as long as necessary......) particular bits of the EU treaty that the UK is Brexiting - is this the transition period? I do recognise that if this is left to market forces, the entire treaty the UK wants out of will be supplemented by such agreements and that hard Brexit would be quite soft! So maybe not acceptable! <sigh>!

I cant accept as fact that on E-Day, the UK will be isolated from the EU. It will just not happen like that! Eurostar will continue, cross-channel ferries will continue. Flights will continue! Maybe chaos at the borders!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:57 pm

sassiciai wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised


Rules are already harmonized. The point is that Britain needs to have put into place its own systems. You are talking about a situation where there is some kind of treaty, so that is not "no deal" Brexit.

I am not a lawyer, and I am not all that interested in the ramifications of Brexit. If there is a "no deal Brexit", I'm sure that agreements can be signed between the EU and the UK that prolong (for as long as necessary......) particular bits of the EU treaty that the UK is Brexiting - is this the transition period? I do recognise that if this is left to market forces, the entire treaty the UK wants out of will be supplemented by such agreements and that hard Brexit would be quite soft! So maybe not acceptable! <sigh>!

I cant accept as fact that on E-Day, the UK will be isolated from the EU. It will just not happen like that! Eurostar will continue, cross-channel ferries will continue. Flights will continue! Maybe chaos at the borders!


Neither can I, but that requires negotiation and the OP talked about a no-deal Brexit and the consequences of that are dire.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
VS11
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:47 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
Would there be able to be air service between the UK and the EU27?


Eventually. If the agreement that constitutes the current single European aviation market does not specify what happens if one of the countries leaves it then there will be a legal vacuum for the operation of flights between the UK and the other single European aviation market countries, which I think includes more than just EU27. As the EU Commission is supposed to negotiate on behalf of all EU, individual bilateral agreements would not be valid. So in a no-deal case, the possibility of no flights between UK and EU is real.


LupineChemist wrote:
Are the old bilaterals still on the books? i.e. if UK is out with no deal with US air service default to Bermuda II. Are there any existing bilaterals between UK and main EU countries?


In the case of the US, the old bilateral would NOT apply. In fact, the US and UK had already been discussing the new bilateral and the US only offered a standard bilateral:

"US offers UK inferior open skies deal after Brexit"
https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f9 ... d3483b8b80

LupineChemist wrote:
Would certification from UK CAA be acceptable for allowing flights to third countries rather than EASA?


I believe so. It should be acceptable to any Chicago convention signatories including EASA countries and US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_C ... l_Aviation

LupineChemist wrote:
Is there any inclination about how the structure of IAG will have to change as it's a Spanish company that owns a UK airline?


IAG structure does not need to change but the ownership of BA will. IAG will own 49% of the holding company that owns BA so that BA stays majority British-owned.
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:00 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

No, do you?

That said, as you know I was against the Brexit in the first place, no deal Brexit is the absolute worst. But the ball is firmly in the court of the British. If the only way to prevent a hard Brexit is to have the Brits cherry pick and to break with the principles of the EU, then yes, my preferred route is a very hard Brexit.


No of course I wouldn’t like to see flights stop, it will be bad for ALL parties.

If we cannot come to a reasonable arrangement, that don’t violate red lines, hard brexit is the only way. I was quite happy with chequers to be honest, but the EU chucked that out.


Chequers was cherry picking so had no real change.
Brittian might have red lines, but so has the EU (which the UK agreed to, ironically). If all the UK red lines need to be observed, then the UK should negotiate a deal like the EU has with South Korea/Canada. The blueprint is already there.


Well. I’d be 100% happy with the Canadian deal, just to end the stalemate and everyone can get on with their lives, do you agree?
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

No of course I wouldn’t like to see flights stop, it will be bad for ALL parties.

If we cannot come to a reasonable arrangement, that don’t violate red lines, hard brexit is the only way. I was quite happy with chequers to be honest, but the EU chucked that out.


Chequers was cherry picking so had no real change.
Brittian might have red lines, but so has the EU (which the UK agreed to, ironically). If all the UK red lines need to be observed, then the UK should negotiate a deal like the EU has with South Korea/Canada. The blueprint is already there.


Well. I’d be 100% happy with the Canadian deal, just to end the stalemate and everyone can get on with their lives, do you agree?


