User avatar
Polot
Posts: 8611
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:41 pm

questions wrote:
Are there any open orders for the 788, or is it an irrelevant aircraft now?

Through September there are 86 788s left to be delivered.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:54 pm

questions wrote:
Are there any open orders for the 788, or is it an irrelevant aircraft now?


Of the 86 788s on order, there are:

18 for Aeroflot (almost certain to be canceled)
10 for Iraq (likely to be canceled)

So that's 58 actually likely to be delivered. 22 are for AA, and the remaining 36 are scattered between a whole bunch of operators but all look reasonably solid. There might be further top-ups from some of the smaller operators who benefit from the -8's lower trip cost.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11820
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:11 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
ssreekanth2000 wrote:

Does the 787-9 have greater range than the A350-900?


It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart.


I belive that chart was created by Airbus marketing who was trying to tell United that world demand was perfectly centered on what the A350-900 could do. According to Airbus the 787 just isnt the right size despite having 1300+ orders


No, it was United, one of the biggest Boeing operators and both 787-10 and A350 customers.

And I think, in the end, Boeing will develop a slightly bigger wing for the 787-10, possibly -11. Unless the heavy weight 777-8 becomes a hit after all.

Just because of what United indicates; 8000NM / 300-350 seats is a kind of centre of the market, a space that Boeing used to dominate with the 777-200ER/300ER.

The A350 basically took over there. (AF, BA, UA, DL, SQ, CX, JAL etc, etc)

Years ago I opened a topic on this topic. Henry Lam made some sketches. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1339277

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:21 am

You'll need a new center wing box, designed to accommodate bigger/heavier gear, to get that done. And once you've made everything heavier, the engines more powerful, and the wings bigger, don't you basically have an A350-900?
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3333
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:28 am

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart.


I belive that chart was created by Airbus marketing who was trying to tell United that world demand was perfectly centered on what the A350-900 could do. According to Airbus the 787 just isnt the right size despite having 1300+ orders


No, it was United, one of the biggest Boeing operators and both 787-10 and A350 customers.

And I think, in the end, Boeing will develop a slightly bigger wing for the 787-10, possibly -11. Unless the heavy weight 777-8 becomes a hit after all.

Just because of what United indicates; 8000NM / 300-350 seats is a kind of centre of the market, a space that Boeing used to dominate with the 777-200ER/300ER.

The A350 basically took over there. (AF, BA, UA, DL, SQ, CX, JAL etc, etc)

Years ago I opened a topic on this topic. Henry Lam made some sketches. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1339277

Image


I was under the impression that Airbus provided that chart to United, but not sure where I heard that. Regardless, the 787 has outsold the A350 for four years in a row, so there certainly is a market for the plane. It looks like the bulk of the market is for airplanes smaller than the 787-10 based on orders. With that said, I fully expect more 787-9, A350-900 and 787-10 orders. They are optimized for different missions.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11820
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:04 am

seabosdca wrote:
You'll need a new center wing box, designed to accommodate bigger/heavier gear, to get that done. And once you've made everything heavier, the engines more powerful, and the wings bigger, don't you basically have an A350-900?


A 787-10ER, a composites 777-200ER, a 777-8 Light, narrow A350.

Observation is that the 777ER / A340 replacement market shows no indication of adoption a 787-10 / 777-8/9 combo as preferred replacement.

That was the case when the topic was posted & it hasn't gone away. E.g. Qantas, Korean, BA need to order soon.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2428
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:59 am

Hey guys,
I agree with smi that Qantas could well order a small subfleet of 6-8 787-10s for Asian and peak transtasman routes. The chances for the -10 would be higher, in my opinion, if Boeing wins Project Sunrise. Adding on the 777-8 and then a possible A350-900 for the gap between the 777-8 and the 787-9 would involve two new jet types at once whereas adding the 787-10 means only one new type. If Airbus wins Project Sunrise, then the reverse could happen to benefit the A350-900 and it would be a real contest to see which OEM would win any possible order for the gap between the 787-9 and the A350-1000.
Of course, Qantas may not order anything to 'fill the gap' and may be perfectly happy with a fleet of narrow bodies, 787-9s, Project Sunrisers and A380s....
Cheers
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
questions
Posts: 1591
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:41 am

seabosdca wrote:
questions wrote:
Are there any open orders for the 788, or is it an irrelevant aircraft now?


