cobra27
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Next Big Order?

Mon Apr 01, 2002 10:45 pm

When?
What is going on with Eastjet, Iberia, Lufthansa, That, ANA ....
 
manni
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RE: Next Big Order?

Mon Apr 01, 2002 11:26 pm

China Airlines, possibly a dozen A330 aircraft.
Lufthansa, expect an order during the aviation fair in Berlin for the A330.
Thai, will most likely announce this month that they will order up to 11 widebody aircraft. The A340-500 being the favorite here.
Iberia, also to order a dozen or so A340-600 aircraft.
Virgin Blue, might convert their fleet to an all Airbus fleet or order some additional 737-800 aircraft instead.
Atlas air, in finals to order 5 A380 aircraft.
KLM, will most likely tell the world in may wether they buy 20 Airbus A330s, 20 777-200s or a mix of both types.
Easyjet, either Airbus or Boeing, as many as 75 aircraft might be ordered.
...
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Flying-Tiger
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RE: Next Big Order?

Mon Apr 01, 2002 11:31 pm

... add to this all the pending decisions in the regional market:

* Air France for 40 frames
* British Airways/Qantas for 30+30 frames
* LOT
* Finnair
* Alitalia
* VASP
* Jazz
* Indian Airlines
....

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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PW100
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:33 am

Flying-Tiger
How about KLM [KLM uk, KLM city]?

PW100
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Flying-Tiger
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:38 am

I have - for now - excluded them. It seems that KLM Cityhopper has signed a LoI for 30 FD728-200 but this has never been confirmed. I have not included them in the list above because I have NO new info about this plus - from what I´ve heard - there might be a merger of KLM Cityhopper and KLM UK or at least some moves around those companies in the near future regarding the structure. If anyone has some news abot this I would welcome him or her to post them.

If I should guess: 30 FD728-200 from for KLM Cityhopper, 15 FD928-100 for KLM UK plus 25 options for both companies. But this is pure speculation from my site.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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9V-SVE
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:40 am

How about KLM for a couple 777s?

GRRR............That stupid rule!
 
JAL
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:44 am

Maybe Emirates will finalize a deal for more 777 it announces late last year.
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Scorpio
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:45 am

9V-SVE,

That's no longer a pending order, it has been placed and announced a couple of days ago (8 777-200ER)
 
Sabena 690
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:46 am

@Flying-Tiger:
I heard something too about a possible merger between KLM UK and KLM Cityhopper.

Let's wait and see...

Regards,
Sabena 690
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 6:04 am

Have just heard that the Lufthansa A330 order to replace the A340-200s is coming closer. Likely be for ~10 frames, LHT is supposed to be already organizing maintenance procedures for the birds. It is assumed that all A330s will initially be based in FRA. Source is a German aviation forum.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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chrisa330
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 6:29 am

Air Canada is expected to announce new aircraft soon as detailed in this newspaper article from early March. While these would be leases, they are still new aircraft. It sounded like they would be mean't for additional capacity not replacement of old aircraft. Any ideas? Perhaps more B763's or A330 ?

http://makeashorterlink.com/?G29700B7
 
deltairlines
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 6:40 am

I would not be surprised if Delta announced something at Farnborough this year. They have said they should be back in the black ink by the end of the year. They will need a few more 777s and possibly some more 737NGs, so I wouldn't be surprised if Delta placed an order. Same would be true for Continental, especially with the overall US Economy rising again.

Jeff
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 6:44 am

I think Singapore Airlines could order some Boeing 747XQLRs / ERs for fleet replacement purposes.

I see little need for more 777s.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
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PW100
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 6:49 am

From the rumor-side, you can also include 10-20 330s for KLM, but then also include 10-20 additional 777s. KLM will announce more details in May...

PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
dutchjet
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 7:35 am

Although things are looking a bit better in the airline world, I would not expect too many large orders to be announced in the short-term future. Airlines are still playing "wait and see" with respect to traffic and must increase yeilds....pax are returning to the air but are still paying bargain fares. Business traffic, where the airline make most of their money, is still rather weak. Many airlines still have "deferred orders" and "rescheduled" orders to work out with Boeing and Airbus, and others still have many aircraft parked that can easily be returned to service.

From the US, there will be very few orders for non-regional aircraft until the airlines have a few good quarters and can get their balance sheets in order. CO has many aircraft on order, but has rescheduled their delivery, UA has major losses to contend with, US has their own problems, etc. Maybe, just maybe, DL will add some 777s, Southwest could convert some 737NG options, and Alaska could add more 737NGs but nothing major. AA is still sorting out its needs with the TWA fleet and NW is about to begin its DC10 replacement program with A330s and 753s,and, no, they are not yet ready to replace the DC9-30s.