It will damage the UK and the EU quite badly, but at this point, I will agree on any level of cooperation which observes the EU fundamentals. And if that is the price Great Brittian is prepared to pay for some "independence" then it is fine with me.
Actually, this has been the point of view of the EU from the very beginning, Brittian chose what you want from the many deals the EU has and thus chose the level of cooperation you want, but you just can't cherry pick like the Chequers proposal.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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RobK
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:18 pm

sassiciai wrote:
The no-deal Brexit leading to a civil aviation Armageddon may be a theoretical outcome. I have no proof or evidence to the contrary, but I just can't believe that a pragmatic first world environment will allow this to happen. Disaster will be headed off in time (or in the last minutes), and the world as we know it will continue to turn normally. It is in no-one's interest to have this total suspension of services, and in the spirit of "where there's a will, there's a way", adequate work arounds will be in place before E-Day.

I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised

We have had nightmare scenarios before (remember the Millenium Bug?), I cannot accept that no-deal Brexit will cause mega disruption in the UK, nor with interaction with the rest of the world!


Exactly this ^.

There will be no aviation armageddon nor any other form of armageddon. I (and I expect many others residing here) are sick to death of hearing and reading about it. The media are (unsurprisingly) milking the whole thing to death and trying their damnedest to cause mass hysteria and whip everyone up into a frenzy predicting the end of the civilisation as we know it. It's sensationalist nonsense. Flights between the UK and continental Europe will continue as normal, as will trade in general once they've ironed out the details so you can all stop building your bunkers and stocking up on tins of beans as nothing will change at the coalface end of things.
 
masseybrown
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:40 pm

Irrespective of exact legalities on March 29th, it's fair to assume that LHR with see a relative long-term decline in its share of TATL traffic. In absolute numbers, this probably favors the other Euro-hubs more than it hurts LHR.
 
Socrates17
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:49 pm

EU nations and airports will be prevented BY LAW from receiving flights from the UK. It isn't a matter of choice. I've recommended before that interested parties follow Dr. Richard North's blog EU Referendum. Dr. North, as a Tory advisor, supported Leave, so he's hardly a "remoaner". But he expected the disentanglement to be handled in a mature, rational and timely manner leading to a soft-ish Brexit. From his August 8th blog post:

"Of all the headline issues that may become apparent, post Brexit, is aviation. Once we drop out of European Common Aviation Area (ECAA) and the aviation safety acquis, administered by EASA, the effects on UK aviation will be widespread and profound.
"Rothwell, for the Telegraph relies on the view of chancellor Philip Hammond, who said: "It is theoretically conceivable in a no-deal scenario that there will be no air traffic moving between the UK and EU on 29 March 2019. But I don't think anybody seriously believes that is where we will get to".
"For my part, it is extremely difficult to see how the legal issues in civil aviation can be resolved without intensive negotiations and a complex raft of agreements. In the event of a "no deal" Brexit, therefore, some disruption is inevitable and the odds favour a complete shut-down, even if only for a matter of days while emergency agreements are stitched together – allowing limited UK services.
"The approach to aviation, however, typifies the way many pundits handle a "no deal" Brexit. Many of the consequences are so extreme that disbelief sets in."

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86956
You Can't Take the Sky from Me
 
Aliqiout
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:14 pm

RobK wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
The no-deal Brexit leading to a civil aviation Armageddon may be a theoretical outcome. I have no proof or evidence to the contrary, but I just can't believe that a pragmatic first world environment will allow this to happen. Disaster will be headed off in time (or in the last minutes), and the world as we know it will continue to turn normally. It is in no-one's interest to have this total suspension of services, and in the spirit of "where there's a will, there's a way", adequate work arounds will be in place before E-Day.

I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised

We have had nightmare scenarios before (remember the Millenium Bug?), I cannot accept that no-deal Brexit will cause mega disruption in the UK, nor with interaction with the rest of the world!


Exactly this ^.

There will be no aviation armageddon nor any other form of armageddon. I (and I expect many others residing here) are sick to death of hearing and reading about it. The media are (unsurprisingly) milking the whole thing to death and trying their damnedest to cause mass hysteria and whip everyone up into a frenzy predicting the end of the civilisation as we know it. It's sensationalist nonsense. Flights between the UK and continental Europe will continue as normal, as will trade in general once they've ironed out the details so you can all stop building your bunkers and stocking up on tins of beans as nothing will change at the coalface end of things.

I think your missing the point. Most still believe that something will be worked out, but no progress is apparent yet, and if nothing is done by March 29, 2019, there will be an aviation armageddon. This is not like Y2K. Here the law requires flights to stop if nothing is worked out.

Of course I believe something will be done in time, but there is a reason faith in the the negotiators is wavering, and the question of what will happen if no deal is reached is relevant.
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:44 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Chequers was cherry picking so had no real change.
Brittian might have red lines, but so has the EU (which the UK agreed to, ironically). If all the UK red lines need to be observed, then the UK should negotiate a deal like the EU has with South Korea/Canada. The blueprint is already there.


