AvObserver
Topic Author
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 8:23 am

I think Boeing must be privately worrying about the future of their Jumbo. If they don't launch the -400XQLR variant this month as is hoped for, how much of a future can it have. With sales of the standard -400 apparently dried up, the ER with only (I believe) 13 so far and no launch order yet for the XQLR, things aren't looking good to me. What do the rest of you out there think?
 
Sonic
Posts: 1505
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2000 3:10 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 8:58 am

I think this Boeing needs to leave only 3 airplanes in their fleet. That's 737, 757 and 777. 737NG goes for short range 100-200 seats and competes with A32X, 757 goes in medium range 180-250 seats and is good for changing old A310. 777 would go for 250-420 seats. Maybe 777-100 and 777-400 could be created - the first one (with maybe 260 seats) to change A300 (lots of them getting old) and early 767s (some of early 767s could also be changed by 757-300). 777-400 (with 410 seats) would change 747s, because many of these are getting old.

I believe 747's main problem is lack of "family". Let's say A340-600 is compatible with other A340s and A330s. So, airline who got A340-600 can also easily get A340-200 and A330-300 let's say without costs needed to introduce other new type.
 
FlagshipAZ
Posts: 3192
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 12:40 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 9:06 am

I think the whole industry of aircraft manufacturing is either going thru a dry spell or it's totally reinventing itself. After Sept. 11th, nothing is going to be the same again, whether it building airplanes or being an airline. The 747 is the biggest commercial airplane flying at the moment. Boeing may be privately worried about the 747 program at the moment, but the company as a whole will survive. Sometimes it best to sell a few more 737s than 1 747, if you can understand my meaning here. IMO, I won't write the 747 off. Once the A380 comes online, the 747 salesmen will highly aggressive again. And I'm pretty sure the designers/engineers are hard at work thinking of new, improved variants. Just my two cents worth. Regards.
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." --Ben Franklin
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 9:36 am

This is not meant to be a flame, but has Airbus sold any more of the A380s yet this year? I think the market right now for a large jumbo of any variety is fairly limited.
 
Boeing Nut
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2001 2:42 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 10:14 am

Indeed, we are in different times right now. If 9/11 hadn't happened and the world economy was healthy, both the 747 and A380 would be very prosperous. Every program has their lean years and the 747 is no exception. But don't count it out yet. The QLR will keep the "ole' whale" line going for a long time. For one thing, an environmentally friendly airplane will be a hot commodity soon.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
CX747
Posts: 5566
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 10:20 am

I have to agree that the entire industry is in a dry spell right now. Let's wait and see. Also, I don't think the sales of the 777, A330, A340 or A380 have been outstanding either. Are we sure that the data about only 1 747 being sold is correct? I thought that 5 had been ordered?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
AvObserver
Topic Author
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 10:55 am

TO: CX747 - I got that figure off of Boeing's website, perhaps it's the only confirmed order of 5 intended and the customer is unidentified. I agree it's too soon to write off the 747 but the order drought is disquieting and if the XQLR variant isn't launched, I think it might be the beginning of the end for the venerable jumbo. True, the other widebodies aren't "hot", either but at least their orders haven't been practically nil. As a 747 fan, this is the last thing I want to see, I had high hopes that Boeing would launch the 747X last year but was quite dashed that they couldn't sell it. Hopefully, the less ambitious XQLR will fare better, maybe we'll get the answer later this month.
 
NWA742
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 11:35 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 11:35 am

To all those thinking about Boeing only producing 3 aircraft, you want to tell me why wouldn't it be the same with Airbus? Airbus aircraft are not any more advanced, modern, or efficient than Boeing aircraft.

As for the 757/767 age, the first flight may have been in 1982 or so, but by no means does that mean that they are not technologically advanced, or too old for today. They still are very modern aircraft, and most of them flying today are nowhere near 20 years old like some of you think.

The 747 has a long way to go IMO. I have a feeling that Boeing will completely redesign it, it would be like making a whole new program, but just with the same name on the tail, "747".



-NWA742
Some people are like slinkies - not good for anything, but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs
 
IMissPiedmont
Posts: 6200
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 12:58 pm

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 11:55 am

To all who think this downturn is due to Septemberr 11, I assure you it's not. The airline business is very cyclical. This has happened every 20 years since the 1920s. Not to worry, in a few years the ailines will again be flooding Airbus and Boeing with orders.

