Let's see, even the talk is not going settle down by 30 June, it will only be extended. Allowing other airlines to increase their flight to replace CX,CI, BR & KA is just nonsense. Not bad if it's a joke!
There's one thing you have to realise that today is not 1997, it's 2002. With today's situation, both sides are unlikely to extend the agreement, because the agreement has extended twice now.
HK is getting upset with Taiwan's move (look carefully what Air Taiwan said, it's true), and Taiwan is upset HK is unwelling to approve Taiwan's demand. With both sides having difficulties to reach a deal, it is possible that the talks won't be finished until June 30.
Taiwan's final move is if HK is unwelling to agree what Taiwan wants, and HK's demand is ridiculous, they woldn't mind that CI/BR/CX/KA to halt all the flights to HK. EVA won't get hurt that much, because they have Macau, and only 16 weekly flights to HK.
Also for your information, B772 has replaced the B744 on HKG-TPE, flight 3 times a week
well, SQ's 772 is currently flying HKG-TPE with 3x weekly, but you have to realize that once CX/BR/CI/KA halted HKG-Taiwan flight, they will be asked to increase the flight, perhaps triple daily.
Wow! Do Japan Asia Airways (Part of JAS?) doing a HKG - TPE - HKG route now or will it be a new one for them?
Japan Asia Airways has been flying HKG-TPE for years. JAA is part of JAL.
There's absolutely no way a new pact won't be reached before June 30, as both sides are aware that their respective carriers' most profitable routes will no longer be able to be operated by them.
You have to realize that CX is actually WILLING to lose flights to Taipei. On May 13, when the talks resumed, CX announce that they'll only accept 33 weekly freighter flights, instead of 45.
some people are optimistic about this (I didn't say this is wrong), you just need to know the situation is getting complicated.
I think it would be quite impossible for SQ and TG to operate 13 daily TPE-HKG flights. The SQ HKG-TPE flights are an extension of their SIN-HKG flight and TG's HKG-TPE flights are an extension of their BKK-HKG flights. Would TG and SQ be operating 13 daily BKK/SIN-HKG/TPE flights a day? I think not...
Well, TG/SQ would love to fly HKG-TPE/KHH, but they have to look at their aicraft schedule to see how many flights they can add if both sides airline (TW and HK) halted Taiwan-HKG.
The reason why I only mentioned JAA/TG/SIA is because these are the only 3 airlines I know that has the 5th freedom flying TPE-HKG. Not sure about the others.