Boeing74741R
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:33 am

tommy1808 wrote:
The no-deal Brexit effects will be in the low single digits for all EU countries, RoI is looking at 4% GDP loss and that is the hardest hit EU country.


If we look at tourism, it's clear there are certain parts of EU nations (e.g. the Costas, Balearic/Canary Islands of Spain, Algarve in Portugal, Greek islands, south of France) whose economies rely on tourism and are popular with British holidaymakers. As mentioned yesterday, I can't see how both the UK and EU will simply allow a situation to occur where flights must stop the day after Brexit, but if that was to happen then no matter how short-term or otherwise this stoppage might be, the governments of nations that get a lot of British tourists will be under huge pressure from the affected regions to get the EU to come to an arrangement that allows flights to resume regardless of the rhetoric about the ball being in the UK's court (which in many ways it is).

I know it's not just the UK where some of the aforementioned parts get tourists from, but some places get more British tourists than others and there will be implications for the countries in question if hotel rooms/resorts are empty and businesses such as bars, cafes, restaurants, shops, golf courses, taxi drivers etc. lose a lot of trade and risk going bust. I can't see tourists from other nations coming in sufficient numbers to make up for any sudden (or big) drop in British tourists.
Last edited by Boeing74741R on Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:37 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
JayBCNLON wrote:

Speaking of a “flood” of people is clearly xenophobic. Speaking of it when it just isn’t there is also xenophobic. Not being aware of it is dangerous.


So are the Australians Xenophobic then?


Actually, yes.

And by the way, just about every country in the world has a large number of people banging on about immigration (the French used to resent the British buying up all their old farmhouses...) - it's just a fear of change.

Edit: posted this before I got to the request to take it outside...


Well if the French don’t like it, they are the only ones with the power to change it.
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Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:42 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
The no-deal Brexit effects will be in the low single digits for all EU countries, RoI is looking at 4% GDP loss and that is the hardest hit EU country.


If we look at tourism, it's clear there are certain parts of EU nations (e.g. the Costas, Balearic/Canary Islands of Spain, Algarve in Portugal, Greek islands, south of France) whose economies rely on tourism and are popular with British holidaymakers. As mentioned yesterday, I can't see how both the UK and EU will simply allow a situation to occur where flights must stop the day after Brexit, but if that was to happen then no matter how short-term or otherwise this stoppage might be, the governments of nations that get a lot of British tourists will be under huge pressure from the affected regions to get the EU to come to an arrangement that allows flights to resume regardless of the rhetoric about the ball being in the UK's court (which in many ways it is).

I know it's not just the UK where some of the aforementioned parts get tourists from, but some places get more British tourists than others and there will be implications for the countries in question if hotel rooms/resorts are empty and businesses such as bars, cafes, restaurants, shops, golf courses, taxi drivers etc. lose a lot of trade and risk going bust. I can't see tourists from other nations coming in sufficient numbers to make up for any sudden (or big) drop in British tourists.


Agreed.

And at the same time KLM has a huge UK network feeding its AMS hub, so it’s certainly not in the interest of the Dutch Government to allow flights to stop. To a lesser extent, FRA and CDG see feed from UK airports too.

It’s not in anyones interests. Some of the Europhiles feel it’s a great triumph seeing flights stop. Until there’s mass unemployment in the costas....
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tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:56 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
the governments of nations that get a lot of British tourists will be under huge pressure from the affected regions to get the EU to come to an arrangement that allows flights to resume regardless of the rhetoric about the ball being in the UK's court (which in many ways it is).


....and if that deal is not in line with EU treaties the ECJ will end the deal about as fast as an aircraft taxies to the runway....

The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.

best regards
Thomas
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Boeing74741R
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:09 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.


I don't disagree. Quite frankly, I'm annoyed that the UK government keeps talking about 'no deal' as though it's a strong possibility instead of putting in more effort towards reaching a deal or calling off Brexit.

What I'm referring to is a situation where flights must stop. If it gets to a point where 'no deal' means a temporary dispensation to continue with the status quo is needed to prevent flights from stopping in the short-term until a more permanent arrangement is agreed upon, then that is what needs to happen. It might mean pride being swallowed on both sides in the name of pragmatism, but there's nothing to be gained from that other than point scoring and mucking around with the lives of millions of people.

I can't see how it will be acceptable for flights to stop given that in both the UK and the EU27 it will come down to the respective governments to deal with the fallout domestically such as economic shocks, citizens stranded, people out of work etc.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:16 pm

Arion640 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

So are the Australians Xenophobic then?