Well. I’d be 100% happy with the Canadian deal, just to end the stalemate and everyone can get on with their lives, do you agree?


It will damage the UK and the EU quite badly, but at this point, I will agree on any level of cooperation which observes the EU fundamentals. And if that is the price Great Brittian is prepared to pay for some "independence" then it is fine with me.
Actually, this has been the point of view of the EU from the very beginning, Brittian chose what you want from the many deals the EU has and thus chose the level of cooperation you want, but you just can't cherry pick like the Chequers proposal.


Fine by me to have the Canada option. Freedom to do trade deals, while scrapping the free movement of people. Amazing how the EU is a big organisation for “freedom” yet there’s no freedom to do your own trade deals or control your borders. Irony.
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:51 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Well. I’d be 100% happy with the Canadian deal, just to end the stalemate and everyone can get on with their lives, do you agree?


It will damage the UK and the EU quite badly, but at this point, I will agree on any level of cooperation which observes the EU fundamentals. And if that is the price Great Brittian is prepared to pay for some "independence" then it is fine with me.
Actually, this has been the point of view of the EU from the very beginning, Brittian chose what you want from the many deals the EU has and thus chose the level of cooperation you want, but you just can't cherry pick like the Chequers proposal.


Fine by me to have the Canada option. Freedom to do trade deals, while scrapping the free movement of people. Amazing how the EU is a big organisation for “freedom” yet there’s no freedom to do your own trade deals or control your borders. Irony.


You cannot have a trade block with everyone making its own trade deals and thereafter distributing them in the whole EU. Everyone should be able to understand that. Control of your borders, also good luck, whom is going to do all those jobs those pesky foreigners are doing now and thus contributing to the UK economy?

And good luck making those trade deals, please make them better then you have with your closest neighbors. You are abandoning the best trade deal possible with 27 of the richest countries which are closest to you: 0% tariffs, 0% problems, 0% of products not in. :lol:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:56 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

It will damage the UK and the EU quite badly, but at this point, I will agree on any level of cooperation which observes the EU fundamentals. And if that is the price Great Brittian is prepared to pay for some "independence" then it is fine with me.
Actually, this has been the point of view of the EU from the very beginning, Brittian chose what you want from the many deals the EU has and thus chose the level of cooperation you want, but you just can't cherry pick like the Chequers proposal.


Fine by me to have the Canada option. Freedom to do trade deals, while scrapping the free movement of people. Amazing how the EU is a big organisation for “freedom” yet there’s no freedom to do your own trade deals or control your borders. Irony.


You cannot have a trade block with everyone making its own trade deals and thereafter distributing them in the whole EU. Everyone should be able to understand that. Control of your borders, also good luck, whom is going to do all those jobs those pesky foreigners are doing now and thus contributing to the UK economy?

And good luck making those trade deals, please make them better then you have with your closest neighbors. You are abandoning the best trade deal possible with 27 of the richest countries which are closest to you: 0% tariffs, 0% problems, 0% of products not in. :lol:


Again you see, it’s not a case of those “pesky foreigners” it’s the fact we can’t control who is coming here and doing what they want. I think it’s great having migrants coming here and contributing through high paid jobs. In the future, lets choose the workers and skills we want.
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:01 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Fine by me to have the Canada option. Freedom to do trade deals, while scrapping the free movement of people. Amazing how the EU is a big organisation for “freedom” yet there’s no freedom to do your own trade deals or control your borders. Irony.


You cannot have a trade block with everyone making its own trade deals and thereafter distributing them in the whole EU. Everyone should be able to understand that. Control of your borders, also good luck, whom is going to do all those jobs those pesky foreigners are doing now and thus contributing to the UK economy?

And good luck making those trade deals, please make them better then you have with your closest neighbors. You are abandoning the best trade deal possible with 27 of the richest countries which are closest to you: 0% tariffs, 0% problems, 0% of products not in. :lol:


Again you see, it’s not a case of those “pesky foreigners” it’s the fact we can’t control who is coming here and doing what they want. I think it’s great having migrants coming here and contributing through high paid jobs. In the future, lets choose the workers and skills we want.


We'll see how your little experiment will go.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
VS11
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:10 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Fine by me to have the Canada option. Freedom to do trade deals, while scrapping the free movement of people. Amazing how the EU is a big organisation for “freedom” yet there’s no freedom to do your own trade deals or control your borders. Irony.


