LHMark
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AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 5:31 am

After decades of service, American has pulled out of Rochester, leaving only American Eagle to serve this floundering, rusting city.

That mausoleum-like airport has never looked emptier.

-Mark
"Sympathy is something that shouldn't be bestowed on the Yankees. Apparently it angers them." - Bob Feller
 
Guest

RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 5:38 am

How unfortunate, but these days money talks. If Rochester was making them tons of money you can bet in this day especially they'd stay.
 
SESGDL
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 5:48 am

Not surprising, all the majors are removing flights from smaller cities and putting regionals on them instead. It's a move that saves money and lets them utilize planes were better suited.

Jeremy
 
KROC
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 8:23 am

When I saw this on the news today, I felt like I got kicked in the balls. AA leaves ROC. UA is talking about leaving KBUF. What a joke Western NY flying is.
 
Pilot1113
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 9:47 am

You guys still have JetBlue! I wouldn't be that bummed out.

- Neil Harrison
 
GD727
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 9:58 am

It's a shame ROC is loosing service, I just flew in there a couple of weeks ago on Us Airways Express, ROC is a very nice airport, it has a great observation area, hopefully someone will pickup the service AA is leaving.

-GD727
Mmmm forbidden donut.
 
AmericanF100
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:37 am

American is finally following in Delta and United's footsteps in removing mainline and replacing with regional service at the smaller cities. A smart move I agree, but it still really dissappoints me. I'm worried about what's gonna happen at MSP with AA getting rid of the Fokker 100 and all, I hope we don't get a bunch of regional stuff instead.

Matt~
 
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yyz717
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:59 am

Wow.......in the early-mid 70's, AA actually sked DC-10-10's into ROC. What a come down.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 2:39 pm

I highly doubt that AA will switch service to RJs on flights to MSP, if my memory serves me correctly, they are the #2 carrier to MSP (albeit a far #2), by switching to RJ service on ORD-MSP they are just asking UA to take away passengers, especially high-paying business people. Most people would fly a 737 over an RJ any day. The route in terms of connections, is way too valuble to throw an RJ on it. Right now you have hourly service I think to ORD with a mix of 100s and M80s, maybe you can expect M80s leaving about every hour and a half. As for ROC, its about time. That city has been in a hole since the early 80s. My uncle still lives in ROC (for some strange reason unknown to the rest of our family!), and I usually go up there to visit him and catch a Sabers game in Buffalo. I dont think I have ever been on a half-full flight, no matter which carrier, AA, UA, US, DL...they are always empty. ROC really deserved what was coming to it, and hopefully the city will realize the mess that they have created in the city. The bottom line is that ROC was unable to convert from a blue-collar city to a city with commercial life after the 70s. Detroit did it, Cleveland did it, Pittsburgh too, Buffalo to a certain extent...but the rust belt still thrives in good ol' Rochester and the city suffers for it today. But I too will miss the F100, it was probably my favorite A/C for some reason, I guess I just liked the quirkiness of it.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 3:00 pm

ROC really deserved what was coming to it, and hopefully the city will realize the mess that they have created in the city. The bottom line is that ROC was unable to convert from a blue-collar city to a city with commercial life after the 70s. Detroit did it, Cleveland did it, Pittsburgh too, Buffalo to a certain extent.

What planet are you living on? Rochester has always been primarily a tech, white-collar city, as those of us who have lived there know. Kodak, Xerox, and Bausch & Lomb are the major employers. They are surrounded by many small tech companies, and the University of Rochester's medical school and hospital is becoming a big employer.

Don't talk about what you don't know. I wouldn't even bother responding to your uninformed nonsense, but there are people at the forum who are unfamiliar with Upstate New York. They might get the wrong impression if someone didn't set the record straight.

AA's move is foolish. Their scope clause straitjackets their RJ fleet badly. These a/c can operate high-yield business-center routes like the RDU focus city. AA has been developing such high-yield RJ niche routes for over a year. Why they're wasting six high-CASM roundtrip RJ segments on Rochester, when they could run 3 daily MD-80's to the ORD "rolling hub," is beyond me.

