barney captain wrote:Look for the MAX to make an appearance OAK-HNL on the 16th. OGG will follow immediately afterwards.
Looking like a 800NG today's flight.
Flyguy
Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
barney captain wrote:Look for the MAX to make an appearance OAK-HNL on the 16th. OGG will follow immediately afterwards.
wnflyguy wrote:WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.
Flyguy
tphuang wrote:so now that we've had several articles come out proclaiming that WN might get approved next week, I took a look at possible effect of WN entrance into HI market. Keep in mind, all of the numbers I'm posting is based on 2017Q3 to 2018Q3 data from BTS.
Keep in mind, there was very little capacity growth from mainland US to HI in 2016 and move of 2017. That was very good news for HA, as it had a banner year in 2017. That story changed in the past year as UA boosted its capacity and so did HA with the introduction of A321NEO. For example, this article showed that capacity to HI increased 12% in May of 2018, mostly on the other islands. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/3807 ... uring-may/
Also keep in mind that HI tourism was affected last year by the volcano.
The numbers below does not include any flight to KOA since it crashed after the volcano incident. I looked at every airline out of west coast but focused mostly on the numbers of HA, AS and UA since they are most likely affected by any WN entrance.
First of all, LA Basin. It had about 5.6% extra capacity in Q3 of 2018 vs 2017 with 8.3% more flights. LF increased from 86.9% to 88.7%. UA increased by close to 5%. The biggest increase came from HA, which had the new daily flight on HNL-LGB + half daily flight more on LAX-OGG. It had close to 13% more capacity. AS had 4.5% more capacity due to switching from the high CAM ex-VX A320 to lower CASM B737.
The results were total yield dropping by 11.5%. UA dropped by 7.8%. HA dropped by 12.2%. AS dropped by 17.6%. In some case like HA and AS, the drop was partially due to using more lower CASM/RASM aircraft. But there were also some effect from the a general tougher fare environment to HI in 2018.
Secondly, to bay area. Here, there was basically no extra capacity YoY. The only addition was AS on SFO-KOA, which I did not include in my result and had terrible numbers. There were no other new routes. Other than that, HA capacity dropped a little bit due to late deliveries of A321NEO, while UA flights increased a little bit to make up for the drop in HA capacity.
The results were total yield dropping by 10%. UA dropped by 13.5%. HA dropped by 8%. AS dropped by 6.2%. Not surprisingly, UA additions led to the most drop in yield.
Next one is SAN. The major change this year was the entrance of HA into SAN-OGG market, which had huge effect on the pricing environment out of SAN. Capacity increased by 25% YoY, # of flights increased by 25% and LF dropped from 90.5% to 86.7%.
The results were total yield dropping by 14.2%. Both AS and HA dropped by about that much.
Next one is SMF. There was no major change here. Capacity dropped 1% and LF was up slightly. The results were yield dropping 5%, which was shared between AS and HA.
Final I looked at was PDX (even though WN is unlikely to enter here), because there was addition of HA on PDX-OGG. The capacity was up 18% and the number of flight was up 26%. The LF dropped from 89.5% to 82.6%. The overall yield was down 15.5%. HA's yield was down 18.6% and AS's yield was down 12.5%.
From looking at this, I think it's fair to say that overall fare environment was down 5 to 10% when factoring out capacity increases. Maybe that's caused by general domestic fare environment. Maybe it's due to the volcano. Or maybe it's due to nationwide increases in capacity. After that, there was another 5 to 10% drop in yield depending on the amount of additional capacity.
I think SAN/PDX is most to be studied here, since they saw 5 to 10% bigger drop in yield due to one additional daily HA flight (which caused 18 to 25% jump in capacity).
Now if we are to apply to each market that WN is going to enter.
Out of SAN, if WN even enters 2 out of 3 islands (not factoring in KOA). That would cause 35 to 40% more capacity there. Which could cause yield dropping another 15 to 25% from SAN to HI. If it enters all 3, then that would be over 50% more capacity in there market.
Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH. So the capacity is already going up 50% if we assume they use narrowbody aircraft in both cases. And if WN enters with daily SMF-HNL also, we could see 80% more capacity. Currently, SMF is the highest yielding of the west coast markets i looked at. By the end of this summer, SMF will be the lowest yielding. I wouldn't be surprised for yield to drop from over $300 to close to $200.
