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New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 1:48 pm

Taiwanese Media today reported a new theory of CI611 crash according to ASC.

The investigation team of the crashed CI611 found out that the 747-200 was raising its altitude at 3400ft/min from 1200ft/min. At this rate of speed, the 747 was flying as fast as a military fighter jet.

This leads to a brand new theory, saying the doomed CI611 may not be hit by anything. It was the sudden-created gigantic turbulant that caused the crash. This turbulant was believed to raise the aircraft's altitude suddenly, and it was very strong and huge (otherwise a normal turbulant won't send the plane upwards).

A suggestion for this turbulant is that there was a brand new missile was in the process of testing. This new missile exploded RIGHT BELOW the doomed 747. With the explosion of the missile, it causes the gigantic turbulant and sends to plane upward.

However, this was only the suggestion at the early stage, as only 20% of the wreckage found so far. The team needs at least 70% of the ripped-fuselage in order to find a clue what cause the crash.
 
CPDC10-30
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RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 2:08 pm

3400ft/min rate of climb is certainly quite high for that aircraft, but it is certainly not impossible although that rate could not be sustained. And who was behind the missile testing, PRC or ROC?
 
na
Posts: 9129
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 5:15 pm

Its very mysterious that strange things happened minutes before the breakup, yet the Cockpit-crew didn´t express any sign of stress or shock.
What could be the reason for the strange movements of the aircraft, strange noises in the cockpit, one engine running a bit rough, still not a single word from the pilots?
 
hkgspotter1
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Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 12:43 pm

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 5:31 pm

Normal day in the office for a crew on CI ?
 
A320FO
Posts: 209
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2000 12:28 am

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 5:40 pm

3400 ft/min is actually not very uncommon, also at high altitudes. CI 611 was on a (for a 747) fairly short flight, so a climb with a high fixed thrust setting (climb thrust) combined with a low weight (low trip fuel for flight) will yield otherwise uncommon performance.
 
khi747
Posts: 1532
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2000 6:30 am

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 5:46 pm

Why the F**k would some one be test firing missiles,in the path of commercial jetliners of all places!!!!!! If they did that....i would be mad pissed at the Military....
 
CX Flyboy
Posts: 6007
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 1999 6:10 pm

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 5:59 pm

We achieved 5000ft per minute rate of climb today in the 777 sim, just by flying our Max Angle Speed. You wouldn't normally do it, but of course, it is possible to. As for the missile, that really is a little far fetched!!
 
dynkrisolo
Posts: 1823
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2001 12:12 am

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 9:19 pm

Hkgspotter1:

You will get no argument from me that CI's safety standard is appalling. But your comment is totally uncalled for. Do you think all of the pilots involved in those CI crashes did it intentionally? No, they didn't. They made unfortunate decisions and mistakes. Please have some respect for other human beings. When it comes to China Airlines, Singapore Airlines, and Boeing, you always make immature comments!
 
wannabe
Posts: 652
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 1999 3:37 am

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulent

Wed Jun 26, 2002 9:35 pm

3400 feet per minute for how long??? 1 second? 30 seconds? What was the rate of climb and the crew inputs to controls just prior to that rate of climb? Where did the Taiwanese Media attribute their sources to? Releasing mere tidbits of information just raises more speculations.
 
hkgspotter1
Posts: 5750
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 12:43 pm

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 9:40 pm

Sorry Teacher !!

I'll never do it again.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: New Theory Of CI611 Crash: Gigantic Turbulant

Wed Jun 26, 2002 10:46 pm

I don't buy this theory at all. If there were a sudden fit of violent, unexpected turbulence, I think at least one of the three in the cockpit would have reacted with an expletive or comment. Probably all three would have uttered at least a groan. Also, someone in the cabin inevitably screams with the lightest turbulence. The CVR did not catch any of that.

The missle theory does not make sense. If a missle exploded near the plane, the plane probably would not disintegrate without some evidence of fire. Even if missle debris hit and disabled the plane, they would have had time for a mayday call. KAL 007 flew for over 10 minutes after a direct hit by a missle. It seems that some people are convinced that a PLA missle is somehow responsible.

My latest unscientific guess is that the plane started disintegrating gradually with parts failing in sections. The sudden climb towards the end could have been caused by the separation of the trim tab. The whole thing might have been precipitated by metal fatigue and a perhaps an unusually hard landing on a recent flight.

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