Actually, yes.

And by the way, just about every country in the world has a large number of people banging on about immigration (the French used to resent the British buying up all their old farmhouses...) - it's just a fear of change.

Edit: posted this before I got to the request to take it outside...


Well if the French don’t like it, they are the only ones with the power to change it.


Way to miss my point.

I'll say it again in a different way: people *ALWAYS* blame immigrants for change they believe to be negative. The truth is usually that things aren't as bad as those people think and the immigrants aren't to blame anyway.

To put it yet another way - people in every country I've ever lived or stayed in believes that their way of life is being eroded by immigrants... yet overall everyone's quality of life is improving - ergo: that view of immigration is complete balls.

I say this as someone who has been an "immigrant" most of my life - and get told "oh, but you're not that type of immigrant" whenever I point it out.
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tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:20 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
What I'm referring to is a situation where flights must stop. If it gets to a point where 'no deal' means a temporary dispensation to continue with the status quo is needed to prevent flights from stopping in the short-term until a more permanent arrangement is agreed upon, then that is what needs to happen. It might mean pride being swallowed on both sides in the name of pragmatism


they would probably use mechanisms used for humanitarian aid/disaster relieve. But that won´t fly people into vacation, just get stranded people back.

but there's nothing to be gained from that other than point scoring and mucking around with the lives of millions of people.


If that would score points there would have been ink on paper months ago. No one would risk even giving the impression that a no-deal Brexit is remotely possible if that scored points.

I am pretty certain that, should the UK really decide to throw itself onto that sword, the EU will gladly take a steak knife before removing its own backbone.

best regards
Thomas
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LupineChemist
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:44 pm

Yeah, this is not a discussion about immigration and unless it will specifically be about how they will be flying to/from the UK after E-Day.

Regardless the fear I'm seeing here just seems to be an echo from history of only a century ago among. While clearly even the worst case scenario for Brexit is nowhere near comparable to WWI, the idea that "It can't happen because nobody wants it and the consequences would be too dire" should have been learned.

The lesson being that strong institutions working together prevent chaos and I just don't see the institutional build-up required on the part of the UK required to make this transitions at all reasonable. I have no idea what goes on behind closed doors, but it really appears nobody is close to having any sort of bilateral deal and just assumes it would be too horrible to let happen so therefore won't, which just seems erroneous to my mind.

I mean, UK lived without flights to the EU for quite some time in 2010 thanks to Eyejoeioajfakdkull volcano(I think that's how Icelandic works, just mash keys, right?) so it clearly wouldn't be earth shattering, but it also means it's not as big of a brinksmanship threat as people might think.
 
Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:14 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:

Actually, yes.

And by the way, just about every country in the world has a large number of people banging on about immigration (the French used to resent the British buying up all their old farmhouses...) - it's just a fear of change.

Edit: posted this before I got to the request to take it outside...


Well if the French don’t like it, they are the only ones with the power to change it.


Way to miss my point.

I'll say it again in a different way: people *ALWAYS* blame immigrants for change they believe to be negative. The truth is usually that things aren't as bad as those people think and the immigrants aren't to blame anyway.

To put it yet another way - people in every country I've ever lived or stayed in believes that their way of life is being eroded by immigrants... yet overall everyone's quality of life is improving - ergo: that view of immigration is complete balls.

I say this as someone who has been an "immigrant" most of my life - and get told "oh, but you're not that type of immigrant" whenever I point it out.


Back to my previous point. There is only a certain amount of space available in Britain.
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:32 pm

Arion640 wrote:
There is only a certain amount of space available in Britain.


Britain is not special and not at all full. This is another thing every country in the world complains about... it's called population growth and it is global.

Try living in the Netherlands or Singapore... I have.
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Arion640
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:18 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
There is only a certain amount of space available in Britain.


Britain is not special and not at all full. This is another thing every country in the world complains about... it's called population growth and it is global.

Try living in the Netherlands or Singapore... I have.


I have visited Singapore, Netherlands and Hong Kong and have seen the issues that are being faced, I do not want my children to suffer with the overcrowding 20/40/60 years down the line, if the UK continues with the level of population growth it is experiencing.
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vc10
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:24 pm

I thought the title of this topic was "The effect of a no deal Brexit on aviation" so why are people talking about over population etc
 
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:41 pm

vc10 wrote:
I thought the title of this topic was "The effect of a no deal Brexit on aviation" so why are people talking about over population etc


Fully agree. Please note that this is the aviation related discussion thread about Brexit, so please stay on topic otherwise this thread will be locked.

