BA
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Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:12 am

This is Lufthansa's second summer in Denver. The airline started nonstop flights a year ago in March. Asked at what percentage capacity the Denver flights are booked this summer, Tollar paused before answering. "It's very frightening," she said. "The numbers are about 110 percent right now. We're encouraging people to fly other gateways because we can't carry the demand right now.

I just found this article in the Denver Post which talks about how full Lufthansa's flights out/to Denver are for this coming summer.

The full article is here.
http://www.denverpost.com/framework/0%2C1918%2C36%257E10490%257E626325%2C00.html

Before 9/11, Lufthansa was planning on operating the 747 during the summer season due to the extremely high loads they experienced last summer.

Looking good for Lufthansa. Hopefully these high numbers will help attract Air France.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
carnoc
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:20 am

Wish next time, my elder sister can take a Lufthansa nonstop flight out of Denver...
 
keesje
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:38 am

Perhaps klm should "help" to solve this problem

Daily DEN- AMS/Europe

good idea ?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:40 am

Keesje,

Northwest has Denver on it's "target" list for AMS service when the A330s start rolling in.

I don't think Denver will ever see KLM. It'd be nice as I absolutely love KLM, but it just won't happen.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Arsenal@LHR
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:44 am

If the demand is that high, why doesn't LH just increase capacity i.e. upgrade planes or add more frequency? Or is there some restriction to this?

Arsenal@LHR
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Flying-Tiger
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:49 am

Arsenal: Lufthansa has one big problem: they are short on intercont planes. No A340s available, the reactiveated birds have all headed to Munich as far as I know and even there the initial planned schedule had been somewhat cut to get more destinations on stream, even more A340s will be based there when they come online.

In FRA all B747s are based plus a good couple of A340-200/300s. The A340-600s will take another few months until they roll in and the first duty will be to get rid of the reactivated B747-200s which means that at least the first two A346 can´t be used for expanding service.

Intercon traffic has increased a good deal faster then expected and they are now getting short and shorter with capacity, only narrow-bodies are still parked to date. Maybe another German member can enlight us a bit further.

110% is quite high, even when there are a few seats still available in First and Business. Let´s see, maybe re-activating the last two B747-200s stored in Marana?

Regards
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BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:49 am

Arsenal@LHR,

They last year they were planning on operating the 747 for this summer. However, after 9/11 those plans were canceled. They were probably expecting that flights to Denver would start to do quite poorly.

I think Lufthansa would rather save it's 747s for extremely high priority routes such as Chicago, New York, etc.

British Airways did fly 747s for most of the year to Denver before they were moved to LHR.

Sure miss seeing those birds.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:51 am

There ya go, an expert from Germany explained it for you, Arsenal.  Big grin

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Arsenal@LHR
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 1:56 am

Thanks for that explanation guys,

I was wondering LH could have sent it's A346's to DEN, but obviously they dont arrive in time. Imagine if LH had 767's in it's fleet, they could have complemented their 744's or A340's to DEN or elsewhere.

Rdgs
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 2:03 am

Condor (DE) could do it but I think this is a very unlikelyoption as DE needs their planes, too. LH could do some wet-leases but I doubt that, more likely that they will take up this or that second-hand opportunity or do it by shifting planes within STAR. Problem could be the 6% wet-lease barrier.

Regards
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BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 2:09 am

United operated a seasonal FRA-DEN flight last summer on a 777 and it still wasn't enough to cope with the demands.

It's not coming back this summer however. I guess United doesn't feel that this year is a good time as a result of the 9/11 attacks, although Lufthansa's high loads should show that they can succeed.

They however did hint that the seasonal flight will be back next summer.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 3:54 am

Condor did fly DUS-DEN for a while ago.

I believe it was a scheduled charter for a vacation package or something.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
AFa340-300E
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 4:20 am

Hello,


During the early 1990s, no European airline was present at DIA, but the Dutch charter airline, and Continental Airlines (CO) had dropped its Honolulu (HNL)–DEN–London (LGW) leaving Denver's travelers with the only solution of a first connection before reaching Europe. However, rather than to court many potential operators, the airport authorities were advised to focus on a few key operators which dominate intercontinental gateways that could generate traffic to/from Denver. This would be the start of a domino development, with other airlines then coming one after another as DIA's appeal would increase.

