swaluvfa
Posts: 256
Joined: Fri May 17, 2002 1:59 pm

NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 12:53 pm

OK, for the past 5 years now (or maybe more) United and American have been the two largest carriers in the USA, and world. With both of them in VERY bad shape right now, do yall think that Northwest and Delta are going to be the next big 2? After the economy and the airline industry settle down and get back on their feet in the next few years, will Delta and Northwest take AA and UA's spot? Time will tell!!  Smile
 
md80spirit
Posts: 64
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2001 10:31 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 12:59 pm

I see this as the top 5 in the next few years.

1. AA
2. DL
3.NWA
4.CO
5.A new airline that becomes a major

US and UA will be no more.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24724
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 1:03 pm

AA is not in as bad a shape as people think. First of all, surprisingly, they are thinking smart with thier recovery plan, which many analysts say is wonderful. Second, they are loaded with cash in the bank and assets that airlines like Continental could only dream of having.
a.
 
HlywdCatft
Posts: 5232
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2001 6:21 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 1:14 pm

Who knows, Southwest could be the number 1 airline in the U.S. a few years from now, after all it is just them and Jet Blue who have been making a profit since Sept 11
 
jcs17
Posts: 7376
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2001 11:13 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 1:28 pm

I think that AA has made fairly negative public announcements because they dont want their earning announcements to come as total shocks to investors. AA will pull out okay. I also think that UA is safe, they have too much to lose if they go under. If things really start going downhill there, I could see some investors coming in and bailing them out. On the other hand USAirways is a goner, no doubt in my mind about it. USAirways is in an impossible situation right now, especially with the huge influx of RJs in a lot of there main routes. No high-spending business traveler wants to fly on an RJ, and will try to stick with a main airline if he has a choice. No one, not even Gordon Bethune, could turn this one around. I expect the spoils of USAirways to be broken up 4 ways, just my guesses here...Philadelphia hub and some Airbus aircraft to Northwest, Pittsburgh hub and 767s, 757s, and some 737s to Delta, LGA hub and A320s to JetBlue..Neeleman will spend a ridiculous amount of money to grab the LGA hub and routes, the Charlotte hub and the remaining 737s will go to Continental. Thats just the way I see it panning out once US goes under.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
Jaws707
Posts: 667
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2001 10:45 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 2:24 pm

I just want to say that Southwest and Jetblue will not be in the running for any spots in the top 5 US carriers anytime soon. Without any international exposure or any larger aircraft they will never be looked upon the same as NW or AA.
 
BWIrwy4
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Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2001 1:41 pm

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 2:51 pm

I don't know about that. Southwest is now ranked number 6.
 
HlywdCatft
Posts: 5232
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2001 6:21 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Thu Sep 05, 2002 9:42 pm

If it comes down to US Airways and United going belly up, Southwest may try to go international. I know this sounds funny, but can't a 737-700 cross the atlantic? Although I would never want to fly anything that small over the ocean?
 
jcs17
Posts: 7376
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2001 11:13 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 12:18 am

Although the 737-700 can make it across the Atlantic after it is ETOPS certified, I just dont think that Southwest will decide to do it. Apparently, there were huge disagreements at WN when they decided to do transcon service, people thought that the route was just too long for the low service that WN provides. I mean where would Southwest fly out of to go to Europe, perhaps MHT or PVD. I'm sure that Gatwick or DeGaulle wouldnt be served, instead maybe Stansted, Manston or Charleroi could get WN service, but I highly doubt WN will even try it. I think that WN will first attempt service to Mexico or Canada, maybe even Nassau wouldnt be a terrible idea. I highly doubt that WN will serve Europe within 5-8 years.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
Marcus
Posts: 1666
Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2001 5:08 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 12:37 am

Yes....I also think that if WN would start international services (if ever) then the logical destinations would be in Canada and Mexico.....the two biggest problems I see on this are the following:

1.- Customs procedures would most certanly affect the turnaround times.

2.- I don't think the air authorities in Mexico and Canada would like their own flag carriers to go against southwest's business model.
Kids!....we are going to the happiest place on earth...TIJUANA! signed: Krusty the Clown
 
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STT757
Posts: 13267
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 12:43 am

"LGA hub and A320s to JetBlue..Neeleman will spend a ridiculous amount of money to grab the LGA hub and routes"

What money, Jet Blue is operating with all borrowed money. They're only 2 years old! And Jet Blue was launched with tremendous support from NY politicians like Governor Pataki and Sentator Schumer for the sole purpose of bringing domestic service to JFK and lowering fares to Up-State.

