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atcsundevil
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DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:19 am

Please continue from the previous discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382399

Happy New Year to everyone in the DMV!
 
N292UX
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:35 am

2019 Predictions (IAD):
-UA has a field day in 2019. MSN, MKE, SBN, MEM, BHM, MYR, SRQ, LIT all seem like possible/likely launches on the regional side (some of those may be shifted from EWR). As for mainline, I can see MSP, MCI, and CMH getting some mainline action, possibly seasonal, while PBI, and RSW, could see some seasonal service too. I expect the international side to be a little quieter. Maybe an new seasonal route to somewhere like PVR, LIR, or CZM, but that may be all at least for 2019.
-WN shrinks IAD a little more. I think IAD-ATL gets canned this year. There's a slim chance that they add either PHX or LAS but I highly doubt it. I expect them to cut routes rather than add
-DL grows a little more at IAD with a little more mainline service to MSP
-I honestly have no idea about F9. They could go either cut a few routes or add a few routes like SAN, PHX, and TPA. We'll see
-AA does nothing. If anything, they may shrink a little and drop IAD-LAX
-Another Star Alliance carrier announced IAD. My bet is LO to WAW starting in 2020.

BWI:
-WN announces a few new routes, possibly a few international ones. I would say OMA seems like a possibility for WN
-NK launches a new route, but not sure where to

DCA:
-Due to slot restrictions, there probably won't be many chances. AA could start seasonal service to somewhere like DAB with CRJ-700/900 or E175s

RIC:
-NK continues to perform well, and I can see them launching TPA in 2019.
-WN does absolutely nothing. ATL will remain their sole year-round route out of RIC
-DL adds some mainline metal on RIC-DTW. May not be year-round, but it's something. A dark horse prediction is that they announce RIC-SLC starting in 2020 on either a A220 or A319. That seems like a route that could definitely work with an A220
-B6 MAY announce JFK in 2019, but I doubt it. They'd probably need another slot at JFK to have any chance
-RIC could see a 2-3x weekly service to LAS on G4 starting sometime in 2019. There are definitely some smaller markets than RIC which have nonstop flights to LAS.
 
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fraspotter
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:03 am

N292UX wrote:
-WN does absolutely nothing. ATL will remain their sole year-round route out of RIC


Doesn't surprise me one bit. The amount of neglect that WN shows their former Air Tran destinations is appalling. RIC could easily make a MDW, STL or even a DEN route work if WN would only give them a chance. RIC is seeing incredible passenger growth. Every month this past year (going even further back into 2017) has seen record passenger numbers. Hopefully when the A concourse extension (whenever it finally starts construction) is completed we'll see some new carriers (F9 anyone?) come on in and see others ramp up frequencies and/or start new routes.
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vatveng
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:29 am

2019 predictions: ORF

Government shutdown causes local non-military federal workers (of which there are a lot) to reconsider travel plans. It won't be as bad as sequestration was, which affected the military, but it'll be enough to make F9 and G4 jittery. They won't make any changes directly because of the shutdown unless it drags on for too long. But paired with another event - ANY other event (weather or economy) - and one or both of them will bolt again.

B6 still wants nothing to do with us.

WN joins F9 and G4 in the seasonal once-or-twice a week game. They're doing BNA and SAN on weekends next summer, and added seasonal DEN to sort-of compete with UA's daily year-round DEN flight.

DL watches UA, F9 and WN at DEN closely but decides to continue to funnel transcon connections through ATL instead of adding SLC.
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:39 am

N292UX wrote:
2019 Predictions (IAD):
-WN shrinks IAD a little more. I think IAD-ATL gets canned this year. There's a slim chance that they add either PHX or LAS but I highly doubt it. I expect them to cut routes rather than add


I agree that WN might drop IAD-ATL nonstop service, but there are other nonstop routes such as IAD-LAX, IAD-PHX, IAD-OAK, IAD-SMF, and IAD-SJC that could be added by WN at IAD. I agree that WN could bring back IAD-LAS nonstop service, and WN could also bring back IAD-SAN nonstop service. WN has also been recently expanding in California to better compete against AS, and WN adding IAD-LAX, IAD-OAK, and IAD-SJC nonstop service would allow WN to better compete against AS on California to DC nonstop service.

While there are currently very few passengers connecting to DAL from IAD, there might be enough demand for WN to possibly add IAD-DAL nonstop service since (a) DFW is one of the top domestic destinations traveled to from IAD, (b) AA has significant market share on the IAD-DFW nonstop route, and (c) WN has a significant FF base on both the DAL and DC ends of the route to support IAD-DAL nonstop service.