Of the 86 788s on order, there are:

18 for Aeroflot (almost certain to be canceled)
10 for Iraq (likely to be canceled)

So that's 58 actually likely to be delivered. 22 are for AA, and the remaining 36 are scattered between a whole bunch of operators but all look reasonably solid. There might be further top-ups from some of the smaller operators who benefit from the -8's lower trip cost.


Thanks.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 11143
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:07 am

Flame away, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see DL order some 789+78X in the future if the price and availability became right.

Replace newer 767s and the 77Es.

Yes I'm well aware they'll have A339 and A359.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:07 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Flame away, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see DL order some 789+78X in the future if the price and availability became right.

Replace newer 767s and the 77Es.

Yes I'm well aware they'll have A339 and A359.


I have my doubts. I see them taking the 797 when that becomes available but not the 787-10
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
LH707330
Posts: 1977
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:27 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:30 am

seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
The 787-10 has kind of the same "small wing" syndrome as the A321. It wants further, but lacks the wing
with 40t payload, (280 passengers, headwind, reserves and well filled cargo containers); <5000Nm

5000Nm is to / from Asia. Where the growth is.


Everything that has come out of Boeing indicates that the limit on the 787-10's MTOW (and that of the 787-9, for that matter) is the landing gear, not the wing. Not disputing that at higher weights the wing might be too small for optimum efficiency at long range, but it's the landing gear that imposes the hard limit.

Yeah, the wing on the 787 is about the same size as the A343, which has an MTOW of 275t. I agree that the small wing hype is overblown....
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 501
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:42 am

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart.


I belive that chart was created by Airbus marketing who was trying to tell United that world demand was perfectly centered on what the A350-900 could do. According to Airbus the 787 just isnt the right size despite having 1300+ orders


No, it was United, one of the biggest Boeing operators and both 787-10 and A350 customers.

And I think, in the end, Boeing will develop a slightly bigger wing for the 787-10, possibly -11. Unless the heavy weight 777-8 becomes a hit after all.

Just because of what United indicates; 8000NM / 300-350 seats is a kind of centre of the market, a space that Boeing used to dominate with the 777-200ER/300ER.

The A350 basically took over there. (AF, BA, UA, DL, SQ, CX, JAL etc, etc)

Years ago I opened a topic on this topic. Henry Lam made some sketches. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1339277

Image




The 787-10 is a 6000 nm plane with full pax and bags. That is plenty enough range for 95% of the long haul flights out there. Now if you need to fly an additional 1000 nm sure use a bigger, heavier, and less fuel efficient plane.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:55 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Flame away, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see DL order some 789+78X in the future if the price and availability became right.


I agree with you. They need a further 20-25 aircraft in that general size range for replacement. But not immediately. I think there will be another contest between 787 and A350 in the early 2020s.

The result may be partly dependent on what sort of capability the later A350s in the original order end up bringing to the table. If they are full-boat 280 t birds (unlike any of the first batch) then they can do things like replace the 77L on ATL-JNB. If the later A350 deliveries are gimped like the first batch, that may give the A350 an advantage for future orders; the 789 is smaller and the 78J obviously doesn't have the payload range for 77L missions.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:44 am

Are there any airlines with sizable older A330-300 and B777-200ERS apart from BA and AA that haven’t ordered replacements yet ?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
User avatar
Momo1435
Posts: 703
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:58 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
Are there any airlines with sizable older A330-300 and B777-200ERS apart from BA and AA that haven’t ordered replacements yet ?

Korean Air
Thai Airways
Swiss
Alitalia
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:01 am

Momo1435 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Are there any airlines with sizable older A330-300 and B777-200ERS apart from BA and AA that haven’t ordered replacements yet ?

Korean Air
Thai Airways
Swiss
Alitalia


I think we can forget about Alitalia!
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2279
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:21 am

ElroyJetson wrote:

The 787-10 is a 6000 nm plane with full pax and bags. That is plenty enough range for 95% of the long haul flights out there. Now if you need to fly an additional 1000 nm sure use a bigger, heavier, and less fuel efficient plane.


