UA857
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Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:52 pm

Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK? Should Delta add ATL-PEK to strengthen it's China network?
 
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STT757
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:56 pm

Because DTW.
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Scarebus34
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:58 pm

If it was profitable, they would fly it.
 
ncflyer
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 7:04 pm

With all due respect I’ve never understood the point of these threads. If Delta felt they could make money on it they would fly it. What more is there to say. Based on prices to China— which are often rock bottom—and the stage length of the flight, I’d ask the opposite question, why is there so much seat capacity from the USA to China. I paid $550 round trip to get to China in coach spring break of 2018– from PIT. My home airport of CLE was $800 also a bargain.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 7:07 pm

Well, just to elaborate a hair on the first response, DTW is the designated eastern gateway to North Asia, and is it better positioned to do so profitably.
ATL adds an extra 500nm to the flight distance, which is serious time and cost, particularly as you consider the substantial back track required of connecting passengers.
The cost aspect of that extra distance is important as the major eastern US markets have all kinds of lower cost base options to PEK.

If DL makes DTW-PEK long term profitable (not a given), adding routes to PEK (or DAX?) would continue to make more sense from a northern/western city, and not ATL - my opinion.
 
x1234
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 7:39 pm

Which reminds me, how is ATL-PVG doing on DL!? I find it weird that the recent flights on DL185 west-bound have been crossing the Pacific instead of polar making the flight longer.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 7:41 pm

ncflyer wrote:
With all due respect I’ve never understood the point of these threads. If Delta felt they could make money on it they would fly it. What more is there to say. Based on prices to China— which are often rock bottom—and the stage length of the flight, I’d ask the opposite question, why is there so much seat capacity from the USA to China. I paid $550 round trip to get to China in coach spring break of 2018– from PIT. My home airport of CLE was $800 also a bargain.


I totally agree with you. It’s like the threads, “Should XX start ABC-XYZ?” My thought is usually, “Now why didn’t they think of that?”

However, these can be valid discussion topics if you take them one step deeper. I agree with the OP in that at first blush it would seem like such a route would work. I’ve also never understood why airports like SJC or SNA leak so much traffic to the bigger airports given their huge affluent population and business bases. Or why doesn’t LGB work well? Or why doesn’t LGW attract higher yield business travel, etc?

If we framed these questions a bit deeper as to what are the factors that make such a route not viable, then it would be an interesting meaningful thread.
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 7:49 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:

I totally agree with you. It’s like the threads, “Should XX start ABC-XYZ?” My thought is usually, “Now why didn’t they think of that?”


Because markets are not always completely efficient.
 
klm617
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 8:22 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
With all due respect I’ve never understood the point of these threads. If Delta felt they could make money on it they would fly it. What more is there to say. Based on prices to China— which are often rock bottom—and the stage length of the flight, I’d ask the opposite question, why is there so much seat capacity from the USA to China. I paid $550 round trip to get to China in coach spring break of 2018– from PIT. My home airport of CLE was $800 also a bargain.


I totally agree with you. It’s like the threads, “Should XX start ABC-XYZ?” My thought is usually, “Now why didn’t they think of that?”

However, these can be valid discussion topics if you take them one step deeper. I agree with the OP in that at first blush it would seem like such a route would work. I’ve also never understood why airports like SJC or SNA leak so much traffic to the bigger airports given their huge affluent population and business bases. Or why doesn’t LGB work well? Or why doesn’t LGW attract higher yield business travel, etc?

If we framed these questions a bit deeper as to what are the factors that make such a route not viable, then it would be an interesting meaningful thread.


I think we are at a place in commercial aviation at least in the USA where the carriers now can manipulate the traffic patterns anyway they want due to the lack of any real competition. Back in the 80's you had no less than 10 carriers fighting for market share now you have 3 so they can create the rules in the market place verse the customers and that's why certain markets go unserved . Perhaps if Delta wasn't so strong in the ATL market you might have a Chinese carrier come in and fly ATL-PEK but they know they don't have a chance in that market. But on the strength of the Delta hub ATL has a lot of nonstop service it could not sustain on O/D alone.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
gunnerman
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 8:45 pm

DL cannot just fly to PEK from ATL; it has no authority to do so as routes between the US and China are highly regulated.

In any case DL is more interested in Shanghai. ATL-PVG was restarted in July 2018 and DL has filed with the DOT an application to fly a daily MSP-PVG using the A359 from June 2020 in the expectation of getting feed from partners China Eastern and Shanghai Airlines.
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Sun May 19, 2019 10:09 pm

Here is your easiest answer: they can't. Route authority to fly into PVG and PEK are one and the same. When AA pulled out of ORD-PEK, that would free up a spot for PEK or PVG. DL put in their request for MSP-PVG. PVG is more of business traveler heavy destination than PEK.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:21 am

I'll put aside whether DL "can" or "can't" fly the route. They could have asked for route authority if DL really wish to fly the route.