Out of OAK/SJC, there is a lot more capacity here to absorb increases. If WN was to add 6 daily flights out of OAK/SJC to HI, it will have close to AS's current market share. There will probably be about 20 to 25% more capacity if we factor in additions by UA and HA also. More importantly, OAK/SJC-LIH are likely to be no longer monopolies, which would cause those 2 market to collapse in yield.
LA Basin is likely going to be the least affected by WN entrance, since it's the largest market. But even that, we are seeing aggressive price matching by existing players anticipating WN effect.
So I think the end product of this is significantly worse result for HA by the end of the year. It might even start to loose money again. AS will also be quite affected since it's monopolies at SAN/SMF/OAK/SJC are most likely to no longer be monopolies.
wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:so now that we've had several articles come out proclaiming that WN might get approved next week, I took a look at possible effect of WN entrance into HI market. Keep in mind, all of the numbers I'm posting is based on 2017Q3 to 2018Q3 data from BTS.
Keep in mind, there was very little capacity growth from mainland US to HI in 2016 and move of 2017. That was very good news for HA, as it had a banner year in 2017. That story changed in the past year as UA boosted its capacity and so did HA with the introduction of A321NEO. For example, this article showed that capacity to HI increased 12% in May of 2018, mostly on the other islands. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/3807 ... uring-may/
Also keep in mind that HI tourism was affected last year by the volcano.
The numbers below does not include any flight to KOA since it crashed after the volcano incident. I looked at every airline out of west coast but focused mostly on the numbers of HA, AS and UA since they are most likely affected by any WN entrance.
First of all, LA Basin. It had about 5.6% extra capacity in Q3 of 2018 vs 2017 with 8.3% more flights. LF increased from 86.9% to 88.7%. UA increased by close to 5%. The biggest increase came from HA, which had the new daily flight on HNL-LGB + half daily flight more on LAX-OGG. It had close to 13% more capacity. AS had 4.5% more capacity due to switching from the high CAM ex-VX A320 to lower CASM B737.
The results were total yield dropping by 11.5%. UA dropped by 7.8%. HA dropped by 12.2%. AS dropped by 17.6%. In some case like HA and AS, the drop was partially due to using more lower CASM/RASM aircraft. But there were also some effect from the a general tougher fare environment to HI in 2018.
Secondly, to bay area. Here, there was basically no extra capacity YoY. The only addition was AS on SFO-KOA, which I did not include in my result and had terrible numbers. There were no other new routes. Other than that, HA capacity dropped a little bit due to late deliveries of A321NEO, while UA flights increased a little bit to make up for the drop in HA capacity.
The results were total yield dropping by 10%. UA dropped by 13.5%. HA dropped by 8%. AS dropped by 6.2%. Not surprisingly, UA additions led to the most drop in yield.
Next one is SAN. The major change this year was the entrance of HA into SAN-OGG market, which had huge effect on the pricing environment out of SAN. Capacity increased by 25% YoY, # of flights increased by 25% and LF dropped from 90.5% to 86.7%.
The results were total yield dropping by 14.2%. Both AS and HA dropped by about that much.
Next one is SMF. There was no major change here. Capacity dropped 1% and LF was up slightly. The results were yield dropping 5%, which was shared between AS and HA.
Final I looked at was PDX (even though WN is unlikely to enter here), because there was addition of HA on PDX-OGG. The capacity was up 18% and the number of flight was up 26%. The LF dropped from 89.5% to 82.6%. The overall yield was down 15.5%. HA's yield was down 18.6% and AS's yield was down 12.5%.
From looking at this, I think it's fair to say that overall fare environment was down 5 to 10% when factoring out capacity increases. Maybe that's caused by general domestic fare environment. Maybe it's due to the volcano. Or maybe it's due to nationwide increases in capacity. After that, there was another 5 to 10% drop in yield depending on the amount of additional capacity.
I think SAN/PDX is most to be studied here, since they saw 5 to 10% bigger drop in yield due to one additional daily HA flight (which caused 18 to 25% jump in capacity).