WN adding IAD-BNA nonstop service is another possibility since WN is still expanding at BNA and since WN has recently announced plans to move some service over to BNA from ATL.

There was a post by somebody else on the Airliners.net forums that said "Rumor has it, MDW-DSM and MDW-IAD to be resumed" (which can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1397165&p=20509079#p20507803), and I agree that WN could bring back MDW-IAD nonstop service.

N292UX wrote:
BWI:
-WN announces a few new routes, possibly a few international ones. I would say OMA seems like a possibility for WN


I agree that the lack of BWI-OMA nonstop service is one of the biggest holes for WN. There are also a few other nonstop routes such as BWI-BUR, BWI-ONT, BWI-RNO, and BWI-SFO that could be added by WN at BWI.

N292UX wrote:
DCA:
-Due to slot restrictions, there probably won't be many chances. AA could start seasonal service to somewhere like DAB with CRJ-700/900 or E175s


WN might be able to pick up one of the DEN-DCA beyond-perimeter slot exemptions that is currently held by F9 if F9 cuts back on DCA-DEN nonstop service. There is enough demand for WN to add DEN-DCA nonstop service if WN can pick up an extra beyond-perimeter slot exemption since DEN is one of the largest WN focus cities, since there is a significant amount of passengers connecting to beyond-perimeter destinations in the Western U.S. from DCA on WN, and since WN has a significant customer base in both DC and the Western U.S. to support DEN-DCA nonstop service.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:44 am

N292UX wrote:
2019 Predictions (IAD):
-UA has a field day in 2019. MSN, MKE, SBN, MEM, BHM, MYR, SRQ, LIT all seem like possible/likely launches on the regional side (some of those may be shifted from EWR). As for mainline, I can see MSP, MCI, and CMH getting some mainline action, possibly seasonal, while PBI, and RSW, could see some seasonal service too. I expect the international side to be a little quieter. Maybe an new seasonal route to somewhere like PVR, LIR, or CZM, but that may be all at least for 2019.

I think it all depends on the health of the economy and the aviation market. The markets ended on a very bumpy note this year, and it's looking like 2019 may continue to slide. We can all hope that it doesn't resemble a decade ago, but it could result in capacity cuts and more conservative route growth. I hope not, because it feels like UA is finally realizing the potential of IAD, and it would be a shame if that slowed.

N292UX wrote:
-WN shrinks IAD a little more. I think IAD-ATL gets canned this year. There's a slim chance that they add either PHX or LAS but I highly doubt it. I expect them to cut routes rather than add

I'm not even sure why they still bother with IAD-ATL. Or even RIC-ATL for that matter. They're effectively irrelevant outside of BWI, DCA, and ORF. I don't forsee any adds.

N292UX wrote:
-DL grows a little more at IAD with a little more mainline service to MSP

I hope so. There's room for them to expand to their hubs from IAD.

N292UX wrote:
-I honestly have no idea about F9. They could go either cut a few routes or add a few routes like SAN, PHX, and TPA. We'll see

You know that octopus that predicts the outcome of soccer games? I'm convinced F9 has their own octopus working in route planning. Everything F9 does is a crapshoot, and there is literally no predicting what they'll do. I do like their little portfolio of routes from IAD, but like most of what they do, I'm not confident in how sustainable they are.

N292UX wrote:
-AA does nothing. If anything, they may shrink a little and drop IAD-LAX

Agreed. Like WN, they're irrelevant at IAD.

N292UX wrote:
-Another Star Alliance carrier announced IAD. My bet is LO to WAW starting in 2020.

That would be a very strong add. I'm still hoping for Swiss to return one of these days. It would be nice to see them fly from IAD on their own metal again. I'm also hoping for EVA someday, but I think that might only happen if/when the HKG route proves itself. Obviously not Star, but I'm thinking Air Italy may end up here, especially the way they're growing.

N292UX wrote:
DCA:
-Due to slot restrictions, there probably won't be many chances. AA could start seasonal service to somewhere like DAB with CRJ-700/900 or E175s

DCA generally stays status quo unless Congress in their infinite wisdom decides to interfere.

N292UX wrote:
RIC:
-NK continues to perform well, and I can see them launching TPA in 2019.

I'd love to see them try something out west, but RIC to Florida is such a safe, proven market that I'd expect to see more of the same. There's a big demand for LCC/ULCC in RIC, so I think they're almost guaranteed to thrive.

N292UX wrote:
-WN does absolutely nothing. ATL will remain their sole year-round route out of RIC

Truth.

N292UX wrote:
-DL adds some mainline metal on RIC-DTW. May not be year-round, but it's something. A dark horse prediction is that they announce RIC-SLC starting in 2020 on either a A220 or A319. That seems like a route that could definitely work with an A220

SLC or SEA would be a very nice addition. With UA's success to DEN, I think another west coast route has to be on the table at some point.

