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lindy field
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Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 6:08 am

What with low-cost carrier Southwest having just inaugurated its first transcontinental route BWI-LAX with 73Gs, I'm curious about what other transcon routes WN might fly in the future. Which coastal cities are most likely to receive transcon service? So, if you have any inside information or just an educated guess, please share. Also, has there been any confirmation that Southwest will start BWI-OAK in the near future? Thanks for your replies.

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OPNLguy
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 6:17 am

Just speculation at "connecting the dots" but possibly:

BWI-OAK, BWI-SEA, BWI-PDX, BWI-SAN,
MCO-SAN, MCO-LAX, MCO-OAK, MCO-PDX, MCO-SEA
TPA-SAN, TPA-LAX, TPA-OAK, TPA-PDX, TPA-SEA.

I tend to think that AUS-SJC and RDU-SJC might do well... RDU-PDX or SEA also...

Just guessing...
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
chepos
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 6:25 am

They should try nonstop flights from MCO-OAK and MCO-LAX aswell as TPA-LAX nad TPA-OAK.
Chepos
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sllevin
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 6:26 am

I know it's just dreaming, but NYC area (closer than ISP) and ATL would be a great thing!

(hey, a guy can dream!)

Steve
 
scottysair
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 6:53 am

Wait!! I do knew that one as for last time with Midway were flies nonstop from RDU-SJC by first-ever nonstop as for itself. That was last years of summer 2001. I do exactly was remembered that one as for myself.

Also, how about should get a try nonstop from FLL-PHX, LAS, OAK, SEA, PDX, or ABQ flight by SWA future expansion routes. So hope this is your helps. Thanks!!
 
Hurricane
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 6:56 am

I'm pretty sure RDU-SJC was fairly popular when Midway flew it, so I think it could work again. Also, traffic between RDU and LAX is fairly high each day, though there is no direct routing right now. I'm fairly certain there are enough people to fill a plane or two every other day or so.
 
srbmod
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 8:18 am

My thoughts are:
MCO-LAX
MCO-OAK
MCO-LAS
MCO-SEA
BWI-PDX
BWI-SEA
BWI-OAK
RDU-SJU
RDU-SEA
ISP-LAX
ISP-SEA
ISP-OAK
BHM-LAX
BHM-LAS
BHM-OAK
 
AS_GSC
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 9:41 am

These are all great routes that WN would certainly be successful running.

If WN doesn't take any new aircraft deliveries, what routes would they need to reduce in order to implement the new ones?

How about starting a SEA-ANC route?  Smokin cool ( I know it's not a transcon, but hey)

All the best!

AS_GSC

 
scottysair
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 9:53 am

Well, let's have to try as for get more new route to Alaska flight from Seattle. This is very popular winter into Alaska by the cold weather as for itself. This is really beautiful mountain out there as for near at the ANC airport itself. So hope this is your like that one!! Big grin
 
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lindy field
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 10:24 am

Any thoughts on whether transcons from Providence or Hartford would work? I need easier ways to get to California!
 
sllevin
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 10:36 am

Hurricane: Southwest has offered direct service SJC-RDU for at least a couple of years now (a stop at MCI), and when I've flown the SJC-MCI portion, the plane's had decent loads, even back when Midway was flying the route.

Steve
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 10:52 am

Lindy, I think BDL-LAX and BDL-SFO might work. United has run BDL-LAX for at least the past few years, maybe longer. If a Cartel carrier can make that route work, Southwest probably could easily. The 15 dailies at BDL include nonstops to BNA and MCI, so clearly the market supports some long flights.

Providence is a possibility; of the two "Boston bracket" WN cities, it has grown at a faster rate than MHT. PVD is at 28 dailies which include nonstops to Kansas City, Nashville, and Phoenix. So longer flights seem to work there too.

With WN and JetBlue driving transcon fares down to the $200 range, the market for transcon flights will probably grow substantially. Most Northeasterners, longtime hostages of US, are used to paying well over $200 21-day advance fares just to get around in their own fool region. Probably even BUF could support a daily LAX nonstop at those fares.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
MAH4546
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 11:03 am

Lindy, I think BDL-LAX and BDL-SFO might work. United has run BDL-LAX for at least the past few years, maybe longer.

BDL-OAK, since WN no longer serves SFO. It is American that has ran LAX-BDL in the past few years. Service has been on and off. Cut in October 2001, only to be re-announced in April 2002 with a 15 June 2002 start-date, but cut again before it re-started. UAL also had BDL-SFO, cut in October 2001. WN could make it work.
a.
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 12:49 pm

How about ORF-SAN? Seems like it would draw a lot of Navy traffic.

LoneStarMike

 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 12:50 pm

SEA/OAK/LAX/SAN - BDL/BWI/MCO/FLL/TPA pick your combination.