PS : The current situation predates SEP 11 by at least 6 months.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
Boeing Nut
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2001 2:42 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 11:59 am

True, but 9/11 sure as hell didn't help it.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
IMissPiedmont
Posts: 6200
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 12:58 pm

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 12:02 pm

Spell check alert! Since when are there 2 Rs at the end of the ninth month?
Sorry.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
Reggaebird
Posts: 886
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 1999 7:43 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 1:54 pm

The thought that Boeing should drop to a 3-aircraft stable is ridiculous. That was the problem that Airbus had for so many years. Now, at least, they have a good product range.

As for the 747, it will do just fine for those who can't afford or don't want the "blob" (A380)
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 2:04 pm

I continually see comments on how Boeing should drop the 753 and 764 because they are failures, just wait a few years when the current fleets get a little old, and the airlines that have 757's and 767's will buy the 753 and 764. They are both great planes, and when the time for replacement comes, boeing will have them ready rather than having to create a new design

Jeremy
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 2:07 pm

I think you're taking too short a view in a long-term industry.

Jumbo's are always the first hit by concerns within the industry, since they are the most expensive to operate. With a 767, one can always leave pax at the gate -- but flying 230 people in a 747 is a fast way to failure.

Now, if orders were pouring in the A380 and A346, then Boeing would be right to be concerned.

Steve
 
Boeing Nut
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2001 2:42 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 2:34 pm

Now, if orders were pouring in the A380 and A346, then Boeing would be right to be concerned.

Very, very good point Sllevin.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
jwenting
Posts: 9973
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2001 10:12 pm

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 3:41 pm

The original statement is wrong anyway... KLM ordered 3 aircraft for example, they just don't show up in the statistics yet for some reason (maybe the papers haven't been officially signed or the aircraft will appear on the 2003 statistics for tax reasons, but they have been sold). First to be delivered this year...
I wish I were flying
 
na
Posts: 9129
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 3:47 pm

Boeing updates its orders list monthly. The 3 KLM 744Fs have been ordered last week. Thats why they don´t show up until now.

But as many stated already, its a market problem for big jets in general. Airbus has the same problem, and that with even newer products. Compared to the sales of the last two years, the 777 is actually doing even worse in sales than the 747 this year!!!
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 10:44 pm

Since 9/11 Lufthansa and Air France have ordered the A380, Qatar Airways is going to place an order for additional A380s soon, most likely. Finnaly Airbus did sign up quiet a few widebodies since 9/11 for Swiss, SAA, Emirates, Qatar, CX, ...
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
Guest

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Thu Jun 06, 2002 10:57 pm

Back in the mid 1970's, the 747's were not selling very well. Boeing almost cancelled their 747 program because of this lack of sales. But by the turn of the decade, sales began to skyrocket and the 747 program turned around for the good.

It appears a similar scenario is playing out now. You see, there are A LOT of 747's in operation right now, so airlines are pretty much stacked up with the Jumbos. When the 747-400 reaches its 20th anniversary in 2009, then Boeing will need to focus on developing newer and more advanced forms of the 747. The 747 program is far from over. So to all you Airbus fans out there....TOO BAD!!!:D
 
erikr
Posts: 102
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2001 1:59 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Fri Jun 07, 2002 12:16 am

There was a very good feature in the Seattle Times about two weeks ago about the future of the 747. Below is the link. However, if you can find the actual paper, there were diagrams and details of all of the 747's competetion (ie 777, A340, A380...)

-Erik Rosenow

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/134461674_jumbo260.html
 
CX747
Posts: 5566
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Fri Jun 07, 2002 3:57 am

While I will agree that there is a current lull in orders for the 747, I will not agree with anyone who says that production will soon stop. The worlds current 747-400 fleet is not in need of replacement right now. When those jets reach replacement age 4-5 years from now, then you will see 747 sales increase. I guess that the Qantas order of the 747-400ER and the Air France order of the 747-400ER have been forgotten. If these two airlines praise the aircraft, I would assume that other airlines looking for a boost in capacity and range will follow suite and order it or its sister the 747-400QXLR.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
heavymetal
Posts: 4442
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 3:37 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Fri Jun 07, 2002 4:12 am

I think we can all agree that both companies are their own worst enemies...what I mean is they both build such a high quality product it doesn't need to be replaced alot.
 