N292UX wrote:
-B6 MAY announce JFK in 2019, but I doubt it. They'd probably need another slot at JFK to have any chance

That would be great to see them return on this route, but I'm not sure if they'd be willing to sacrifice the slot space.

N292UX wrote:
-RIC could see a 2-3x weekly service to LAS on G4 starting sometime in 2019. There are definitely some smaller markets than RIC which have nonstop flights to LAS.

RIC-LAS would go over well, in my opinion. Vegas as a destination isn't difficult to make work, especially for a ULCC, and it along with LAX and PHX are two big gaps on RIC's route map.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:06 pm

On the airport front, the Dulles Metro Line should be finishing up most of the heavy construction, though won’t likely enter service in 2019. WMATA will still need some training and ramp up time before starting operations, not to mention their potential concession for Silver Line operations.

At DCA, the construction on the terminal expansion will really get into full swing, with lots of more visible construction for the new concourse, expanded security checkpoints, and the securing of National Hall.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:31 pm

I'll be curious to see how the whole WOW/Frontier/Indigo relationships evolve at BWI
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:06 pm

We should see construction begin in 2019 on the new Polaris lounge at IAD's Concourse C, with completion in early 2020. I think UA holds off on any major expansion efforts until then.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:24 pm

I agree with most of the comments. IAD definitely adds another Star Alliance member. IAD-WAW sounds like a good bet.

RIC-DTW with mainline 717 or A319 would work. NW flew 4 DC-9's a day for years on the route.

Spirit and Allegiant continue to expand RIC with several western destinations. Allegiant already started RIC-BNA.

WN adds a few Caribbean destinations from BWI.
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:33 pm

At RIC we will see the construction of the additional six gates taking place with completion in March 2020 bringing the total to 28 gates.

I agree with above RIC needs to see LAX/LAS or maybe SLC service start. I am hoping Spirit will add flights to west they upgaged the FLL and MCO flights to A320s in 2019.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:33 pm

N292UX wrote:
-WN shrinks IAD a little more. I think IAD-ATL gets canned this year. There's a slim chance that they add either PHX or LAS but I highly doubt it. I expect them to cut routes rather than add

I really hope not. As frequently as I go see my family in northwest Virginia, Southwest is almost always the most affordable option. DCA and BWI are too impractical. I know it doesn't mean much, but every time I've flown between ATL and IAD on Southwest (which has been quite a few times) the flights have been completely full, even on 737-800s.
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:44 pm

LoudounHound wrote:
We should see construction begin in 2019 on the new Polaris lounge at IAD's Concourse C, with completion in early 2020. I think UA holds off on any major expansion efforts until then.

I don't think the presence or lack of a Polaris Lounge will impact their route planning decisions. Most of the potential expansion UA could do is domestic anyway, of which the vast majority of passengers wouldn't be eligible to use the Polaris Lounge. I think it will be a major upgrade for premium int'l passengers, but the company wouldn't be making its planning decision based on that fact alone.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:56 pm

fraspotter wrote:
N292UX wrote:
-WN does absolutely nothing. ATL will remain their sole year-round route out of RIC


Doesn't surprise me one bit. The amount of neglect that WN shows their former Air Tran destinations is appalling. RIC could easily make a MDW, STL or even a DEN route work if WN would only give them a chance. RIC is seeing incredible passenger growth. Every month this past year (going even further back into 2017) has seen record passenger numbers.


atcsundevil wrote:
N292UX wrote:
-WN shrinks IAD a little more. I think IAD-ATL gets canned this year. There's a slim chance that they add either PHX or LAS but I highly doubt it. I expect them to cut routes rather than add

I'm not even sure why they still bother with IAD-ATL. Or even RIC-ATL for that matter. They're effectively irrelevant outside of BWI, DCA, and ORF. I don't forsee any adds.


If WN dropped RIC-ATL nonstop service, WN could add nonstop service to MDW, BNA, and TPA out of RIC instead of pulling out of RIC.

I am surprised that WN has kept RIC-ATL nonstop service when WN has dropped other FL nonstop routes out of ATL such as ATL-BUF, ATL-CLT, ATL-DAY, ATL-FNT, ATL-MEM, ATL-PWM, ATL-ROC, and ATL-SEA. WN is also going to be dropping ATL-DTW and ATL-MSP nonstop service in Summer 2019, and WN has also reduced frequencies on ATL-BOS, ATL-MKE, and ATL-PHL nonstop service.

RIC can likely support nonstop service to MDW on WN since WN already serves MDW nonstop from some markets that are smaller than RIC such as ALB, ABQ, BHM, BUF, GRR, BDL, and TUS. RIC is also far enough from DCA and ORF to support additional WN service. WN would also be able to offer connections to additional destinations from RIC if it added RIC-MDW nonstop service.

It is also unusual for WN to not have added any new nonstop routes out of RIC since almost every other WN station in the U.S. has seen at least one new nonstop route added by WN.

I also do not expect WN to add any nonstop service to any additional destinations in the Southern U.S. out of RIC while WN still serves ATL nonstop from RIC.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:01 pm

I think IAD will gain another international carrier that would start service in the 2nd half of 2019 or summer 2020. My best guess for which airline would be Swiss, Lot, Iberia, or Norwegian. Also, UA will start service to a new international destination.

Domestically for IAD, F9 will add another destination or two and SY will start MSP flights. Based of United’s domestic growth, they will add another domestic destination that will start in the fall or winter.

Lastly for IAD, we will hear the conclusion on if UA is going to add two more banks to make a total of six. Personally, I think they won’t choose the six bank option but maybe shoot for 5 banks or another creative way to grow at IAD.

As for DCA, the only change I see happening is AA adding more Saturday only service to new destinations.

Regarding BWI, Spirit will probobly add another couple destinations and Southwest will remain about steady with the possibility of a new destination.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:48 pm

My personal predictions:


At IAD:

F9 expands significantly, UA adds some more Essential air service routes.

At DCA:

F9 consolidates to IAD, AA continues to expand on short-haul routes.

At RIC:

NK adds service to LAS and TPA, DL announces mainline flights to BOS and MSP, WN axes service due to competition with NK, G4 adds JAX.

At ORF:

F9 makes TPA a year-round service.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:58 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
At RIC:

NK adds service to LAS and TPA, DL announces mainline flights to BOS and MSP, WN axes service due to competition with NK, G4 adds JAX.


In addition to RIC-LAS and RIC-TPA, NK could also add RIC-DFW and RIC-ORD nonstop service.

RIC is also located in the largest market in the contiguous U.S. that doesn't currently have any nonstop service to DEN on any LCC's, and I think that F9 entering the RIC market with nonstop service to DEN from RIC is more likely than WN, NK, or G4 adding RIC-DEN nonstop service.

If WN does drop RIC-ATL nonstop service, there are other nonstop routes such as RIC-MDW, RIC-BNA, and RIC-TPA that could be added by WN at RIC. I am unsure if WN will either completely pull out of RIC or add new nonstop routes out of RIC if WN drops RIC-ATL nonstop service.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:15 pm

I also think that Neelman's new airline (currently called Moxy) will start service to either IAD or RIC, likely to be announced in late 2019.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:34 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
I also think that Neelman's new airline (currently called Moxy) will start service to either IAD or RIC, likely to be announced in late 2019.

I think that's a strong possibility once they're off the ground. RIC was one of the first destinations once the E190s came into the fleet. David Neeleman is (or at least was) good friends with now Senator Mark Warner, which played a role in bringing them to RIC when Warner was governor.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:04 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
I also think that Neelman's new airline (currently called Moxy) will start service to either IAD or RIC, likely to be announced in late 2019.

I think RIC is definitely a good candidate for Moxy. I think IAD has enough service already, plus B6 (which is also run by Neelman) just pulled out of IAD. Plus I think RIC fits the mold of what Moxy intends to do in terms of operations.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:52 pm

N776AU wrote:
N292UX wrote:
-WN shrinks IAD a little more. I think IAD-ATL gets canned this year. There's a slim chance that they add either PHX or LAS but I highly doubt it. I expect them to cut routes rather than add

I really hope not. As frequently as I go see my family in northwest Virginia, Southwest is almost always the most affordable option. DCA and BWI are too impractical. I know it doesn't mean much, but every time I've flown between ATL and IAD on Southwest (which has been quite a few times) the flights have been completely full, even on 737-800s.

I do think that IAD does capture a lot of O&D from not only the VA side of DC, but also the northwestern part of Virginia, and even some parts of West Virginia. That being said, there's definitely a lot of O&D to support routes like IAD-ATL on a p2p carrier like WN. With that being said, I could possibly see WN eventually adding IAD-LAS/PHX down the road as a lot of people in Loudon county and NW Virginia will also have no business traveling all the way to DCA or BWI, like you said. So I could also see WN changing course slightly at IAD by adding some other routes to IAD. We'll see, anything is possible.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:05 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
LoudounHound wrote:
We should see construction begin in 2019 on the new Polaris lounge at IAD's Concourse C, with completion in early 2020. I think UA holds off on any major expansion efforts until then.

I don't think the presence or lack of a Polaris Lounge will impact their route planning decisions. Most of the potential expansion UA could do is domestic anyway, of which the vast majority of passengers wouldn't be eligible to use the Polaris Lounge. I think it will be a major upgrade for premium int'l passengers, but the company wouldn't be making its planning decision based on that fact alone.

I didn't mean to suggest that the two were necessarily linked, i.e. that UA would wait for completion of the lounge before adding routes/capacity. On the other hand, it appears they'll temporarily lose use of around three gates during construction. I'm also not sure how the construction will impact the FIS for connecting international passengers. Maybe some of the other posters are correct in that we might see a move toward an additional bank or two in 2019.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:44 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
My personal predictions:

...

At RIC:

NK adds service to LAS and TPA, DL announces mainline flights to BOS and MSP, WN axes service due to competition with NK, G4 adds JAX.

At ORF:

F9 makes TPA a year-round service.


Didn’t G4 already try JAX out of RIC, only to discontinue that service?

Related to this, I think a pretty sure bet for ORF would be for G4 to extend the summer service to JAX to run year-round.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:36 pm

DCA should not have much change. It will be interesting to see what happens with DL to BOS. Only major change might be F9 leaving DCA altogether. That would provide us with the always entertaining slot proceedings, and for out of perimeter slots at that!! Perhaps then we might see SAN, more UA to DEN, secondary CA airports (SJC,OAK,ONT, etc).

IAD will continue to add UAExpress flights. The SBN-EWR flight will not be replaced, any IAD service would need to be new service. But other connecting flights will continue to be moved from EWR.
Also, IAD will add 3 new international destinations - WAW, LOS, and CAI

BWI will lose BA flight
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:41 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
DCA should not have much change. It will be interesting to see what happens with DL to BOS. Only major change might be F9 leaving DCA altogether. That would provide us with the always entertaining slot proceedings, and for out of perimeter slots at that!! Perhaps then we might see SAN, more UA to DEN, secondary CA airports (SJC,OAK,ONT, etc).


I'm not sure why so many predict F9 will leave DCA. They've operated DCA-DEN for many years and it seems to do pretty well for them. And it's not like they can sell the slots either for cash as those beyond-perimeter exemptions can't be sold.
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:58 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
DCA should not have much change. It will be interesting to see what happens with DL to BOS. Only major change might be F9 leaving DCA altogether. That would provide us with the always entertaining slot proceedings, and for out of perimeter slots at that!! Perhaps then we might see SAN, more UA to DEN, secondary CA airports (SJC,OAK,ONT, etc).


I'm not sure why so many predict F9 will leave DCA. They've operated DCA-DEN for many years and it seems to do pretty well for them. And it's not like they can sell the slots either for cash as those beyond-perimeter exemptions can't be sold.


Is there any way that at least one of the F9 beyond-perimeter slot exemptions could be transferred over to WN? There is enough demand for WN to add DCA-DEN nonstop service if at least one of the beyond-perimeter slot exemptions currently used by F9 on its DCA-DEN route is able to be transferred over to WN since (a) DEN is one of the largest WN stations, (b) WN has a significant presence in both the DC and DEN markets to support DCA-DEN nonstop service, (c) DEN is located in the capital city of Colorado, and (d) there is a significant amount of passengers connecting to beyond-perimeter destinations in the Western U.S. from DCA on WN.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:15 pm

jplatts wrote:
FlyPNS1 wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
DCA should not have much change. It will be interesting to see what happens with DL to BOS. Only major change might be F9 leaving DCA altogether. That would provide us with the always entertaining slot proceedings, and for out of perimeter slots at that!! Perhaps then we might see SAN, more UA to DEN, secondary CA airports (SJC,OAK,ONT, etc).


I'm not sure why so many predict F9 will leave DCA. They've operated DCA-DEN for many years and it seems to do pretty well for them. And it's not like they can sell the slots either for cash as those beyond-perimeter exemptions can't be sold.


Is there any way that at least one of the F9 beyond-perimeter slot exemptions could be transferred over to WN? There is enough demand for WN to add DCA-DEN nonstop service if at least one of the beyond-perimeter slot exemptions currently used by F9 on its DCA-DEN route is able to be transferred over to WN since (a) DEN is one of the largest WN stations, (b) WN has a significant presence in both the DC and DEN markets to support DCA-DEN nonstop service, (c) DEN is located in the capital city of Colorado, and (d) there is a significant amount of passengers connecting to beyond-perimeter destinations in the Western U.S. from DCA on WN.

