From Aircraft value news
"At 20 years of age, even a RB211 powered B747-200B, should enjoy values
in excess of $6 million, which still represents a hefty depreciation profile.
Even prior to Sept. 11, 2001, values of such aircraft were depressed. The reason
for the rapid depreciation of the larger older widebodies lies with a much more
limited operator base, a changing market structure, increased emphasis on
streamlining the fleet, initial quantity discounts, cost of reconfiguration, and
availability of more modern equipment.
Values of the B747-400 now face a potentially similar fate. Values of the
B747-400 have already experienced a significant fall in recent years as the end
of production looms and because of a market structure that increasingly favors
The market for the B747-400s has also reached a certain level of
maturity. Values of -400s have therefore fallen by some 30 percent within a
period of just under two years. The problems of the industry have increased
availability and this will prove difficult to dissipate in today's market.
While there is the prospect of improvement in traffic in the coming
years, the arrival of the A380 will provide the opportunity for replacement of
the B747-400. As of 2007, the age profile of the B747-400 will not be dissimilar
to that of the beleaguered B747-200B suggesting that values of the former will
face similar difficulties that the latter now faces. "