WN could "connect the dots" for 2 or 3 years minimum without adding another city IMO.
This may be the most prudent method of expansion until the economy picks up.
Next up: STL-OAK-RNO-LAS-ICT-STL
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 1:13 pm

WN could "connect the dots" for 2 or 3 years minimum without adding another city IMO. This may be the most prudent method of expansion until the economy picks up.

WN could continue a "connect the dots only" strategy, but I don't think they will. WN's business model is virtually bottomless--it simply requires big enough catchment areas for their minimum 10 dailies. I suspect that they've been so conservative this year partially because they wanted to absorb their new pilot contract (something they knew was coming) before adding cities. As a matter of fact, if the economy stays soft, WN's prospects are still strong.

There are a lot of airports that could fill 10 73G's on day one at good yields. WN could enter MKE and draw from the entire state of Wisconsin. WN could enter COS and draw from the entire state of Colorado. They could enter ROC and SYR, and solidify their hold on Upstate NY as the Cartel continues to screw us with RJ's on decades-long mainline routes.

But not this year....WN has been pretty clear about that.

Jim

Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Thu Sep 19, 2002 1:22 pm

Jim,

I think WN has decided NOT to start any service to COS because it would devestate United Airlines. I think there is a gentlemen's agreement of sorts in place between WN and UA for WN to not start service to COS until UA's financial situation improves.
 
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lindy field
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 1:59 am

Sorry for another question, but what is Southwest's current delivery schedule like? I know that they parked a number of their newest 73Gs in the last year, but I believe they've since returned them to service. Are they taking on new planes?
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 2:14 am

Actually, I expect WN will remain conservative and not add that many cities in the next few years.

Even WN has stated that yields are really softening for longer than they had expected. WN also faces a tougher task when competing against BK airlines. U is already BK and has gotten massive labor concessions and UAL may not be too far behind. Facing multiple BK carriers plus some competition from other low-fare carriers (ATA has been nudging into a few WN markets) will likely lead WN to remain on the conservative side.

Adding new cities is expensive and can drain cash in the short term. Notice how both FRNT and ATA have slipped into the red partially because they have been expanding so rapidly. AAI has fared better because they've used travel banks to mitigate much of the start-up costs. Much cheaper for WN to connect the dots for now...there are tons of possibilities.

As for new markets, the number of cities for WN is far from bottomless. Assuming WN sticks to its current model (avoiding congested hubs), I only see about 15-20 more cities that would support WN in the next ten years. Of course, if a major carrier does collapse that might open up some new possibilities.

 
AmtrakGuy
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 3:37 am

Jim,

I've been reading what you have said in many posts. I can't help it, but I think you're very angry about about how the "Big Cartels" screwed the upstate cities like SYC and your hometown ROC. While I can understand you're angry about paying big bucks in the past, it can get a bit tiresome reading about your comments. I don't know how other feels about it but for me, if the big cartels are getting business, then they are getting business. But, it just a matter of times before the low cost carriers will flies into all cities and everybody will have a choice. It seems that you expected Southwest, AirTrans, and other low cost carriers to fly in all cities by now but that isn't gotta happened. It will takes time.

Now, the big cartels are struggling and I have friends working there. They are worried they may lose jobs (so am I at Amtrak). But I get the sense you don't care about people losing job and you expect all the employees to be working at minimum wage while you can fly anywhere at a cost that you want it to be. That isn't gotta happened.

Maybe we should be focusing on getting Southwest, Air Trans, or any low cost carriers to start flying into National Airport.

Dave
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 5:42 am

Sorry for another question, but what is Southwest's current delivery schedule like? I know that they parked a number of their newest 73Gs in the last year, but I believe they've since returned them to service. Are they taking on new planes?

There was a post on the Yahoo board yesterday (from someone who generally has accurate information) about WN's parked jets in the Mojave Desert. His post is quoting a third party:

Per the guys out at Mohave:

<<<< Departures yesterday were:

SWA N426WN, going into service. A group of SWA execs and the bankers who helped do the creative financing that parked the planes but kept all the WN folks employed were here for a show-and-tell and celebratory ceremony. For you WN folks, I have to say you've got some great people at the helm. I had a nice long and enjoyable chat with Laura Simmons and Kim Guehlstorf. The plane was all spit-shined and set up in the hangar, and after all the festivities, the VIPs boarded the plane, the hangar doors were opened and it was towed out onto the ramp for departure, all to the music from "Voyager". Just as they were getting ready to start engines, the Antonov AN124 UR-82072 was taxiing out for departure, to the delight of all. Photos from the festivities will be on the Avtel site in the next couple of days.

There is now only one SWA 737-7H4 left here, N427WN, and it's due to go out the middle of next month, and supposedly, the WN folks will be bringing a big Texas BBQ in for all the Avtel folks, to celebrate.<<<<

LoneStarMike

 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 7:50 am

Jim, I've been reading what you have said in many posts. I can't help it, but I think you're very angry about about how the "Big Cartels" screwed the upstate cities like SYC and your hometown ROC.