[...]

Besides London, DIA also looked at continental Europe and was expecting Frankfurt - Rhein/Main (FRA) to become its second destination thanks to the Star Alliance partnership between UA and Lufthansa (LH). DIA was hoping both carriers would carry on their strategy to link their respective hubs, possibly with multiple flights a day. LH was therefore heavily courted by DIA and was even proposed US$1 million in advertising incentives if it would launch a flight.

Eventually, LH announced in July 2000 it retained DEN and Phoenix (PHX) as it next US destinations. The service to DEN started on 25 March 2001 with A340-300s. As part of the deal, Lufthansa received US$1 million in marketing incentives, and had its landing fees waived for US$700,000.

LH446 FRA-DEN 13:05 15:35 - Daily
LH447 DEN-FRA 17:35 11:15 - Daily

Source: Air Transport Business


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Best regards,
Alain Mengus
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 4:27 am

When did British Airways start serving PHX?

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
AFa340-300E
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BA @ PHX

Mon May 27, 2002 4:34 am

Hello,

This would require to be confirmed, but my information are that British Airways started a service from LGW to PHX on 01 July 1996.


Best regards,
Alain Mengus
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 6:28 am

Thanks for that.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
JC5280
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 8:53 am

UA's flight from DEN-FRA was dropped due to low yield. LH is struggling with this as well as most of these flights are booked full in economy class with cheapo tickets only. Many of the sales during the last few months account for that. Also, big companies such as Hewlett Packard, which have offices in Denver and Frankfurt, have reduced their travel budgets i.e. where they used to say, go ahead and book a full fare ticket in coach/business on UA/LH, now they must price shop. Ouch for us in the airline industry.

Word around DEN is that the FRA flight will come back next year with a *possibility* of LHR service (I think a 767-300).
 
donder10
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 8:56 am

Word around DEN is that the FRA flight will come back next year with a *possibility* of LHR service (I think a 767-300).
DEN-LHR can't be done non-stop unless Open Skies occurs
 
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 9:20 am

JC5280,

UA's flight from DEN-FRA was dropped due to low yield.

UA's flight was only summer seasonal. That's why it was dropped. The summer season had ended.

As for yields on Lufthansa's flights, they are quite good according to a friend of mine. This summer, yields are also going to be even higher than last summer.

If you want to get a general idea of the yields, go to Lufthansa's website and check out the fares for FRA-DEN and compare them to some other destinations in the US on the same date.

Now this doesn't really state how yields are on a route, but it does give you a general idea.

When you do a search, make sure you have "Economy Best Buy" selected under the class.

Like Donder said, LHR-DEN can't happen until Open Skies is reached OR DEN is added to the Bermuda II.

United has been wanting to fly LHR-DEN on a 777 for quite some long time. They already applied for the rights to fly the route IF Open Skies is reached or Denver is added to the Bermuda II.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Guest

RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 11:07 am

Don't read more into this article than need be...it states that seats in the two premeir cabins are still available...doesn't mean the flights are oversold to 110% capacity.
 
SailorOrion
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 3:57 pm

maybe we'll see a MUC-DEN flight then earlier or later? All MUC-US flight do very well when going to a UA hub (IAD, ORD, SFO, LAX did as well).

SailorOrion
 
keesje
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Mon May 27, 2002 7:36 pm

"I don't think Denver will ever see KLM. It'd be nice as I absolutely love KLM, but it just won't happen."

I think between NWA & KLM it is just a capasity question. They can use a 220 seat 767 upto a 440 seat 743 like this :


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They have anti trust immunity for their joint venture. They could together decide what fits best, sharing all costs & benefits.
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zeus01
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 12:31 am

Do you actually think most of the people booking DEN-FRA flights called LH?? Probably not. Id bet most was done through UA.

I to have heard NW is looking to start A330 service out of DEN, but thats just a wild rumor I heard from a girl whos dad works for NW. KL seems to be giving a lot more of its routes to NW this year than last. I wonder why.
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 12:37 am

JonPaulGeoRngo,

If you check in June, you will see a few days where First and Business are fully booked too.

These days international routes are not filling up very well in the premium cabins as in the past. Businesses are fed up with paying high fares, so these days they are putting them in Economy. This is an issue for almost all transatlantic routes from the US. Not just Denver.