6000nm is a bit of an exaggeration when you factor in real world considerations, the A330 for example has a very similar range its longest route at present is just under 5200nm (SZX-LHR). Add cargo and that number drops, and realistically most airlines flying that far will fly cargo. More to the point though is that while it may be possible to fly the 78X on a route, that doesn't mean it is the most economic choice for the route. The A359 and 789 offer more flexibility and capability while still being good on the shorter routes, and additionally the 78X doesn't seem to have the much-reduced cost to manufacture.

95% of long haul flying is too optimistic a figure IMO.
 
pabloeing
Posts: 449
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:00 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:16 am

A "real" range for the B78X is 5000nm.....fantastic plane for Europe to west and east america routes like FRA-LAX or LHR-JFK
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:37 am

Most airlines don’t even utilize max range of most of the aircraft that they order so why is the -10’s lack of range an issue all of a sudden?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11820
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:13 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:

The 787-10 is a 6000 nm plane with full pax and bags. That is plenty enough range for 95% of the long haul flights out there. Now if you need to fly an additional 1000 nm sure use a bigger, heavier, and less fuel efficient plane.


:arrow: 95% of the long haul flights out there is not full pax & bags only.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
parapente
Posts: 2788
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:31 pm

This chart is fine as long as the sweet range spot is correct for your airline.Clearly it is for UA.But equally this was not the case for BA (at least at present).They have plumped for the dash 10 so one must assume they did not need the additional range (read weight/drag/coo/Sfc) that the 359 offered. Their 7810 order surprised me at the time,but perhaps it just shows how $$ sensitive modern aircaft operations are to range.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11820
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:59 pm

pabloeing wrote:
A "real" range for the B78X is 5000nm.....fantastic plane for Europe to west and east america routes like FRA-LAX or LHR-JFK


FRA-LAX doesn't seem like a good idea, specailly east bound.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FRA-LAX&MS=wls&DU=nm

And cargo FRA-LAX is really significant apparently, looking at the frequencies cargo options e.g Lufthansa offers. (From MUC also). But FRA - US East coast should be fine.

Image

A 4 hauler like the A340-600 might be more usefull FRA-LAX, lifting up to 15t more revenue cargo payload, with the same passenger payload. (With less, wider middle seats, a quiet cabin and no ETOPS restrictions :wink2: ).

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 501
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:18 pm

keesje wrote:
pabloeing wrote:
A "real" range for the B78X is 5000nm.....fantastic plane for Europe to west and east america routes like FRA-LAX or LHR-JFK


FRA-LAX doesn't seem like a good idea, specailly east bound.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FRA-LAX&MS=wls&DU=nm

And cargo FRA-LAX is really significant apparently, looking at the frequencies cargo options e.g Lufthansa offers. (From MUC also). But FRA - US East coast should be fine.

Image

A 4 hauler like the A340-600 might be more usefull FRA-LAX, lifting up to 15t more revenue cargo payload, with the same passenger payload. (With less, wider middle seats, a quiet cabin and no ETOPS restrictions :wink2: ).

Image[/quote

And also about 30% more costly to operate.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3333
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:22 pm

Any route we see a 242t A330-300 or 233t A330-200 operating should be viable for the 787-10.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 4165
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:59 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Most airlines don’t even utilize max range of most of the aircraft that they order so why is the -10’s lack of range an issue all of a sudden?


Because it's a.net, and some people just have a need to be that way.

Look at the routes flown by the carriers you consider prospects for 787-10s. Delta, for example, has 21 764 from 2000-2002, and 11 332s from 2004-2006. Every route flown by those aircraft can be flown by a 787-10. Carrier routes maps and planespotters.net's aircraft databases are your friends.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 322
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:06 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Flame away, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see DL order some 789+78X in the future if the price and availability became right.

Replace newer 767s and the 77Es.

Yes I'm well aware they'll have A339 and A359.


I agree with you. I would t be surprised to see DL eventually order some 78Js
 
FatCat
Posts: 580
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:02 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:08 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Are there any airlines with sizable older A330-300 and B777-200ERS apart from BA and AA that haven’t ordered replacements yet ?