A general discssion thread can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1399389
 
Jomar777
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:44 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
All in all: Flights will NOT stop. Deals WILL be struck. Airports will NOT close even temporarily. People will NOT be stuck anywhere..


Only this is the no-deal thread and not the last minute deal thread.
You may have noticed that their isn't much disagreement on a no deal exit being unlikely, but then again Brexit seems to go from one "oh.. who would have thought" to the next, so who knows. And if betting odds are anything to go by....

Best regards
Thomas


Get that, my friend but, even with a no deal being the end scenario, certain areas will be easier and crucial to negotiate than others. Aviation, for example is one of them. the other, I believe, will probably be defence and security. You could add others like Health, for example...

So, without getting too much into details, even on a NO DEAL, would still mean agreements on the above areas.

All the best
Jomar
 
YIMBY
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:50 pm

VS11 wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:
Is there any inclination about how the structure of IAG will have to change as it's a Spanish company that owns a UK airline?


IAG structure does not need to change but the ownership of BA will. IAG will own 49% of the holding company that owns BA so that BA stays majority British-owned.


EU law says that to get an European AOC, the airline has to be more than 50 % owned (and effectively controlled) by European Union citizens (natural persons) or governments of EU members states. Intermediary holding companies are not considered, but he chain must be followed to the ultimate personal owners. That is, for example Qatar foundation seated in Luxembourg (or where ever) will not be European, and no TopCo/SubCo structure will help.

If UK imposes a similar law, the only way to save IAG as is in hard Brexit is double nationals. New owners are required for any arrangement, also the partial splitting.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:34 pm

YIMBY wrote:
VS11 wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:
Is there any inclination about how the structure of IAG will have to change as it's a Spanish company that owns a UK airline?


IAG structure does not need to change but the ownership of BA will. IAG will own 49% of the holding company that owns BA so that BA stays majority British-owned.


EU law says that to get an European AOC, the airline has to be more than 50 % owned (and effectively controlled) by European Union citizens (natural persons) or governments of EU members states. Intermediary holding companies are not considered, but he chain must be followed to the ultimate personal owners. That is, for example Qatar foundation seated in Luxembourg (or where ever) will not be European, and no TopCo/SubCo structure will help.

If UK imposes a similar law, the only way to save IAG as is in hard Brexit is double nationals. New owners are required for any arrangement, also the partial splitting.


Irish nationals would probably also be allowed since Irish citizens are legally not considered foreigners in the UK, that has nothing to do with the EU.
 
JayBCNLON
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:32 pm

What’s different with the Irish? Irish ownership is EU-ownership. Isn’t Brexit about keeping EU nationals out? There are just EU nationals, there aren’t good and bad ones. Out of 27 we are one :)
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:38 pm

JayBCNLON wrote:
What’s different with the Irish? Irish ownership is EU-ownership. Isn’t Brexit about keeping EU nationals out? There are just EU nationals, there aren’t good and bad ones. Out of 27 we are one :)


Those born in Northern Ireland can choose to have British citizenship, Irish citizenship, or both. However I'm pretty sure this doesn't extend to those born in the Republic of Ireland.
 
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Luxair
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:53 am

 
LupineChemist
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:00 am

The government has posted some more guidance relating to aviation specifically.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rexit-deal

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rexit-deal
 
mxaxai
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:08 am

This would mean that parts manufactured and certified by organisations approved by the CAA could not be installed on EU registered aircraft. [...] maintenance organisations approved by the CAA could not perform maintenance on EU registered aircraft

EU-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate wholly within the UK (for example from Heathrow to Edinburgh) and UK-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate intra-EU air services. [...] For airlines from one of the 17 non-EU countries [including Canada, Israel, Norway, Switzerland and the USA] with whom air services to the UK are currently provided for by virtue of the UK’s membership of the EU, replacement arrangements will be in place before exit day.
[...] EU airlines must be majority owned and effectively controlled by EU nationals to qualify for an operating licence. Following EU exit, the UK would not impose nationality restrictions on the conditions for an operating licence. However, UK airlines would also need to consider whether the nationality and level of investment of their shareholders is permitted under the conditions of the ASAs under which they operate their services.