If the Cartel doesn't want to provide Rochester with sufficient air service for our market (and six RJ's to ORD by a hub carrier is *not* sufficient for that market), someone with lower costs will. The demand is there, the fares simply need to be reasonable enough to draw it out. Rochester businesses, like businesses everywhere, are in revolt against propping up the Cartel's high cost structure.

AirTran, by all accounts I read, is prospering at ROC. All the FL flights I've taken there have been 85-95 percent full. They'll probably be third-largest carrier behind JetBlue soon, if they aren't already. If UA is considering downgrading BUF to RJ's, you can bet they're considering the same at ROC. That simply makes ROC all the riper for Southwest--poor service to Chicago, and that big new MDW terminal opening up.

Jim

Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 4:02 pm

Yeah! Kodak! Xerox! High-tech....hardly. Thriving...hardly. Your entire post illustrated my point on why ROC doesnt have AA mainline service. 80% of businesses travel mostly on full-service airlines. True. The average businessman favors convienience and FFPs above fare. True. Now, by saying that FL and JB are 2 and 3 behind US just ruined your arguement. What does that tell me? That either businesses are really cheap in Rochester or that there is not much business travel going on. The latter is the case and it is shown by the success of lowfare carriers at ROC. The average leisure flyer could care less about convienience and instead just wants to get there cheap. Do you actually think that Don Carty cared about what the residents of Crapchester (as Jim Rome refers to it as) thought about AA? No, he couldnt care less, because he knows that the money on the route is not coming from Rochester travelers, it is coming from inbound passengers. He knows that he will not be able to compete with USs northeast network for business travelers, and in terms of leisure travelers...who cares, let them fly for peanuts on FL or JB, they wouldnt help AA pay many bills.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
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yyz717
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 7:31 pm

AA's move is foolish

Sorry, I agree. You don't know the financial or operational analysis that went into this decision. Whatever the reason, they deemed ROC unworthy of mainline service. Airlines rarely drop profitable markets.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
KROC
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 7:45 pm

Jcs17. Again, don't talk about what you don't know. For starters, low fare airlines are not attracting more and more business travelers as companys strive to save money in this economy. Given the product jetBlue and Airtran offer (New planes, good service ect) the lack of a meal and a couple inch wider seat, is no big deal. In Western NY, Buffalo and Syracuse considered blue-collar cities, and Rochester is considered a white collar city.

As for US getting business travelers? Hardly. With US's bancruptcy proceedings, flights to and from ROC are being cut down, leaving a gaping hole ripe for an airline to fill.

Anyway Jcs. You can't be too bad a guy, since you listen to my man Jim Rome. Just know what you are talking about. If I wanted to start slinging crap about Dallas, I could, because I actually lived there for a few ticks.......
 
Dalmd88
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 9:46 pm

I have to agree with DCA-ROCguy. Show me the DL flight that is half full. Getting into ROC or SYR nonrev is almost impossible. If I want to go home for the weekend to visit I'm looking for the flight the least oversold to try to get on. Somebody is buying those seats in first so it's not only low fare traffic.

AA also cut service to SYR. Thier yeild in this market can't be much off from DL. I'm not privy to the DL numbers but I fly on this route enough to have a good make up of the usual mix. On Thrus, Fri, Sun, Mon these flights tend to be very full. They fill up within the last few days, so there must be some high yield tickets being sold. Anyone who has bought a ticket into this market knows the lowest ticket on the plane isn't a real deal compared to what exists in other markets. What does this mean to me? AA is in worse shape than they are leading us to believe. The TWA merger is killing them. Mark my words they are the next to fall.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 9:46 pm

Yeah! Kodak! Xerox! High-tech....hardly. Thriving...hardly. Your entire post illustrated my point on why ROC doesnt have AA mainline service. 80% of businesses travel mostly on full-service airlines. True. The average businessman favors convienience and FFPs above fare.