Korean Air
Thai Airways
Swiss
Alitalia


I think we can forget about Alitalia!

I think we can, too, but a 787 will look magnificent in AZ new livery.
May my post not hurt your feelings
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11820
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:10 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Most airlines don’t even utilize max range of most of the aircraft that they order so why is the -10’s lack of range an issue all of a sudden?


Because it's a.net, and some people just have a need to be that way.

Look at the routes flown by the carriers you consider prospects for 787-10s. Delta, for example, has 21 764 from 2000-2002, and 11 332s from 2004-2006. Every route flown by those aircraft can be flown by a 787-10. Carrier routes maps and planespotters.net's aircraft databases are your friends.


Image

The carrier decided not to order the 787 for a variety of reasons. “The 787-9 is too small for our requirements and the 787-10 does not have the necessary range for around 40% of the destinations,” says Carsten Spohr, CEO of the passenger airline division.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/lufthansa-commits-777-9x-and-a350-900
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 11143
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:39 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
I agree with you. I would t be surprised to see DL eventually order some 78Js

I'm thinking that if they get 78X, they may as well get 789 to go with it... there's definitely a niche it can fill that the A339s couldn't; and DL historically isn't afraid to op a similar-capacity-different-capability fleet by any means.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 8611
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:46 pm

keesje wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Most airlines don’t even utilize max range of most of the aircraft that they order so why is the -10’s lack of range an issue all of a sudden?


Because it's a.net, and some people just have a need to be that way.

Look at the routes flown by the carriers you consider prospects for 787-10s. Delta, for example, has 21 764 from 2000-2002, and 11 332s from 2004-2006. Every route flown by those aircraft can be flown by a 787-10. Carrier routes maps and planespotters.net's aircraft databases are your friends.


Image

The carrier decided not to order the 787 for a variety of reasons. “The 787-9 is too small for our requirements and the 787-10 does not have the necessary range for around 40% of the destinations,” says Carsten Spohr, CEO of the passenger airline division.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/lufthansa-commits-777-9x-and-a350-900

That was specifically in regards to 744/A343 replacement. That doesn’t mean LH would never be interested in a 787-10 or any other plane with similar range (after all, they have no issues flying 18 A333s).
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 8647
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:49 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Hey all.

With Etihad and United having both received their 1st B787-10 I wanted to re-examine future sales?

1. What’s the hold up on Emirates firming their order for 40?

2. Have the leasing companies managed to place more apart from with KLM and EVA?

3. American Airlines replacing 777-200’s?


So UA - which has them on order - doesn’t seem them as an ideal 77E replacement, and LH has said that they aren’t the best fit for them.

Any thoughts on the OP queries?
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
parapente
Posts: 2788
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:01 pm

From where Emirates sits geographically I can see how the 787X could be very useful/economical particularly to secondary cities in Europe (they already do all the primary cities).Would also work well into parts of Africa-And Asia.
With BA (don't think they have announced anything) one assumes it's for London to East cost N America destinations -only? Would be highly economical on such flights.The distances are short enough (just) to carry a full load of cargo too.There may be others such as Moscow?
 
User avatar
ikolkyo
Posts: 2272
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:02 pm

keesje wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Most airlines don’t even utilize max range of most of the aircraft that they order so why is the -10’s lack of range an issue all of a sudden?


Because it's a.net, and some people just have a need to be that way.

Look at the routes flown by the carriers you consider prospects for 787-10s. Delta, for example, has 21 764 from 2000-2002, and 11 332s from 2004-2006. Every route flown by those aircraft can be flown by a 787-10. Carrier routes maps and planespotters.net's aircraft databases are your friends.


Image

The carrier decided not to order the 787 for a variety of reasons. “The 787-9 is too small for our requirements and the 787-10 does not have the necessary range for around 40% of the destinations,” says Carsten Spohr, CEO of the passenger airline division.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/lufthansa-commits-777-9x-and-a350-900


Thing can always change, 787-10 at LH as a A330/A340 replacement is not out of the question. I believe they are having talks about that as we speak with recent news.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3399321-b ... body-order
 
jagraham
Posts: 558
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:03 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

The 787-10 is a 6000 nm plane with full pax and bags. That is plenty enough range for 95% of the long haul flights out there. Now if you need to fly an additional 1000 nm sure use a bigger, heavier, and less fuel efficient plane.