SailorOrion,

United relatively recently started DEN-IAD-MUC. I don't think we'll ever see it non-stop in the near future.

Zeus01,

Only about 10-20% of the plane is reserved for United bookings. That's not much at all.

Northwest does have a "target" list for cities to serve from AMS when the A330s start rolling in. It includes several cities such as PHX and DEN. So it is no rumour. It's on there "target" list, so that does mean they are considering it.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Bicoastal
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 12:42 am

I can't see Air France or Northwest/KLM being as successful as Lufthansa/United, which has the benefit of a huge United hub in Denver. It makes more sense for Air France to fly to Delta's hubs...maybe Salt Lake City. Without hub feed in Denver and a relatively small market in the Denver area, I can't see Northwest/KLM making it at all.
Airliners.net has many forums. It has spell check and search functions. Use them before posting!
 
BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 12:54 am

Bicoastal,

I can't see Air France or Northwest/KLM being as successful as Lufthansa/United, which has the benefit of a huge United hub in Denver. It makes more sense for Air France to fly to Delta's hubs...maybe Salt Lake City. Without hub feed in Denver and a relatively small market in the Denver area, I can't see Northwest/KLM making it at all.

How does BA do it? BA has no feed whatsoever in Denver. It has to rely completely on O&D.

Denver is not a "small" market for one. It's the 18th largest metro in the US. Denver is also one of the main telecom cities in the US as it home to Qwest, Echostar, and several other companies. It's not a Chicago or New York, and will never have more than 5 international routes. But key markets such as Paris, Tokyo, etc. can succeed.

Air France has one of the best international networks from it's Paris hub. Northwest/KLM have one of the best international networks from there Amsterdam hub.

Also Lufthansa's flights to Denver are mostly O&D as only about 10-20% of the plane is reserved for United bookings. This is why somedays when you want to book on the flight through United, you will see it's fully booked, however when you check through Lufthansa, bookings are still available.

Also for ANY international route to succeed, it will need to rely on O&D quite a bit. Transiting passengers is not enough.

Denver is a Tier II market, which means it can support international flights to major European markets with excelent connections (such as FRA, LHR, CDG), and some Asia service.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Bicoastal
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 1:49 am

Hi BA,

How many of the Lufthansa booked passengers transfer to another United flight in Denver? Though the United codeshare seats on the Lufthansa equipment may be sold out, it doesn't mean that those who book through Lufthansa are staying in Denver.

Alliances seem to be for the convenience of the passengers. It makes more sense for Air France to offer choices through Delta's hub in Salt Lake to many other western USA destinations including Denver. If they want to go to Denver they can transfer in Salt Lake.

As for Northwest/KLM, I wonder how many of Northwest's passengers flying to Minneapolis, Detroit or Memphis fly on to Europe? Enough to fill even one plane a day? I doubt it. Northwest/KLM need the feeder traffic from cities like Denver to help fill the planes departing from their hubs.
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BA
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 3:12 am

Bicoastal,

How many of the Lufthansa booked passengers transfer to another United flight in Denver? Though the United codeshare seats on the Lufthansa equipment may be sold out, it doesn't mean that those who book through Lufthansa are staying in Denver.

It's varies during the year. The fact is in order for a international flight to succeed, it needs to rely quite a bit on O&D. Transiting passengers alone are not enough.

250 passengers each day coming from Europe will not all be connecting onto another flight.

During the summer, it's about 70/30. 70% come down in Denver, and the remaining 30% connect onto UA. So about 75 passengers on the Lufthansa flight will be connecting on a UA flight to another destination.

If UA was flying the route, then that would be a totally different story. The flight would be mostly transiting passengers through DEN.

Alliances seem to be for the convenience of the passengers. It makes more sense for Air France to offer choices through Delta's hub in Salt Lake to many other western USA destinations including Denver. If they want to go to Denver they can transfer in Salt Lake.

It's a known fact that in order for an international route to succeed, it needs to have a lot of O&D. It cannot completely rely on transiting passengers. This is why Salt Lake City will not work.

Salt Lake City is half the size of Denver, and just won't be able to support flights to Europe at this time.

Especially since the Delta hub in SLC really isn't huge.

BA and LH have had great success in Denver and the performance has greatly exceeded there expectations. That means something.