I didn't say they were thriving, but they are our economic base. Again, you just show your ignorance, because these companies employ high numbers of engineering and tech people, and give Rochester even in weak times an above-average per capita income. Whatever burr you have up your bum about Rochester, take it elsewhere. BTW, Rochester has AA mainline for another five months.

Again, AA's high cost structure made it apparently not worth their while to continue here...fine, let someone else who doesn't need to gouge us, provide service. American Eagle will ensure we stay hooked into the AA network, for those who need it.

Now, by saying that FL and JB are 2 and 3 behind US just ruined your arguement. What does that tell me? That either businesses are really cheap in Rochester or that there is not much business travel going on. The latter is the case and it is shown by the success of lowfare carriers at ROC. The average leisure flyer could care less about convienience and instead just wants to get there cheap.

Low-fare carriers are on the rise everywhere, with business as well as leisure travelers. Business travelers everywhere are being told to cut their costs or stay home. A systemic change is underway in the airline industry. ROC's mainline AA service is one of the victims; this is happening at a lot of medium-size cities.

Businesses all over the place are asking, why should we pay $1600 walkup to the west coast when a low-fare carrier offers it for $600? $500 walkup to New York when a low-fare carrier offers it for $200? Call it "cheap" if you like, they call it good business sense.

Yes, I don't know the economic analysis papers AA did in their decision. However, it is quite fair to extrapolate from the airline's own broader business decisions, and suggest that this one doesn't seem to fit. Whatever.
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
b727
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 9:54 pm

AA is doing this with a lot of cities, Syracuse is also been down-graded to American Eagle service. I will continue to fly jetBlue to keep them in our city.


B727
Glenn
 
Guest

RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 10:03 pm

I guarantee that the low-fare carriers alone cannot support the business travel in Rochester. People still need to go places that aren't major cities.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 10:10 pm

AA is abandoning mainline service to all of upstate New York. I don't think AA necessarily wants to do this but scope clause restrictions, plummeting yields and a weak economy are forcing AA into this position.

I still believe that part of the problem is Upstate New York's. Usually when low-fare carriers enter markets it stimulates demand and even the "Cartel Carriers" add service....aka the "Southwest Effect." We've seen it in places like PVD, MHT,etc. However, since AAI,WN and JBLU arrived in Upstate New York....all that has happened is a rapid bailout of the majors. Part of it is of course the economy and hassle of air travel, but I think part of it is the unhealthy state of Upstate New York's economy.
 
prosa
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 10:35 pm

I still believe that part of the problem is Upstate New York's. Usually when low-fare carriers enter markets it stimulates demand and even the "Cartel Carriers" add service....aka the "Southwest Effect." We've seen it in places like PVD, MHT,etc. However, since AAI,WN and JBLU arrived in Upstate New York....all that has happened is a rapid bailout of the majors. Part of it is of course the economy and hassle of air travel, but I think part of it is the unhealthy state of Upstate New York's economy.

Could be ... on the other hand, Upstate's economy has been in the toilet for many years. Its woes long pre-date the arrival of the discounters and the pullout of the majors.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 10:51 pm

I really dont have anything against Rochester, and I really think it is a shame the way the city has kind of deteriorated. Rochester is a pretty nice place (except in the Feburary!), and it is a shame because the schools in the area are excellent and there are some really nice parts of the city (Park Ave., Pittsford, etc.). I just feel that AA was justified by taking out mainline service at ROC, just by the fact that much of their traffic was not ROC originating and they didnt need to attract business in ROC by keeping main-line service. This has happened in a lot of cities, where local traffic was low enough where the mainline sees no reason to attract traffic with the mainline fleet. KROC, as for Dallas, I actually like it here, and I am not a huge fan of the southeast US. Yeah, the airport sucks, and traffic sucks, but it beats Atlanta by a mile. I'm 19 and have grown up in 8 cities, and Dallas makes the top 4 probably. And I take back that statement I made earlier about the half-full flights, I actually was on a packed flight in December (during the huge blizzard) from ATL-ROC on DL.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
KROC
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:10 pm

Jcs. I would campare Dallas and Atlanta to each other favorably. As for Crapchester deteriorating, I hate to break it to you, but Rochester has been improving for years. Revitalization projects, new transportation options, ect are all prt of it. I think if you actually were in the area more than Just visiting now and then, you would see the inaccuracies of your statements. Granted, KROC is far from a booming city, but for a mid-size city, it can hold its own.