They would not be happy if Jet Blue deviated from JFK to build at LGA.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
jmacias34
Posts: 363
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2000 10:50 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 2:03 am

Jaws707,

Southwest should have no desire to become an international carrier. With Southwest's business plan they could easily become the nation's #1 carrier. And just because they aren't the biggest carrier doesn't mean they aren't making the most money - which is the name of the game.
 
ual777contrail
Posts: 2914
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2002 11:33 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:07 am

southwest will only rise one rank if US goes under.
jetblue wont even be a factor in 5 years.they will always be second rate.

with glenn tilton taking over ual,he will make ual a stronger airline.
the unions will agree to help one another and we will once again gain lost ground with the whole usairways,avalar, and the crappiest management team in airline history. we have got a new ceo that is from a diffrent industry, he will turn things around. we have already proven that promoting within the company didnt work(goodwin) and for those of you who say someone without the expirience in the airline industry wont make it, maybe you should look to those who have led the way(greenwald,mullen)

in 5 years my list will be this.

1)UA
2)AA
3)DL
4)NW
5)CO

this is my opinion of the whole deal.most of you on this post seem to always post anti-UNITED posts.
it isnt loyaly for the company, it is a gut feeling that ual will be back soon.


ual 777 contrail
 
jcs17
Posts: 7376
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2001 11:13 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:09 am

STT757; if Neeleman wants the money to finance gates at LGA he can get it, and in no way am I saying that JB would abandon JFK, but instead JFK will be used as a connection airport. LGA will be largely a local airport used for east-coast traffic on US old routes.

America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
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STT757
Posts: 13267
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:22 am

Jet Blue and Southwest are not in the hub business, so connecting traffic means very little.

And if you think banks and investment groups are falling all over themselves to loan airlines money (especially a 2 year old start up) your mistaken, especially with the instability in the industry which might get worse with a invasion of Iraq.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
MD88Captain
Posts: 1224
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 9:50 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:34 am

Neeleman is too smart to go to LGA. Why destroy your well thought out and successful business plan by hubbing out of a congested, delay ridden airport like LGA? JFK is perfect for JB. LGA would be a disaster. Hyper competition. An airport layout that suffers horribly in weather. It goes to one runway operation cutting capacity by 50% when high winds go beyond aircraft limits. No Cat II or Cat III capability. Short runways limiting transcon takeoffs. LGA is busy all day long. Any hiccup in operation screws LGA for hours and sometimes all day long and the next day too. JFK is really busy only a few hours a day. JB needs to stay and expand out of JFK.
 
Rai
Posts: 1697
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:12 pm

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:37 am

LGA would be a disaster.

You're also forgetting that the PA won't allow any more flights into LGA. They capped it at 1200 movements per day. Plus, trans-cons aren't allowed out of LGA.
 
CactusA319
Posts: 2822
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2000 1:51 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 3:49 am


jetBlue is a second-rate airline? Hardly.

Although I don't see them being a major within the next five years, I definitely don't see UA being on top of the heap by 2007. New CEO or not, United is probably going to shrink and probably be 3rd or 4th. Also this new CEO has absolutely no airline experience. We'll see how that works. However that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

 
mikeymike
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu May 18, 2000 6:52 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 6:05 am

UAL777contail....

I tend to agree with you that Tilton will bring UAL around. There are some issues I dissagree with and that is especially on the organized labor at UAL. I don't believe that any of the unions will end up helping one another. The Unions postured to prohesized rhetoric to get the old management out. (Thats a good thing) however I believe that in a years time, the unions will have settled back to there militant (just my choice of words) ways of bullying management into giving them what they want. Does this mean that UAL will sink. No! I think UAL will go into bankruptcy and Tilton will re-organize with the help of the unions to become a smaller but more lean company. They will emerge in the top 5 but I don't believe at the number one spot.

 
jcs17
Posts: 7376
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2001 11:13 am

RE: NWA And DL To Come Out Strong?

Fri Sep 06, 2002 7:03 am

Nowhere in my post did it say that JB would be successful at all if they took over USs operations at LGA. I just think that it could be a really rash move that a quickly growing JB could make, I mean weve seen this kind of thing happen time and time again. Where an airline just wants to see its route map grow and sometimes doesnt think about the future of its routes down the line. I.E.-West Pac moving from COS to DEN.
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!

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