Those seem like the largest changes. Anything else will continue nearly unchanged for at least 2 years because the UK will adopt EU law & regulations as national law, and will accept EASA issued licenses as if they were CAA issued. They also offer to exchange the licenses if need be.

I do wonder if those replacement arrangements will be comparable to todays agreements. I believe most are open-skies treaties.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:25 am

mxaxai wrote:

I do wonder if those replacement arrangements will be comparable to todays agreements. I believe most are open-skies treaties.


Isn't the default reverting back to previous agreements?

For the US, it could go back to Bermuda II and have that statement be true. Would still be a massive mess.

Though considering the BA TATL JV with AA and the fact that VS is Delta UK, I'd imagine there'd be quite a bit of lobbying on the US side to keep the flow going.
 
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:37 am

LupineChemist wrote:
...

Isn't the default reverting back to previous agreements?

For the US, it could go back to Bermuda II and have that statement be true. ...


If memory serves me well, a "old" treaty that was superseded by a later treaty is typically retired (sometimes including sunset clauses and all that), and apparently "old" one cannot be just unilaterally reactivated, if a current one is no longer valid. It takes two to tango, and if the UK, for whatever reason, wanted Bermuda II to be back, the US has to agree. And this is where it would get very interesting...
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Bongodog1964
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:50 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
the governments of nations that get a lot of British tourists will be under huge pressure from the affected regions to get the EU to come to an arrangement that allows flights to resume regardless of the rhetoric about the ball being in the UK's court (which in many ways it is).


....and if that deal is not in line with EU treaties the ECJ will end the deal about as fast as an aircraft taxies to the runway....

The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.

best regards
Thomas


This is the intransigence that has got is to the point we are at now ""The UK needs to make a proposal that is inline with EU law"

if it hasn't escaped your attention the UK for better or worse has decided to leave the EU, at the point of leaving it is up to the UK whether it wishes to adhere in future to EU law, the usual way for these things to be decided is for the two sides to sit down and reach a compromise, this is impossible if one side refuses to enter into any meaningful discussion.
 
mutu
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:54 am

Other than the UK/EU position which clearly would need to be renegotiated, the UK is also party to 17 "EU wide" bilaterals with third party countries (including USA). Guidance from HM Government is that many of these are already well advanced to be replicated as UK/third country with an intention they be in force from day 1 of a "hard Brexit". For all other countries the governing bilateral is YJ/Third country already and they stay in force unaffected.

Some thoughts:

As others have said the TATL JV's that exist would be hard to break up commercially and so long as either government does not think they are being used to stifle competition/rip off customers, then there is frankly no public interest in reigning them back. So it is likely they will continue to be recognised and new treaties reflect them.

The DL/AF/VS shareholding may need a modest reshape if UK adopts a less generous foreign ownership position (but historically the UK has called for more generous positions on a reciprocal basis). The IAG corporate ownership structure does I believe ensure each IAG carrier is technically a "local" carrier through the use of a "special powers" share held in trust but my memory of how it was explained is foggy now. But look up the original BA/IB merger shareholder communications and it is set out clearly there. So I suspect again there is no issue with the IAG share structure either.

No return to Bermuda II. Why would it? Totally redundant this day and age. The only casualty would be 1 of the US3 (reverting to 2 UK/2US carriers ex LHR) and I cant see any politician in the US "banishing to LGW" flights from MSY/AUS/BNA/SJC/SAN/PHX et al to LHR.

As for UK airlines losing rights for intra EU flying, BA doesn't do any, so no impact. EZY has an Austrian AOC and a UK AOC so believes it has this covered. FR has theoretically the most to lose as an Irish carrier operating a substantial network from the UK to mainland EU, and intra UK routes. So it would need to satisfy UK AOC rules under a new regime, or be restricted to flying UK/Ireland ex UK. Again I really cant see the UK authorities wanting to put the squeeze on FR and if EZY think they have this covered then it is a simple enough process for FR (given the relative size of their operations ex UK it would almost be logical in any event).

So I suspect there may be a hiccup along the way with a lot of paperwork to be agreed and signed, but fundamentally I cant see any likely prospect of any meaningful change to what we see today.
 
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:19 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
the governments of nations that get a lot of British tourists will be under huge pressure from the affected regions to get the EU to come to an arrangement that allows flights to resume regardless of the rhetoric about the ball being in the UK's court (which in many ways it is).