That's hardly the irony. The irony is that Britain developed and proposed the principles of the common market - the 4 four freedoms. The irony is also that Britain is the country that made the most use of the single market and focused on developing global businesses. The final irony is that Britain stands to lose the most from leaving the single market. It is already being squeezed by the US, China and Russia. It is a horrible feeling to know that Britain was played into backing itself into a corner with no way out without substantial repercussions. The desperation is everywhere. Just today Tory MPs said they would not vote for a no-deal Brexit bill. You talk about the freedom to protect your own borders and yet Russian agents freely poison folks in the UK. The sooner you get through the denial phase the better.
 
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SamYeager2016
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:21 pm

If we're to take some of the more extreme scenarios being painted here seriously then this obviously means that all RR engines will be immediately unsupported since apparently their certification will immediately cease at the end of March 2019 and any spare parts made in the UK will also be non certified. :scratchchin: I know there's been a few moans about the disruption caused by 787 RR engine issues but that would pale into insignificance if every airline had to ground all RR engined aircraft.

OTOH perhaps, just maybe, there might be some "cherry picking" by the EU and other authorities to extend existing certifications for a long enough period until UK based authorities were officially recognised. The key thing to remember amongst all the talk from Brussels about "the rules" is that when Brussels wants to they have absolutely no qualms about either suspending or making exceptions, temporary or otherwise, to "the rules".
 
VS11
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Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:33 pm

SamYeager2016 wrote:
If we're to take some of the more extreme scenarios being painted here seriously then this obviously means that all RR engines will be immediately unsupported since apparently their certification will immediately cease at the end of March 2019 and any spare parts made in the UK will also be non certified. :scratchchin: I know there's been a few moans about the disruption caused by 787 RR engine issues but that would pale into insignificance if every airline had to ground all RR engined aircraft.


It is not just RR engines but any airplane part made in the UK if the UK is outside EASA.

"Mr Williams said a significant concern was whether it would be able to access supplies of the component parts it needs in order to build planes, and whether there would be “chaos at the borders” after March 2020. Suppliers of parts in the UK are currently governed by the European Aviation Safety Agency; without its certification, and if the UK does not agree to align itself with EU standards via a new British agency, he raised concerns that planes with British parts will not be valid.'

"‘Too dangerous’: Airbus reiterates Brexit warning"
https://www.ft.com/content/7e6f0358-75e ... a27d27ea5f
 
ScottishDavie
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:34 pm

It helps to illustrate the lunacy of the current UK government - if any further illustration is needed - that one of their no deal "technical notices" issued this week advised the use of air freight (particularly of medicines) to get round the possibility of blockages at the sea ports
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

You cannot have a trade block with everyone making its own trade deals and thereafter distributing them in the whole EU. Everyone should be able to understand that. Control of your borders, also good luck, whom is going to do all those jobs those pesky foreigners are doing now and thus contributing to the UK economy?

And good luck making those trade deals, please make them better then you have with your closest neighbors. You are abandoning the best trade deal possible with 27 of the richest countries which are closest to you: 0% tariffs, 0% problems, 0% of products not in. :lol:


Again you see, it’s not a case of those “pesky foreigners” it’s the fact we can’t control who is coming here and doing what they want. I think it’s great having migrants coming here and contributing through high paid jobs. In the future, lets choose the workers and skills we want.


We'll see how your little experiment will go.


The experiment over 17 million people want to happen. More than the population of the Netherlands.

Bye bye EU. It’s not been fun.
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RobK
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:46 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
RobK wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
The no-deal Brexit leading to a civil aviation Armageddon may be a theoretical outcome. I have no proof or evidence to the contrary, but I just can't believe that a pragmatic first world environment will allow this to happen. Disaster will be headed off in time (or in the last minutes), and the world as we know it will continue to turn normally. It is in no-one's interest to have this total suspension of services, and in the spirit of "where there's a will, there's a way", adequate work arounds will be in place before E-Day.

I cant believe that a European airport will refuse the arrival of a British-registered aircraft piloted by crew with UK licences the day after E-Day, when it was accepted the day before. Special protocols will be put in place allowing continuity across the industry (and other protocols for other industries), until such times as the rules are all harmonised

We have had nightmare scenarios before (remember the Millenium Bug?), I cannot accept that no-deal Brexit will cause mega disruption in the UK, nor with interaction with the rest of the world!


Exactly this ^.

There will be no aviation armageddon nor any other form of armageddon. I (and I expect many others residing here) are sick to death of hearing and reading about it. The media are (unsurprisingly) milking the whole thing to death and trying their damnedest to cause mass hysteria and whip everyone up into a frenzy predicting the end of the civilisation as we know it. It's sensationalist nonsense. Flights between the UK and continental Europe will continue as normal, as will trade in general once they've ironed out the details so you can all stop building your bunkers and stocking up on tins of beans as nothing will change at the coalface end of things.