Why would F9, much less any airline, give up a perimeter exception slot to a competitor without getting something huge in return? F9 would have no motivation to do so.
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:22 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
Why would F9, much less any airline, give up a perimeter exception slot to a competitor without getting something huge in return? F9 would have no motivation to do so.


I can understand F9 wanting to hold onto its beyond-perimeter slot exceptions at DCA, even though WN would probably want to serve DEN nonstop from DCA if it can acquire a beyond-perimeter slot exemption at DCA that can be used on the DCA-DEN nonstop route.

There are some other nonstop routes such as DCA-LAS, DCA-PHX, and DCA-SAT that could be added by WN if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA and if WN can acquire extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions at DCA.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:07 pm

jplatts wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Why would F9, much less any airline, give up a perimeter exception slot to a competitor without getting something huge in return? F9 would have no motivation to do so.


I can understand F9 wanting to hold onto its beyond-perimeter slot exceptions at DCA, even though WN would probably want to serve DEN nonstop from DCA if it can acquire a beyond-perimeter slot exemption at DCA that can be used on the DCA-DEN nonstop route.

There are some other nonstop routes such as DCA-LAS, DCA-PHX, and DCA-SAT that could be added by WN if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA and if WN can acquire extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions at DCA.

I'm sure WN would love to serve a multitude of destinations from DCA, but I don't see it happening anytime soon. Nobody is going to give them slots, so they'll have to wait until Congress decides to add more perimeter exemptions. Given how many exemptions were granted in 2012 (the last time new exemption slots were legislated), I don't expect any new slots to be created for the foreseeable future.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:17 pm

There's no reason for F9 to give up their DCA-DEN perimeter exemption. If they did (for whatever reason) the slot would go back to the US DOT, who would then run a process to award it to a different operator. Frontier cannot sell or lease the slots, nor could they dictate which of their competitors would get the slots, nor which markets they would serve.

Currently, Frontier has 3x DCA-DEN. The US DOT would almost certainly not want to lose all of those flights to Denver, nor would they want to overly concentrate the beyond-perimeter market in a few operators.

As it stands, American has 6 beyond perimeter flights, Alaska has 5, United and Delta have 2 each, and JetBlue and Southwest have one apiece.

In other words, I wouldn't assume that Southwest would automatically get all (or even any) of the slots. I'm sure UA would love to take either additional slots to SFO or DEN off of F9's hands, too. Every airline would put in a proposal for something, I'm sure.

Regardless of carrier, the current beyond perimeter flights are:

4x LAX (2x AA, AS, DL)
4x DEN (3x F9, UA)
3x PHX (3x AA)
2x SFO (UA, AS)
2x SEA (AS)
1x SLC (DL)
1x PDX (AS)
1x SJU (B6)
1x LAS (AA)
1x AUS (WN)

The busiest lower-48 airport that's not already served is SAN, which AA stopped serving to add another LAX flight. After that, you have to get to bay area airports (OAK and SJC) where the market is already served via SFO.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:48 pm

blockski wrote:
If they did (for whatever reason) the slot would go back to the US DOT, who would then run a process to award it to a different operator.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there was one slot swap a few years ago, wasn't there? It was something like DL DCA slots for US LGA slots? Maybe I'm losing my mind, which is equally possible. Either way, it had to be approved by the DOT, and I seem to remember it taking forever to be approved. Regardless, that was a one-off sort of thing, and they were in-perimeter slots, so they were far less contentious.

While these slots can't be bought and sold and are technically worthless, their value is far too great to simply give up without a really, really good reason. Southwest will probably only have a shot at more perimeter exempt slots when more are legislated, but like I said in my last post, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

If they continue to expand on perimeter exemptions, they may as well just scrap the perimeter rule altogether and watch IAD's domestic routes go up in smoke. It'll also be at the detriment of most of the routes currently inside the perimeter, because they will be traded for beyond perimeter routes. There's no capacity for new slots, and without something crazy like a new runway (which is never, ever happening), there will never be more slots.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:24 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
blockski wrote:
If they did (for whatever reason) the slot would go back to the US DOT, who would then run a process to award it to a different operator.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there was one slot swap a few years ago, wasn't there? It was something like DL DCA slots for US LGA slots? Maybe I'm losing my mind, which is equally possible. Either way, it had to be approved by the DOT, and I seem to remember it taking forever to be approved. Regardless, that was a one-off sort of thing, and they were in-perimeter slots, so they were far less contentious.

While these slots can't be bought and sold and are technically worthless, their value is far too great to simply give up without a really, really good reason. Southwest will probably only have a shot at more perimeter exempt slots when more are legislated, but like I said in my last post, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

If they continue to expand on perimeter exemptions, they may as well just scrap the perimeter rule altogether and watch IAD's domestic routes go up in smoke. It'll also be at the detriment of most of the routes currently inside the perimeter, because they will be traded for beyond perimeter routes. There's no capacity for new slots, and without something crazy like a new runway (which is never, ever happening), there will never be more slots.