Quite frankly, the demand is not there at all. No matter which way you put it, Chinese routes still depend on VFR traffic in the back to fill the plane up. Atlanta itself doesn't have that much O&D to China.

You can ask, "What about connection? Everything goes through Atlanta after all". But tell me which city in Southeastern US has that much O&D demand to China? The answer is none (Ok, maybe Washington DC if you count that as "Southeastern US", but there's IAD-PEK on CA and UA already). Geography-wise, DTW is a much better hub as a TPAC gateway, as most of US doesn't have to backtrack down south and east to ATL.

Lastly, even ATL-PVG is a hit or miss. This is the third time that DL is trying the route, and quite frankly, I've absolutely no clue how good it's even doing. The route has a giant MU hub at PVG that can feed the entire PRC also.

At the end of the day, ATL-China just doesn't have the demand. Even DTW-China is a relic of Northwest day and probably not as profitable as one would put it, either.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:31 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll put aside whether DL "can" or "can't" fly the route. They could have asked for route authority if DL really wish to fly the route.

Quite frankly, the demand is not there at all. No matter which way you put it, Chinese routes still depend on VFR traffic in the back to fill the plane up. Atlanta itself doesn't have that much O&D to China.

You can ask, "What about connection? Everything goes through Atlanta after all". But tell me which city in Southeastern US has that much O&D demand to China? The answer is none (Ok, maybe Washington DC if you count that as "Southeastern US", but there's IAD-PEK on CA and UA already). Geography-wise, DTW is a much better hub as a TPAC gateway, as most of US doesn't have to backtrack down south and east to ATL.

Lastly, even ATL-PVG is a hit or miss. This is the third time that DL is trying the route, and quite frankly, I've absolutely no clue how good it's even doing. The route has a giant MU hub at PVG that can feed the entire PRC also.

At the end of the day, ATL-China just doesn't have the demand. Even DTW-China is a relic of Northwest day and probably not as profitable as one would put it, either.


DTW-China is actually pretty large. Much more so than ATL. But PVG is the primary demand source not PEK.
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x1234
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:47 am

If China Eastern were smart they'd start PVG-IAD with their A350. Its a route missing from Washington's route map.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:53 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
DTW-China is actually pretty large. Much more so than ATL. But PVG is the primary demand source not PEK.


True...when SAIC-GM is right there to fill up those seat.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 261
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 4:53 am

ATL-PVG roundtrip load factor 2018 Jul-Nov (US BTS)

Month Average of L/F
7 0.83529731
8 0.918849059
9 0.832078194
10 0.890320606
11 0.874853972

FYI.
 
Lufthansa
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 5:55 am

I think you need to look at how traffic flows. The likes of DTW and SEA can easily be fed by American traffic. ATL on the other hand would need to be fed significantly by latin traffic. But there's a little problem called a transit visa for the USA. Now couple that with the fact China will require a visa
for basically every latin country.... it's too much hassle for the PAX. Especially when you look at their other options from AC, to the ME3, to to CA via Europe all taking similar times. DL's ATL customers will just go to DTW. A better question is why don't they do it from JFK?
 
n2dru
Posts: 126
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 6:00 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll put aside whether DL "can" or "can't" fly the route. They could have asked for route authority if DL really wish to fly the route.

Quite frankly, the demand is not there at all. No matter which way you put it, Chinese routes still depend on VFR traffic in the back to fill the plane up. Atlanta itself doesn't have that much O&D to China.

You can ask, "What about connection? Everything goes through Atlanta after all". But tell me which city in Southeastern US has that much O&D demand to China? The answer is none (Ok, maybe Washington DC if you count that as "Southeastern US", but there's IAD-PEK on CA and UA already). Geography-wise, DTW is a much better hub as a TPAC gateway, as most of US doesn't have to backtrack down south and east to ATL.

Lastly, even ATL-PVG is a hit or miss. This is the third time that DL is trying the route, and quite frankly, I've absolutely no clue how good it's even doing. The route has a giant MU hub at PVG that can feed the entire PRC also.

At the end of the day, ATL-China just doesn't have the demand. Even DTW-China is a relic of Northwest day and probably not as profitable as one would put it, either.


DTW-China is actually pretty large. Much more so than ATL. But PVG is the primary demand source not PEK.


As a whole isn't Detroit's main source of o&d to China or Asia for that matter tied to the auto industry? Isn't the main reason DTW is a hub to Asia for DL besides being NW's former Asian hub is because of its location and the auto industry ties to certain Asian cities? Not because of Detriot's ethnic Asian population? Detroit doesn't seem like a magnet for Asian immigration.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 10:57 am

n2dru wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
I'll put aside whether DL "can" or "can't" fly the route. They could have asked for route authority if DL really wish to fly the route.

Quite frankly, the demand is not there at all. No matter which way you put it, Chinese routes still depend on VFR traffic in the back to fill the plane up. Atlanta itself doesn't have that much O&D to China.

You can ask, "What about connection? Everything goes through Atlanta after all". But tell me which city in Southeastern US has that much O&D demand to China? The answer is none (Ok, maybe Washington DC if you count that as "Southeastern US", but there's IAD-PEK on CA and UA already). Geography-wise, DTW is a much better hub as a TPAC gateway, as most of US doesn't have to backtrack down south and east to ATL.

Lastly, even ATL-PVG is a hit or miss. This is the third time that DL is trying the route, and quite frankly, I've absolutely no clue how good it's even doing. The route has a giant MU hub at PVG that can feed the entire PRC also.

At the end of the day, ATL-China just doesn't have the demand. Even DTW-China is a relic of Northwest day and probably not as profitable as one would put it, either.


DTW-China is actually pretty large. Much more so than ATL. But PVG is the primary demand source not PEK.


As a whole isn't Detroit's main source of o&d to China or Asia for that matter tied to the auto industry? Isn't the main reason DTW is a hub to Asia for DL besides being NW's former Asian hub is because of its location and the auto industry ties to certain Asian cities? Not because of Detriot's ethnic Asian population? Detroit doesn't seem like a magnet for Asian immigration.


Why would you not think that Detroit is a magnet for Asia immigration. No that is not the reason for Delta's Asian operation the auto traffic is just the icing on the cake. Detroit is actually like many have said is the best geographic location to field connections from east of the Mississippi to Asia. Detroit id also best located to field European connections from 80% of the United States as well.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5603
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:14 pm

klm617 wrote:
n2dru wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

DTW-China is actually pretty large. Much more so than ATL. But PVG is the primary demand source not PEK.


As a whole isn't Detroit's main source of o&d to China or Asia for that matter tied to the auto industry? Isn't the main reason DTW is a hub to Asia for DL besides being NW's former Asian hub is because of its location and the auto industry ties to certain Asian cities? Not because of Detriot's ethnic Asian population? Detroit doesn't seem like a magnet for Asian immigration.


Why would you not think that Detroit is a magnet for Asia immigration. No that is not the reason for Delta's Asian operation the auto traffic is just the icing on the cake. Detroit is actually like many have said is the best geographic location to field connections from east of the Mississippi to Asia. Detroit id also best located to field European connections from 80% of the United States as well.


Honestly it depends on the part of Asia youre talking about. If were talking East and Southeast Asia, Detroit isnt a magnet for Asian immigration. Detroit does get a very healthy amount of immigration from South Asia (specifically India and Bangladesh) and of course Detroit is a huge magnet for immigration from West Asia.

In 2017, these were the below recipients of the largest number of Asian immigrants:

Immigrants from Asia (all over 5k listed):
1. NYC: 62,240
2. Los Angeles: 43,693
3. San Francisco: 20,798
4. Washington DC: 16,625
5. Houston: 14,287
6. Chicago: 14,136
7. Dallas: 14,108
8. San Jose: 13,590
9. Seattle: 11,384
10. Atlanta: 8,947
11. Boston: 8,742
12. Sacramento: 8,703
13. Philadelphia: 8,632
14. Detroit: 8,020
15. San Diego: 7,595
16. Riverside: 5,590

When broken down further, Detroit's largest Asian immigrant groups were as follows. Ive compared them to Atlanta. I listed all over 100 immigrants by country within any part of Asia:

Detroit:
Iraq: 1,527
Yemen: 1,268
India: 991
Bangladesh: 966
Lebanon: 840
Syria: 658
China: 383
Pakistan: 343
Jordan: 330
Philippines: 301
Vietnam: 226
Korea: 215

Atlanta:
India: 1,948
Vietnam: 1,139
Korea: 1,044
China: 925
Burma: 596
Bangladesh: 423
Pakistan: 386
Iran: 339
Afghanistan: 288
Nepal: 268
Philippines: 250
Malaysia: 202
Bhtan: 181
Iraq: 166
Thailand: 126

To be fair, I wouldnt call Atlanta a magnet for East Asia either outside Vietnam and Korea.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:41 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Honestly it depends on the part of Asia youre talking about. If were talking East and Southeast Asia, Detroit isnt a magnet for Asian immigration. Detroit does get a very healthy amount of immigration from South Asia (specifically India and Bangladesh) and of course Detroit is a huge magnet for immigration from West Asia.

In 2017, these were the below recipients of the largest number of Asian immigrants:

Immigrants from Asia (all over 5k listed):
1. NYC: 62,240
2. Los Angeles: 43,693
3. San Francisco: 20,798
4. Washington DC: 16,625
5. Houston: 14,287
6. Chicago: 14,136
7. Dallas: 14,108
8. San Jose: 13,590
9. Seattle: 11,384
10. Atlanta: 8,947
11. Boston: 8,742
12. Sacramento: 8,703
13. Philadelphia: 8,632
14. Detroit: 8,020
15. San Diego: 7,595
16. Riverside: 5,590

When broken down further, Detroit's largest Asian immigrant groups were as follows. Ive compared them to Atlanta. I listed all over 100 immigrants by country within any part of Asia:

Detroit:
Iraq: 1,527
Yemen: 1,268
India: 991
Bangladesh: 966
Lebanon: 840
Syria: 658
China: 383
Pakistan: 343
Jordan: 330
Philippines: 301
Vietnam: 226
Korea: 215

Atlanta:
India: 1,948
Vietnam: 1,139
Korea: 1,044
China: 925
Burma: 596
Bangladesh: 423
Pakistan: 386
Iran: 339
Afghanistan: 288
Nepal: 268
Philippines: 250
Malaysia: 202
Bhtan: 181
Iraq: 166
Thailand: 126

To be fair, I wouldnt call Atlanta a magnet for East Asia either outside Vietnam and Korea.


I guess this is just for 2017? And is the number base on city limit (Which would put the number for Atlanta down as most of the East Asian, mainly Korean population, are out in Gwinnett County) or metro area (i.e. Metropolitan Statistical Area, hence the separation between SF and San Jose, LA and Riverside, etc.)?

But yes, the Korean population in Atlanta is pretty large. In the south it's either Atlanta or DFW (with a smaller group in Houston), and not surprisingly, KE flies to both city for a long time. There is a decent size Chinese population there, but definitely smaller than DFW or Houston.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5603
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Why doesn't Delta fly ATL-PEK?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:52 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Honestly it depends on the part of Asia youre talking about. If were talking East and Southeast Asia, Detroit isnt a magnet for Asian immigration. Detroit does get a very healthy amount of immigration from South Asia (specifically India and Bangladesh) and of course Detroit is a huge magnet for immigration from West Asia.

In 2017, these were the below recipients of the largest number of Asian immigrants:

Immigrants from Asia (all over 5k listed):
1. NYC: 62,240
2. Los Angeles: 43,693
3. San Francisco: 20,798
4. Washington DC: 16,625
5. Houston: 14,287
6. Chicago: 14,136
7. Dallas: 14,108
8. San Jose: 13,590
9. Seattle: 11,384
10. Atlanta: 8,947
11. Boston: 8,742
12. Sacramento: 8,703
13. Philadelphia: 8,632
14. Detroit: 8,020
15. San Diego: 7,595
16. Riverside: 5,590

When broken down further, Detroit's largest Asian immigrant groups were as follows. Ive compared them to Atlanta. I listed all over 100 immigrants by country within any part of Asia:

Detroit:
Iraq: 1,527
Yemen: 1,268
India: 991
Bangladesh: 966
Lebanon: 840
Syria: 658
China: 383
Pakistan: 343
Jordan: 330
Philippines: 301
Vietnam: 226
Korea: 215

Atlanta:
India: 1,948
Vietnam: 1,139
Korea: 1,044
China: 925
Burma: 596
Bangladesh: 423
Pakistan: 386
Iran: 339
Afghanistan: 288
Nepal: 268
Philippines: 250
Malaysia: 202
Bhtan: 181
Iraq: 166
Thailand: 126

To be fair, I wouldnt call Atlanta a magnet for East Asia either outside Vietnam and Korea.


I guess this is just for 2017? And is the number base on city limit (Which would put the number for Atlanta down as most of the East Asian, mainly Korean population, are out in Gwinnett County) or metro area (i.e. Metropolitan Statistical Area, hence the separation between SF and San Jose, LA and Riverside, etc.)?

But yes, the Korean population in Atlanta is pretty large. In the south it's either Atlanta or DFW (with a smaller group in Houston), and not surprisingly, KE flies to both city for a long time. There is a decent size Chinese population there, but definitely smaller than DFW or Houston.


It is just for 2017 but includes the entire Atlanta and Detroit metro areas.
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