I think your missing the point. Most still believe that something will be worked out, but no progress is apparent yet, and if nothing is done by March 29, 2019, there will be an aviation armageddon..


There will be no such thing. You are spouting sensationalist nonsense that's being fed to you by the media. The date is over 7 months away :roll: . Come back to me on Monday 25 March and tell me they still don't have a workable plan and I might cock an eyebrow and look a bit concerned but at this stage in proceedings you are working yourself up into a state over nothing. I will bet that on 30 March flights will be flying between the UK and the EU just the same as they do now.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:49 pm

ScottishDavie wrote:
It helps to illustrate the lunacy of the current UK government - if any further illustration is needed - that one of their no deal "technical notices" issued this week advised the use of air freight (particularly of medicines) to get round the possibility of blockages at the sea ports


:checkmark:

Quite shocking even. We are less than a year from point zero and we still don't know anything. The cliff is there, aviation is just a small part of it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:52 pm

RobK wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
RobK wrote:

Exactly this ^.

There will be no aviation armageddon nor any other form of armageddon. I (and I expect many others residing here) are sick to death of hearing and reading about it. The media are (unsurprisingly) milking the whole thing to death and trying their damnedest to cause mass hysteria and whip everyone up into a frenzy predicting the end of the civilisation as we know it. It's sensationalist nonsense. Flights between the UK and continental Europe will continue as normal, as will trade in general once they've ironed out the details so you can all stop building your bunkers and stocking up on tins of beans as nothing will change at the coalface end of things.

I think your missing the point. Most still believe that something will be worked out, but no progress is apparent yet, and if nothing is done by March 29, 2019, there will be an aviation armageddon..


There will be no such thing. You are spouting sensationalist nonsense that's being fed to you by the media. The date is over 7 months away :roll: . Come back to me on Monday 25 March and tell me they still don't have a workable plan and I might cock an eyebrow and look a bit concerned but at this stage in proceedings you are working yourself up into a state over nothing. I will bet that on 30 March flights will be flying between the UK and the EU just the same as they do now.



A Brexit agreement has to be ratified by all parliaments, including yours. In order to meet the deadline, we need to have an agreement by October, two months from now.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 180
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:08 am

RobK wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
RobK wrote:

Exactly this ^.

There will be no aviation armageddon nor any other form of armageddon. I (and I expect many others residing here) are sick to death of hearing and reading about it. The media are (unsurprisingly) milking the whole thing to death and trying their damnedest to cause mass hysteria and whip everyone up into a frenzy predicting the end of the civilisation as we know it. It's sensationalist nonsense. Flights between the UK and continental Europe will continue as normal, as will trade in general once they've ironed out the details so you can all stop building your bunkers and stocking up on tins of beans as nothing will change at the coalface end of things.

I think your missing the point. Most still believe that something will be worked out, but no progress is apparent yet, and if nothing is done by March 29, 2019, there will be an aviation armageddon..


There will be no such thing. You are spouting sensationalist nonsense that's being fed to you by the media. The date is over 7 months away :roll: . Come back to me on Monday 25 March and tell me they still don't have a workable plan and I might cock an eyebrow and look a bit concerned but at this stage in proceedings you are working yourself up into a state over nothing. I will bet that on 30 March flights will be flying between the UK and the EU just the same as they do now.


Apparently you did not read what anyone is writing.

No one here is predicting major problems. The point of this thread is that no progress has been made, and what would happen if no agreement can be achieved. No one is predicting that these things will actually happen.

Time is running short though, and that means that whatever agreement is reached will likely be sub- optimal.
 
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LTU330
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:12 am

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Again you see, it’s not a case of those “pesky foreigners” it’s the fact we can’t control who is coming here and doing what they want. I think it’s great having migrants coming here and contributing through high paid jobs. In the future, lets choose the workers and skills we want.


We'll see how your little experiment will go.


The experiment over 17 million people want to happen. More than the population of the Netherlands.

Bye bye EU. It’s not been fun.