As for flights, and AA not getting the business they needed, that is wrong as well. The last few times I have flown out of here, it has been on AA. The MD-80's were all full. Rochester has plenty of business travelers, and they will still need to fly somewhere. I would love to see Northwest make more of a presence here. Like Dalmd88 said, Delta flights have very high yields, as to Airtrans. Even the main cartel here, US still has good business. Something isn't "right" about AA leaving. KROC is now ripe for Southwest and or another airline making a larger presence here.
 
gr8slvrflt
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:16 pm

On the subject of Rochester, does anyone know why the local busses are painted in the current US Airways paintscheme? Is this just a coincidence?
I work for Southwest, but the views expressed are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Southwest.
 
BUFjets
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:18 pm

I'm not an airline operations expert. However, I'm looking at it like this: ROC demand is currently filled with F-100's and ERJ's. Since we all know the F100's are going away, AA can either put some MD-80's on the route or it can add more ERJs. They probably looked at demand and figured out using MD-80's would leave empty MD-80's (no good these days) or they would have to reduce the number of flights from ROC to ORD. Reducing the number of flights offered is not good with many business travelers and is inefficient for the AA employees stationed at ROC.

If AA had 717's, they'd probably use those to ROC in place of the F100, but since they don't, they found the ERJ to be a better replacement than the MD-80.

FYI- I'm one of those Buffalo blue collar people who actually prefer the ERJ over the F100. Some of us blue collar people still fly quite a bit.

 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:36 pm

Midtown Mall? Talk about thriving! Rochester has done some things since the mid 90s that have improved downtown (High Falls, renovating the War Memorial, Frontier Field), but in terms of office leasing in the city, its struggling at best. As I said before though, most of the people on the ORD-ROC-ORD flights are not Rochester passengers and AA just cannot compete with US for local traffic with the sole ROC-ORD flights. The only way local ROC passengers go through ORD on AA is to fly to Chicago, the west coast, or the midwest, and some parts of the southeast. But for a frequent flyer out of ROC, AA cannot compete with US. I guarantee you that the businessman is not connecting in ORD to go to BOS. For convience's sake AA just cannot compete for local traffic like US can, especially for the easy connections in the northeast. Delta can do well in Rochester with business because they have flights to 2 hubs...CVG and ATL, and I would be shocked if DL pulled their mainline out of ROC, however AA pulling it is not suprising at all.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
DouglasDC8
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Thu Sep 05, 2002 11:53 pm

Dalmd88,

Above you posted the following comment about flights to Rochester. "They fill up within the last few days, so there must be some high yield tickets being sold." Two years ago I would have agreed with you 100%. Today I'm wondering if these last minute purchases are being made via Priceline.com, Delta's own website, and other internet sources. My guess is that there are more discounted fares than we suspect.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 2:07 am

As I said before though, most of the people on the ORD-ROC-ORD flights are not Rochester passengers and AA just cannot compete with US for local traffic with the sole ROC-ORD flights. The only way local ROC passengers go through ORD on AA is to fly to Chicago, the west coast, or the midwest, and some parts of the southeast. But for a frequent flyer out of ROC, AA cannot compete with US.

Part of what surprises me about an AA pullout is that Upstate New York does not have westbound low-fare competition. Virtually all of our low-fare service is southbound, excepting JetBlue's connections at JFK to a few major West Coast cities, and WN's 'leap-over' flights to PHX and LAS.

