MileHFL400
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B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:11 pm

Hey all.

With Etihad and United having both received their 1st B787-10 I wanted to re-examine future sales?

1. What’s the hold up on Emirates firming their order for 40?

2. Have the leasing companies managed to place more apart from with KLM and EVA?

3. American Airlines replacing 777-200’s?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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Momo1435
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:25 pm

KLMs 787-10 will come from the AF-KLM order, they are not leased. Apart from EVA only Vietnam Airlines has a known lease agreement with ALC. ALC has not announced any further orders, which is in line with the remaining 15 787-10s on order without engine selection. The only other leasing company with the 787-10 on order is GECAS, no announced deals for them. They did convert the majority of their order to the 787-9, all to be delivered to Suparna Airlines of China.

Emirates is not in a hurry, the 1st delivery is still years away. The engine selection is most likely linked to the stalled engine deal for their A380 order. Now that deal seems to be moving ahead anyway with RR it might also mean that the 787s will be powered by RR. If there's an engine deal it could mean that they will be firming up their Boeing deal soon as well.

As for AA, their 787s seat more passengers in a similar lay-out then their 777s. They just announced a last 789 order earlier this year. This pretty much shows where they are going with the 787. I could still see the 787-10 eventually joining their fleet, simply to increase the capacity, but for now they are just going for more 788s and 789s.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:33 pm

I'm sure sales will come soon, but the 78X 'competes' with the 789 for slots, and the 789 is more appealing at the moment (in terms of replacement cycle timing). It's a little bit like the A35K in that sense. I think AA will order them, BA should order more and the Chinese airlines will get around to them eventually. Those are the main ones.
 
columba
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:44 pm

I can imagine that Lufthansa will also order some in addition to their A350 fleet.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
MileHFL400
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:56 pm

columba wrote:
I can imagine that Lufthansa will also order some in addition to their A350 fleet.


Hmm any thing that points to this?

I know ANA only has 3 on order, will they order more?

Ethiopian? They seem to be ordering everything on sale that the moment!

Qatar Airways?

Saudia?

Kenya Airways?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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Momo1435
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:00 pm

For now we have the following confirmed current/future 787-10 operators.

Singapore Airlines
Etihad
United
ANA
EVA
KLM
BA
Saudia
Vietnam Airlines

EL AL should also be considered as a strong contender to operate the 787-10, they showed all 3 versions of the 787 on the image from the press release of their original order (not the MoU from way back in the days).
 
columba
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:24 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
columba wrote:
I can imagine that Lufthansa will also order some in addition to their A350 fleet.


Hmm any thing that points to this?


They just send out a reguest of proposal to Airbus and Boeing for 20 aircraft either more A350s or Dreamliners:
More information can be found here:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1406723&hilit=lufthansa
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
mig17
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:33 pm

columba wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
columba wrote:
I can imagine that Lufthansa will also order some in addition to their A350 fleet.


Hmm any thing that points to this?


They just send out a reguest of proposal to Airbus and Boeing for 20 aircraft either more A350s or Dreamliners:
More information can be found here:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1406723&hilit=lufthansa

Don't think Lufthansa want the -10. It is a carrot for Airbus, but what if ...
Air France when the time comes to replace 77E shall look at both A359 and 787-9 & 10.
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MIflyer12
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:34 pm

OP should be thinking about CASM/passenger count/range/cargo trade-offs. It's more complicated than '787-10s hold about as many people as 777-200ERs'.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:38 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
columba wrote:
I can imagine that Lufthansa will also order some in addition to their A350 fleet.


Hmm any thing that points to this?


The 787-10 would be a good replacement for LH's 4-class A330-300s. It has the range, gives a modest capacity increase too. But given how much traffic LH gets, I doubt they'd be interested in the smaller Dreamliners.

MIflyer12 wrote:
OP should be thinking about CASM/passenger count/range/cargo trade-offs. It's more complicated than '787-10s hold about as many people as 777-200ERs'.