6000nm is a bit of an exaggeration when you factor in real world considerations, the A330 for example has a very similar range its longest route at present is just under 5200nm (SZX-LHR). Add cargo and that number drops, and realistically most airlines flying that far will fly cargo. More to the point though is that while it may be possible to fly the 78X on a route, that doesn't mean it is the most economic choice for the route. The A359 and 789 offer more flexibility and capability while still being good on the shorter routes, and additionally the 78X doesn't seem to have the much-reduced cost to manufacture.

95% of long haul flying is too optimistic a figure IMO.



When looking at what the 789 is doing, 6000 nm is a conservative figure. In fact, Boeing first listed the 787-10 at 7000 nm, so 6430 nm is in fact conservative.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm

parapente wrote:
From where Emirates sits geographically I can see how the 787X could be very useful/economical particularly to secondary cities in Europe (they already do all the primary cities).Would also work well into parts of Africa-And Asia.
With BA (don't think they have announced anything) one assumes it's for London to East cost N America destinations -only? Would be highly economical on such flights.The distances are short enough (just) to carry a full load of cargo too.There may be others such as Moscow?


Loads.
JFK
Nairobi
Dubai
Mumbai
Toronto
Boston
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
ewt340
Posts: 260
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:19 pm

Seems like currently the sweet spots are:

A330-300 and their 6300nm range
B787-9 and their 7600nm range
*Both have extremely similar capacity, just different range and availability.

And the other sweet spots are:
A350-900 and their 8000nm range
10-abreast B777-300ER and their 7400nm range.

A330-300 and B777-300ER sales are slowing down fast, while A350-900 and B787-9 are selling like hot cakes.

So B787-10 comes to play in between this market. While it have the nice capacity of A350-900 which airlines love, and the commonality with B787-9, the lack of range makes it less flexible.
While the fuel efficiency is amazing, it still can't do heavy duty routes like A350-900 did.
And while the 6400 nm range is nice like A330-300, the large capacity of B787-10 is too much on some routes, after all Frequency does matter to Premium Passengers.

So lack of flexibility in range and capacity is the main problems for B787-10. I don't see this plane going further than B787-8.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 15668
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:29 pm

keesje wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Most airlines don’t even utilize max range of most of the aircraft that they order so why is the -10’s lack of range an issue all of a sudden?


Because it's a.net, and some people just have a need to be that way.

Look at the routes flown by the carriers you consider prospects for 787-10s. Delta, for example, has 21 764 from 2000-2002, and 11 332s from 2004-2006. Every route flown by those aircraft can be flown by a 787-10. Carrier routes maps and planespotters.net's aircraft databases are your friends.


Image

The carrier decided not to order the 787 for a variety of reasons. “The 787-9 is too small for our requirements and the 787-10 does not have the necessary range for around 40% of the destinations,” says Carsten Spohr, CEO of the passenger airline division.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/lufthansa-commits-777-9x-and-a350-900

Of course the A359 will be better for some airlines. As I stated before, the 787-10 needs a CMC engine PIP to have the range to compete.

While not winning LH is a big deal, something would be wrong if the A359 wasn't optimal for some airlines.

The issue with the A359 is a lack of 2019 to 2022 production slots to win new orders. That is not an issue with the 787-10 thanks to the production ramp. If airlines wait for perfection, another airline will beat them to the market. I wouldn't want to compete an A340 vs. a PIP'd 787-10 in say 2024.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:39 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Seems like currently the sweet spots are:

A330-300 and their 6300nm range
B787-9 and their 7600nm range
*Both have extremely similar capacity, just different range and availability.

And the other sweet spots are:
A350-900 and their 8000nm range
10-abreast B777-300ER and their 7400nm range.

A330-300 and B777-300ER sales are slowing down fast, while A350-900 and B787-9 are selling like hot cakes.