Whether or not the Upstate economy has anything to do with the Cartel's failure to go after low-fare competition traffic, the Cartel doesn't have that problem on westbound. And US--which indeed has an advantage for local traffic in its network area--doesn't fly to the big network of further-midwestern and southern cities AA does. It didn't seem to me like AA and UA compete that much because of their diffent network regions.

Good point BUFJets about the F100 issue. That's probably why they went straight to RJ's. That's going to be a real pain for AA, not having anything in the 80-100 seat category (F100's are 87 seats with MRTC). A lot of medium-size cities are very dependent upon 100-seat a/c to have anything above regional a/c.

Until the early 1980's, most USAir/ Allegheny traffic in upstate NY was on 70 and 100-seat a/c. UA used a lot of 737's, and AA used lots of 125-seat 727-100's. AA and UA used some 150-seat 722's, and US got those in the '80s. 100-seaters continued to be a big presence through the 80's and '90s in UNY though.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:34 am

KROC-
"Tour stop number 27 goes to Crapches....errr! Sacramento!"
Anyway, more on ROC. It is actually a fairly complex market, which is rare for a city that size. AA tried some things before, to compete with US and more northeast dominant carriers. A couple years back though, they cancelled their AAEagle ROC-JFK service but I really hope that things eventually turn around for ROC.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
LHMark
Topic Author
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 5:08 am

Terry Slaybaugh is one of the few public figures in ROC that I admire. The poor guy's always taking one step forward and two steps back. He works his ass off to get Airtran and jetBlue, then gets sucker-punched by AA and (almost certainly soon) other majors.

Transportation options? KROC, I'd like to think you were right, but ROC victimizes itself by talking out its ass about all these barely grandiose projects then doing exactly nothing. Our county executive is trying to close down all the public parks, the youth are fleeing in droves (how are things in DC, Jim?), and the only businesses that have invested in the town over the last couple of years have been donut chains. No wonder the majors fear overcapacity, later if not sooner.

-Mark
"Sympathy is something that shouldn't be bestowed on the Yankees. Apparently it angers them." - Bob Feller
 
Guest

RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 6:09 am

Jim:

Your points about the lack of westbound low-fare competition are completely valid. Thus, this leads me to think the obvious conclusion and reason for the AA pull-out is completely economic.... Rochester just cannot support it. Smaller or similar-sized cities like Louisville, Omaha, and Des Moines have kept mainline service.
 
KROC
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 6:27 am

Jcs....I missed the Sactown Tour Stop announcment, but I still am not over the last tour stop where he went "And Tour Stop #27 goes to Cra-Cra-Cra-DENVER!" God that still stings! What is worse, is the fact I was in Sactown 2 years ago in the Air Force. Not a Rome fan then, but damn!

Midtown Mall is a joke. IF, the right investor ever takes it over, and the continuization of improvements downtown keep going in, it could be a gold mine.

LHMark. I hear what you are saying, but the Bus System is pretty good concidering. The outside chance at a High Speed ferry to Toronto, is a good thing. The late night bus thing that takes people to and from the High Falls that is free is good, but too bad in the winter its full of homeless people sleeping, costig the tax payers. On the whole though, the local businesses are plugging through the horrendous Western NY Economy. Maybe if Galisano gets elected, things will improve. All things concidering though, it could be worse.

DCA-ROC made a great point on the lack of lowfare competition on routes out to the West. Also, even if much of the AA business to Rochester is not originiated in Rochester, who cares? If the planes have people each way, thats all AA cares about. Northwest has a nice opprotunity to take a share of the market now that AA is punking out.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 7:55 am

Yeahm you guys got to hand it to NW....while all the other guys are flying RJ's right and left to Upstate NY, NW still has a huge mainline presence. Thank the DC-9's, they're better than an RJ anyday...well ok so there are a few ARJ's and Saab's through in the mix, but for the most part, even across most of NW's route system, where AA, UA, US, and DL are "RJ-ing the hell" out of their routes. Examples: ABE, ALB (heck you're even getting A319's), BUF, SYR, GRR, LAN, IND, CLE, CMH, GRB, MKE, MBS, PIT, ROC, and others.
 