Yes, there was a DL/US slot swap, and yes, it required DOT approval.

Really, that kind of swap at DCA/LGA is the only kind of swap that would make any sense - I'm not sure what else you could swap, since the nature of slot controls at US airports is so different in all other cases.

And I completely agree about both new slots at DCA in total (no capacity for that) as well as new perimeter exemptions. MWAA will fight that tooth and nail; they've written the leases at DCA and IAD to invest the airlines in the status quo.

I'm not sure why folks in this thread keep suggesting that F9 would seek to get rid of their DCA slots - as you note, even though they're technically worthless in that they can't be sold and can't be monetized, they are nonetheless very valuable. And for that reason, I can't see F9 just giving them up absent a merger, ceasing operations, etc.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:54 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
Regardless, that was a one-off sort of thing, and they were in-perimeter slots, so they were far less contentious.


Not only were all the slots in-perimeter, they were all "owned" slots, none of them were exemption slots. Most of the beyond-perimeter slots and even a small number of in-perimeter slots are special exemptions meaning carriers cannot trade/sell them with each other. So I fully expect F9 to hold onto DCA-DEN unless the route is just hemorrhaging money or they simply go out of business. Neither seem likely right now.

As for UA at IAD, I'm sure a few more routes to IAD will come...mostly with UAX. I do wonder if UA was too slow to begin rebuilding IAD and a weakening economy (likely in 2019 or 20) will cause them to reconsider any big moves (e.g., adding new banks).
 
graham697
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:00 pm

Seems contrarian so far in this thread, but I still feel like AA will take over one LHR frequency allowing BA to deploy their assets elsewhere as part of the JV. As an AA Elite, it would be godsend.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:10 pm

graham697 wrote:
Seems contrarian so far in this thread, but I still feel like AA will take over one LHR frequency allowing BA to deploy their assets elsewhere as part of the JV. As an AA Elite, it would be godsend.

Where? At IAD? I would put the odds of that happening at <1%. Logistically it would be a pain for AA, and there would be very little advantage gained for BA or the JV.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:01 pm

 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:26 pm

capitalflyer wrote:


Interesting. So the IAD-JNB stopovers will now be 5x ACC and 2x DKR, instead of 4x ACC and 3x DKR.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:46 pm

Sun Country is re-entering DC market with flight to MSP from IAD.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 512134002/

I wonder if they regret leaving DCA? Why did they leave in the first place? Was it the LAN tag?

A good get, new airline. Any idea what gate they will share?
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:54 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
A good get, new airline. Any idea what gate they will share?

With JetBlue on the way out would they take B70?
Careful, doors are closing, will not reopen. Please wait for the next train.
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:40 pm

N776AU wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
A good get, new airline. Any idea what gate they will share?

With JetBlue on the way out would they take B70?

That's possible. Another possibility is Z10 or Z7. Frontier only uses Z10 as an offload for Z9, and the same thing happens with Air Canada but for Z7 and Z6. Maybe even B66 since DL uses this for 1 flight a day. I think the main issue will be ticket counter space with TP, AZ and now SY adding service.

Flight times from Sun Country's website:
Depart MSP at1:35 PM- Arrive IAD 4:55 PM
Depart IAD at 6:00 PM- Arrive MSP 7:45 PM
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:21 am

I also would not be surprised to see SY from TPA/RSW/MSP seasonally to RIC. It's a long shot, but it could happen - RIC still does not have much LCC action compared to DCA and ORF.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:20 am

Agenda and documents for this week’s MWAA Board Meeting are up: http://www.mwaa.com/about/january-16-20 ... e-meetings

The air traffic stats are interesting, as the Dulles growth continued through November, well above previous years. Dulles traffic is up 5.1% YTD, and creeping back above DCA as the busier airport (though both still trail BWI). In November 2018 alone, IAD domestic is up nearly 12% over the previous year.
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf

There are some other files with pictures of the Dulles Metro project, but the most interesting is the progress photos from the DCA expansion:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ey.pdf.pdf
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:32 pm

Wow Air is reducing BWI from 11 weekly back to 7 weekly in S19. (Its other four North American destinations, BOS, YYZ, and YUL, were always 7 weekly and will remain so.)
Next flight: November 23 BA216 IAD-LHR B744
November 24 BA814 LHR-CPH A320

SWA, UAL, DAL, AWE, ASA, TRS, DLH, CLH, AFR, BAW, EIN, AAL | E190 DC94 CRJ2 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B753 B762 B77W A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A388 MD88
 
