So for DL, perhaps this was mentioned, maybe CP E jets transfer to OO or YX and G7 CR7s transfer to 9E? I have no idea who owns G7s CR9s.

Follow-up. I see that apparently DL owns or leases G7s CR9s flying for DL?

Correction. Apparently G7 owns their CR9s so they probably won’t go to DL. Of course, never say never. But the CR7s, probably yes.

capitalflyer wrote:

Just like the parent airlines, regionals will go through consolidation. There are currently 14 on this list. I would think half a dozen could get eaten.

Regionals left standing
Endeavor, SkyWest, Republic, Horizon, Envoy, ExpressJet, GoJet, and Mesa.

Compass, Piedmont, PSA, Air Wisconsin, Trans States, and Commutair will be no more.

SkyWest will sell ExpressJet to UA as wholly owned subsidiary and switch focus to large RJ competition with Republic and Mesa. Compass and Trans States merge into larger GoJet which will diversify into 50 seater market. Commutair will also be bought by UA to compete with AA Eagle. Piedmont and PSA will be folded into Envoy.

Pure speculation, but if consolidation happens (and it seems likely with smaller regionals struggling) this might be one way it could happen.

What makes you think PSA and Piedmont will be no more?


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I think he is putting out a possibility for consolidation. I agree, there will be some consolidation given the up gauging to mainline an the pilot situation at the regionals. I think United has the most opportunity for consolidation, followed by American. Delta and American have announced or already accomplished reductions. I wonder if it might end up looking something like this:

Endeavor, Skywest, Republic, Horizon, Envoy, PSA, Express Jet and Mesa. Will be here
Not sure what will happen with Air Wisconsin
Being consolidated Compass, GoJet, TransStates, Commutair and Piedmont.

Endeavor, Skywest and Republic end up with the Delta flying (Current Go Jet and Compass flying absorbed)

At American, Piedmont is consolidated into Envoy who will fly small and large Embraers.
PSA will fly the Bombardiers and Skywest, Republic and Mesa will be left with Gojet and Compass flying absorbed.

At United, Commutair, Translates and Expressjet flying become one, Skywest and Mesa take over Gojet flying and perhaps Air Wisconsin.

Not sure what the environments are like at these companies, but I do think some consolidation is going to happen. It will be interesting to see. I think the next round will be with the United Express carriers.

caflyboy wrote:

At United, Commutair, Translates and Expressjet flying become one,

That would bring it pretty much full circle, since all that flying was ExpressJet's about 7 years ago.

caflyboy wrote:

At American, Piedmont is consolidated into Envoy who will fly small and large Embraers.
PSA will fly the Bombardiers and Skywest, Republic and Mesa will be left with Gojet and Compass flying absorbed.

There is no benefit for AA to consolidate Piedmont into Envoy; the manpower required to staff the flying is pretty much the same regardless of who does it since there is no real overlap in bases to lead to a crew benefit.

Also, by keeping Piedmont around; it gives AA something to pit against Envoy pilots when it comes to negotiating pay and # of small RJs.

Also, you reference GoJet; GoJet doesn't fly for AA at all.

I'd also say that Mesa will probably end up being shown the door at AA. The CR9 contract for the LUS birds should expire sometime next year as I recall and Mesa's performance is subpar on both the on-time performance front as well as a customer experience side (broken seats, inop APUs, unhappy crews, etc.) Those CR9s would likely be replaced by a combo of E75s (from the Envoy front in DFW) and CR9s (from OO, replaced by E175s at DL).

The end game for the regionals will be interesting. As mentioned in this thread, up gauging by the mainlines, consolidation, hiring at the majors are just some of the factors. There is also hiring by LCCs and Freight. Another question is how long will the regional model make business sense?

What happens when oil jumps up, those AA ERJ-140 & ERJ-145's will not look so good anymore and they will probably go back to the desert and parked where they came from. Piedmont future is tied to the ERJ-145, almost like the Dash-8's they had for years.

Are any of the big 3 pushing new orders of E-jets into Republic?

I don’t believe Republic has new jets coming. Though scoped out, new jets are always a possibility as replacements. OO has 20 900s with 70 seats coming to replace old 700s. It seems likely that new E jets will find their way to the big 3 regionals as needed for replacements. That should be enough for Boeing. Interestly, it seems the fate of the E2 rests on international orders.

rsgolfpunk wrote:

I don’t believe Republic has new jets coming. Though scoped out, new jets are always a possibility as replacements. OO has 20 900s with 70 seats coming to replace old 700s. It seems likely that new E jets will find their way to the big 3 regionals as needed for replacements. That should be enough for Boeing. Interestly, it seems the fate of the E2 rests on international orders.

Republic actually does have new jets coming. 100 of them in fact. The order was just firmed in late December. As part of the deal, YX can take any version: E175, E175SC, or the E2. Just depends on the current industry environment (i.e. scope).

Who they will operate for is another question though. Everyone is scoped out, so no one has a clue where they’re headed. Some will undoubtedly be replacements for the older 170s. Could the others be additional flying for Delta (GoJet replacement) or American (Mesa replacement)? Or could it be something completely out of left field like Alaska or even JetBlue?

It will be interesting to see what happens. I, as a YX employee, personally believe there’s an out-clause in the order in case scope relief doesn’t happen.

An out clause would be wise in the current environment. Trying to find a home for 100 jets could be a challenge.

Follow up. In all seriousness, who would write the check for 100 new jets?

So UA is going to launch the CRJ 550 with the CR7s. First 25 will come from G7 and the 2nd 25 will come from existing inventory. Wonder if these are Mesa CR7s or OO CR7s? Looks like G7 will be getting 25 from someone. Also, if this is to be 50 seat flying will it replace a current 50 seat capacity? Wonder whose capacity gets cut? And then I wonder if that frees up more 70 seat flying?

caflyboy wrote:

So UA is going to launch the CRJ 550 with the CR7s. First 25 will come from G7 and the 2nd 25 will come from existing inventory. Wonder if these are Mesa CR7s or OO CR7s? Looks like G7 will be getting 25 from someone. Also, if this is to be 50 seat flying will it replace a current 50 seat capacity? Wonder whose capacity gets cut? And then I wonder if that frees up more 70 seat flying?

United isn’t scoped out on 50 seaters so I doubt any 50 seaters get parked

So it will just be a reduction in 70 seaters? or would they backfill with say the new orders for express jet and make those E75s 70 seaters?

So it’s a potentially great thing for G7 if they lose the DL flying. They should be able to staff 50 700s.

DiamondFlyer wrote:

evank516 wrote:

Does Delta's consolidation mean their regional fleet is going to shrink? If so could that be related to the A220 starting soon?

It does not, it simply means there will be fewer carriers operating the airplanes. Of the 2 carriers rumored to be going away, they own none of the airplanes, as they're either DL owned or leased. They will simply have a different logo and a different d/b/a on the ticket.

Actually, the regional fleet will shrink by a handful of 50 seaters this year and a few more next year as A220 is going to start displacing 717 and E75 flying on the west coast, which will lead to 717 and A220 displacing large RJ flying east of the Rockies, while those large RJs will displace and make 50 seaters unnecessary. In less than 5 years, there won't be but 30-40 50 seaters, if that.

So would it be that OO shifts their UA CRJ 700s to G7 for conversion to CRJ 550s but then OO takes the G7 CRJ 700 and 900 flying from G7 and fly those for DL? That way G7 exits DL OO Takes G7 DL flying and UA gains the new 50 seaters? If there is no reduction in 50 seat flying at UA they are going to have even more 50 seaters out there. How do the regionals get paid for the CPA flying? Is it by Aircraft type or number of seats?

Sancho99504 wrote:

DiamondFlyer wrote:

evank516 wrote:

Does Delta's consolidation mean their regional fleet is going to shrink? If so could that be related to the A220 starting soon?

It does not, it simply means there will be fewer carriers operating the airplanes. Of the 2 carriers rumored to be going away, they own none of the airplanes, as they're either DL owned or leased. They will simply have a different logo and a different d/b/a on the ticket.

Actually, the regional fleet will shrink by a handful of 50 seaters this year and a few more next year as A220 is going to start displacing 717 and E75 flying on the west coast, which will lead to 717 and A220 displacing large RJ flying east of the Rockies, while those large RJs will displace and make 50 seaters unnecessary. In less than 5 years, there won't be but 30-40 50 seaters, if that.

I was speaking to United. United has no A220s on order

OO only has 19 700's at UA, and as far as I know they are OO owned so they wouldn't be shifted over to G7. G7 could bring their planes over from DL and OO could repurpose their UA 700 flying elsewhere. Although after looking at the EV sale, OO was given protection over current flying and a priority position to place 25 new aircraft with UA. Things that make you go hmmm.

It would seem unlikely that G7 could use their DL 700s for UA. DL owns them I believe. Of course, G7 could buy them.

gcb5196 wrote:

OO only has 19 700's at UA, and as far as I know they are OO owned so they wouldn't be shifted over to G7. G7 could bring their planes over from DL and OO could repurpose their UA 700 flying elsewhere. Although after looking at the EV sale, OO was given protection over current flying and a priority position to place 25 new aircraft with UA. Things that make you go hmmm.

I doubt you'll see much of a reduction in OO CRJ 700 flying for any carrier. AFAIK, OO is the only one certified to fly into ASE and only on the CRJ7. So while you may see a slight reduction of OO CRJ7 flying, you probably will not see it reach zero at either DL, UA, or AA. It will be interesting to see if anyone has OO shift some CRJ7s to the 550 and fly from ASE with it.

Peace

DiamondFlyer wrote:

Sancho99504 wrote:

DiamondFlyer wrote:

It does not, it simply means there will be fewer carriers operating the airplanes. Of the 2 carriers rumored to be going away, they own none of the airplanes, as they're either DL owned or leased. They will simply have a different logo and a different d/b/a on the ticket.

Actually, the regional fleet will shrink by a handful of 50 seaters this year and a few more next year as A220 is going to start displacing 717 and E75 flying on the west coast, which will lead to 717 and A220 displacing large RJ flying east of the Rockies, while those large RJs will displace and make 50 seaters unnecessary. In less than 5 years, there won't be but 30-40 50 seaters, if that.

I was speaking to United. United has no A220s on order

Okay, thank you for the clarification. Cheers

rsgolfpunk wrote:

It would seem unlikely that G7 could use their DL 700s for UA. DL owns them I believe. Of course, G7 could buy them.

Delta does own the 22 cr7er's, and the 7 cr9Lr's are leased through Wells Fargo trust.

It would be interesting for UA to buy or lease G7s DL 700s. It would get UA close to the 50 550s they want G7 to fly. It would spare DL from moving them to another DC carrier.

Updated backlog from Embraer (FINALLY) for the end of the year shows the following backlogs for 175's
American 35
Horizon 7
Republic 100
Skywest 12
United 25
Total 180

Guessing with everyone scoped out all of these will be replacing CRJ's or 170's?

In what kind of time period/act of god does it take to get mainlines to reevaluate their scope clauses?

tkoenig95 wrote:

In what kind of time period/act of god does it take to get mainlines to reevaluate their scope clauses?

Section 6 negotiations on pilot contracts, and a pilot group willing to sell out (none of which are). Bankruptcy is probably the easiest path toward scope changes today

iceberg210 wrote:

Updated backlog from Embraer (FINALLY) for the end of the year shows the following backlogs for 175's
American 35
Horizon 7
Republic 100
Skywest 12
United 25
Total 180

Guessing with everyone scoped out all of these will be replacing CRJ's or 170's?

The 100 republic orders are purely speculative, IMO. The rest have been accounted for with scope.

DiamondFlyer wrote:

iceberg210 wrote:

Updated backlog from Embraer (FINALLY) for the end of the year shows the following backlogs for 175's
American 35
Horizon 7
Republic 100
Skywest 12
United 25
Total 180

Guessing with everyone scoped out all of these will be replacing CRJ's or 170's?

The 100 republic orders are purely speculative, IMO. The rest have been accounted for with scope.

Normally I'd agree with you but especially with the new Accounting Standard ASC 606 that for example pulled the 100 175E2 for Skywest off the Embraer books although as was said by both parties the contract did not change, the fact that they're on the backlog makes me think it's a firm order. Now it might be a speculative 175E2 gambit, which makes a lot of sense, and would be my bet on what is behind the order.

iceberg210 wrote:

DiamondFlyer wrote:

iceberg210 wrote:

Updated backlog from Embraer (FINALLY) for the end of the year shows the following backlogs for 175's
American 35
Horizon 7
Republic 100
Skywest 12
United 25
Total 180

Guessing with everyone scoped out all of these will be replacing CRJ's or 170's?

The 100 republic orders are purely speculative, IMO. The rest have been accounted for with scope.

Normally I'd agree with you but especially with the new Accounting Standard ASC 606 that for example pulled the 100 175E2 for Skywest off the Embraer books although as was said by both parties the contract did not change, the fact that they're on the backlog makes me think it's a firm order. Now it might be a speculative 175E2 gambit, which makes a lot of sense, and would be my bet on what is behind the order.

I think a good number of the YX order will be delivered, maybe just not all 100. They do fly a number of original 170, that could be replaced by a 175SC easily