AirOne
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 8:01 am

It is too bad AA has left.

But what ever happened to that Onieda Air planned start-up. Wasn't it supposed to be based in upstate NY with its hubs in Rochester, Syracuse, and Utica?

AirOne
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 8:03 am

Transportation options? KROC, I'd like to think you were right, but ROC victimizes itself by talking out its ass about all these barely grandiose projects then doing exactly nothing. Our county executive is trying to close down all the public parks, the youth are fleeing in droves (how are things in DC, Jim?), and the only businesses that have invested in the town over the last couple of years have been donut chains. No wonder the majors fear overcapacity, later if not sooner.-Mark

Youth--meaning college age to mid thirties--are plentiful and growing in DC. The area has so many universities, plus all the political groups that want interns, and the tech sector which is actually hanging on. DC is an exciting metro area with lots of opportunities for young people armed with a college degree.

Kodak, Bausch & Lomb, and Xerox will all survive in Rochester, but they probably won't be hiring many young people for awhile. There are way too many unemployed senior engineers, people with 10-25 years experience, in the market. According to friends of mine, a lot of them are sticking around.

Unless some new company enters, or one of our big companies comes up with some dramatic market-changing invention, things will be more or less stable in Rochester. Our metro population always seems to tick upwards, we're almost at 1.1 million now. (In contrast to metro Buffalo which has lost over 200,000 since 1980.)Which suggests to me that even if we're not a hot growth center, those who do get good jobs find Rochester a good place to raise a family.

At some point, though our plodding big companies will have too many retirements, and the unemployed pool will be drained, and--gasp--start having to hire younger people. They will actually--gasp--have to invest a little in training, since they'll have to hire people who won't actually have 10-25 years of experience.

As for air service, I see Southwest entering in the next three years, as the Cartel continues to retrench, and US most likely goes under. 3 dailies to MDW and 7 to BWI are my prediction. If AirTran can get its gate issues in Boston resolved, 2 daily 717s from ROC and 2 from Buffalo would probably do very well. JetBlue will probably add frequencies to JFK as its growth there, and connecting opportunities, warrant.

BOS is way underserved from Western NY, because US can't charge enough to cover its high costs, and charges too much to compete with the Thruway. In the mid 1980's, US and Piedmont were flying (respectively) fleets of 722's and F-28's on ROC-BOS. Demand is there. It just has to be reasonably priced.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 8:27 am

KROC--
I think that Crapchester will eventually get a tour stop, Van Smack has been tormenting you guys way too long not to get one. Will Buffalo clones not be invited? (like the Kansas City-St. Louise thing)  Smile I actually went to the tourstop (my first tourstop) in Kansas City, while I was at summer school in STL and it was awesome!

I think that the future of ROC lies in low fare carriers...As DCA-ROC was saying US cant jack up up the fares to cities like BOS and still break even. But, unlike DCA-ROC, I think that WN will serve ROC no matter what (even if US manages not to go under, but I still think they will). I think that the potential for lowfare westbound travellers is too great for WN to ignore. As for JB adding frequencies to ROC, maybe...it all depends on how many seats JB can add on the routes to NYC, without the route becoming oversaturated. I think that the companies of ROC ought to stop saturating the city with engineers and maybe move some corporate stuff up there. The problem is that the taxes are way too high and even though the schools and quality of living might be better for an executive in ROC, it is not worth the money of the corporation to relocate to ROC.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
LHMark
Topic Author
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 4:16 pm

So, for the most part, we agree. We should look at AA's service interruptus not as a setback, but as the best opportunity to date for attracting WN. (wonders how he can turn this post into an Airbus vs. Boeing war)  Smile
"Sympathy is something that shouldn't be bestowed on the Yankees. Apparently it angers them." - Bob Feller
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 4:20 pm

I think that the companies of ROC ought to stop saturating the city with engineers and maybe move some corporate stuff up there. The problem is that the taxes are way too high and even though the schools and quality of living might be better for an executive in ROC, it is not worth the money of the corporation to relocate to ROC.