What on earth have I said that could give you that impression?  Smile

As a close school teacher friend puts it, the passionate get society's dirty work done. Airline management and unions are very passionate about keeping fares as high as possible, unnecessarily high, at the expense of consumers and local economies. Years of unjustly high fares at home at ROC have made me--along with all of our elected officials--passionate about denouncing the racket. The small and medium-size markets of this country don't have a well-funded management or union, to represent them. Thus, occasionally obsessive people like myself speak up for them. And we will continue to do so until broad-scale, long-lasting change occurs.

While I can understand you're angry about paying big bucks in the past, it can get a bit tiresome reading about your comments.

I'm sorry you feel that way, but the need to represent the consumer and community viewpoint remains. The Cartel has thoroughly earned our wrath, and will continue to enjoy it until a lot more change occurs.

I don't know how other feels about it but for me, if the big cartels are getting business, then they are getting business. But, it just a matter of times before the low cost carriers will flies into all cities and everybody will have a choice. It seems that you expected Southwest, AirTrans, and other low cost carriers to fly in all cities by now but that isn't gotta happened. It will takes time.

I'm not sure where you get that idea. I've written consistently that conservative growth is a key element of the financial success of low-fare carriers. The post 9/11 environment has opened new opportunities, and AirTran in particular has taken them. But still, you don't see *any* low-fare carrier--not even JetBlue--growing helter skelter the way People Express did in the 1980's.

Now, the big cartels are struggling and I have friends working there. They are worried they may lose jobs (so am I at Amtrak). But I get the sense you don't care about people losing job and you expect all the employees to be working at minimum wage while you can fly anywhere at a cost that you want it to be. That isn't gotta happened.

Unfortunately, I don't always make clear that I do care about the disruptions involved in the industry's changes. Losing a job is never fun, I know all about it, and about the fear of not being able to pay bills. But I firmly believe that all will be better off, and enjoy more jobs, in a reorganized industry that does not rely on exceptionally high fares to prop up 12-cent CASM's in order to be profitable.

As for "minimum wage..." that's a lie spread by Cartel unions. Southwest pays its people well, as is well known. It simply expects more work from them, and cross trains them as to be more valuable and productive in the organization. Why should WN hire a full baggage crew to service three flights, and play poker the rest of the day, when the same crew, on the same salaries, can service 10 flights? (That some cities, like ROC, have gotten into the baggage handling business to help new carriers, is another issue. But the point remains the same).

The idea that communities and consumer advocates want to see airline employees starving is a *lie* propagated by people with an interest in preserving the status quo.

Maybe we should be focusing on getting Southwest, Air Trans, or any low cost carriers to start flying into National Airport. Dave

Absolutely. I don't think WN would fly there, though, would cannibalize BWI. Both AirTran and JetBlue have expressed interest in DCA, though the last remarks to this effect (at least that I have seen) were before 9/11, and the current developments of these airlines in the DC area. As I said, wouldn't a B6 DCA station cannibalize IAD? Unless....B6 were to launch DCA-JFK, which pick a fight with the Cartel shuttles, and that (it seems to me) would go against B6's grain.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
L-188
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 5:47 pm

Yep, I think SW would do pretty well against AS on a SEA-ANC run. Maybe we could talk them into some other legs.
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aa777flyer
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Fri Sep 20, 2002 11:10 pm

Ray Chuang Wote-

I think WN has decided NOT to start any service to COS because it would devestate United Airlines. I think there is a gentlemen's agreement of sorts in place between WN and UA for WN to not start service to COS until UA's financial situation improves.

Actually I dont think UA's current financial situation has ANYTHING to do with that. If I remember correctly WN did serve the old Stapleton for a short period and there were some "politics" that came into play that is why WN pulled out and Herb vowed that WN will never return to Colorado......

Maybe some long time WN employees could shed some more light...
The TSA was created to make the post office look efficient!
 
fpdonald
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Sat Sep 21, 2002 1:30 am

From Today@SWA dated Wednesday September 18, 2002

"DAL: Southwest has taken delivery of two additional Boeing 737-700s, bringing our fleet total to 370 aircraft. The new jets–N425LV and N426WN–were delivered on September 5 and 16, respectively, and are the final two deliveries scheduled for the year."
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Sat Sep 21, 2002 3:31 am

Actually I dont think UA's current financial situation has ANYTHING to do with that. If I remember correctly WN did serve the old Stapleton for a short period and there were some "politics" that came into play that is why WN pulled out and Herb vowed that WN will never return to Colorado......Maybe some long time WN employees could shed some more light...

