Ndebele
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Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 5:25 am

Up to now, Ryanair has never been involved in a crash. But with the size of Ryanair's fleet, it's just a matter of time until a Ryanair flight crashs, at least it's very likely that there might be a Ryanair accident one day.

What do you think will happen to Ryanair when they lose an aircraft, with many people killed in that crash? I'm sure the newspapers will be full of headlines and articles saying that Ryanair as a low-cost airline wanted to save money and didn't do any maintenance, etc. No matter who would be responsable for the crash, I'm sure the media will make Ryanair's low-cost structure responsable for the crash.

I think a fatal accident (no matter who's fault it will be) might even make Ryanair collapse - one of the reasons why I don't have any Ryanair stocks.
What do you think will happen to Ryanair if they have a crash with many people killed?
 
777236ER
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 5:26 am

If RyanAir had a crash, then everyone would Go Easyjet.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
donder10
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 5:30 am

Jokes aside,I suspect the tabloids will hint at Ryanairs low fares leading to sub-standard maintenance etc.
 
Arsenal@LHR
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 5:30 am

I wouldn't say a crash would make ryanair collapse, it would have a severe effect though. The media will speculate on all sorts of crap that are blatantly false only to make good reading for the public. Low cost carriers have just as stringent safety procedures as the big airlines, they go though the same maintenance inspections just like scheduled major airlines.

Arsenal@LHR
In Arsene we trust!!
 
teahan
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 5:33 am

Hello,

I certainly wouldn't say that a fatal accident is only a matter of time. Look at all the airlines with large fleets (including Southwest) who have never had a crash.

If a crash was to happen, I presume it would have severe consequences especially with the British tabloids (we all know what BS they would come up with) However with Ryanair now spreading its wings further than the the UK and Ireland (Continental focus-cities), I presume the impact of a crash would be slightly reduced.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
BlatantEcho
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 5:46 am

No offense, but what kind of topic is this? Honestly, unless there is any kind of reason to suspect sub-standard MX on Ryanair's part, this post is pure libel.

God forbid any airline looses a plane, yet it is never a death sentence. AA lost 3 planes in just a few horrific months, they are working towards, and working damn hard it seems to get back on their feet.

This isn't even morbib in light of todays events, it just seems ridiculous.

BlatantEcho
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Ndebele
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 6:07 am

@BlatantEcho: No, there in NO kind of reason to suspect "sub-standard MX" on Ryanair. If you read my post, you will see that it's not about Ryanair's maintenance, it's more about possible headlines in the newspapers, "NO MATTER WHO'S FAULT IT WILL BE".

>>"...in light of todays events" Today's events surely influenced me when I started this topic. When we heard in the radio about the Egypt Air crash in Tunesia, the first thing we thought was that there might be a terroristic background that caused the crash. We were wrong. But it will just be the same in case of a Ryanair (or GO, Buzz, Easyjet, ...) crash: We (and more importantly: the media) will see a low-cost airline and suspect that it might have been caused by bad maintenance. That's what this topic was supposed to be about.
 
Guest

RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 6:29 am

I was once on the monorail thing at STN going from the terminal to the satellite and a Ryanair pilot stood next to me and he stank of alcohol (and BO). It was about 6.00am and I suspect he'd had a few the night before.

If something like this was to cause a crash then I think they would be in big trouble, and rightly so. However if it was mechanical failure then I think the public in the UK would give them a break. BMI had a crash in Kegworth in the 80's and from memory I don't think if affected their image very much.
 
racko
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 6:38 am

I think a crash could cut Ryan's head off.

I remember what happened after the Birgenair crash, nobody flew on the cheap charterairlines for some years and the big charter airlines like condor, ltu, air berlin etc. have a bigger market share than they had before the birgenair case. I think the same would happen to Ryanair, they will lose market share and their huge order and their planned growth will eat them ...

 
jmhLUV2fly
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 8:47 am

I suspect if RyanAir had an accident, the media in Europe would likely do the same thing the media in the U.S. did when ValueJet crashed in the everglades back in May 1996. The media made a mark on ValueJet and the airline was ultimately forced to change its name.
Im not exactly certain how the public precieves the media in Europe but here in the United States, the media is a big influence.
JMH
 
KAUSpilot
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 8:48 am

Saying a crash for ryanair is unavoidable is a bit much.

Remember Southwest has operated the same types as ryanair for 30 years and currently thousands of flights per day without a single fatal accident.
 
roguetrader
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 10:38 am

JmhLuv2fly,

Yes, the media did hurt ValueJet, but all they had to do was change their name - and everything was better again. Also, you forgot to point out that faulty maint. WAS IN FACT the reason why ValueJet lost the plane in Florida. They deserved the reputation they got.