So B787-10 comes to play in between this market. While it have the nice capacity of A350-900 which airlines love, and the commonality with B787-9, the lack of range makes it less flexible.
While the fuel efficiency is amazing, it still can't do heavy duty routes like A350-900 did.
And while the 6400 nm range is nice like A330-300, the large capacity of B787-10 is too much on some routes, after all Frequency does matter to Premium Passengers.

So lack of flexibility in range and capacity is the main problems for B787-10. I don't see this plane going further than B787-8.


Another 200 units in the next 4 years wouldnt be a bad result?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 358
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:44 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Hey all.

With Etihad and United having both received their 1st B787-10 I wanted to re-examine future sales?

1. What’s the hold up on Emirates firming their order for 40?

2. Have the leasing companies managed to place more apart from with KLM and EVA?

3. American Airlines replacing 777-200’s?


So UA - which has them on order - doesn’t seem them as an ideal 77E replacement, and LH has said that they aren’t the best fit for them.

Any thoughts on the OP queries?


UA sees them as a partial B77E replacement, for the LATAM and TATL routes that are currently 77E operated. The plan is to replace the 77E with a combination of B787-10 and A359.
 
WIederling
Posts: 6902
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:54 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
And also about 30% more costly to operate.


Only if you can work it without payload reduction.

When you have reduced payload on the 7810 by 30% but are still at full payload for the A340NG
that advantage has vanished. Think about why LH is profitable with their alleged fuel guzzlers.
Murphy is an optimist
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:57 pm

WIederling wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
And also about 30% more costly to operate.


Only if you can work it without payload reduction.

When you have reduced payload on the 7810 by 30% but are still at full payload for the A340NG
that advantage has vanished. Think about why LH is profitable with their alleged fuel guzzlers.


Partly because all their aged A340's are fully paid for assets now that cannot depreciate further.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Eyad89
Posts: 430
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:

The issue with the A359 is a lack of 2019 to 2022 production slots to win new orders.

Lightsaber


Even after AA cancelling its A350 order and the upcoming EY cancellation? I guess that would open up a few slots in that period.
 
gabep
Posts: 70
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 6:07 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:10 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
I could see AC ordering them for high volume TATL routes, but that will have to come once they feel comfortable with another period of significant growty, seeing as they have basicially just completed their widebody renewal project. The A333s have another decade left, and that fleet will likely continue to grow gradually short term.


AC let their 787 options expire.

Has China Southern shown any interest?


They have not expired. AC opted not to exercise them—for now.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:22 pm

WIederling wrote:
When you have reduced payload on the 7810 by 30% but are still at full payload for the A340NG
that advantage has vanished. Think about why LH is profitable with their alleged fuel guzzlers.


You would only take that sort of payload reduction on certain LH routes, and that's why LH has A350s. From Germany, the 787-10 could carry MZFW to all of the US, the Middle East, and any place they are likely to fly in Africa. They could carry full passenger payload plus some cargo to India and most of Centrral/South America. The only places where range is really a problem are East/Southeast Asia, South Africa, and deep South America.

LH just told us that they want to speed up A340 replacement, and are evaluating both the A350 and 787 to do so. The results will tell us something about whether flexibility or the lowest possible CASM brings more financial benefit (although they will also tell us something about current pricing by the two OEMs).
 
Flighty
Posts: 9726
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:33 pm

seabosdca wrote:
WIederling wrote:
When you have reduced payload on the 7810 by 30% but are still at full payload for the A340NG
that advantage has vanished. Think about why LH is profitable with their alleged fuel guzzlers.


You would only take that sort of payload reduction on certain LH routes, and that's why LH has A350s. From Germany, the 787-10 could carry MZFW to all of the US, the Middle East, and any place they are likely to fly in Africa. They could carry full passenger payload plus some cargo to India and most of Centrral/South America. The only places where range is really a problem are East/Southeast Asia, South Africa, and deep South America.

LH just told us that they want to speed up A340 replacement, and are evaluating both the A350 and 787 to do so. The results will tell us something about whether flexibility or the lowest possible CASM brings more financial benefit (although they will also tell us something about current pricing by the two OEMs).