Now if we are to apply to each market that WN is going to enter.
Out of SAN, if WN even enters 2 out of 3 islands (not factoring in KOA). That would cause 35 to 40% more capacity there. Which could cause yield dropping another 15 to 25% from SAN to HI. If it enters all 3, then that would be over 50% more capacity in there market.
Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH. So the capacity is already going up 50% if we assume they use narrowbody aircraft in both cases. And if WN enters with daily SMF-HNL also, we could see 80% more capacity. Currently, SMF is the highest yielding of the west coast markets i looked at. By the end of this summer, SMF will be the lowest yielding. I wouldn't be surprised for yield to drop from over $300 to close to $200.
Out of OAK/SJC, there is a lot more capacity here to absorb increases. If WN was to add 6 daily flights out of OAK/SJC to HI, it will have close to AS's current market share. There will probably be about 20 to 25% more capacity if we factor in additions by UA and HA also. More importantly, OAK/SJC-LIH are likely to be no longer monopolies, which would cause those 2 market to collapse in yield.
LA Basin is likely going to be the least affected by WN entrance, since it's the largest market. But even that, we are seeing aggressive price matching by existing players anticipating WN effect.
So I think the end product of this is significantly worse result for HA by the end of the year. It might even start to loose money again. AS will also be quite affected since it's monopolies at SAN/SMF/OAK/SJC are most likely to no longer be monopolies.
Thanks for the information.
I see WN coming in and trashing yields to inter California levels which gives WN the ability to gain some market share especially with it's west coast frequent flyer sales base.
I don't see WN running anyone else out of the game.
But once WN starts limited inter island flying HA will feel the most cost pressure from WN.
Flyguy
RWA380 wrote:[list=][/list]wnflyguy wrote:WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.
Flyguy
Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.
mcdu wrote:RWA380 wrote:[list=][/list]wnflyguy wrote:WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.
Flyguy
Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.
It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.
n562wn wrote:mcdu wrote:RWA380 wrote:[list=][/list]
Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.
It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.
Good grief. Are you really that daft? That is practically the definition of 'trivia'... information that lacks importance.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
mcdu wrote:n562wn wrote:mcdu wrote:
It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.
Good grief. Are you really that daft? That is practically the definition of 'trivia'... information that lacks importance.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It is Trvial instead of trivia. It is of absolutely no significance. It would be like knowing the date an aircraft had the lavs dumped for the first time.
Please help us as a civilization if this BS is a pub night quiz question.
tomaheath wrote:Are there any photos of the aircraft at OGG or ITO?
wnflyguy wrote:So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.
For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.
If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.
Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.
Flyguy
wnflyguy wrote:So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.
For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.
If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.
Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.
Flyguy
tphuang wrote:Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH.
osupoke07 wrote:wnflyguy wrote:So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.
For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.
If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.
Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.
Flyguy
I do remember as I was booked to go to Hawaii via Southwest/ATA in summer 2008. Southwest was extremely accommodating when ATA went under.
n562wn wrote:Your hatred is noted.
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mcdu, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.
Display this post.
mcdu wrote:osupoke07 wrote:wnflyguy wrote:So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.
For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.
If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.
Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.
Flyguy
I do remember as I was booked to go to Hawaii via Southwest/ATA in summer 2008. Southwest was extremely accommodating when ATA went under.
How did they get you to and from Hawaii?
SANFan wrote:tphuang wrote:Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH.
I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.
bb
wnflyguy wrote:So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)
This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.
The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.
Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.
WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.
Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.
Fingers crossed
Flyguy
tphuang wrote:SANFan wrote:tphuang wrote:Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH.
I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.
bb
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.wnflyguy wrote:So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)
This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.
The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.
Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.
WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.
Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.
Fingers crossed
Flyguy
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
SWADawg wrote:I thought it was supposed to be a 38M? Still shows a 738. Oh well.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:SANFan wrote:I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.
bb
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.wnflyguy wrote:So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)
This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.
The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.
Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.
WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.
Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.
Fingers crossed
Flyguy
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:SANFan wrote:I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.
bb
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.wnflyguy wrote:So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)
This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.
The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.
Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.
WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.
Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.