I think a lot of you are just HOPING that Ryanair will suffer if a crash comes. If America's experience in similar situations is any indication, a crash will have little to no long term effect on Ryanair.

I also reject your hypothesis that a crash has to come to Ryanair at some point. Its following Southwest's formula and no one has lost their life on a WN flight in its 30 year history. This despite its high frequency, short hop, discounting style.

People fly based on their pocketbooks, anything less than an unquestionably negligent crash on Ryanair isn't going to stop them from their slow erosion of BA, LH, and eventually AF.

kind regards,

RogueTrader
 
jmhLUV2fly
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 11:27 am

I am a recent hire with AirTran, only been with them for about nine weeks; so I cant say much about AirTran/ValueJet one way or another and weather they were to soley blame for the crash that took place; however, I do have a couple coworkers who have been with the company for over over six years and they will take issue with anyone who accuses ValueJet for having been the sole cause for the crash, ie. maintance etc..
Again, I cant say much cause I truly dont know, but Brian boy, he'll take you on any day, and will probably win the arguement.
JMH
 
SailorOrion
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accid

Wed May 08, 2002 2:58 pm

Is there any reason to suppose that a crash would have another effect on Ryan than it has on any other airline??

SailorOrion
 
Andreas
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Sailor: No, Not A Single Reason...

Wed May 08, 2002 3:09 pm

..but we both know the german press and how they went wild after the Birgenair crash. Now we have those low-budget mudslinging TV channels such as RTL2 who just love to repeat that shit over and over again!!
Except I don't think a crash would kill ryanair, sales would go down a bit, but things like crashes are easily forgotten by people intending to fly, when it comes to low airfares.
Regards
Andreas
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
TriStar500
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 3:51 pm

Interestingly, there have been a few emergencies with Ryanair in recent years, e.g. aborted take-offs, faulty eninges, blown tires etc. - nothing which could not happen to other airlines too - but none of the media here in Germany have responded to this. I mean, with tabloid papers like "BILD" and sh!tty newsmags like on some private TV channels (RTL2 is a very good example), I was wondering how long it would take them to come up with some bullcrap like "Ryanair - the lingering death-trap" and so on.
But maybe the media got de-sensitized by their own TV shows... everything non-fatal just flies below their scope.

Homer: Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!
 
Elchanan
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BlatantEcho

Wed May 08, 2002 3:57 pm

BlatantEcho...

"God forbid any airline looses a plane, yet it is never a death sentence. AA lost 3 planes in just a few horrific months, they are working towards, and working damn hard it seems to get back on their feet."

Yes - but are there ANY other airlines that could survive this? AA is after all the largest in the world with a lot of capital reserves. I think most other airlines would not survive this. God forbid that anyone should have to go through it ever again.
 
Andreas
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Tristar: Good Point!...

Wed May 08, 2002 3:59 pm

..some sort of de-sensitisation is definitely taking place...even newsclips about RL-murder and executions doesn't get any attention anymore.
As for your title of a potential newsshow on ryanair: get a copy right on that one...you'll make a lot of money *ggg*
Regards
Andreas
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
SAS-A321
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 8:36 pm

I think that some if not many passengers would go for the non-lowcost airlines. People today are very easy to scare and the will put their "tail" between their legs and flee.
It's Scandinavian
 
avion
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 8:43 pm

A crash could never kill Ryanair. U all are forgetting that Ryanair could keep on flying 17 months if they stopped getting money tomorrow. 17 months is enough time to let it wear off, and i dont think that not a single person would fly them after it.

Tom
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Wed May 08, 2002 9:09 pm

Folks,

This is not silly a topic as some people think.

Some of your older folks remember the crash of AA 191 back in 1979, which hurt AA's reputation for some time. It was obvious that even before that fateful ValueJet crash there were many complaints about the sub-par maintainance on the ValueJet planes; it's small wonder why AirTran snapped up ValueJet for a literal song.

Thankfully, AirTran has a far better reputation.  Smile

I am crossing my fingers that Ryanair has good maintainance procedures to keep their planes in top shape.
 
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PW100
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Thu May 09, 2002 1:09 am

I think if a crash would happen with Ryanair within the next 5 years or so, it would be deadly for them. But I guess this applies basically to all relatively new/young airlines, but low cost carriers would be a little more susceptible [sp?] to the tabloids...

Stating that with Ryanairs fleet increasing a crash will be imminent, is quite over the top. As other people have noted, the same was also said for Southwest. But they grew to no less than 370 [!!] 737s in 30 years, and haven't had a single fatality since. I believe the only highly visisble incident they had was the Burbank runway overran into a petrol station...