I agree. 787-10s have more cargo capacity and less range than 777-200ERs, as well as substantially lower CASM. The issue is if LH absolutely needs to push the 777-200ER to close-to-maximum performance or not. If it doesn't, the 787-10 should be able to fit nicely in that role for LH. If it does, and/or if LH needs more performance for more cargo etc, A350-900s make the better choice.
Last edited by StudiodeKadent on Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:42 pm

Current 787-10 customers:

49 Singapore Airlines
30 Etihad Airways
25 Air Lease Corporation
18 EVA Air
14 United Airlines
12 British Airways
8 Air France–KLM
8 Unidentified Customer(s)
5 GECAS
3 All Nippon Airways

Most are part of bigger 787 orders, so the numbers will likely change over time.

Interestingly SQ is the biggest customer for the 787-10, they are also one the biggest A350-900 customer!
Last edited by keesje on Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
RJMAZ
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:48 pm

The 787-10 will be the highest selling 787 model in 10 years time.

Every engine PIP moves the sweet spot higher. Usually the stretch in the family has the lowest range so any improvement in range makes the stretch more versatile. This is why the A321NEO is now popular. The original A321CEO could only fly two thirds as far.

I expect wing tip extensions and improved engines to push the 787-10's range up to 7000nm
 
robbo2k
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:08 pm

787-10 optimal to 6000mil (asia routes , TATL US east coast to Europe) 787-10LR/ER not production because 777-8
A350-900 best for 6000-9000mil (transpacific routes and asia to europe)
 
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lightsaber
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:33 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The 787-10 will be the highest selling 787 model in 10 years time.

Every engine PIP moves the sweet spot higher. Usually the stretch in the family has the lowest range so any improvement in range makes the stretch more versatile. This is why the A321NEO is now popular. The original A321CEO could only fly two thirds as far.

I expect wing tip extensions and improved engines to push the 787-10's range up to 7000nm

I second this. GE is introducing CMC inlet guide vanes (blades before the turbine) and liners in the GE9X. That will obviously make it to the GEnX and LEAP-1x.

You are correct in that every PIP favors the longer variants. In simplistic terms, it compresses the cost difference. The most extreamely example is the A319. Going from memory, the earliest examples we're 8.5% cheaper to fly than the A320. I calculate the A319NEO is only about 3% cheaper than the A320NEO. e.g., only the A319 at first had engines that could make 20,000 cycles between overhauls. Now, there is zero maintenance advantage to the A319. The same trend will hold true of the 787-10.

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whywhyzee
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:40 pm

I could see AC ordering them for high volume TATL routes, but that will have to come once they feel comfortable with another period of significant growty, seeing as they have basicially just completed their widebody renewal project. The A333s have another decade left, and that fleet will likely continue to grow gradually short term.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:51 pm

The 787- 10 can only be produced at North Charleston, not at Everett, because the center section is made at North Charleston and is too long to be carried aboard a Dreamlifter. Right there, that limits potential 787-10 production to around half of total 787 production at any given time. Right now, the output is a good deal less than that, as it appears 787-10 frames are still taking longer to build than 787-9s. That will change as more are built. But for right now the 787-10 is quite capacity constrained.

And I believe prices are reflecting that. Boeing in the last couple years has started offering much more aggressive discounts on 787-9s. There’s no evidence that they’ve done the same, yet, with 787-10s. As long as that remains true, the 787-10 will be attractive only to those customers who can get a whole lot of revenue out of the marginal passenger and cargo capacity.

When Charleston is ready to crank out nothing but 787-10s, I suspect the real-world price of them will drop, and we’ll see quite a few more orders. I’d think anyone who flies A330-300s on regional or transatlantic missions could be a customer, as could existing 787 operators who are flying 777-200s on those sorts of missions (looking at you, AA).
 
kengo
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:57 pm

Korean Air is planning to order WBs in the near future and I think the 787-10 has a good chance of being picked for their short to medium routes currently being flown with A333s and B777s.

http://atwonline.com/airframes/cho-kore ... ody-orders
 
MileHFL400
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:12 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
I could see AC ordering them for high volume TATL routes, but that will have to come once they feel comfortable with another period of significant growty, seeing as they have basicially just completed their widebody renewal project. The A333s have another decade left, and that fleet will likely continue to grow gradually short term.


AC let their 787 options expire.

Has China Southern shown any interest?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
musman9853
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:14 pm

mig17 wrote:
columba wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:

Hmm any thing that points to this?


They just send out a reguest of proposal to Airbus and Boeing for 20 aircraft either more A350s or Dreamliners:
More information can be found here:
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... =lufthansa

Don't think Lufthansa want the -10. It is a carrot for Airbus, but what if ...
Air France when the time comes to replace 77E shall look at both A359 and 787-9 & 10.



yeah if lh is getting dreamliners they're prob gonna get -9s. the a350s cover the -10s job pretty decently
 
whywhyzee
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:25 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
I could see AC ordering them for high volume TATL routes, but that will have to come once they feel comfortable with another period of significant growty, seeing as they have basicially just completed their widebody renewal project. The A333s have another decade left, and that fleet will likely continue to grow gradually short term.


AC let their 787 options expire.

Has China Southern shown any interest?


That is incorrect, they have said that was a misunderstanding on the part of whoever reported that they expired. The options remain, as do the purchase rights. All they said was they weren't interested in using the options at this time, because given the cost and availability of used A330s, it makes sense to go that route, which they have.
 
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Polot
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:27 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
I could see AC ordering them for high volume TATL routes, but that will have to come once they feel comfortable with another period of significant growty, seeing as they have basicially just completed their widebody renewal project. The A333s have another decade left, and that fleet will likely continue to grow gradually short term.


AC let their 787 options expire.


AC still has 787 options “at excellent pricing” as per their Q3 earnings call.
 
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keesje
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:38 pm

The 787-10 has kind of the same "small wing" syndrome as the A321. It wants further, but lacks the wing
with 40t payload, (280 passengers, headwind, reserves and well filled cargo containers); <5000Nm

Image

5000Nm is to / from Asia. Where the growth is.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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frigatebird
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:45 pm

I see some candidates mentioned in this thread.
My 2 cents:
Likely: KE, LY. Top ups: KL, NH, BA.
Maybe: AA, LH, SV, AF, AC.
Not likely: ET, QR, KQ.

Some Chines carriers will also get likely get them. TG is a good candidate too. I still believe the 787-10 is perfect for EI, despite them operating an all-Airbus widebody fleet currently.
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MileHFL400
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:49 pm

frigatebird wrote:
I see some candidates mentioned in this thread.
My 2 cents:
Likely: KE, LY. Top ups: KL, NH, BA.
Maybe: AA, LH, SV, AF, AC.
Not likely: ET, QR, KQ.

Some Chines carriers will also get likely get them. TG is a good candidate too. I still believe the 787-10 is perfect for EI, despite them operating an all-Airbus widebody fleet currently.



Hmm. SV? I’m not too sure!
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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seabosdca
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:58 pm

keesje wrote:
The 787-10 has kind of the same "small wing" syndrome as the A321. It wants further, but lacks the wing
with 40t payload, (280 passengers, headwind, reserves and well filled cargo containers); <5000Nm

5000Nm is to / from Asia. Where the growth is.


Everything that has come out of Boeing indicates that the limit on the 787-10's MTOW (and that of the 787-9, for that matter) is the landing gear, not the wing. Not disputing that at higher weights the wing might be too small for optimum efficiency at long range, but it's the landing gear that imposes the hard limit.
 
musman9853
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:13 pm

seabosdca wrote:
The 787- 10 can only be produced at North Charleston, not at Everett, because the center section is made at North Charleston and is too long to be carried aboard a Dreamlifter. Right there, that limits potential 787-10 production to around half of total 787 production at any given time. Right now, the output is a good deal less than that, as it appears 787-10 frames are still taking longer to build than 787-9s. That will change as more are built. But for right now the 787-10 is quite capacity constrained.

And I believe prices are reflecting that. Boeing in the last couple years has started offering much more aggressive discounts on 787-9s. There’s no evidence that they’ve done the same, yet, with 787-10s. As long as that remains true, the 787-10 will be attractive only to those customers who can get a whole lot of revenue out of the marginal passenger and cargo capacity.