European and Pacific airlines may take this opportunity to order planes at very sharp prices; we saw KLM do it this week with the 777/744F and in May they will announce the second part of that order: a mix of more 777s and the A332, KLM leaked this news to the press to put even more pressure on Airbus and Boeing. Iberia is likely to announce an A346 order as a 747Classic replacement unless Boeing somehow can convince Iberia that the 777 is a better idea. LH is looking closely at the A332, they still dont have a big long-range twin, and the A332 could replace the A342 and possibly the remainng A310s; LH still is looking for a suitable A300 replacement. The low-fare airlines may or may not order more aircraft, a lot depends on finances and everyone is afraid of overexpansion, so if they order, I do not think it will be major orders.

The Mid-east/Gulf carriers have lots of orders on the books. What Air India may do is a big question; for years they have stated that they plan to order many new airplanes to expand and to replace their 747 Classics and A300/A310s.......maybe this will be the year and it could go either way in any mix of models.

Thai has delayed a MD11/743 replacement order and they may announce something.....and they are looking for a ultra-long range plane; the usual choice - 777 or A340 family members. As Thai operates both the A330 and 777, it could go either way, although there are lots of Thai A340-500 rumors flying around lately (but last year there were 777 rumors). MAS has put off any fleet replacement programs, the Japenese airlines need their economy to recover a bit (a JAL 747 Classic replacement order is huge piece of business) and most of the other airlines are already set with orders on the books. Qantas is likely to order more 738s for its domestic operation and to begin its 733/734 replacement program in the near future. Air New Zealand would love to order some new aircraft, but its finances will not allow it for the moment.

Just my thoughts. I HOPE that I am wrong and conditions improve so that Airbus and Boeing can make many announcements in the future!

 
manni
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 8:02 am

Many large orders are already announced post 9/11. There was the huge order from Emirates for additional A380 aircraft. Lufthansa and Air France both announced orders for the A380 after 9/11. Virgin Atlantic confirmed their order for 10 A340-600 aircraft. Swiss ordered 13 A340 aircraft. Qatar ordered an additional two A380 aircraft. SAA bought 34 aircraft from Airbus and this week, both the Indian Air Force and Indian Airlines signed up for Airbus aircraft and finnally KLM ordered 8 777-200 and 3 747-400F aircraft.
That all does not look like wait and see to me. Then again, those airlines who wanted to order might have done it now.
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Jaws707
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Flying-Tiger?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 8:12 am

In an earlier post in this thread from you I read that LOT is considering new regional jets. Right now I believe they operate some ERJ-145. Do you know what kind they are looking at and how many? Thanks
 
dutchjet
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 8:12 am

Hello Manni, your reports are of course correct.....my analysis is only a little different than yours since I did not take the A380 into account as orders for that aircraft are planning for the longer-term future; the A380 is still a few years away.

This Swiss order (which shocked me) is a replacement for the cancelled Swissair A346 order and the Virgin A346 deal was reconfirmed, as you correctly put it, but really nothing new. The KLM order was also something that has been talked about for ever, but finally became a reality this week (almost an anti-climax).

The most interesting thing about airlines is you never know what will happen.......maybe we will be happily surprised.
 
Setjet
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 12:27 pm

Talking about the Lufthansa A330 order:

If the order gets through, will they be used on domestic flights (FRA-TXL, FRA-MUC, ect) or more likely on european routes (FRA-BRU, FRA-LHR) or are they only intended for low-density intercontinental routes (Lagos, Abidjan, ect.)?

Will they eventually phase out the A340-200 for the newer A330?

What was the result of the Lufthansa's 757-200 (actually: Condor) domestic "experiment"?

Any informations?

 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 6:22 pm

@ Jaws707

LOT is still looking on the EMB170/195 (though I don´t know the exact versions) and the FD728/928. I´ve nothing about numbers, delivery dates etc. This is what I´ve posted about this subject in a nother group, it might give a good impression about the selection process:


LOT´s choice will very much depend on these
factors:

1) Delivery date
2) Mission
3) Pax comfort level
4) Family concept
5) Alliance influence

The earlier the delivery date the more chances the EMBs have as first delivery for them starts in 2002/2003, depending on the flight test schedule. After 2003 the FDs become a real option. For immediate
delivery only the CRJ700 is available.