The more we look at the 787-10, the less it looks like an "A333" as we historically see that, a ten hour jet. And the more it looks like a surgical twelve hour jet that can do certain jobs (like Germany-LAX and SFO?) at unbeatable unit cost.

The synergy with 789 means the 787-10 could become the backbone of more fleets than we realize, and use the 789 as an accessory where performance or weaker traffic demand.
 
nikeherc
Posts: 574
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2012 8:40 pm

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:52 pm

On the question of 787-10 range: Is it 5000 or 6000 miles? Didn't Boeing change the way that they determine range to make it more realistic than it was in the past? If so, is 6000 miles that unrealistic?
DC6 to 777 and most things in between
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:53 pm

Flighty wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
WIederling wrote:
When you have reduced payload on the 7810 by 30% but are still at full payload for the A340NG
that advantage has vanished. Think about why LH is profitable with their alleged fuel guzzlers.


You would only take that sort of payload reduction on certain LH routes, and that's why LH has A350s. From Germany, the 787-10 could carry MZFW to all of the US, the Middle East, and any place they are likely to fly in Africa. They could carry full passenger payload plus some cargo to India and most of Centrral/South America. The only places where range is really a problem are East/Southeast Asia, South Africa, and deep South America.

LH just told us that they want to speed up A340 replacement, and are evaluating both the A350 and 787 to do so. The results will tell us something about whether flexibility or the lowest possible CASM brings more financial benefit (although they will also tell us something about current pricing by the two OEMs).


The more we look at the 787-10, the less it looks like an "A333" as we historically see that, a ten hour jet. And the more it looks like a surgical twelve hour jet that can do certain jobs (like Germany-LAX and SFO?) at unbeatable unit cost.

The synergy with 789 means the 787-10 could become the backbone of more fleets than we realize, and use the 789 as an accessory where performance or weaker traffic demand.


I really do not understand people claiming its a 10 hour jet from sea level. From Nairobi or Jobergs altitude, maybe.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Flighty
Posts: 9726
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:26 pm

nikeherc wrote:
On the question of 787-10 range: Is it 5000 or 6000 miles? Didn't Boeing change the way that they determine range to make it more realistic than it was in the past? If so, is 6000 miles that unrealistic?



Here is what we know, 789 is officially 7,635nm, but seems to be able to do 7,600 statute miles strongly. It is deployed in scheduled service out to 9,000 statute miles on PER-LHR.

The 787-10 is officially 6,430nm. So my low quality estimate is 6,500 statute will be no problem for the 787-10 to do scheduled services. This opens up all of Lower48-Europe, and some West Coast to Asia. I think it might do SEA-HKG but probably not LAX-HKG. LAX-NE Asia appears to be in range. Those are big markets.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:44 pm

nikeherc wrote:
On the question of 787-10 range: Is it 5000 or 6000 miles? Didn't Boeing change the way that they determine range to make it more realistic than it was in the past? If so, is 6000 miles that unrealistic?


Depends on what you want it to do.

The latest payload-range chart shows that you can carry maximum payload almost exactly 4000 nm (4600 statute miles). But not many airlines will be carrying that payload. It would require the enormous hold to be totally full of pretty dense cargo. At more realistic passenger and cargo loads, you can expect to fly around 5800 to 6000 statute miles. If you don't want to carry any cargo, Boeing's specified range for pax and bags in a typical configuration is 6430 nm (7400 statute miles). The latter number is calculated using Boeing's new methodology, which assumes 9-abreast economy and somewhat heavier cabin furnishings than the previous methodology. Of course these are all still air ranges and you have to take real-world flight paths and winds into account.

What this means in the real world is that the 787-10 will do fine for most airlines on missions up to around 12 hours, unless the route is one where the hold is full of fruit or live lobster or something else extremely heavy.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11820
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm

Flighty wrote:

The 787-10 is officially 6,430nm. So my low quality estimate is 6,500 statute will be no problem for the 787-10 to do scheduled services. This opens up all of Lower48-Europe, and some West Coast to Asia. I think it might do SEA-HKG but probably not LAX-HKG. LAX-NE Asia appears to be in range. Those are big markets.


I rest my case..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos