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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:24 am

tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
The productivity Commission has handed down its draft report into airports and its not good news for Qantas

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881094920z


QF time to cough up & write up a nice big fat check.
I wonder the impact this would have on QF expansion plans, PER-JNB,AKL,CDG,FRA?

EK413

Probably nothing. If QF believes there is a viable market for non-stop services from PER to CDG, FRA etc, then they will do it. They have a lounge, staff etc in T1 so there is nothing stopping them and, as a shareholder, I'd expect them to pursue it if it passes their internal return hurdles. Personally, I have my doubts about CDG and FRA but believe JNB is a no-brainer.


Would defeat QF transit under 1 terminal vision.
Yes the route might be viable but to operate from T1 come the headaches with aircraft towed from T3/4 to T1 which can take up to 30mins.

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
GRJGeorge
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:27 am

berari wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


SAA has not collapsed. If anything its Australia service is more competitive to those in Zimbabwe than ET's or any of the middle eastern airlines. How big of a factor is rugby and cricket to warrant an airline service that may make it profitable? Doesn't QF still fly to South Africa, if anything, it stands to benefit.

kriskim wrote:

Well it looks like ET thinks there is demand: There has been alot of discussion for the new service, even the embassies are being involved as both the Victorian and Ethiopian governments are very keen for a direct service.



ET would depend on a lot more than Zimbabwe to make it work, and even then Southern Africa wouldn't be its target market for it is well served by SAA and QF via JNB. ET would scrape off customers from all over Africa to be able to make it work.



Maybe if ET builds up their recently launched Mozambique operations they could use it similarly like they do with their Asky operation in Lome,Togo. Eventually building a regional operator out of Maputo, Mozambique, then they can consider long-haul via MPM, like they currently serve US routes via LFW (and ABJ now)...ADD-MPM-PER/MEL...capturing traffic in a region where there will be some demand, while also still continuing on to their main hub in ADD for more connecting options (albeit more lower yielding perhaps though)...if Ethiopian Mozambique funnels traffic from JNB,CPT,DUR,HRE,LUN,DAR,LLW etc in to MPM
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:06 pm

qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.


New aircraft won’t solve VA internationals problems though.

While it is was only the first month without NZ, 67% is pretty poor considering what their main competitors achieved and the big song and dance there was around this. Historically VA was always behind NZ and QF but not this low. QF and NZ have been able to absorb all the extra capacity they put on, except for VA.

And it isn’t just New Zealand. Sans Fiji, VA routinely do poorly against its competitors. USA is a good example. Even with QF and PX not having a code sharing agreement, VA still can’t make a dent.

Considering the discounted airfares to HKG I’m not surprised they performed better over the busiest period of the year. However, I’m guessing QF and CX did better.
You meant lose, not loose.
 
Qantas59
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:18 pm

Does anyone recall when Qantas moved their headquarters from Hunter St. in Sydney to Mascot? Cheers.
[photoid][photoid][/photoid][/photoid]/Users/jaytanguay/Desktop/Screen Shot 2016-10-27 at 9.30.09 AM.png
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:21 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:
VA's 737s are way too big for many markets and by using smaller jets on Alliance (POM is the example) can perhaps improve their yields. Take that option away and back to square one.


Operating the F100 on POM probably wont improve yields, it will improve load factors but not necessarily yields. Operating a smaller jet increases the seat cost versus a larger jet. This is one key point AJ made a couple of weeks ago in regards to operating the A320 on PER-BME versus a 717 or F100, the larger aircraft lowers the seat cost per passenger and hence cheaper to run in the long run. Having looked at routes where both the 737 and F100 run on the same route the F100 burns just as much fuel as the 737, in a lot of cases there is no clear advantage of operating the smaller aircraft. Having the fleet primarily based around the 737 keeps it simple, effectively any 737 can be put on any route. Additionally the same argument can be made with the 737 vs A332, where 1 A332 whether it be PER-MEL or PER-SYD burns around about the same as 2 737's on the same route, of course the added benefit of operating 2 737's over an A332 is an added gain of around 70 seats. If you add into the mix the 737MAX then fuel burn will be better than the F100 so the argument then becomes in favour of the 737 and on some routes it is easier to abuse using the 737 over another smaller jet as it is cheaper to run
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:36 pm

Wonder why they would swap to a QQ 100.... perhaps the overall cost is lower with a sublease. That effectively removes about 60 seats per flight. The 737s are just too big for many of VA’s routes.
NSW based avgeek
 
berari
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:41 pm

GRJGeorge wrote:

Maybe if ET builds up their recently launched Mozambique operations they could use it similarly like they do with their Asky operation in Lome,Togo. Eventually building a regional operator out of Maputo, Mozambique, then they can consider long-haul via MPM, like they currently serve US routes via LFW (and ABJ now)...ADD-MPM-PER/MEL...capturing traffic in a region where there will be some demand, while also still continuing on to their main hub in ADD for more connecting options (albeit more lower yielding perhaps though)...if Ethiopian Mozambique funnels traffic from JNB,CPT,DUR,HRE,LUN,DAR,LLW etc in to MPM


I think this is what the new Zambia-based venture should provide, but it has been delayed once again. Ethiopian Mozambique was strictly for internal flights, but then again stranger things have happened.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:43 pm

getluv wrote:
qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.


New aircraft won’t solve VA internationals problems though.

While it is was only the first month without NZ, 67% is pretty poor considering what their main competitors achieved and the big song and dance there was around this. Historically VA was always behind NZ and QF but not this low. QF and NZ have been able to absorb all the extra capacity they put on, except for VA.

And it isn’t just New Zealand. Sans Fiji, VA routinely do poorly against its competitors. USA is a good example. Even with QF and PX not having a code sharing agreement, VA still can’t make a dent.

Considering the discounted airfares to HKG I’m not surprised they performed better over the busiest period of the year. However, I’m guessing QF and CX did better.


That’s what I was alluding to in comparable markets VA under performing. Not filling their planes. I’m not talking about Brunei or any other route VA doesn’t fly. I’m talking about routes that VA flies versus its competitors. Apparently US - Australia yields are getting trashed so load factors under 80% aren’t going to help.
Even Fiji and Indonesia. Look at VA then look at QF/JQ loads.
FJ doing better as well but GA is struggling.
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oskarclare
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:57 pm

https://amp.couriermail.com.au/business ... f2dc3d52cc

Thai AirAsia X has announced their first Australia service. DMK-BNE will be started form June this year operating 4x weekly. This is BNE’s first foreign LCC!
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:53 pm

Interesting they are launching BNE, a market not served by [Malaysia] AirAsiaX.

With TG downgauging from 747 to 359 and EK dropping BKK-SYD I am really surprised that SYD isn't their first destination. A lot of capacity has been stripped out of the market.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:37 pm

qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
VA's 737s are way too big for many markets and by using smaller jets on Alliance (POM is the example) can perhaps improve their yields. Take that option away and back to square one.


Operating the F100 on POM probably wont improve yields, it will improve load factors but not necessarily yields. Operating a smaller jet increases the seat cost versus a larger jet.


Just checking, I was always of the understanding that yield was a revenue only measure? Ie RPK, RFTK etc? Or is there a gross yield at the revenue line and a net yield at the net profit line? If yes to the second, how is this calculated to take unused capacity into account?

If yield is revenue only, then the only way to increase this is to increase price, no? As reduced load similarly reduces the denominator?
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:38 pm

oskarclare wrote:
https://amp.couriermail.com.au/business/bangkok-to-brisbane-flights-announced-by-air-asia-x/news-story/4fc5d7128cd151705203eef2dc3d52cc

Thai AirAsia X has announced their first Australia service. DMK-BNE will be started form June this year operating 4x weekly. This is BNE’s first foreign LCC!


With Thai reducing services to Brisbane maybe they see it as best opportunity
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:40 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Interesting they are launching BNE, a market not served by [Malaysia] AirAsiaX.

With TG downgauging from 747 to 359 and EK dropping BKK-SYD I am really surprised that SYD isn't their first destination. A lot of capacity has been stripped out of the market.


Maybe that’s it though. There was way too much capacity Australia wide. Time to wind back. With only 4 weekly TG flights perhaps BNE was under served.
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:42 pm

Report QF cancels remaining A388 orders

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... perjumbos/
 
SenFinn
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:55 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wonder why they would swap to a QQ 100.... perhaps the overall cost is lower with a sublease. That effectively removes about 60 seats per flight. The 737s are just too big for many of VA’s routes.


Perhaps the issue is cost of capital. A new 737 V an old F100. And the F100 would have less cabin crew. It’s not just the actual trip cost that counts. It’s the cost of ownership and hence operation. I’m sure the F100 is more expensive to maintain too. I agree, the overall cost must be lower or why bother.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:08 am

Looks like this indeed is the end of the line for the A380.

How long do we think QF will fly its 12? 2030?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:17 am

qf2220 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
VA's 737s are way too big for many markets and by using smaller jets on Alliance (POM is the example) can perhaps improve their yields. Take that option away and back to square one.


Operating the F100 on POM probably wont improve yields, it will improve load factors but not necessarily yields. Operating a smaller jet increases the seat cost versus a larger jet.


Just checking, I was always of the understanding that yield was a revenue only measure? Ie RPK, RFTK etc? Or is there a gross yield at the revenue line and a net yield at the net profit line? If yes to the second, how is this calculated to take unused capacity into account?

If yield is revenue only, then the only way to increase this is to increase price, no? As reduced load similarly reduces the denominator?


Yield = Revenue / RPK
RASK = Revenue / ASK

There are two ways to increase RASK:
- Increasing total revenue
- Decreasing ASKs - this does not mean a capacity cut necessarily: as an example, QF's hub switch from DXB to SIN decreased the distance flown thus decreased ASKs) so assuming revenue was flat their RASK would have gone up from that routing change.

By incorporating RPKs instead of ASKs, Yield is influenced by loads on a route. So if my loads go up but my revenue stays flat, my Yield will drop and vice versa.

Applied to the VA POM situation, if they exchange a 737 with an F100 and continue to sell the same amount of tickets at the same average fare, their RASK will improve significantly but their Yield will not move an inch as they will still have the same RPK and revenue.
Last edited by aviationaware on Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:17 am

qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
VA's 737s are way too big for many markets and by using smaller jets on Alliance (POM is the example) can perhaps improve their yields. Take that option away and back to square one.


Operating the F100 on POM probably wont improve yields, it will improve load factors but not necessarily yields. Operating a smaller jet increases the seat cost versus a larger jet. This is one key point AJ made a couple of weeks ago in regards to operating the A320 on PER-BME versus a 717 or F100, the larger aircraft lowers the seat cost per passenger and hence cheaper to run in the long run. Having looked at routes where both the 737 and F100 run on the same route the F100 burns just as much fuel as the 737, in a lot of cases there is no clear advantage of operating the smaller aircraft. Having the fleet primarily based around the 737 keeps it simple, effectively any 737 can be put on any route. Additionally the same argument can be made with the 737 vs A332, where 1 A332 whether it be PER-MEL or PER-SYD burns around about the same as 2 737's on the same route, of course the added benefit of operating 2 737's over an A332 is an added gain of around 70 seats. If you add into the mix the 737MAX then fuel burn will be better than the F100 so the argument then becomes in favour of the 737 and on some routes it is easier to abuse using the 737 over another smaller jet as it is cheaper to run


Airline accounting isn't that black and white, otherwise all routes would be operated by A321s and A380s. Flying a full plane will almost always make more profit than a half empty plane, even if CASM is higher. Lower cost of ownership, lower crew costs etc plus the opportunity cost of not using the larger frame elsewhere all factor into the overall picture, and airlines are therefore always looking to match capacity with demand.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:28 am

aryonoco wrote:
Looks like this indeed is the end of the line for the A380.

How long do we think QF will fly its 12? 2030?


Given they will be spending quite a bit to refit the cabins, I would imagine they’ll be flying another 10 years.

I wonder if toward the end of their life we will seem them fly SYD/MEL-PER just like with the 743s and now the 744s...
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:38 am

aryonoco wrote:
Looks like this indeed is the end of the line for the A380.

How long do we think QF will fly its 12? 2030?


The A380s are impaired on the balance sheet (since 2014) so they don't pose a big accounting risk anymore. They will probably fly until their upcoming cabin refresh is outdated with a chance of early retirement if Project Sunrise goes ill and they need to redeploy the new jets elsewhere.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:53 am

NH seats for PER-NRT go on sale today. Not sure what their source is, but apparently more pax flying PER-Tokyo than PER-BNE each week.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881096216z
 
oskarclare
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:57 am

Flights will start from 25 JUN 19

XJ310 DMK/BNE 2340/1135+1 Mon/Tue/Fri/Sat
XJ311 BNE/DMK 1250/1910 Tue/Wed/Sat/Sun

Great news for BNE. Hopefully a HKT service may be started eventually by them.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:58 am

waoz1 wrote:
Report QF cancels remaining A388 orders

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... perjumbos/


The pre-half year results information 'leaking' has started. Wonder what this means for Sunrise, it could go either way IMO.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:00 am

aviationaware wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Operating the F100 on POM probably wont improve yields, it will improve load factors but not necessarily yields. Operating a smaller jet increases the seat cost versus a larger jet.


Just checking, I was always of the understanding that yield was a revenue only measure? Ie RPK, RFTK etc? Or is there a gross yield at the revenue line and a net yield at the net profit line? If yes to the second, how is this calculated to take unused capacity into account?

If yield is revenue only, then the only way to increase this is to increase price, no? As reduced load similarly reduces the denominator?


Yield = Revenue / RPK
RASK = Revenue / ASK

There are two ways to increase RASK:
- Increasing total revenue
- Decreasing ASKs - this does not mean a capacity cut necessarily: as an example, QF's hub switch from DXB to SIN decreased the distance flown thus decreased ASKs) so assuming revenue was flat their RASK would have gone up from that routing change.

By incorporating RPKs instead of ASKs, Yield is influenced by loads on a route. So if my loads go up but my revenue stays flat, my Yield will drop and vice versa.

Applied to the VA POM situation, if they exchange a 737 with an F100 and continue to sell the same amount of tickets at the same average fare, their RASK will improve significantly but their Yield will not move an inch as they will still have the same RPK and revenue.


Yep this is all my understanding. The RASK bit was the measure I didn't cover. Thanks.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:02 am

getluv wrote:
qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.


New aircraft won’t solve VA internationals problems though.

While it is was only the first month without NZ, 67% is pretty poor considering what their main competitors achieved and the big song and dance there was around this. Historically VA was always behind NZ and QF but not this low. QF and NZ have been able to absorb all the extra capacity they put on, except for VA.

And it isn’t just New Zealand. Sans Fiji, VA routinely do poorly against its competitors. USA is a good example. Even with QF and PX not having a code sharing agreement, VA still can’t make a dent.

Considering the discounted airfares to HKG I’m not surprised they performed better over the busiest period of the year. However, I’m guessing QF and CX did better.

Not sure about Australian advertising but here in NZ, VA since tieing in with NZ have literally had no advertising over the years, so I'm not surprised VAs loads on the Tasman were poor in October. It was also a quiet month traditionally so the loads from December till April will be interesting as the advertising have also ramped up over here.
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:09 am

F100Flyer wrote:
NH seats for PER-NRT go on sale today. Not sure what their source is, but apparently more pax flying PER-Tokyo than PER-BNE each week.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881096216z


They have updated their site with Perth info showing the products on board etc.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/au/internation ... s/nrt-per/

Around $850 return economy and $3500 business return isn't bad
You are paying that for CX or SQ
Last edited by waoz1 on Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:13 am

qf2220 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
Report QF cancels remaining A388 orders

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... perjumbos/


The pre-half year results information 'leaking' has started. Wonder what this means for Sunrise, it could go either way IMO.


I think this has more to do with EK's apparent upcoming cancellation of their A380 order, and hence Airbus' closing down of the program. They are clearing the books.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:13 am

If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:50 am

F100Flyer wrote:
NH seats for PER-NRT go on sale today. Not sure what their source is, but apparently more pax flying PER-Tokyo than PER-BNE each week.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881096216z


Their source would be their blooming imagination. There is no way in hell this could be true.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:14 am

Pcoder wrote:
If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.


Interesting, when is the next update to the market due?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:22 am

aviationaware wrote:
F100Flyer wrote:
NH seats for PER-NRT go on sale today. Not sure what their source is, but apparently more pax flying PER-Tokyo than PER-BNE each week.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881096216z


Their source would be their blooming imagination. There is no way in hell this could be true.


It looks like the article has been amended, which isn't surprising since the insinuation is so clearly false it would be laughable if it hadn't been published in a major newspaper. The standard of journalism today is woeful.

I also got a giggle/eye roll out of the line about this being one of the most highly anticipated route launches in years.......…….......... Or the last 10 months since PER-LHR.
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Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:32 am

smi0006 wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.


Interesting, when is the next update to the market due?

Qantas as of 1.30pm AEDT has not announced anything on the stock market :

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price- ... ompany/QAN

Which probably indicates this report of the cancellation has probably jumped the gun as they are probably still negotiating with Airbus. Company directors can get into trouble for not properly informing the stock exchange as soon as possible.
 
Boof
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:50 am

Pcoder wrote:
If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.


Deposits for JQ's A321LR's perhaps?? Has been speculation in the past that the A380 deposits were long gone on the JQ groups A32x fleet as these are shown as ordered by Qantas in the Airbus O&D book. Not sure if they would need to disclose the change...
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Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:55 am

Boof wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.


Deposits for JQ's A321LR's perhaps?? Has been speculation in the past that the A380 deposits were long gone on the JQ groups A32x fleet as these are shown as ordered by Qantas in the Airbus O&D book. Not sure if they would need to disclose the change...


They already have 99 neos on order, so it would have to be in addition to these ones. Airbus have already a lot of orders for the a320neo series, so I don't see why they would allow these deposits to be used for already ordered planes.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:11 am

Pcoder wrote:
Airbus have already a lot of orders for the a320neo series, so I don't see why they would allow these deposits to be used for already ordered planes.


First of all, if Airbus cancel's the program, I'm sure QF's contract would have clauses about those deposits in case of program cancellation.

Secondly, Airbus loses money on every A380 delivery. Some informed speculation on the other thread has calculated that they lose around $50-$60 million USD per A380 delivery. They'd love to move those deposits towards a program which actually makes them money.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:17 am

aryonoco wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
Airbus have already a lot of orders for the a320neo series, so I don't see why they would allow these deposits to be used for already ordered planes.


First of all, if Airbus cancel's the program, I'm sure QF's contract would have clauses about those deposits in case of program cancellation.

Secondly, Airbus loses money on every A380 delivery. Some informed speculation on the other thread has calculated that they lose around $50-$60 million USD per A380 delivery. They'd love to move those deposits towards a program which actually makes them money.


Although it relies on them Cancelling the program, which they haven't officially done yet. When the a350-800 was cancelled the orders were not removed just before any announcement, infact the orders stayed on the books for a while.

I think this possible cancellation is more of a qantas change of business strategy, rather than a airbus cleaning books exercise.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:32 am

smi0006 wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.


Interesting, when is the next update to the market due?


Under continuous disclosure rules anything that could have a material impact on the share price must be released immediately. There are rules and regs but with these releases there are no set dates

Next financial reporting is the half year which is due 21st Feb according to their own timeline.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:34 am

Pcoder wrote:
I think this possible cancellation is more of a qantas change of business strategy, rather than a airbus cleaning books exercise.


Not a change of strategy - just final formal recognition that the A380s haven't been part of the current strategy for a long time now.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:06 am

If they shifted the prepayments to other orders, which they could have done easily as the JQ neos are probably not fully prepaid, they wouldn't be obliged to go to the ASX because there wouldn't be an impact to their financial position.

Qantas is a well run company, no chance they'd have forfeited those payments at this time so not sure why this is being discussed.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:12 am

Anyone who thinks that the deposit will be added to the existing 99 a320neo order name an instance where this has happened before with an airline and manufacturer? (I'm taking about a firm order, not a LOI or anything similar)
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:31 am

Qantas Press Release on draft report from Productivity Commission regarding economic regulation of airports

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ft-report/

Overview of statements from airline lobby group, Qantas and Virgin

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/rep ... -airlines/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:38 am

VA has backed calls for a review of SYD airport caps which was included in the draft report from the Productivity Commission

http://australianaviation.com.au/2019/0 ... rport-cap/
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:59 am

Pcoder wrote:
If the a380 order was officially cancelled, then Qantas would have to inform the stock market as they would lose their deposits.

Which leads me to believe they are probably in final negotiations with airbus about acquiring the A350 or other aircraft as this would allow them to delay a update to the stock market.


Except if the deposits aren't material to QF, it doesn't need to inform the stock market...
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:45 am

Anyone know what lounge NH will use in Perth?
NZ ?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:47 am

waoz1 wrote:
Anyone know what lounge NH will use in Perth?
NZ ?


Most likely as they use NZ at SYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:08 am

VA's new CEO says first priority will be improving culture among the workforce and will reveal his plans for the airline sometime after 25 March

http://australianaviation.com.au/2019/0 ... s-to-fill/
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:33 am

qf789 wrote:
VA's new CEO says first priority will be improving culture among the workforce and will reveal his plans for the airline sometime after 25 March

http://australianaviation.com.au/2019/0 ... s-to-fill/


Which is a real indictment as Virgin Blue was renowned for their culture. That has been totally lost over the past 10 years, and now Virgin Australia don't appear to stand for anything other than not being Qantas, but wrap it up in red and purple to try and cling on to that 'Virgin-ness'. It looks increasingly hollow and fake IMHO.

10 years ago Qantas were a fuddy-duddy old airline with a complacent attitilude born from a lack of domestic competition and an illusion of former grandeur. The hard products were far from class leading, the soft product on-board was lacklustre, the lounges were tired and the staff were disinterested. What a difference a decade makes! There is a palpable energy and enthusiasm at Qantas these days that I have never seen before. The products are being reinvigorated, exciting new routes are being launched, and the staff are (mostly) enthusiastic and clearly proud of their airline.

I've said it before and will continue to say it, I loved Virgin Blue but cannot stand what they have morphed into.
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:27 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
The hard products were far from class leading, the soft product on-board was lacklustre, the lounges were tired and the staff were disinterested. What a difference a decade makes!.


I'd argue that still mostly describes Qantas today. Sure a few planes, lounges and staff are up there.. but in general it has issues.

It's just that the same applies to Virgin these days.

I think Borghetti had little option to go upmarket as Jetstar and subsequently Tiger came into the market with lower cost bases.

It's just that they squandered the new upmarket image and lower cost base.

In my mind Virgin made a few strategic missteps over the period.
- not joining an alliance when they had a chance (this is a massive advantage Qantas has to attract customers, and the hodge podge of alliances doesn't work)
- creating the 'international' structure that allowed foreign shareholding to go above 50% to its current 90% and dysfunctional shareholdings
- chasing market share domestically which caused big drops in profit on both sides, but ultimately required the shareholders loans and conversions
- not further expanding International (though the lack of profit made this hard)
- poor aircraft choices (Embraers)

But it's also just growing pains (same as JetBlue in the US is going through).
With a young vibe and new young employees and lots of growth everyone's happy and prepared to trade off wages for 'culture' but as everyone gets older this changes and employees want better wages (and in JetBlues case unions) etc
 
brucetiki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:18 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf789 wrote:
VA's new CEO says first priority will be improving culture among the workforce and will reveal his plans for the airline sometime after 25 March

http://australianaviation.com.au/2019/0 ... s-to-fill/


Which is a real indictment as Virgin Blue was renowned for their culture. That has been totally lost over the past 10 years, and now Virgin Australia don't appear to stand for anything other than not being Qantas, but wrap it up in red and purple to try and cling on to that 'Virgin-ness'. It looks increasingly hollow and fake IMHO.

10 years ago Qantas were a fuddy-duddy old airline with a complacent attitilude born from a lack of domestic competition and an illusion of former grandeur. The hard products were far from class leading, the soft product on-board was lacklustre, the lounges were tired and the staff were disinterested. What a difference a decade makes! There is a palpable energy and enthusiasm at Qantas these days that I have never seen before. The products are being reinvigorated, exciting new routes are being launched, and the staff are (mostly) enthusiastic and clearly proud of their airline.

I've said it before and will continue to say it, I loved Virgin Blue but cannot stand what they have morphed into.


Staff conduct at VA needs a big kick up the backside, and hopefully the new CEO provides the kick most of their staff need.

Currently VA staff do all they can to avoid passenger interaction. They hide in the galleys during boarding, and God help you if you dare show them your boarding pass (oh God, they actually have to do their job and greet passengers). You then get the privilege of being treated like a nuisance for the duration of your flight as a protein ball is hurled at you, and you're reluctantly offered an extremely limited range of drinks on flights (water, juice, or tea and coffee - and of course tea and coffee leave the menu if you hit turbulence). If you're lucky you'll get one of the sealed hospital-style cups of juice. If you're unlucky, you get a small cup of juice. Then there's the pre-landing Nazi run, where you must prove to the cabin crew your seat is in the upright position (despite the fact you haven't reclined the seat at all during the flight). Upon disembarkation, the customary thank you to the cabin crew (again, hiding in the galley), might get you an annoyed grunt in response.

It's not much better in business class - where you might get a half-arsed meal, if you're lucky. Seriously, how hard is it to cater appropriately for 8 high paying passengers (where, again, serving passengers is seen as an imposition by the crew).

Then there's the hard product. The ex-DJ aircraft stand out like the proverbial, with the tired looking interiors, that not even the red and purple seat backs can hide. Sure, the outside looks nice and fresh, but it's a whole different story inside.

Compare that to QF - warm greeting by staff, a decent snack (at worst), or a fairly decent meal (at best), and a wide range of drinks (including soft drinks) available. If you have a particularly nice crew on board, they'll slip you a second drink too. Service is efficient, but the crew engage in a little chit chat with passengers.

And the hard product - even if you do have an older plane, it still feels fresh.

Even the customer service from the crew on JQ is much more personable than VA. JQ happily address passengers by name - even during the service. On my last flight, the passenger next to me was personally greeted by name and advised of their spending credit as part of their bundle package. I then bought a couple of items from the menu, but asked for a receipt. The crew then addressed me by name, and passed me an iPad to enter my e-mail address for the receipt.

The fact that I got more personable treatment on a JQ flight than I did on a business class VA flight says it all really.

Now it was only a few years ago Pam Ann's parody of Qantas was scarily accurate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLEcid15gks&t=24s. Since then, they've improved out of sight with cabin refreshes, improved snacks, better crew engagement etc. You're even seeing that culture filter down to Jetstar. These days that parody could easily be applied to VA. There is hope for VA, and if the CEO can pull the staff into line, then that'll be a good start. We'll see what happens.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:09 pm

brucetiki wrote:

Currently VA staff do all they can to avoid passenger interaction.


I wasn't going to mention it originally, but I cannot remember the last time I saw someone at VA smile. It has been a long time since I have interacted with a crew member who didn't appear to hate their job. The flight attendants are a miserable bunch and the ground staff are flat out rude (I'm talking about VA staffed stations like SYD and BNE, not Swissport staff). You are made to feel that you are inconveniencing them by being on that plane.
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