....and if that deal is not in line with EU treaties the ECJ will end the deal about as fast as an aircraft taxies to the runway....

The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.

best regards
Thomas


This is the intransigence that has got is to the point we are at now ""The UK needs to make a proposal that is inline with EU law"

if it hasn't escaped your attention the UK for better or worse has decided to leave the EU, at the point of leaving it is up to the UK whether it wishes to adhere in future to EU law, the usual way for these things to be decided is for the two sides to sit down and reach a compromise, this is impossible if one side refuses to enter into any meaningful discussion.


If Mexico and Canada told the US can have new NAFTA deal, but only if they ban firearms, that wouldn't fly either.
Any deal has to be in line with EU law, period. There are plenty of options that can be negotiated, but they have to be in line with EU law. Problem is that the UK wants the EU to break its law in order to maintain their red lines, which are not law, but arbitrary lines from a commitee meeting.

The side refusing to have meaningful discussions is the UK. Rge options where laid out before the vote. The rules where voted for by the UK government.

The UK leaving doesn't invalidate the EU body of laws, in their relation with the EU that law can't be violated. Same with the WTO, where the UK wants pretty much the same, and acts rather surprised how many countries day no to their WTO schedule.

Best regards
Thomas
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Bongodog1964
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:06 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

....and if that deal is not in line with EU treaties the ECJ will end the deal about as fast as an aircraft taxies to the runway....

The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.

best regards
Thomas


This is the intransigence that has got is to the point we are at now ""The UK needs to make a proposal that is inline with EU law"

if it hasn't escaped your attention the UK for better or worse has decided to leave the EU, at the point of leaving it is up to the UK whether it wishes to adhere in future to EU law, the usual way for these things to be decided is for the two sides to sit down and reach a compromise, this is impossible if one side refuses to enter into any meaningful discussion.


If Mexico and Canada told the US can have new NAFTA deal, but only if they ban firearms, that wouldn't fly either.
Any deal has to be in line with EU law, period. There are plenty of options that can be negotiated, but they have to be in line with EU law. Problem is that the UK wants the EU to break its law in order to maintain their red lines, which are not law, but arbitrary lines from a commitee meeting.

The side refusing to have meaningful discussions is the UK. Rge options where laid out before the vote. The rules where voted for by the UK government.

The UK leaving doesn't invalidate the EU body of laws, in their relation with the EU that law can't be violated. Same with the WTO, where the UK wants pretty much the same, and acts rather surprised how many countries day no to their WTO schedule.

Best regards
Thomas


You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:20 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:
You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.


Well duh!

You don't walk up to another country and say "I want to trade with you but only if it makes you break your laws".

An EU request to respect existing law is not intransigence - that is just ... reasonable in every way I can think of. Anything *else* would be utterly irresponsible.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:41 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.


Well duh!

You don't walk up to another country and say "I want to trade with you but only if it makes you break your laws".

An EU request to respect existing law is not intransigence - that is just ... reasonable in every way I can think of. Anything *else* would be utterly irresponsible.


Laws can, and often are changed, that's why we have parliaments DOH
 
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CARST
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:07 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:

This is the intransigence that has got is to the point we are at now ""The UK needs to make a proposal that is inline with EU law"

if it hasn't escaped your attention the UK for better or worse has decided to leave the EU, at the point of leaving it is up to the UK whether it wishes to adhere in future to EU law, the usual way for these things to be decided is for the two sides to sit down and reach a compromise, this is impossible if one side refuses to enter into any meaningful discussion.


If Mexico and Canada told the US can have new NAFTA deal, but only if they ban firearms, that wouldn't fly either.
Any deal has to be in line with EU law, period. There are plenty of options that can be negotiated, but they have to be in line with EU law. Problem is that the UK wants the EU to break its law in order to maintain their red lines, which are not law, but arbitrary lines from a commitee meeting.

The side refusing to have meaningful discussions is the UK. Rge options where laid out before the vote. The rules where voted for by the UK government.

The UK leaving doesn't invalidate the EU body of laws, in their relation with the EU that law can't be violated. Same with the WTO, where the UK wants pretty much the same, and acts rather surprised how many countries day no to their WTO schedule.

Best regards
Thomas


You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.


The UK is in the way, way, waaaayyyy weaker position in this whole mess.

The EU can allow themselves to take this "take it or leave it stance". Not only because the EU together is larger or economically stronger, but because the UK insists on keeping a lot of EU-benefits, while wanting out at the same time.