You make it sound like most of the Country wants out. 52% of those who voted wanted out. that means that infact 48% of them didn't want out, and independant polls like the one two weeks ago now show that more than 100 constituancies that voted out have had a swing of opinion in the opposite direction now. Then if you factor in the ex-pats who are British Citizens and can vote in an election but were for some reason excluded from being allowed to vote in the one thing that actually affects them we wouldn't even be having this discussion now. By the way, good luck thinking you will get British people working in the fields or cleaning toilets etc without wanting to be paid 20 quid an hour (for some reason the minimum wage is beneath what some British people want, despite it being higher than in most of Europe already). A lot of British people don't seem to understand that the UK Government can in fact set its own rules about people coming from the EU. They just chose not to do it, but everyone still blames the EU. Here in Germany if you come from another EU State you can't simply start claiming benefits (which seems to be what most British people are moaning about) and unlike the UK, Germany did not permit people from the new EU States freedom of movement in the first two years of their entry in the Union (IIRC). Despite my username, I am British, but reading some of the venom and outright lies spread about the EU and Europeans (especially the hatred towards a lot of the former Eastern Bloc Countries people) really does make me ashamed to be British at the moment.

However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group. What will be a problem is the chaos caused by the immigration system now with every non UK Citizen having to be screened coming in to the UK. The queues at most of the UK Airports are bad enough now, so I imagine a lot of potential tourists from Europe will be put off when they find out they are going to be queuing up at immigration for hours on end when they land.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:44 am

LTU330 wrote:
However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group.


The European Aviation Safety Agency or EASA is an agency of the European Union. So that means that when Brittian has left the EU, they are also out of all its agencies, thus also the EASA. They aren't kicked out, they decided to leave. And that's why there will be administrative problems with real-world consequences if there is no-deal Brexit: flights will stop and Airbus's wings will be unusable. That is the simple but harsh answer to the question of the OP.
After a marriage of 40 years, you need to work something out or you will have problems, new spare parts and new engines of RR (if made in the UK) will be unusable. All these kind of agencies were EU, not local, for good reasons, with Brexit, Britain needs to form their own agencies and they need to be validated as a 3rd country agencies if no deal is reached. The no-deal option isn't a real option for all involved, but mostly to the UK itself, hence the cliff edge.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
f4f3a
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:49 am

Just to point out that airbus has many components made outside the eu. As does Boeing outside the us . Half of the products or more are made in China that are sold in eu . As long as the product complied with eu rules it can be sold . The only difference is that tax will have to be applied . The problem is this will create a huge backlog at the borders as no infrastructure is in place .
The uk based airlines uk operation will still function as g reg aircraft will be recognised by the caa . What will not be will those aircraft flying internal routes in Europe or having European aoc being flown or trained by uk licensed personelle.
I think the biggest issue will be with ba and virgin. They will need to change ownership structure as they will need to be uk owned 51 per to fly to us in any open sky arrangement . I’m sure the politicians on both sides will be under pressure by the big companies to come to an agreement at the eleventh hour
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:57 am

I think that is not a correct assessment, f4f3a, as it is CAA is operating under the wings of EASA, that will seas hence the problem. The agreement with China probably also will see oversight from EASA or they have recognized the local authorities to do this oversight. Both need a post-Brexit-deal. I do subscribe to your view that an agreement will be reached at the eleventh hour or at least one minute to twelve, probably along the lines that the CAA will be under the wings of the EASA for now and Brittian will still be part of that agencies (and probably a few others as well).
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:17 am

LTU330 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

We'll see how your little experiment will go.


The experiment over 17 million people want to happen. More than the population of the Netherlands.

Bye bye EU. It’s not been fun.


You make it sound like most of the Country wants out. 52% of those who voted wanted out. that means that infact 48% of them didn't want out, and independant polls like the one two weeks ago now show that more than 100 constituancies that voted out have had a swing of opinion in the opposite direction now. Then if you factor in the ex-pats who are British Citizens and can vote in an election but were for some reason excluded from being allowed to vote in the one thing that actually affects them we wouldn't even be having this discussion now. By the way, good luck thinking you will get British people working in the fields or cleaning toilets etc without wanting to be paid 20 quid an hour (for some reason the minimum wage is beneath what some British people want, despite it being higher than in most of Europe already). A lot of British people don't seem to understand that the UK Government can in fact set its own rules about people coming from the EU. They just chose not to do it, but everyone still blames the EU. Here in Germany if you come from another EU State you can't simply start claiming benefits (which seems to be what most British people are moaning about) and unlike the UK, Germany did not permit people from the new EU States freedom of movement in the first two years of their entry in the Union (IIRC). Despite my username, I am British, but reading some of the venom and outright lies spread about the EU and Europeans (especially the hatred towards a lot of the former Eastern Bloc Countries people) really does make me ashamed to be British at the moment.

