LOT is still looking on the EMB170/195 (though I don´t know the exact versions) and the FD728/928. I´ve nothing about numbers, delivery dates etc. This is what I´ve posted about this subject in a nother group, it might give a good impression about the selection process:
LOT´s choice will very much depend on these
1) Delivery date
3) Pax comfort level
4) Family concept
5) Alliance influence
The earlier the delivery date the more chances the EMBs have as first delivery for them starts in 2002/2003, depending on the flight test schedule. After 2003 the FDs become a real option. For immediate
delivery only the CRJ700 is available.
The longer the required range the more likely the FDs. The current FD728-200 figures are WITHOUT the Super Sharks TM which are likely to improve figures by another 5% - and the FDs still beat the EMBs with
winglets. Is a performance issue, depends very much on the airline how they approach this issue.
Pax comfort level: if LOT wants to offer a 2-2 C Class the only option are the FDs, the Embraers have a 2-2 Y Class layout, the FDs a 2-3 Y-Class - at the same seat and aisle width. Again, depends on the market LOT is targeting with these birds; CSA decided in favour of
the FDs, Malev in favour of the CRJs. SAS is still pending as is Finnair. No trend visible.
Family concept: again it depends. The EMB170 will for sure be certified for LCY - but that airport isn´t an issue for LOT, thus this argument becomes obsolete. The FDs have the advantage that it can be streched further (1128 project, possible B737-300/500 replacement) while the EMB195 is the absolute maximum possible IMO, otherwise they get really nasty take-off and emergency exit probelems.
Alliance influence: LOT still has to decide which alliance will be joined. Joining STAR would more or less mean a slight edge for the FDs due to LH´s order and the maintenance already established, joining oneworld is a factor pro Embraer as LX will establish a large maintenance center. SIMs will be available in acceptable numbers, LH is already building one or two in their Flight Training center in Berlin.
Concerning TechSupport FD has clearly the lead due to the much shorter distance between production facillity in OP and Warsaw.
I´ve no idea when the order will be placed, a good guess is Farnborough, otherwise Dubai or Paris next year when they want a publicity stunt. I assume they are waiting until the FD728 has been in the air for at least two months and HARD evidence is available
concerning the important figures like fuel burn etc.
A longer post but maybe give a good view on the topic. Questions are welcome!
@ SetJet: Eventually the ~10 A330-200s will be used to replace the A340-200s which are on their way to South-Africa, then the A310-300 follows, all medium/intercont-routes. In 2003 there will be trials with the A330 on A300 routes to see if it is a valid replacement, later an add-on order is possible. As it looks the A300 will stay a bit longer. The B757-300 never worked out, turn-around times were too long.
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