Aircraft safety levels have dramatically improved, and have reached such a level that even a large fleet airline is unlikely to see imminent crashes. It's all about statistics. However the thing with statistics is, a crash may happend once every one-million flight hours, but that fatal hour may be tomorrow, it may also very well be in 15 years time...

PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
airsicknessbag
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Thu May 09, 2002 1:52 am

The thing is that the German travelling public is very safety conscious. The average German has been brought up virtually chanting the mantra "Lufthansa is the only safe airline in the world" every day. Go figure, if you book a package tour and the tour operator exchanges a German airline for a non-German the customer will be awarded damages.

So, if a new airline (and Ryanair as well as their whole concept is awfully new to the German) suffers any type of irregularity (ideally but not necessarily) involving a high number of dead Germans it will receive the Cain´s mark "unsafe" - it will disappear from the German market.

This has happened in the past, e.g. Spantax, Birgenair.

I´m not in a position to judge whether that blow would be fatal for FR as whole.

Daniel

 
Guest

RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Thu May 09, 2002 2:32 am


I agree with what Airsicknessbag has said. German media would pretty much talk them down I suppose. But probably other media from other countries would just do the same.

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srbmod
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Thu May 09, 2002 3:28 am

After the crash of Valujet 592, a lot more media scrutiny came down on them. The most visible incident they airline had had prior to 592 was the DC-9 that caught fire on the runway at ATL, and after 592, they kept referring to that incident as well. Valujet had a series of aborted takeoffs, mx problems, planes literally coming in on vapors, engine failures, and other problems that caused an audit of the airline and it's mx processes by the FAA. 592 was for the most part blamed on Sabretech, who did some of VJ's heavy mx, with some of the blame placed on the airline due to the fact that the oxygen container (which were off of the MD-80s being readied for service with them) was loaded by Valujet ramp personnel at MIA. Sabretech took much off the blame because they had written on the COMAT manifest that they were "OXY generator, empty", and Valujet was jumped on for allowing HAZMAT on a flight. The FAA even took some of the blame due to its' lack of oversight on Valujet and Sabretech. Valujet surrendered their O.C. when it became apparent that the FAA was fixing to revoke it. Had that crash happened to an airline like American or Delta, the fallout would not have been as bad. The aftermath of 592 was not only the merger with AirTran, but an increased FAA oversight on new-entrant carriers (at least for the first 5 years), Valujet/AirTran improved it's MX program (one of the requirements placed on them for restart) and the crash also gave a black eye to the low-fare airlines that caused several of them to fail. Now if Ryanair were to suffer an accident, the media in Europe may try to do a Valujet redux, and could honestly see the headlines (especially for Rupert Murdoch's rags) lambasting Ryanair and other European low-fare airlines. The introduction of low-fare carriers in Europe gave a new face to independent airlines in Europe. Gone were the small regionals and sometimes sketchy charter airlines that were predominate in Europe. Ryanair and Easyjet have changed the way Europeans travel, and when the unfortunate time comes that they have an accident, one hopes that it will not sound a death knell for them.
 
ryanair
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Fri May 10, 2002 7:02 am

To predict that a certain airline will crash with no idea about the company (I take it you are qualified to make that sort of risk assessment?) is crass and ignorant beyond belief. Ryanair despite the name, maynot be my favourite airline but if you plan going round making posts like that you should get off these boards and stay there.

I don't know of a single case where a big airline has gone under because of a crash. People often quote Pan Am, forgeting the fact they'd made no money in a decade by then and had little cash and way of getting any.

Valujet went under (although the operation survived of course) because of a history of flying high safety (or lack of). Ironically the Miami crash wasn't really their fault and could have happened to any airline.

I don't think too many people would care if a budget airline plane crashed, certainly in terms of Uk/Ireland anyway.
 
Ndebele
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RE: Scenario: What If Ryanair Involved In An Accident?

Fri May 10, 2002 12:02 pm

Once again somebody who reads the topic of a post and writes an answer too fast. Well, let me say it again: It's more about media than about "bad maintenance with low-cost airlines" - I believe in the EU and their strict rules, and I believe that *all* European low-cost airlines have a high maintenance level. But I KNOW what European newspapers will write when there is a crash of any low-cost airline. I'm not only talking about Ryanair, also about the other low-costs, and I don't think it's libel to say that one of those airlines WILL have a crash one day. Based on statistics, we can be *nearly* sure that there will be a low-cost airline crash one day. And I would like to hear the other members' opinion if those newspapers would be able to make an airline go bankrupt because of a bad publicity in the media. That's all I wanted to say, thanks for the attention.