However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group. What will be a problem is the chaos caused by the immigration system now with every non UK Citizen having to be screened coming in to the UK. The queues at most of the UK Airports are bad enough now, so I imagine a lot of potential tourists from Europe will be put off when they find out they are going to be queuing up at immigration for hours on end when they land.


It’s time to take back control :checkmark:
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:24 am

Arion640 wrote:
LTU330 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

The experiment over 17 million people want to happen. More than the population of the Netherlands.

Bye bye EU. It’s not been fun.


You make it sound like most of the Country wants out. 52% of those who voted wanted out. that means that infact 48% of them didn't want out, and independant polls like the one two weeks ago now show that more than 100 constituancies that voted out have had a swing of opinion in the opposite direction now. Then if you factor in the ex-pats who are British Citizens and can vote in an election but were for some reason excluded from being allowed to vote in the one thing that actually affects them we wouldn't even be having this discussion now. By the way, good luck thinking you will get British people working in the fields or cleaning toilets etc without wanting to be paid 20 quid an hour (for some reason the minimum wage is beneath what some British people want, despite it being higher than in most of Europe already). A lot of British people don't seem to understand that the UK Government can in fact set its own rules about people coming from the EU. They just chose not to do it, but everyone still blames the EU. Here in Germany if you come from another EU State you can't simply start claiming benefits (which seems to be what most British people are moaning about) and unlike the UK, Germany did not permit people from the new EU States freedom of movement in the first two years of their entry in the Union (IIRC). Despite my username, I am British, but reading some of the venom and outright lies spread about the EU and Europeans (especially the hatred towards a lot of the former Eastern Bloc Countries people) really does make me ashamed to be British at the moment.

However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group. What will be a problem is the chaos caused by the immigration system now with every non UK Citizen having to be screened coming in to the UK. The queues at most of the UK Airports are bad enough now, so I imagine a lot of potential tourists from Europe will be put off when they find out they are going to be queuing up at immigration for hours on end when they land.


It’s time to take back control :checkmark:

(at all cost, right?)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
Posts: 2156
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:32 am

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
LTU330 wrote:

You make it sound like most of the Country wants out. 52% of those who voted wanted out. that means that infact 48% of them didn't want out, and independant polls like the one two weeks ago now show that more than 100 constituancies that voted out have had a swing of opinion in the opposite direction now. Then if you factor in the ex-pats who are British Citizens and can vote in an election but were for some reason excluded from being allowed to vote in the one thing that actually affects them we wouldn't even be having this discussion now. By the way, good luck thinking you will get British people working in the fields or cleaning toilets etc without wanting to be paid 20 quid an hour (for some reason the minimum wage is beneath what some British people want, despite it being higher than in most of Europe already). A lot of British people don't seem to understand that the UK Government can in fact set its own rules about people coming from the EU. They just chose not to do it, but everyone still blames the EU. Here in Germany if you come from another EU State you can't simply start claiming benefits (which seems to be what most British people are moaning about) and unlike the UK, Germany did not permit people from the new EU States freedom of movement in the first two years of their entry in the Union (IIRC). Despite my username, I am British, but reading some of the venom and outright lies spread about the EU and Europeans (especially the hatred towards a lot of the former Eastern Bloc Countries people) really does make me ashamed to be British at the moment.

However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group. What will be a problem is the chaos caused by the immigration system now with every non UK Citizen having to be screened coming in to the UK. The queues at most of the UK Airports are bad enough now, so I imagine a lot of potential tourists from Europe will be put off when they find out they are going to be queuing up at immigration for hours on end when they land.


It’s time to take back control :checkmark:

(at all cost, right?)


Yes. I don’t want to live in a superstate 10 years down the line.
223 319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:42 am

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

It’s time to take back control :checkmark:

(at all cost, right?)


Yes. I don’t want to live in a superstate 10 years down the line.


So this is the real reason you want a Brexit at all cost: being afraid of something that might happen in 10 years?

Do you want Brittian to fall apart? Then you are part of even a smaller state, England I presume. Or perhaps a county is the right size for you? Or perhaps only a city with some surrounding farmland?
Some problems can't be tackled at a national level, so on a supranational level it might be solved, so why not do this at this level in a permanent structure? You have to deal with problems at a so low level as possible.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4890
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:58 am

Dutchy wrote:
LTU330 wrote:
However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group.


The European Aviation Safety Agency or EASA is an agency of the European Union. So that means that when Brittian has left the EU, they are also out of all its agencies, thus also the EASA. They aren't kicked out, they decided to leave. And that's why there will be administrative problems with real-world consequences if there is no-deal Brexit: flights will stop and Airbus's wings will be unusable. That is the simple but harsh answer to the question of the OP.
After a marriage of 40 years, you need to work something out or you will have problems, new spare parts and new engines of RR (if made in the UK) will be unusable. All these kind of agencies were EU, not local, for good reasons, with Brexit, Britain needs to form their own agencies and they need to be validated as a 3rd country agencies if no deal is reached. The no-deal option isn't a real option for all involved, but mostly to the UK itself, hence the cliff edge.