I figure that Rochester has been fortunate to hold the corporate headquarters it has. We lost Xerox HQ in the 70's and Gannett's in 1982. Taxes absolutely are a problem. Thank Downstate for that. Taxes in New York State would be much lower if Upstate had anything to say about it. And if Pataki hadn't beaten Cuomo in 1994, corporate taxes would still be much higher than they are, and NY would be in even worse shape.

Monroe County voted for Rick Lazio in 2000.

Jcs, your confidence that ROC will get WN is encouraging, every vote of confidence is welcome. I think our market gets riper for them every day, nowadays.

PSU--good point about NW and DC-9's. That big fleet of 100-seat a/c, all paid for, is indeed why NW can offer mainline jets to so many cities. Yes, they're old, but they're hushkitted and have mainline cabins with refurbished interiors. And now with the new WorldGateway in Detroit, (not to mention DTW's great runway layout compared to snarled ORD) NW is sitting even prettier.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
BUFjets
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 11:02 pm

I went to AA's website and looked at their schedule for March 2003. It still shows F100 service from ROC to ORD. Also, there is nothing in a press release from AA. I realize the Democrat and Chronicle printed the story about no more mainline fleet in ROC, but so far I see no evidence from AA (except the quote in the D&C from an AE spokesperson).
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 11:16 pm

BUFJets,

AA hasn't redone schedules that far in advance. Just have to be patient.

As for WN in ROC...maybe but I don't know if it will happen in the next three years. WN is becoming more and more conservative about adding new cities and I don't see that changing too much. Its far more cost effective for WN to add service between existing cities then launch new service. Right now, there is plenty of demand withing WN's existing route system that there is really no need to rush out and add new cities.
 
jetskipper
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 11:43 pm

It's funny to watch you guys fight over airline service, you believe that mainline service is a direct result of how much pride you have in your home city and it's main priority there is to appease the spotters. Who cares what businesses are there, and if the town is blue collar or white collar. The airlines have done there homework, they have done the reseach and found that mainline service just isn't bringing in the bucks, and that regional service will. I don't think they are going to lose much sleep over the fact that the few people who actually notice the service change are ones who go out to the airport to take pictures not pay for tickets.
 
Rai
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Fri Sep 06, 2002 11:58 pm

Taxes absolutely are a problem. Thank Downstate for that. Taxes in New York State would be much lower if Upstate had anything to say about it. And if Pataki hadn't beaten Cuomo in 1994, corporate taxes would still be much higher than they are, and NY would be in even worse shape.

Hey, hey, hey! I'm all for lower taxes and I live "Downstate". I didn't vote for Hillary either and I'm glad that Pataki will probably beat McCall in the upcoming election. You shouldn't generalize!
 
jcs17
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 12:13 am

Jetskipper: Getting rid of mainline service is huge, do you think people are dumb enough not to realize that their F100 has been replaced with an RJ? They may not see the difference in between the M80 and the 100, but when some FF asks for an upgrade on a flight between ROC-ORD and is told that he is flying an RJ, it will bother him...
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
SegmentKing
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 1:26 am

in Minnie, AA is doing aweful on the MSP/ORD flights. UA and NW owns the MSP-CHI market. AA is just there for marketing presence.... so don't be shocked if you do see ERJs on MSP/ORD for AA.

UA used to fly FULL 757-200s ORD/MSP yet AA can barely fill a F100.... hum

MSP is a good market for anyone who isn't NW :P Things can change....

