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Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2002 8:43 pm

How Long Left For The 747?

Mon Aug 05, 2002 5:52 pm

With all these new 2 engined aircraft that fly longer and faster than before, what do you think the future of the 747 will hold? I think we will see the 747-400 fly in the way it is used now (a lot!!) for another 13-15 years. After that people will either switch to using aircraft like the 777 or A330, or they will use A380's.
What do you think?
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RE: How Long Left For The 747?

Mon Aug 05, 2002 6:03 pm

Oh god not again........... Insane

Some people are like slinkies - not good for anything, but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs
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RE: How Long Left For The 747?

Mon Aug 05, 2002 6:14 pm

hmm, since when is the A380 a twin  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

747s seem to last well over 30 years before being scrapped. Given that the aircraft is still in full scale production (albeit currently somewhat slower because of the economic malaise) you can expect them to be around for at least another 40 years unless there is a major breakthrough that makes ALL current aircraft designs economically obsolete instantly (and even then many will continue to soldier on because their owners can't afford to replace them with the new equipment instantly).
Given that new orders are still coming in, that will most likely be closer to 50 years even if no new modifications are created.
I wish I were flying
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RE: How Long Left For The 747?

Mon Aug 05, 2002 6:25 pm

Forever, Eternity  Smile
Boeing747 万岁!
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RE: How Long Left For The 747?

Mon Aug 05, 2002 8:00 pm

Jwenting says it almost all.

I expect the very last 747 still be flying as goverment aircraft or for other special purposes when the last 777 will be scrapped already.
When the the bigger part of the huge 744-fleets will be due for retirement from premier airlines around 2010 there´ll most likely be a competely new version of the 747 with more economic engines that´ll serve this market. It´ll never be sold in such high numbers as the 744 (because there´s no denying that about 50% of the current segment will be taken over by the A380 and the B773ER/A346), but there´s a gap in aircraft size between the smaller B777/A340s and the A380 were there is no 1:1-competitor in sight, not even in the long run.

I hope that this is the last topic with this title. There have been to many on this forum.