When Charleston is ready to crank out nothing but 787-10s, I suspect the real-world price of them will drop, and we’ll see quite a few more orders. I’d think anyone who flies A330-300s on regional or transatlantic missions could be a customer, as could existing 787 operators who are flying 777-200s on those sorts of missions (looking at you, AA).



there's plenty of room in charleston to expand
 
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Momo1435
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:38 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
I see some candidates mentioned in this thread.
My 2 cents:
Likely: KE, LY. Top ups: KL, NH, BA.
Maybe: AA, LH, SV, AF, AC.
Not likely: ET, QR, KQ.

Some Chines carriers will also get likely get them. TG is a good candidate too. I still believe the 787-10 is perfect for EI, despite them operating an all-Airbus widebody fleet currently.



Hmm. SV? I’m not too sure!
The open unidentified order for 8 787-10 is the Saudi government for SV.
 
chrisa330
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:44 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
AC let their 787 options expire.

Has China Southern shown any interest?


No they didn’t. They still have the original 13 options and 10 purchase rights available.
 
ist2014
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:03 pm

What about TK
I see some oppurtunity
 
by738
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:05 pm

Would TOM/TUI take a couple?
 
Jetty
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:10 pm

robbo2k wrote:
787-10 optimal to 6000mil (asia routes , TATL US east coast to Europe)

6000 mi is quite a bit further then just US east coast from most of Europe and also covers a large part of Asia.
Image
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:28 pm

The 787-10 would be a great replacement for some of AA's 772's It work great out of ORD and MIA.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:30 pm

ist2014 wrote:
What about TK
I see some oppurtunity


I think it’s settled on the A350-900
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:47 pm

keesje wrote:
The 787-10 has kind of the same "small wing" syndrome as the A321. It wants further, but lacks the wing
with 40t payload, (280 passengers, headwind, reserves and well filled cargo containers); <5000Nm

Image

5000Nm is to / from Asia. Where the growth is.


Why do you think it has the same small wing issue as the A321? The 787 wing is actually quite large. It is only 15% smaller than the 777 yet has a MTOW that is 23% lower. The 787-10 has the same MTOW as the 787-9, and i find it hard to believe that plane is underwinged. The 787-10 maximizes commonality instead of increasing MTOW.

The A321 has a high thrust to weight ratio and unique double slotted flaps to address the small wing. Those compromises result in low cruise altitudes at high weights and are issues that are not faced by the 787-10 which performs just like the 787-9 in the air.
 
global2
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:49 pm

keesje wrote:
Current 787-10 customers:


3 All Nippon Airways

Most are part of bigger 787 orders, so the numbers will likely change over time.


Even if it's part of a larger order, why only 3 for ANA?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:06 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
The 787-10 has kind of the same "small wing" syndrome as the A321. It wants further, but lacks the wing
with 40t payload, (280 passengers, headwind, reserves and well filled cargo containers); <5000Nm

Image

5000Nm is to / from Asia. Where the growth is.


Why do you think it has the same small wing issue as the A321? The 787 wing is actually quite large. It is only 15% smaller than the 777 yet has a MTOW that is 23% lower. The 787-10 has the same MTOW as the 787-9, and i find it hard to believe that plane is underwinged. The 787-10 maximizes commonality instead of increasing MTOW.

The A321 has a high thrust to weight ratio and unique double slotted flaps to address the small wing. Those compromises result in low cruise altitudes at high weights and are issues that are not faced by the 787-10 which performs just like the 787-9 in the air.

What bears repeating:
1. Within the 787-10 range envelope, it will cost less. So it is ideal for airlines with many missions in that range (UA, AA, BA, LH, EK QR, ET, TK, and SQ come to mind).
2. On some routes, freight doesn't pay. So for those routes, add 5 to 7 tons more fuel.

There is no doubt that longer missions are better on the 789, 779, or A359 (demand driven).

I expect the CMC PIP for the GEnX will spike sales just as the two CFM-56 engine PIPs dramatically boosted 739ER sales or the V2500 and Sharklets PIPs the A321.

The best sales years of the 787-10 are a PIP away.