-n
~ ~ ~ ~ pRoFeSsIoNaL hUrRiCaNe DoDgEr ~ ~ ~ ~
 
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United_fan
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 1:27 am

Didn't Eagle leave ROC after 9/11 ? I also remember reading an article with A^A bragging that Eagle hasn't been used in place of mainline a.k.a Atlantic Coast. I guess this kills any chance of a ROC-DFW  Sad
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LHMark
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 3:04 am

Who said anything about taking pictures? I'm worried about a downgrade in my transportation options. Negative trends are bad. I'm worried about airline service to my city, not because I want to see big planes, but because I live here, want low fares, and high availability to as many destinations as possible.

Does quality of life an civic pride matter? Of course. Quality of life, civic pride, and prestige affect the movements and investments of businesses, which in turn affects the local job market, how many workers there are, the percentage of workers who travel, and the percentage of families that can afford to fly down to Disneyworld for little Johnny's second birthday.

AA's move demonstrates a lack of confidence by the airline in the future of the upstate NY market (It's happening in ROC, SYR, and ALB as well), and a conviction by the airline brass that, if there's money to be made, it ain't about to be made in this neck of the woods. I can't imagine this being a good thing, and dammit, it SHOULD be unacceptable to the citizens and governments of this region.
"Sympathy is something that shouldn't be bestowed on the Yankees. Apparently it angers them." - Bob Feller
 
prosa
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 3:47 am

AA's move demonstrates a lack of confidence by the airline in the future of the upstate NY market (It's happening in ROC, SYR, and ALB as well), and a conviction by the airline brass that, if there's money to be made, it ain't about to be made in this neck of the woods. I can't imagine this being a good thing, and dammit, it SHOULD be unacceptable to the citizens and governments of this region.

Well, the state did do something about Upstate's air service, by making JetBlue provide service to BUF, SYR and ROC in order to get slots at JFK.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
The Rock
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 11:04 am

I understand that BUF has also been abandoned as of 2/03
 
N628AU
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sat Sep 07, 2002 11:53 am

DCA-ROC Guy,

You put too much into the value of CASM measurements, as do those who want to stop more RJs from operating (Big Labor for one). CASM is higher on an RJ than on a mianline jet, but what is the cost actually operate the flight? Without having actual hard numbers, I am going to throw some out there to show why CASM is overrated in importance.

Lets say an RJ has a 14 cent CASM. There are 50 seats and the flight is 500 miles.

50 X 500 X 0.14 = $3500

Lets say an AA Fokker has a 11.5 cent CASM. There are 87 seats and the flight is also 500 miles.

87 X 500 X 0.115 = $5002.50

Now lets say you are averaging 40 passengers per flight. You need $87.50 per passenger to breakeven on those costs on the RJ, while you are required to generate $125.06 per passenger on the F100. Granted, this is a rather simplistic view, but I hope everyone understands why AA probably made this decision. Yes CASM work well on a macroeconomic level (why WN continues to crush everyone), but this is more of a microeconomic comparison. Would you sub an RJ if you had to double the number of flights to handle to demand? Most likely no. This is where the higher CASM will rear it's ugly head and bite you in the rear.
 
FATFlyer
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sun Sep 08, 2002 12:07 am

While Jetskipper is correct that the airlines will lose no sleep over dropping mainline at a city, its more than civic pride. There are studies out there that show that air service or lack of it directly impacts the recruiting of new businesses to a city.

While the airlines will say that they will return when the city gains new companies, many company execs will not consider a city that does not meet certain needs and perceptions, such as airline service (frequency, destination, even the matter of first class seats). So its the chicken and egg, airlines won't offer service if there is not demand but without the service the growth of new demand is limited.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
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United_fan
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sun Sep 08, 2002 1:09 am

I think that people are mad that the world's biggest airline makes our city look second class . Funny how DL can fill up 727's but A^A can't fill up a F100.
Champagne For My Real Friends,and Real Pain For My Sham Friends
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Abandons ROC

Sun Sep 08, 2002 1:41 am

I guess this kills any chance of a ROC-DFW

Not at all. BUF-DFW is going American Eagle.
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