The longer the required range the more likely the FDs. The current FD728-200 figures are WITHOUT the Super Sharks TM which are likely to improve figures by another 5% - and the FDs still beat the EMBs with
winglets. Is a performance issue, depends very much on the airline how they approach this issue.

Pax comfort level: if LOT wants to offer a 2-2 C Class the only option are the FDs, the Embraers have a 2-2 Y Class layout, the FDs a 2-3 Y-Class - at the same seat and aisle width. Again, depends on the market LOT is targeting with these birds; CSA decided in favour of
the FDs, Malev in favour of the CRJs. SAS is still pending as is Finnair. No trend visible.

Family concept: again it depends. The EMB170 will for sure be certified for LCY - but that airport isn´t an issue for LOT, thus this argument becomes obsolete. The FDs have the advantage that it can be streched further (1128 project, possible B737-300/500 replacement) while the EMB195 is the absolute maximum possible IMO, otherwise they get really nasty take-off and emergency exit probelems.

Alliance influence: LOT still has to decide which alliance will be joined. Joining STAR would more or less mean a slight edge for the FDs due to LH´s order and the maintenance already established, joining oneworld is a factor pro Embraer as LX will establish a large maintenance center. SIMs will be available in acceptable numbers, LH is already building one or two in their Flight Training center in Berlin.

Concerning TechSupport FD has clearly the lead due to the much shorter distance between production facillity in OP and Warsaw.

I´ve no idea when the order will be placed, a good guess is Farnborough, otherwise Dubai or Paris next year when they want a publicity stunt. I assume they are waiting until the FD728 has been in the air for at least two months and HARD evidence is available
concerning the important figures like fuel burn etc.

A longer post but maybe give a good view on the topic. Questions are welcome!
******************************************
@ SetJet: Eventually the ~10 A330-200s will be used to replace the A340-200s which are on their way to South-Africa, then the A310-300 follows, all medium/intercont-routes. In 2003 there will be trials with the A330 on A300 routes to see if it is a valid replacement, later an add-on order is possible. As it looks the A300 will stay a bit longer. The B757-300 never worked out, turn-around times were too long.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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na
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RE: Next Big Order?

Tue Apr 02, 2002 8:16 pm

- A 747-400 Freighter-order for Lufthansa is possible, maybe in the form of the XQLR. LH was short of ordering some 744Fs before 911 and the 742F-fleet isn´t getting any younger (half of the LH freighters are about 20 years old, not really old for a 747 freighter, but very old by LH standards).
- 747 XQLRs for SIA
- A340-600s for Iberia (decision possibly not before next year)

- bad for Boeing is that it is very unlikely that we will see another sizable order for 777s for years to come. Iberia is the very last major airline about to order a new big jet type soon and they´ll most likely go for the Airbus alternative. Almost all possible 777 orders in the next years will only be modest fleet additions or small orders by minor airlines like the recent ones from Kenia or Vietnam.

- as a frequent flyer on LHs A300 routes its a mystery to me why the airline has obviously problems to find a replacement for their oldest member in the fleet. A lot of other airlines found the A330 to be perfect for this role. The LH A300s are mostly filled to capacity (and therefore not too nice to fly with) so choosing a slightly bigger aircraft would be logical to me. Last year I´ve been on a A340-300 for the 30 min. FRA-MUC route. What a difference to the rattling old A300!
 
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DaV
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RE: Next Big Order?

Wed Apr 03, 2002 1:48 am

AZ sooner or later will need both Md82 (still 70+ in service) and B763er/Md11 replacement.. I see a big Airbus order for up to 50 (or more) A32X, and some A332 (the soon-to-be-sold charter division Eurofly is going to get them soon). If AZ is still around in a year or so...

Rgds

DaV
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Jaws707
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Flying-Tiger

Wed Apr 03, 2002 2:57 am

Just wanted to say thanks for getting back on the LOT post. I found it very interesting and it seems like they have a though choice. Before I thought they would go with the Embraer because they already have the ERJ-145, but FD might make the 1128 which LOT could use to replace the 737's because they have been struggling filling many planes. Thanks again and I guess stay tuned.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Next Big Order?

Wed Apr 03, 2002 7:18 am

Actually I´ve only out-lined very basic requirements which apply to most orders. Many factors are coming into play, in a very very limited number of orders the result is clear from the very start - and these are political orders.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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ILOVEA340
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RE: Next Big Order?

Wed Apr 03, 2002 10:22 am

swiss is ordering 13 A340-300 aircraft from airbus.