Recall the inlet guide vanes and panels EIS with the 777X. 2nd stage turbine is a 2025 ish PIP and the 1st stage in say 2030. Yes, working in aerospace, one gets used to long timelines...

Lightsaber
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ikolkyo
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
The 787-10 has kind of the same "small wing" syndrome as the A321. It wants further, but lacks the wing
with 40t payload, (280 passengers, headwind, reserves and well filled cargo containers); <5000Nm

Image

5000Nm is to / from Asia. Where the growth is.


Why do you think it has the same small wing issue as the A321? The 787 wing is actually quite large. It is only 15% smaller than the 777 yet has a MTOW that is 23% lower. The 787-10 has the same MTOW as the 787-9, and i find it hard to believe that plane is underwinged. The 787-10 maximizes commonality instead of increasing MTOW.

The A321 has a high thrust to weight ratio and unique double slotted flaps to address the small wing. Those compromises result in low cruise altitudes at high weights and are issues that are not faced by the 787-10 which performs just like the 787-9 in the air.

What bears repeating:
1. Within the 787-10 range envelope, it will cost less. So it is ideal for airlines with many missions in that range (UA, AA, BA, LH, EK QR, ET, TK, and SQ come to mind).
2. On some routes, freight doesn't pay. So for those routes, add 5 to 7 tons more fuel.

There is no doubt that longer missions are better on the 789, 779, or A359 (demand driven).

I expect the CMC PIP for the GEnX will spike sales just as the two CFM-56 engine PIPs dramatically boosted 739ER sales or the V2500 and Sharklets PIPs the A321.

The best sales years of the 787-10 are a PIP away.

Recall the inlet guide vanes and panels EIS with the 777X. 2nd stage turbine is a 2025 ish PIP and the 1st stage in say 2030. Yes, working in aerospace, one gets used to long timelines...

Lightsaber



Any idea when we should expect a GEnX PIP?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:20 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

Why do you think it has the same small wing issue as the A321? The 787 wing is actually quite large. It is only 15% smaller than the 777 yet has a MTOW that is 23% lower. The 787-10 has the same MTOW as the 787-9, and i find it hard to believe that plane is underwinged. The 787-10 maximizes commonality instead of increasing MTOW.

The A321 has a high thrust to weight ratio and unique double slotted flaps to address the small wing. Those compromises result in low cruise altitudes at high weights and are issues that are not faced by the 787-10 which performs just like the 787-9 in the air.

What bears repeating:
1. Within the 787-10 range envelope, it will cost less. So it is ideal for airlines with many missions in that range (UA, AA, BA, LH, EK QR, ET, TK, and SQ come to mind).
2. On some routes, freight doesn't pay. So for those routes, add 5 to 7 tons more fuel.

There is no doubt that longer missions are better on the 789, 779, or A359 (demand driven).

I expect the CMC PIP for the GEnX will spike sales just as the two CFM-56 engine PIPs dramatically boosted 739ER sales or the V2500 and Sharklets PIPs the A321.

The best sales years of the 787-10 are a PIP away.

Recall the inlet guide vanes and panels EIS with the 777X. 2nd stage turbine is a 2025 ish PIP and the 1st stage in say 2030. Yes, working in aerospace, one gets used to long timelines...

Lightsaber



Any idea when we should expect a GEnX PIP?

I would expect EIS late 2021or sometime 2022.
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Momo1435
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Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:36 pm

global2 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Current 787-10 customers:


3 All Nippon Airways

Most are part of bigger 787 orders, so the numbers will likely change over time.


Even if it's part of a larger order, why only 3 for ANA?

The 787-10 will start to replace their domestic 777-300s. As there are only 7 planes to replace it will not grow into a too large of an order, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 5 options they hold will be firmed up pretty soon.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 2580
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:44 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
columba wrote:
I can imagine that Lufthansa will also order some in addition to their A350 fleet.


Hmm any thing that points to this?

I know ANA only has 3 on order, will they order more?

Ethiopian? They seem to be ordering everything on sale that the moment!

Qatar Airways?

Saudia?

Kenya Airways?