As for Northwest/KLM, I wonder how many of Northwest's passengers flying to Minneapolis, Detroit or Memphis fly on to Europe? Enough to fill even one plane a day? I doubt it. Northwest/KLM need the feeder traffic from cities like Denver to help fill the planes departing from their hubs.

AMS is a hub for Northwest. Don't forget that.

That alone is enough to attract passengers. It's not that many people in Denver want to go to Amsterdam. They will fly on Northwest to Amsterdam and connect onto a KLM flight to somewhere else in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East. That alone adds up and will fill up the planes to/from Denver.

I don't think Northwest would operate daily to Denver. I think most probably 3x to 5x a week and maybe daily during the summer.

Like I said, Denver is a Tier II market which means it can support flights to key international markets in Europe and Tokyo in Asia.

London, Amsterdam, Paris, & Frankfurt are all major gateways to the rest of the world. Don't think that all passengers from Denver who fly on Lufthansa want to come down in Frankfurt. That's another plus.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 3:16 am

Don't forget also that British Airways flies to Denver with no feed whatsoever. As a result, the flight is almost completely O&D.

British Airways has been doing very well in Denver, so why not have other European carriers try to get a piece of the pie? Also, British Airways flies to Denver from LGW which doesn't have much feed, yet it is still doing well.

Airlines like Air France and Northwest/KLM will have the added bonus of feed from there hubs. Passengers all over the world fly into CDG and AMS to connect onto the flight to Denver.

So Air France and Northwest/KLM could do even better than British Airways.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
SailorOrion
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 5:39 am

Please do not forget that FRA isn't a small airport, its one of the few critical hubs in world air traffic, and not only a transit point for people from Germany to USA, but passengers from the EU, eastern Europe, Africa the Middle East, India and even southeast Asia connect to the US via FRA.

SailorOrion
 
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 5:50 am

Very well said, SailorOrion.

Basically as long as there is enough feed at one end, the flights will do fine. Denver is a large enough market to support some transatlantic flights with feed on there ends.

Lufthansa has the advantage of having feed from BOTH ends, FRA and DEN. So that is a big plus for Lufthansa.

Air France will have feed from CDG and Northwest will have feed from AMS.

Now, if there was no feed on either end, then obviously the flight will fail in a heartbeat.

However keep in mind that an international route cannot succeed soley on feed. It needs to have O&D aswell. This is why markets such as SLC do not have international service. The O&D there just isn't big enough.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
MAH4546
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 8:58 am

JC5280 is correct. UA experienced paltry yields on DEN-FRA, it has been stated many times. Wether or not the flight returns is yet to be seen, but yields sucked, unlike Lufthansa's.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 9:08 am

UA's seasonal DEN-FRA always got the overbooked passengers on the Lufthansa flight which is why the yields sucked.

Next time UA and LH should both control the overbookings better by NOT overbooking so much, this will increase yields on the UA flight.

From what I have heard from several is the DEN-FRA seasonal will be back next summer.

Regards
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 10:17 am

It is all well and good to argue that SLC cannot handle international traffic because of its relatively small O&D offering (by the way, SLC is not 1/2 the size of Denver but more like 1/3 smaller if that). Unfortunately that belies the fact that several cities both smaller in population than SLC (such as MEM) and roughly equal (CVG) are able to support international service. Why? The hub effect. Neither could realistically hope to offer much international service without it but, with it, they have been able to profitably support international flights. Thus, my point is, don't discount SLC. Obvioulsy, an international flight will not open up tomorrow, but I believe that we will see one sooner rather than later. AF is a perfect example. Although DEN offers greater O&D than does SLC, SLC offers AF far more connecting abilities due to the existence of the DL hub. As a result, AF can use SLC to not only serve that city but also the greater Mountain West region. This is far more difficult for it to do at DEN.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 10:23 am

OA412,

The 2000 United States Government Census showed that the Salt Lake City Metro has a population of 1.33 million people.

The Denver metro had a population of 2.69 million.

Therefore, about half.

Memphis (MEM) has about 1.95 million people, almost 2 million. Cincinnati has roughly 2.3 million people.

One day maybe SLC will recieve international service. But not until it reaches at least 2 million people I would say.