There are exactly three scenarios:
1) You are not an EU member and make new deals on everything with the EU (bilateral agreements). The UK missed that ship and it's actually too late to make most contracts.
2) You are not an EU member, but still adhere to ALL EU laws without any exceptions. See Norway or Switzerland. That has a lot advantages, but also the disadvantages of giving up control, because you have no voting rights in the EU.
3) You are an EU member. (Eventually also a Schengen member, but that is optional. Same with getting the EU-currency, the Euro.)

What the UK wants, is all benefits of being in the EU (no. 3), with being not in the EU (no. 1), which would be no. 2, but they want to make choices on what benefits to take up (like free market access without taxes and duties) and on what "burdens" of the EU to carry, because the membership comes with a few perceived(!!!) disadvantages, like free movement of people.

The UK will loose this. Make a choice, door 1, 2 or 3. There is no other option given and possible.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:14 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.


Well duh!

You don't walk up to another country and say "I want to trade with you but only if it makes you break your laws".

An EU request to respect existing law is not intransigence - that is just ... reasonable in every way I can think of. Anything *else* would be utterly irresponsible.


Laws can, and often are changed, that's why we have parliaments DOH


So - you are seriously suggesting that it's reasonable for little UK to demand big EU change its laws because little UK wants to trade?!

You are more delusional than I gave you credit for.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
VSMUT
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:24 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.


Well duh!

You don't walk up to another country and say "I want to trade with you but only if it makes you break your laws".

An EU request to respect existing law is not intransigence - that is just ... reasonable in every way I can think of. Anything *else* would be utterly irresponsible.


Laws can, and often are changed, that's why we have parliaments DOH


Not constitutional laws, which this is more or less what we are talking about.
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:41 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:

Well duh!

You don't walk up to another country and say "I want to trade with you but only if it makes you break your laws".

An EU request to respect existing law is not intransigence - that is just ... reasonable in every way I can think of. Anything *else* would be utterly irresponsible.


Laws can, and often are changed, that's why we have parliaments DOH


So - you are seriously suggesting that it's reasonable for little UK to demand big EU change its laws because little UK wants to trade?!

You are more delusional than I gave you credit for.


Delusional ? that's the definition of someone who is convinced of the infallibility of the EU, the way things are going with the rise of the anti immigration parties in the EU, the whole lot may well come crashing down in the next decade.

As you are "someonein TLS" I assume that you are aware that the entire economy of TLS might collapse if you had your way on April 1st 2019. How long would it take to build an alternative wing facility ?

We're in this together, for good or worse and both sides need to be aware of that.
 
tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:57 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
You just can't see it can you ? how can you accuse the UK of not being willing to negotiate when you keep stating "any deal has to be in line with EU law" That is "take it or leave it" not negotiation. The intransigence is on the EU side.


Nope. It is all on the UK side. One of the rare cases where all blame is one one side. You seem to forget that the UK government voted "yes" to every single provision the EU now applies to the situation. The UK is treated exactly the way it wanted countries outside the EU to be treated.

Every treaty ever has to be in line with the law of the participants in that treaty. Countries don´t violate their own law with new treaties and usually can´t. The UK can legally agree to a broad variety of deals, because all deals the EU can offer are currently legal under UK law, the EU can only agree to a deal in line with the EU legal body, or the ECJ will sack the agreement. Accommodation outside the law is impossible and it is in no way that the EU has a "take it or leave it" approach, they laid out a broad variety of possible deals, the UK just has to pick one and get on with negotiating the details.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 2526
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:41 pm

This is an aviation/Brexit thread, and a fairly technical one to boot. Generalized statements on Brexit/EU are out of order.

As I see it this is a fairly straightforward proposal that is designed to keep planes in the air whatever happens. It is provisional in that it needs subsequent negotiations preferably between now and next year if there is a hard Brexit. I don't see how GB could be part of EASA, anymore than FAA is an organization of the US, not an association the states or one that another country could join. GB could buy into and be an observer of EASA, agree to buy into all of its rules, but that would leave it subject, in aviation, to EASA or EU courts.
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tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:49 pm

CARST wrote:
The EU can allow themselves to take this "take it or leave it stance". .


The EU´s apporach is not "take it or leave it", it is "there are the options that are legally possible, chose one and we negotiate the details". The UK can have anything between WTO and Norway model, what they can´t have is picking what they like best out of WTO and Norway model.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7857
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:00 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
the governments of nations that get a lot of British tourists will be under huge pressure from the affected regions to get the EU to come to an arrangement that allows flights to resume regardless of the rhetoric about the ball being in the UK's court (which in many ways it is).