Fingers crossed
Flyguy
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:SANFan wrote:I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.
bb
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.wnflyguy wrote:So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)
This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.
The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.
Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.
WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.
Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.
Fingers crossed
Flyguy
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
hoya wrote:wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
They want to burn money by flying to ITO? Even UA can't maintain daily service to LAX in off-peak periods - it was 3x weekly in Jan, and I think it's back to 5x weekly now.
Separately, does WN have any 738s with the Short-field Performance Package? If not, how many held seats can we expect on any 738 flights out of OGG? LIH? Or will OGG and LIH be MAX8 markets?
wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:SANFan wrote:I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.
bb
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.wnflyguy wrote:So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)
This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.
The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.
Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.
WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.
Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.
Fingers crossed
Flyguy
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
seven3seven wrote:I predict inter island flights begin in April at the very latest. Anyone wanna bet?
tphuang wrote:wnflyguy wrote:tphuang wrote:Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.
For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.
It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
While we are at it. I will make my predictions to for the 4 cities they talked about.
I think inter island flights will be short lived. I can't see that lasting too long.
To start off,
OAK-HNL/OGG
SJC-HNL
SAN-HNL/OGG
SMF-HNL
And after a few month
OAK-LIH/KOA
SMF-LIH
SAN-KOA
SJC-OGG
If they are entering LAX, then
LAX-HNL/OGG
I can't see SMF having much more.
To put things in perspective. SMF is already getting 50% more capacity this year. I can't see SMF-OGG supporting 3 carriers or SMF-KOA supporting 2 carriers. It's possible they will stop SMF at just HNL. Even with that, SMF is going to see some carriers dropping out soon enough.
I'd imagine AS would pull out of OAK to HI pretty soon. They just can't compete with the connections WN has at OAK. OAK is already their weakest HI routes.
SAN/SJC will be interesting to see. 3 additional daily flights at SAN from WN next year will be probably 40% additional capacity. And that's if we assume HA doesn't enter more SAN markets. SJC is a more fluid market. Since OAK is the primary station, they might start off conservatively at SJC.
AirFiero wrote:tphuang wrote:wnflyguy wrote:
GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL
MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.
JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.
September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.
November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.
2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.
Flyguy
While we are at it. I will make my predictions to for the 4 cities they talked about.
I think inter island flights will be short lived. I can't see that lasting too long.
To start off,
OAK-HNL/OGG
SJC-HNL
SAN-HNL/OGG
SMF-HNL
And after a few month
OAK-LIH/KOA
SMF-LIH
SAN-KOA
SJC-OGG
If they are entering LAX, then
LAX-HNL/OGG
I can't see SMF having much more.
To put things in perspective. SMF is already getting 50% more capacity this year. I can't see SMF-OGG supporting 3 carriers or SMF-KOA supporting 2 carriers. It's possible they will stop SMF at just HNL. Even with that, SMF is going to see some carriers dropping out soon enough.
I'd imagine AS would pull out of OAK to HI pretty soon. They just can't compete with the connections WN has at OAK. OAK is already their weakest HI routes.
SAN/SJC will be interesting to see. 3 additional daily flights at SAN from WN next year will be probably 40% additional capacity. And that's if we assume HA doesn't enter more SAN markets. SJC is a more fluid market. Since OAK is the primary station, they might start off conservatively at SJC.
Wouldn’t a possible key to success with all this new capacity be through and connecting flights to CONUS cities without direct flights to Hawaiian destinations? Or in the case of WN, getting passengers from other airlines who would otherwise prefer WN but now can fly WN? The Southwest effect, in a way?
wnflyguy wrote:LIH 23:00.........................
OGG 23:30......................
KOA 23:40 ......................
OAK 23:50......................
My guesses Flyguy
barney captain wrote:No redeyes. Expect mid-morning departures from CA, with mid-afternoon returns from HI. OAK may see an additional departure later in the day. It's what the CA tourist market dictates.
FA9295 wrote:wnflyguy wrote:LIH 23:00.........................
OGG 23:30......................
KOA 23:40 ......................
OAK 23:50......................
My guesses Flyguy
So if I'm reading these one's right that you guessed, would they be red-eye flights? Southwest currently doesn't have any red-eye flights at all...
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