Air France has 3 destinations on its mind to serve in North America at the moment, DEN, DTW, and SEA. According to spokesperson of Denver who I email every now and then, we can expect Air France in Denver in Summer 2003. Hopefully that's true.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 11:19 am

I know what the census says. The census, however, does not take into account a very large portion of the population just south of SLC. That brings SLCs population up from 1.3 million to almost 1.9 million, right in the range of MEM and CVG and roughly the 1/3 of the DEN population that I mentioned in my earlier post.

By the way, you can add PHX to the list of destinations AF is looking into serving in North America. Also, I would not trust your airport's spokesperson all that much. Certainly they no something but they do not work for AF and are thus not privy to the route decisions being made at the airline. Hell, our airport spokesperson has, over the years, claimed that we are just on the verge of a transatlantic flight. That it will be available in the coming year. Last I checked, we still do not have a transatlantic flight here.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 11:25 am

In addition, AF has been looking at FLL-CDG, which, to be entirely honest, has much more potential than DEN-CDG, IMO. However, it is all rumours. We'll see what happens. SEA, DTW, FLL, SLC, DEN, and PHX can and may all happen, but the one known fact is that AF, long haul wise, will be concentrating on Africa, not America, in the near future. I honestly do not see them adding another US destination for at least two years.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 11:33 am

I agree with you there MAH. The US has taken a back seat to AF expansion in Asia and Africa. Frankly, with the demise of SN, SR, and the reduced African presence of LH the time is ripe for AF to swoop in and handle excess demand. From what I have heard and read, AF is now making a killing in Africa.

I have heard you mention their desire to serve FLL-CDG before which I find interesting as no other scheduled European carrier serves the airport at present. I would assume that this would bode quite well for AF as they could handle excess demand at MIA through FLL (or would this flight serve an entirely different market). By the way, I have heard time and again that the runway at FLL is too short to facilitate the take off a fully laden widebody to Europe. Is this correct? I assume that if charters, which of course do not generally carry cargo, can do it, AF can. Anyway, this would be an interesting development as I am sure other airlines would use AFs performance as a guide in deciding whether they too should open their own FLL-Europe flights. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 11:40 am

OA412, of course FLL's runways can handle flights to Europe. Martinair flew FLL-AMS in the past (they have sinced moved to MIA), Laker Airways II flew FLL-LGW before they went under, and Condor flies FLL-FRA on Saturdays. SAA also flew their 744s to FLL 3x a week before new INS rules were activated after 9.11 (negotiations are in the work to bring SAA back this fall). AF could do well on FLL-CDG because they could cater to the large French population living in Ft. Lauderdale, which is quickly approaching the size of Miami's French population, their partner Delta has a large operation at FLL which is expected to grow in the future, and FLL has a very large business community, ranging from Office Depot, AutoNation, and The Sports Authority, that would love to be able to get to Europe via FLL instead of MIA. If AF can tap into the market before someone else does, they can one-up everyone else. While Paris would not make as much sense as London or Madrid, it still is the #3 trans-Atlantic destination from South Florida in terms of O&D.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Tue May 28, 2002 11:45 am

OA412,

I know what "part" you are talking about. Provo, however Provo is considered a completely seperate metro which it is.

If you include Provo, then I guess I can include Colorado Springs, Boulder, and Longmont which will bring Denver's population to more than 3.5 million.

Regarding the Spokesperson knowing nothing, you wouldn't know. The spokesperson met and discussed with Air France last September before 9/11 hit, and discussed with them just recently.

Just this month Denver officials went to Paris to talk with Air France.

Don't tell me he knows "nothing".
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Wed May 29, 2002 12:44 pm

BA said: If you include Provo, then I guess I can include Colorado Springs, Boulder, and Longmont which will bring Denver's population to more than 3.5 million.

By all means you must include Colorado Springs, Boulder, and Longmont in any evaluation of DENs passenger potential as SLC must include Provo. The Census bureau has their own reasons for not including these in an evaluation of a city's population but an airline will certainly take them into account. Provo and Ogden are equidistant from SLC yet only one of them is included by the Census bureau in its population figures. The same goes for the three cities you mentioned in Colorado. They must be included in any accurate calculation of DENs pop. base as their proximity to DEN means that these passengers will also take advantage of any international service at DEN.