I can see ANA doing a top off on the 787-10. That size in higher density intra Japan routes would free up 777's for longer routes and be lighter.
 
parapente
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Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:55 pm

737-10 future prospects.I would say pretty bright given the reasons above ie a PIP in the future.At present it is range constrained in real world scenarios.But perfect if that additional range is not required and there appears to be enough customers in that regard.So it's doing fine for now and should do better in the future.
Initially the 351 would have been a similar plane,in the sense it was to be max (simple) stretched but range compromised.For whatever reason potential buyers wanted/needed the additional range/capabilities so it was heavily modified as a result.Horses for courses.
 
smi0006
Posts: 1915
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm

I could see QF placing orders also, they currently fly their 744 into Asia from SYD/MEL. I could see them using a 787-10 to HKG/SIN/NRT/HND/HNL, maybe peak services to AKL? Their 789 are a very premium heavy config, good for long haul, but I think they may want more lift for Asia.

NZ are also rumour to be considering the model to replace their 772 for Asian and Tasman flying. I’m doubtful of this, as it doesn’t have the range for the US and adding 787-10, and 778/779 seems to be a bit complex?
 
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keesje
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm

No doubt the 787-10 is very efficient and it of course has great 787 commonality. Thing is, the 777-200ER and A359 have the additional network flexibility to fly in/out of Asia too. Little advantage in not having that.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ssreekanth2000
Posts: 18
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:15 pm

keesje wrote:
No doubt the 787-10 is very efficient and it of course has great 787 commonality. Thing is, the 777-200ER and A359 have the additional network flexibility to fly in/out of Asia too. Little advantage in not having that.

Image


Does the 787-9 have greater range than the A350-900?
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4529
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:25 pm

ssreekanth2000 wrote:
keesje wrote:
No doubt the 787-10 is very efficient and it of course has great 787 commonality. Thing is, the 777-200ER and A359 have the additional network flexibility to fly in/out of Asia too. Little advantage in not having that.

Image


Does the 787-9 have greater range than the A350-900?


It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart.
What the...?
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3344
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:01 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
ssreekanth2000 wrote:
keesje wrote:
No doubt the 787-10 is very efficient and it of course has great 787 commonality. Thing is, the 777-200ER and A359 have the additional network flexibility to fly in/out of Asia too. Little advantage in not having that.

Image


Does the 787-9 have greater range than the A350-900?


It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart.


I belive that chart was created by Airbus marketing who was trying to tell United that world demand was perfectly centered on what the A350-900 could do. According to Airbus the 787 just isnt the right size despite having 1300+ orders
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 360
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:15 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
ssreekanth2000 wrote:
keesje wrote:
No doubt the 787-10 is very efficient and it of course has great 787 commonality. Thing is, the 777-200ER and A359 have the additional network flexibility to fly in/out of Asia too. Little advantage in not having that.

Image


Does the 787-9 have greater range than the A350-900?


It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart.


The chart was showing each aircraft's feasibility as a B77E replacement, not just UA's random opinions of these aircraft in isolation.

So to them, the B789 is too small as a B77E replacement (for some routes), and the B787-10 doesn't have the range.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 15675
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Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:21 pm

keesje wrote:
No doubt the 787-10 is very efficient and it of course has great 787 commonality. Thing is, the 777-200ER and A359 have the additional network flexibility to fly in/out of Asia too. Little advantage in not having that.

Image

Little advantage? Then why does SQ among others have both? The costs of subfleet are exaggerated.

And for many routes, the A359 adds to much extra cost over the 789. If that chart was correct, the 787 would have stopped selling. Both will sell. As will the missing 779. ;)

Boeing has finally gotten past their horrible delays. The question is how large a market for the 787-10. I stand by my opinion that the first of three CMC PIPs will help sales.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 360
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:26 pm

To stop this mis-reading of the chart, I thought I would post the source (it may have been used by UA more than once).

This is from their presentation for the JP Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference:

Image

This came after a slide explaining the route the A350 decision has taken leading them to the switch to 45 A359.
 
questions
Posts: 1592
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:30 pm

Are there any open orders for the 788, or is it an irrelevant aircraft now?

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