AvObserver
Topic Author
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Fri Jun 07, 2002 7:51 am

TO: Erikr - Thanks for the link, that confirmed a lot of what I'm thinking. Despite assurances from a lot of you, I feel the 747's future is much in doubt and that failure to launch the XQLR model would be a serious or perhaps fatal blow for the program. I hope I'm wrong but that's how I see it.
 
Notar520AC
Posts: 1517
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2001 6:53 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Fri Jun 07, 2002 11:49 am

You all just remember- AVIATION will NEVER go under. NEVER! Besides, there's always choppers. heheheheh..... Big grin
BMW - The Ultimate Driving Machine
 
JU101
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2001 1:57 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Fri Jun 07, 2002 1:34 pm

I think the market is saturated with the B747.

As for what i see from Boeing, the 717 was a very big mistake. Doesnt it fall in direct competition to the 737-600? Even the 757 is seeminly becoming redundant, as Boeing has introduced the 737-800 and 737-900.

And on final note. What are the significant deferences between the 767-400 and the 777?
 
AvObserver
Topic Author
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Sat Jun 08, 2002 3:39 am

TO: JU101 - As formerly hub dominated routes "fragment", the 747 is being replaced with smaller, more economical aircraft better suited to reduced capacity runs, like 767s, 777s, A330s and A340s. The 747 is now too big for many of its' former routes and has become largely superfluous for many carriers. The 717 is optimized for shorter flights than the 737-600 but does have similar capacity. And yes, the stretched 737s are likely encroaching on the 757-200's sales. The 767-400 and the 777-200 are fairly close in passenger capacity but the 777 typically flies longer routes (it has a much larger wing), has a significantly higher cruise speed (mach .84 vs. mach .80) and is a fly-by-wire airplane like most Airbus models while the 767 still uses the old cable controlled hydraulics.
 
AvObserver
Topic Author
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Sat Jun 08, 2002 8:53 am

Actually, several of you have made good points about the new A380, also. If the Boeing route fragmentation scenario is accurate, it also means the market for the A380 is also limited, at least in the near-term. Airbus has sold 97 (85 confirmed) but hardly any of those were recent. They had an initial rush of orders built largely on massive discounts to launch customers then orders tailed off. Although the A380 is undoubtedly more efficient than a 747-400 on paper, that's true only if you can fill it up. If the decline in trunk routes going through large hubs doesn't reverse itself in the next few years, the A380 program as well may be in trouble; it needs 250 orders to reach breakeven point. On the other hand, if the Airbus prediction of growth in both types of routes comes to pass, there may well be continued room for both the 747 and the A380. Perhaps even the revival of Boeing's stretched 747X.
 
Leezyjet
Posts: 3540
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2001 7:26 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Sat Jun 08, 2002 9:12 am


As the old saying goes "All good things must come to an end".

The 747 has enjoyed the best part of 30 years without any competition in it's class, so it's about time things should change, and really how much more can you do to a design that was conceived in the '60's. Best Boeing accepts that it's time is up, and concentrates it's efforts on another radical new design (Sonic Cruiser) like the 747 was back in the '60's.

 Smile
"She Rolls, 45 knots, 90, 135, nose comes up to 20 degrees, she's airborne - She flies, Concorde Flies"
 
AvObserver
Topic Author
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Sat Jun 08, 2002 11:02 am

I agree with you Leezyjet that Boeing should focus on the Sonic Cruiser but I don't think Boeing should yet give up entirely on the 747, even though its' time may well indeed be about up. Perhaps if another 5 years of marketing fails to yield significant orders, it will be time for Boeing to pull the plug but not just yet. There's much to be said for a proven design, even against newer, unproven competition if the operating economics are similar. We may be in the twilight of the Jumbo's career but Boeing should keep trying to sell it for awhile, at least until world economies have recovered from the latest recession.
 
JU101
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2001 1:57 am

RE: Only 1 747 Sold Thusfar This Year.

Sat Jun 08, 2002 11:39 am

AvObserver,

Thanks for your clarification. It makes a lot of sense.

I am anyhow glad that there is an increased tendancy for an increasing number of cities that now operate transcontinental flights. The development of a 737-sized aircraft for extended range is a good idea, and it could one day substancially diminish the need for transit at certain cities.