I argue that SLC may (I stress may) receive AF service prior to any of the above mentioned cities simply because of the DL hub. Although the O/D base is much smaller than DEN, SEA, PHX, DFW, DTW, etc. this can easily be made up for with people connecting in SLC from other cities (including those I have listed, save for DTW) onto the AF flight. AF may see that it is easier to serve DEN, PHX, SEA, etc. via DL codeshares through SLC rather than with their own equipment. Of course, as I am not entirely privy to the numbers of passengers departing each of these airports to Paris and points beyond each year, I cannot make any hard and fast predicitions. However, I do agree that the above mentioned cities are more likely to see an AF flight prior to SLC simply because they are all tried and tested international airports whereas SLCs only international flights are to Mexico and Canada. Furthermore, the larger O/D base should translate into higher yields in those cities than in SLC but we'll have to wait and see.

BA said: Don't tell me he knows "nothing".

Either you misunderstood me or I did not make myself clear enough. I did not in any way mean to say that he knows nothing. Of course, he knows much more than either one of us as he is in direct contact with the airline. What I meant to say is that you should take anything he says with a grain of salt. After all, he does not work for AF and is therefore unaware of the airline's exact plans. As I stated earlier, our airport spokesperson here in SLC has stated several times that we are on the brink of receiving international service when we clearly are not. Over the years I have read that BA, VS, AF, KE, OZ, etc., are about to make an announcement about SLC service. Obviously, none of the above yet serve SLC. Thus, my point was that although he knows a lot, he may be led to believe that AF service is just around the corner when in fact it is not. Anyway, only time will tell.


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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Wed May 29, 2002 12:58 pm

OA412,

The fact is Provo is a seperate city. No matter how close it is to Salt Lake City, the fact remains is it's a seperate city. Which is why it wasn't included in the Census. If I include all the cities close to Denver, then Denver's population will be 4 million.

Just because they are connected or very close to eacher, doesn't make them the same city.

That's what city limits are for.

Ogden is considered suburb of Salt Lake City, which is why it was included.

Provo is not. Provo has it's own metro limits which is why it is seperate from Salt Lake City.

Therefore I stand by what I said. The population of the Salt Lake City metro is 1.33 million. You don't agree with it, well that's just fine.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Wed May 29, 2002 1:12 pm

Also OA412,

If Airlines really cared so much about serving there alliance partner's hubs. Then Denver would have all the Star Alliance carriers and SLC would have all the Skyteam carriers.

If you look at all of United's hubs, ORD has the most Star Alliance carriers. If you look at Delta's hubs, ATL has the most Skyteam carriers. The reason for this is because these are the airline's primary hubs.

Airlines aren't going to focus on serving ALL alliance hubs. It's just not economical, and yields on transiting routes are not always as high as serving a destination for O&D purposes.

O&D is always what brings in the real bucks.

Lufthansa came to Denver not mainly because it was a Star Alliance hub. I'm sure that was part of the reason, but the main reason why they came is because they want a piece of the market.

They came for the same reason as BA came.

It will be the same story for Air France. They will want a piece of the pie.
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RE: Lufthansa Flights From/to Denver 110% Booked

Wed May 29, 2002 3:17 pm

OK this is getting way off topic but I'll go ahead and respond anyway. I never, ever meant to argue that SLC metro is not 1.33 million. It is! Actually, it is something like 1 million or so without Ogden. Now being from SLC I must refute your statement that Ogden is a suburd of Salt Lake. Bountiful is doable, Farmington, Lehi, Alpine, Park City, etc. maybe, but no one here will ever, under any circumstance tell you that Ogden is a suburb of SLC it just is not. It is added in the Census as being part of the SLC metro area but I would argue that the Census people are wrong. Hell, just because the Census bureau says it, doesn't make it right.

Anyway, you are missing my point! Regardless of what the Census bureau deems a suburb it does not matter when an airline considers serving a city. An airline looks at the whole picture when taking into account how many locals are available to use a particular service. When an airline looks into serving SLC they are not going to look at the Census bureau figures and say that just because Provo is a separate city they should not be included. Regardless of whether Provo is considered part of SLC or not, it does not matter, an airline takes in the whole picture. The same goes for DEN. No airline that started service there just disregarded that extra 1.5 million people just because the Census bureau does not consider those cities to be part of Denver Metro proper.
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