Dutchy: You are forgetting a very major point, for aviation technical areas, the UK IS A MEMBER OF ICAO, independently of the EU. It can simply use existing EASA rules/regulations by adopting them under UK law. As an ICAO member ALL other members HAVE to recognise them, under ICAO rules unless they are shown to be deficient. The EU is NOT a member of ICAO.
Undoubtedly there will be disruption but not the fall off a cliff you envisage

Gemuser
.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 7600
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:15 am

Gemuser wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
LTU330 wrote:
However, back on topic, there is no way that flights will simply have to stop or RR Engines suddenly become unusable. The UK will still be part of EASA. You don't just get kicked out of an organization like that because of Brexit, just like British Airways won't just get kicked out of the IAG Group.


The European Aviation Safety Agency or EASA is an agency of the European Union. So that means that when Brittian has left the EU, they are also out of all its agencies, thus also the EASA. They aren't kicked out, they decided to leave. And that's why there will be administrative problems with real-world consequences if there is no-deal Brexit: flights will stop and Airbus's wings will be unusable. That is the simple but harsh answer to the question of the OP.
After a marriage of 40 years, you need to work something out or you will have problems, new spare parts and new engines of RR (if made in the UK) will be unusable. All these kind of agencies were EU, not local, for good reasons, with Brexit, Britain needs to form their own agencies and they need to be validated as a 3rd country agencies if no deal is reached. The no-deal option isn't a real option for all involved, but mostly to the UK itself, hence the cliff edge.

Dutchy: You are forgetting a very major point, for aviation technical areas, the UK IS A MEMBER OF ICAO, independently of the EU. It can simply use existing EASA rules/regulations by adopting them under UK law. As an ICAO member ALL other members HAVE to recognise them, under ICAO rules unless they are shown to be deficient. The EU is NOT a member of ICAO.
Undoubtedly there will be disruption but not the fall off a cliff you envisage

Gemuser
.


So you disagree with the EU commission.

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/tr ... nsport.pdf
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
reidar76
Posts: 434
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:19 am

Dutchy wrote:
The European Aviation Safety Agency or EASA is an agency of the European Union. So that means that when Brittian has left the EU, they are also out of all its agencies, thus also the EASA. They aren't kicked out, they decided to leave. And that's why there will be administrative problems with real-world consequences if there is no-deal Brexit: flights will stop and Airbus's wings will be unusable. That is the simple but harsh answer to the question of the OP.
After a marriage of 40 years, you need to work something out or you will have problems, new spare parts and new engines of RR (if made in the UK) will be unusable. All these kind of agencies were EU, not local, for good reasons, with Brexit, Britain needs to form their own agencies and they need to be validated as a 3rd country agencies if no deal is reached. The no-deal option isn't a real option for all involved, but mostly to the UK itself, hence the cliff edge.


This post sums up the hard realities of BREXIT in a clear manner. Thanks, @Dutchy. Those hard realities is the reason why a transition period is needed. The UK government is unprepared, and will not be able to duplicate all those governmental functions that is now "outsourced" to the EU, in just a few months.

A common misconception is that everything will be fine, if only the UK and EU reach a deal. The Withdrawal Agreement will not solve these issues, it will only give the UK government time (1 year and 9 months) to form their own agencies so that responsibilities, work, authority and control can be transferred from the EU to the UK in an orderly fashion.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 2230
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:00 am

Gemuser wrote:
You are forgetting a very major point, for aviation technical areas, the UK IS A MEMBER OF ICAO, independently of the EU. It can simply use existing EASA rules/regulations by adopting them under UK law. As an ICAO member ALL other members HAVE to recognise them, under ICAO rules unless they are shown to be deficient. The EU is NOT a member of ICAO.
Undoubtedly there will be disruption but not the fall off a cliff you envisage

Gemuser
.


They still need to adopt them though, which means passing them through the parliament. Given how many laws would have to be adopted (and not just in aviation), there is a pretty good chance that there could be disruptions in case of a hard brexit. The Economist had an article on this subject a while ago. Back then, the British parliament would have to pass something like 500 laws each day in order to achieve it by the exit date, quite impossible.

Either way, I will make sure to stay far away from British airports and airlines in those days, regardless of what deal is or isn't made.

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