....and if that deal is not in line with EU treaties the ECJ will end the deal about as fast as an aircraft taxies to the runway....

The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.

best regards
Thomas


This is the intransigence that has got is to the point we are at now ""The UK needs to make a proposal that is inline with EU law"

if it hasn't escaped your attention the UK for better or worse has decided to leave the EU, at the point of leaving it is up to the UK whether it wishes to adhere in future to EU law, the usual way for these things to be decided is for the two sides to sit down and reach a compromise, this is impossible if one side refuses to enter into any meaningful discussion.


You seem to have misunderstood something. The UK can do whatever they like themselves after Brexit, but the EU can not offer deals that do not fit EU law or rules. So UK proposals, that the EU can not accept are a bit useless.
 
jomur
Posts: 156
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:11 pm

There are certain countries in the Eu that will want to keep access to the UK markets for their airlines so a deal will done which will probably be near enough the same as it is now.
The EU can make what ever changes it want to allow any treaty, the fact is they just don't want to to try and make sure no other country leaves and the EU just then collapses and the EU bureaucrats in Brussels and elsewhere will lose their comfy gravy train.

EU makes trade seals will loads of countries but they don't force their laws on them like they want to do to the UK.
 
tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:21 pm

jomur wrote:
EU makes trade seals will loads of countries but they don't force their laws on them like they want to do to the UK.


You have it the wrong way round. All those deals are in line with EU law. The other countries just don't ask for things they can't get. Canada or Japan didn't ask for single market access...

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
tommy1808
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:17 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Bongodog1964 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

....and if that deal is not in line with EU treaties the ECJ will end the deal about as fast as an aircraft taxies to the runway....

The UK needs to make a proposal that is in line with EU law, there are no two ways about it. The EU has offered all options that are in line with EU law, the UK just has to pick one.

best regards
Thomas


This is the intransigence that has got is to the point we are at now ""The UK needs to make a proposal that is inline with EU law"

if it hasn't escaped your attention the UK for better or worse has decided to leave the EU, at the point of leaving it is up to the UK whether it wishes to adhere in future to EU law, the usual way for these things to be decided is for the two sides to sit down and reach a compromise, this is impossible if one side refuses to enter into any meaningful discussion.


You seem to have misunderstood something. The UK can do whatever they like themselves after Brexit, but the EU can not offer deals that do not fit EU law or rules. So UK proposals, that the EU can not accept are a bit useless.


:checkmark:
Rule of law can directly impact aviation, as the public servants in the field can only apply the law. A UK pilot license is recognized in the EU because of EU treaties. Without a deal in place those treaties seize to apply no later then 2 years after notifying the EU of the intend to withdrawl. Those pilots will of course still be perfectly able to safely operate a flight, but on paper they won't have a valid license. That is the same reason why Muslim travel ban part.1 misfired the way it did. Because of good faith the US must have honoured valid visas of people already en-route, but since the EO didn't say so, those people where send back. Not because the immigration officers are evil, because by law they didn't have leeway to act different. Same will cause a lot of trouble after Brexit day, unless an agreement is in place.

Interestingly, because the UK plans to incorporate all EU legislation into national law by Brexit day, the recognition of EU licenses would become UK law, if the UK follows through with that plan, and EU licensing would still be valid in the UK.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
LupineChemist
Topic Author
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:09 pm

 
olle
Posts: 869
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:33 pm

IAG puts limitation on UK ownership in IAG.
 
mutu
Posts: 408
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:16 pm

olle wrote:
IAG puts limitation on UK ownership in IAG.


No it hasn't....It has put a limit on Non-EU/UK shareholders at the moment and is perfectly clear UK shareholders will NOT be considered Non-EU shareholders for this purpose (for now!)

Extract from the announcement below:

IAG confirms that Relevant UK Persons are not and will not be treated as Relevant Non-EU Persons and, therefore, are not and will not be subject to the restrictions on share acquisitions set out in this announcement, unless IAG notifies shareholders otherwise. IAG has no plans to issue such a notification.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 2526
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Re: What is the aviation impact of a no-deal Brexit?

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:22 pm

I don't have a link, but I believe the EU has announced a work-around for aviation to function for the rest of 2019.
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