Dominion301
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Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:00 pm

This thread is to carry-on the discussion about passenger statistics at Canadian airport throughout 2019.

Here's the link to the 2018 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1392475&start=150

The first airport that I can find that has already reported stats for January 2019 is....

YOW - Ottawa

Jan-18 / Jan-19 / % Change
Dom: 278,662 / 272,963 / -2.0% - The decline can almost entirely be attributed to WS reducing YOW-YEG to seasonal*
TB: 66,302 / 66,581 / +0.4% - Not bad considering WS' cancellation of YOW-FLL and YOW-TPA
Int'l: 56,900 / 63,838 / +12.2% - Not surprisingly the only segment with added capacity is the one that grew
TTL 401,864 / 403,382 / +0.4%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2017
Dom: 3,996,510 / -0.1%
TB: 721,049 / + <0.1%
Int'l: 394,760 / +1.8%
TTL: 5,112,319 / + <0.1%

*6x weekly 73G (which is what YOW-YEG operated at last winter) at 80% LF almost exactly matches the loss in domestic passenger traffic.

I fully expect YOW to be like this in 2019 until Flair enters the marketplace, which will probably be in late May 2019.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:06 pm

I just don't understand YOW, how can it be in decline as our nation's capital, surrounded by huge population centres and have only slightly more traffic overall than YHZ? Glad to see international up otherwise the overall decline would have higher.
 
DrewFOC
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:25 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
I just don't understand YOW, how can it be in decline as our nation's capital, surrounded by huge population centres and have only slightly more traffic overall than YHZ? Glad to see international up otherwise the overall decline would have higher.

Ottawa isn't a large city, and it's fairly close to Montréal, which is a much larger city with a corresponding larger airport, so there goes some of the demand for Ottawa. There's also not that much business or tourism relative to Toronto or Montreal. I think it's reasonable that YOW doesn't have a comprehensive network or large passenger numbers.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:45 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
I just don't understand YOW, how can it be in decline as our nation's capital, surrounded by huge population centres and have only slightly more traffic overall than YHZ? Glad to see international up otherwise the overall decline would have higher.


Well overall YOW didn't actually decline in January 2019. By sector:
-Domestic was down (thanks to WS cuts and 4N's YOW-YZF-YXY service ended in early January and is now only operating summer seasonally and around holiday periods...4N are blaming massive YZF fee increases for the reduction in service);
-Transborder, was up but was essentially flat (again thanks to WS cuts being negated by CRJ increases on DL to LGA and AA to PHL); and
-International was up (thanks to no WS or AC cuts and gains on TS and WG respectively vs 2018).

Given WS' lackluster financials for 2018 they pulled YOW-YEG for the winter (along with all YUL transcons except a single daily YYC), in order to negate the massive "high-yielding" (ROFL) capacity increases they've chosen to fly on Swoop out of YHM, where there's apparently demand for 11x weekly YHM-YEG. I'm not sure how you can be taken seriously in East-Central Canada as a true "full service" alternative to AC when you don't fly YOW-YVR, YOW-YEG, YUL-YVR, YUL-YEG and YUL-YWG year-round. Similarly in almost all of Eastern Canada (including YHZ) they cut flying to Florida, including cutting all YUL service to again keep capacity increases in check while simultaneously massively increasing transborder service via Swoop at YHM.

It's tough to grow your traffic when capacity is removed.

YOW suffered from a lack of hardly any new capacity from 2012 to 2017. 2018 was the first time that YOW saw any meaningful capacity additions in years. It's no coincidence that YOW's best year since 2012 was when there actually was new capacity added to the marketplace. YHZ did handle 800k fewer pax in 2018. It's a bit of a gap and YOW did hit a bit of a milestone in 2018 by surpassing the 5 million mark.

DrewFOC wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
I just don't understand YOW, how can it be in decline as our nation's capital, surrounded by huge population centres and have only slightly more traffic overall than YHZ? Glad to see international up otherwise the overall decline would have higher.

Ottawa isn't a large city, and it's fairly close to Montréal, which is a much larger city with a corresponding larger airport, so there goes some of the demand for Ottawa. There's also not that much business or tourism relative to Toronto or Montreal. I think it's reasonable that YOW doesn't have a comprehensive network or large passenger numbers.


It's large by Canadian standards at about 1.4 million, which is about 3 times the size of Halifax, but like you said when you're squeezed between the two largest metro areas in the country, 1.4 million does seem small, even if it's in the same ballpark as Calgary and Edmonton. Again, while not attracting the same number of tourists as Toronto or Montreal, the Capital region still attracts over 8 million visitors a year. However, most of those are of the driving type or they're of the fly into YYZ or YUL variety and then hop on a tour bus to see Ottawa.

YHZ benefits from it's isolation from any other major population centres - no domestic city > 200k population within 1,000km driving distance is certainly helpful to YHZ's pax numbers, while YOW is squeezed between the two biggest metro areas in the country. It's easy to be overlooked when you're in the shadow of those two. That isolation also means it's a regional hub for Atlantic Canada. YHZ's gotta be at least 25% connecting traffic whereas YOW is more like 5% and is by far the least connected major airport in the Country.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:56 pm

Thanks so much Dominion301, great explanation, totally makes sense now.
 
westaust
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:34 pm

To add to Dominion301 excellent post, driving from Ottawa's center to YUL is about 2h drive, in comparison, flight time is 45-50min + mct of 40 min at YUL for dom/intl flights, that means it's only 30 min faster flying if everything goes according to plan (probably even more since you could time your drive better with departing flight schedule rather than a longer connection) that means many people choose to drive from Ottawa to YUL to catch a flight especially for intl or tb
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:11 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
Thanks so much Dominion301, great explanation, totally makes sense now.


Thanks to you and westaust for the compliments.

Keep those pax stats rolling in, in 2019. I've gotta admit I'm a bit of a pax stats junkie. :P

Out of curiosity ACCS300, do you have any idea as to why YHZ do not publish pax stats on a monthly or quarterly basis? Other than YTZ (which are essentially maxed out at around 2.8-2.9 million pax per annum), they're the only large airport in Canada to not do so. A long time ago, someone showed me YHZ's monthly stats one year (guessing 2004 or 2005). YHZ's June-August traffic would spike by about 50% vs some other months. That level of seasonality explains why YHZ has so much summer seasonal transatlantic service, yet only 4x weekly LHR winter service.

Maybe some day, someone will figure out that what has been done in summer to Europe out of YHZ could easily be replicated at YOW...again so hard to do when you're overshadowed by YUL and YYZ and it seems like YOW's air service development is lacklustre at best. Having said that, I fully expect YOW will be part of Flair's February 13th announcement.
Last edited by Dominion301 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smallmj
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:24 pm

If YOW wants to replicate the YHZ TATL summer spike, then they need to import an ocean.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:12 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
...again so hard to do when you're overshadowed by YUL and YYZ...

I can definitely relate to what you are saying.

Until just a few years ago, we stuck from YUL to connect in YYZ for most destinations - and often backtracking. (It was logical for AC as they wanted to achieve critical mass in Toronto before expending secondary hubs...)

And as you said, domestic traffic is relatively weak around here as it's so easy to just drive Boston, New York or Toronto.

Calgary or Halifax on the other hand...
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:23 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
Thanks so much Dominion301, great explanation, totally makes sense now.


Thanks to you and westaust for the compliments.

Keep those pax stats rolling in, in 2019. I've gotta admit I'm a bit of a pax stats junkie. :P

Out of curiosity ACCS300, do you have any idea as to why YHZ do not publish pax stats on a monthly or quarterly basis? Other than YTZ (which are essentially maxed out at around 2.8-2.9 million pax per annum), they're the only large airport in Canada to not do so. A long time ago, someone showed me YHZ's monthly stats one year (guessing 2004 or 2005). YHZ's June-August traffic would spike by about 50% vs some other months. That level of seasonality explains why YHZ has so much summer seasonal transatlantic service, yet only 4x weekly LHR winter service.


Absolutely no idea. YHZ is my hometown but I live near YVR now, follow YHZ closely though but no clue as to the way they publish their stats. Yes, the summer spike is impressive and suspect will continue with the introduction of more narrowbodies crossing the pond from YHZ.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:29 pm

Given all the highly paid public sector workers in YOW with 6 or more weeks of annual vacation I'm surprised that their O&D traffic isn't far higher. I suspect there is more to the low statistics than driving to Montreal. The only people that would drive to Montreal would be for overseas and maybe Florida flights. The international sector is the only one that is doing relatively well at YOW. How would the domestic/trans-border demand problems be attributed to being between YYZ and YUL? People don't drive to YUL to go to New York or Halifax and so on. Is there a cultural/economic issue that explains the problem? I've brought this issue up in the past but it's always the same answer that I think is only in small part the reason.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:25 am

Skywatcher wrote:
Given all the highly paid public sector workers in YOW with 6 or more weeks of annual vacation I'm surprised that their O&D traffic isn't far higher. I suspect there is more to the low statistics than driving to Montreal. The only people that would drive to Montreal would be for overseas and maybe Florida flights. The international sector is the only one that is doing relatively well at YOW. How would the domestic/trans-border demand problems be attributed to being between YYZ and YUL? People don't drive to YUL to go to New York or Halifax and so on. Is there a cultural/economic issue that explains the problem? I've brought this issue up in the past but it's always the same answer that I think is only in small part the reason.


Definitely most of the driving, busing, training leakage to YUL is to overseas destinations, but also some to southern destinations. It is huge though. For example, if the AF/KL buses only operate at a very low 50% LF, that alone is 60k pax leaked to YUL before adding anything else.

I’d hardly call 1 good international month booming as YOW is still about 60k international pax below the 2012 peak. The only reason why that is the case is lack of capacity. YOW never had more transatlantic destinations (LHR, LGW on 2 airlines, CDG, GLA and AC’s then brand-new FRA flight) than when Zoom was around and ditto for sun destination capacity. That’s never been replaced...to date.

Domestic surpassed the 4 million mark in 2018 and has been the only sector where moderate growth occurred from 2015 to 2017, while transborder recouped a good chunk of prior year capacity losses. However, that too is 50k pax below its peak, again not due to lack of demand, but lack of capacity. In other words, if transborder and international had remained stagnant since their peaks, the airport would be at around 5.3 million in 2018 instead of 5.1. It’s tough to grow a market segment, when there aren’t enough seats on offer in a marketplace to do so. I guess we’ll see what Flair does on Wednesday.
 
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bballah
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Re: Canadian Airports 2019 statistics

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:45 pm

No new route announcements from Flair today, only the promise of "future growth" as they released their new livery.

[url]westernaviationnews.com/2019/02/13/flair-airlines-gets-a-makeover/[/url]

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