Southwest pulled out of Stapleton, if I remember correctly, because of weather issues. Stapleton had close-together runways, and its capacity dropped by half in bad weather. This situation snarled the airport enough to mess up Southwest's turnaround times, so WN bailed.

It's hard to imagine Southwest staying out of a whole state because of a "gentleman's agreement" with any Cartel carrier. It took a law to handcuff them at DAL, and Jim Parker has made clear that he is quite open to challenging that law. Kelleher only agreed not to challenge the Wright Amendment because he knew he could not successfully fight it. That wise step bought Southwest important political breathing room during its earlier, and more vulnerable years. Now WN is politically powerful, and Dick Armey (the WA's post-Wright House capo) leaves Congress next year.

Ray, what evidence do you have that there's "gentleman's agreement" between UA and WN regarding Colorado? A WN station at COS could probably support 20 flights, let alone 10, on day one. Southwest has never been known to take the tender financial sensibilities of Cartel carriers into consideration in its marketing decisions. WN might avoid fights it thinks costly. But the idea of protecting a vulnerable Cartel carrier's cost structure is, to say the least, against WN's grain.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
deltairlines
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Sat Sep 21, 2002 9:27 am

Surprised no one has mentioned MHT. MHT is one of the top stations in Southwest's route system, despite being a terminal station only. The one reason Southwest is constrained to its 18 daily flights is that they only have two gates at MHT, but they should be getting one or two more in a year's time. This will open up more flights as they will have a place to go. Another factor is MHT's soon to be 9000' ft runway, which will be suitable for trans-cons/PHX/LAS. MHT's current runway is 7000', which can be too short as certain times for a fully loaded 737 to take off for the West Coast. However, a 9000' will do. This is also partially the reason why we see WN only going to PHX and LAS from PVD; the airport can't support year-round LAX/OAK flights.

Jeff
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Sat Sep 21, 2002 11:16 am

Though not a transcon per say, I think MSY-SEA would be a great route, perhaps originating in FLL or MCO. If they add a SEA nonstop from MSY, it would give WN 61 daily departures from the Big Easy. While I'm on the subject, why the hell haven't we seen MSY-MDW nonstops yet? They can do MDW-JAN/BHM/LIT...but no MSY? Weird, to say the least.
 
scottysair
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Sat Sep 21, 2002 11:36 am

MSYtristar,

It was right one as for the SWA timetable as for myself and these is no nonstop from MDW-MSY flight as for itself. And it might will have a chance as for the future by the new nonstop by the anytime soon. I hope. If they are made on the this new routes by SWA, ok? Well, goodnight!

DeltAirlines,

I actually that were there into MHT as for the 4th times there. That as for the my visits see my brother there. And I'm love into MHT there and it was very beautiful place and nice cold weather. I did already were flew nonstop from FLL-MHT as for last year of December 2001. It was such wonderful flight to MHT and I did seen with the moon up and it was on the my plane way to MHT. You didn't know that one as for before. I did like that!!!  Big thumbs up Well, goodnight!
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Sat Sep 21, 2002 12:08 pm

Thanks for sticking up for us in MHT, Delta! I also understand that MHT is often at or near the top of the 'load factor' list of all WN stations. The new runway will be 9,200', which is just what we'll need for at least LAS/PHX service. California flights may be a stretch--not from an operational standpoint, but from a business point of view for WN. They are being VERY careful about launching true transcon flights, and good for them! The landscape is littered with airlines that expanded too far, too fast.

In any event, the addition of 4 new gates up here will re-arrange the way the airlines line up. If you're familiar with little MHT, WN will likely occupy the whole B side of the terminal...three to four gates in all. We have several overnighting jets here, and I think WN has two or three (in addition to the ones at their present two gates). So, the additional gates by mid next year will coincide perfectly with the timing of Runway 17/35 opening up full-length at 9,200 feet. THEN we'll see what kind of plans WN has for MHT.

Be skeptical if you want, but the WN MHT Station Manager himself told me that they were targeting about 45 flights here. Laugh if you want, but those 'laughers' would have been rolling on the floor if anyone suggested in 1997 or 1996 that the carrier would eventually serve Manchester at all! And here we are with the top spot in terms of system-wide load factor!
 
afitch7881
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RE: Potential Future Transcon Routes For Southwest

Mon Sep 23, 2002 6:11 am

I think with AA and UA pulling out of the BDL to west coast markets, BDL will see SW expand into those cities once the terminal expansion is done at BDL. When the new terminal is complete SW has stated interest for one additional gate which would increase the number of departures to well over 20. I could see the following.


BDL-BWI 8X
BDL-MCO 3X
BDL-MDW 3X
BDL-BNA 2X
BDL-TPA 2X
BDL-MCI 1X
BDL-PHX 1X
BDL-LAX 1X

More in the future-- BDL-OAK faster than BDL-SAN (Strong market)