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msp747
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:32 pm

blockski wrote:
Agenda and documents for this week’s MWAA Board Meeting are up: http://www.mwaa.com/about/january-16-20 ... e-meetings

The air traffic stats are interesting, as the Dulles growth continued through November, well above previous years. Dulles traffic is up 5.1% YTD, and creeping back above DCA as the busier airport (though both still trail BWI). In November 2018 alone, IAD domestic is up nearly 12% over the previous year.
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf

There are some other files with pictures of the Dulles Metro project, but the most interesting is the progress photos from the DCA expansion:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ey.pdf.pdf


Also on the agenda: Approval of reimbursement agreement with UA for the new Polaris Lounge. MWAA is covering the cost of expanding Concourse C structure, while UA will pay for the lounge itself.

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... irport.pdf

Happy to see this is finally happening and I'll be curious to see how quickly construction begins. I know the original stories had also said they were expanding the customs facility with this expansion, but I see no reference to that in the document. Is that no longer part of the project?
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:13 am

In a surprise move, Allegiant just announced flights from ORF to CLE. I would not be surprised to see F9 do a similar thing in RIC, with flights from DEN/CLE/LAS to RIC, or restart flights over at PHF.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:42 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
In a surprise move, Allegiant just announced flights from ORF to CLE. I would not be surprised to see F9 do a similar thing in RIC, with flights from DEN/CLE/LAS to RIC, or restart flights over at PHF.

Presumably it has to be a matter of time before F9's dartboard lands on RIC. I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. They're the odd man out when it comes to ULCC service.
 
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vatveng
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:06 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
In a surprise move, Allegiant just announced flights from ORF to CLE. I would not be surprised to see F9 do a similar thing in RIC, with flights from DEN/CLE/LAS to RIC, or restart flights over at PHF.


Frontier has a decent-sized presence at ORF (much larger than it previously had at PHF) so don't expect them to ever go back to PHF unless they have a huge falling out with Norfolk.

Allegiant is starting both CLE and CVG from ORF. Both former hub routes that were cut when Cleveland and Cincinnati got dehubbed. Both are going to be 2x weekly and seasonal.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:32 am

I’m also surprised that Ultimate hasn’t tried anything at DCA - they technically don’t have to follow any of the slot rules, as they are “general aviation.” (Kind of how they got into Atlanta Peachtree - they aren’t technically a commercial airline).
 
EarlyLateORD
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:53 pm

Though it is rail related, good job Norfolk, VA for landing a second daily Amtrak frequency to DC/NYC.

https://content.govdelivery.com/bulleti ... PT-228f13e

RICHMOND – Hampton Roads citizens will soon have more options to avoid traffic and congestion in tunnels and on Interstates 64 and 95 with the Monday, March 4th, debut of a second Amtrak train service serving Norfolk, Secretary of Transportation Shannon Valentine announced today.

“Rail plays a critical role in our multimodal transportation system, with an economic impact of $73 billion of output across the Commonwealth,” Secretary of Transportation Shannon Valentine said. “The additional passenger rail service announced today will expand access, improve mobility, and create greater economic opportunity.”

There are 699 miles of rail in the Hampton Roads area, which provides $45.1 billion of output, or 27.7% of the district’s total output, and $1.2 billion in tax revenue, which comprises 22.2% of the district’s total tax revenue. The rail industry employs 212,484 people in the Hampton Roads district, generating $12.2 billion in income for this work force.

“The new service to Hampton Roads offers new travel options as well as schedule changes that will improve the performance for these trains, said Jennifer Mitchell, Director of the Department of Rail and Public Transportation. “None of this would be possible without our close and valued partnerships with Amtrak, CSX, Norfolk Southern, and the Cities of Norfolk and Newport News.”

The second daily roundtrip train to Norfolk is scheduled to begin Monday, March 4, 2019. In addition to the current 6:10 AM daily departure, the second Norfolk train will depart weekdays around 9:00 A.M. Passenger rail service to and from Norfolk is part of Amtrak’s Northeast Regional train service connecting the Commonwealth to the northeast, offering customers a same-seat trip to and from 17 Virginia stations to Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston and other destinations. Additional details regarding schedules and ticket sales are forthcoming.
 
DCAfan
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:53 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
I’m also surprised that Ultimate hasn’t tried anything at DCA - they technically don’t have to follow any of the slot rules, as they are “general aviation.” (Kind of how they got into Atlanta Peachtree - they aren’t technically a commercial airline).


GA is heavily regulated at DCA. They would have to hire an armed security office.. In addition, GA is subject to the slot rules (they have 4 per hour) with limited flexibility for late (or early) flights.

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