deltadude8
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2000 12:09 am

Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Sun Dec 01, 2002 11:49 pm

I still can't believe the effect Sept. 11th has had on the airline industry...It shocks me to this day...

Just as like kind of my own little poll or whatever you want to call it...

Which airlines in the U.S. are going to survive this drought or such?
Or which airlines will survive and which ones will not?
Sorry for no other than American airlines I propose for someone else to conduct one also...

So...Do you think ________ will survive or go down? (this is what I think, but I hope for others sakes that I am wrong)

United- GO DOWN
American- SURVIVE
Delta- (I love you delta but...) GO DOWN
Continental- SURVIVE
US Air- GO DOWN
Southwest- SURVIVE
Jet Blue- GO DOWN-(I don't know why)

So What do you think?
 
deltadude8
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2000 12:09 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Sun Dec 01, 2002 11:50 pm

SORRY I FORGOT NW

Northwest- SURVIVE
 
Guest

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Sun Dec 01, 2002 11:53 pm

For my opinion, see one of the few hundred other threads on the exact same subject from the last six months.
 
haveric
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Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 9:31 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Sun Dec 01, 2002 11:59 pm

There is no airline "USair." The airline changed its name to US Airways at least six years ago...

 
deltairlines
Posts: 6874
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:00 am

American - Survive - the death of UA's ORD operation bolsters AA
United - "You are the weakest link, good bye"
Delta - Survive, the DL/CO/NW deal will only make them stronger, and them being a large point-to-point carrier only helps them
Northwest - Survive (codeshare will help them get access to the Southeast)
Continental - Survive (same reason as NW)
US Airways - "You are the weakest link, good bye"
Southwest - Survive - if you can make a profit in today's environment, then why won't you survive?
Alaska - Survive, but might join a major codeshare deal
America West - Jury's out
JetBlue - Jury's Out, this could depend on how the DL LCC does, as well as their rapid expansion (Midway expanded rapidly using large, new 737-700s, and now look where they are)
AirTran - Will most likely survive, as the Southeast is growing.

Jeff
 
FlagshipAZ
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:12 am

My predictions...
Survivors (Big 5) American, Continental, Delta, Northwest & United.
Survivors (Middle 5) AirTran, Alaska, Frontier, JetBlue & Southwest.
Needs Life Support (Bottom 2) America West & US Airways.
Again, just my 2 cents worth. Regards.
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." --Ben Franklin
 
flyboy36y
Posts: 2897
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:50 am

Haveric,


Well Aren't You the MASTER of the OBVIOUS

Hey, isn't National Airport now Reagan?? Isn't Newar now Newark Libery???
I think the guy knows what the airline is, but US Air is easier to write than cumbersome US Airways.
 
ybacpa
Posts: 1080
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 5:39 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 1:00 am

IMHO:
Survivor:
American

Survivors, but only with a major codeshare / acquisition to fix network weaknesses:
Continental, Delta, Northwest

Might survive, but will be significantly different than today:
United, Southwest (the competition just can't ignore their profits forever), Airtran, Jetblue

As they said on SNL, Buh-Bye:
America West, US Airways


As an aside, if US Airways and America West ever linked up, there might actually be a chance...
SkyTeam: The alliance for third rate airlines finally getting their act together!
 
Noise
Posts: 2011
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 1:01 am

Guys, since United is soooo big, do you think the U.S. Gov't will even let it go down? I doubt it.
 
HlywdCatft
Posts: 5232
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 1:01 am

United will survive- Bush will give them a big bailout. Remember how Reagan saved the Chrysler Cooporation in the 80s. United will only be a shell of what it once was- possibly selling its Pacific ops to another airline and closing a couple of hubs and retiring aircraft and defering new orders. Hubs in danger are SFO (because Pacific ops would be gone) and yes Denver. If not Denver, then ORD, but more likely ORD would be kept open becuase it is their main hub. UA keeps IAD open for European ops. When the problems clear in a few years, they will merge with USAirways. I imagine the fleet looking like this- A319, A320, 752, 763, 772

AA will survive, but will prolly close STL or make it just an American Eagle hub with their ERJs. AA will also get smaller. They will keep their South American routes which seem to be the least affected International routes since Sept 11. Once problems are thru and airline is profitable again
Fleet in 10 years- 736,73G,738, 752, 763, 764, 772 (with MD80s on way out)
-
Delta- Will survive- in about 5-6 years Delta, Continental and Northwest will merge into a giant airline called Skyteam with hubs in IAH, ATL, DTW, MSP and EWR. SLC and CVG will be important RJ bases flying a mix of ERJs and CRJs of different sizes. DFW and CLE operations will be ceased. DTW will be the main gateway to Asia, ATL to South America and carribean, HOU to Central America and Mex, EWR to Europe. MSP will be an important domestic hub.

Fleet- 736, 73G, 738, 739, 744, 752, 762, 763, 764, 772 (NW Airbus A319 and A320s sold to Jet Blue, United and Frontier)(The A330s sold to Boeing for more 772s) since they are the oddball type for the three airlines.

USAirways- on life support, if they survive this downturn they will be gobbled up by United if United pulls out and becomes profitable again

A319, A320, A321, A330

America West- bye bye

Southwest- Definitely the best shape of all after this downturn buys 736s to replace the 735s- Fleet 736, 73G

Jet Blue- Works out great- Buys used A319s and 320s from Northwest after Northwest Joins Skyteam Air.

Fleet- A319, A320

Frontier- If United closes DEN hub, Frontier could do very well unless another airline moves in. Frontier expands majorly due to demand from people of Denver, opens another hub perhaps in MCI- fleet A318, A319, A320

Another Scenario I see happening in the future is that there will be no more major airlines, but instead these Giant alliances. We may just see Skyteam, Star and One World. Think about it, these alliances were pretty much unheard of 10 years ago, so think about 10 years from now.
 
Guest

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 2:24 am

DEN?!?! United wouldn't shut down DEN if they were on their death bed. It is extremely profitable for them.
UAL would remain a European gateway at IAD,Chicago would remain a domestic and European base, and DEN would remain their main domestic transfer point.
The government simply will not let those three merge into one giant airline...it just won't happen. ( over 1000 planes??) I think maybe NW and CO could possibly merge leaving MSP, DTW, IAH, and EWR. MEM is significantly downsized and CLE is just flat out stopped.
AA- They keep DFW, ORD, and MIA at their current size. STL is downsized until profitablity. Once profitable, they begin adding flights back to STL. Remember, when AA was profitable they always wanted another midwestern hub. I think that AA's strategy could work filtering all the low yield through STL, and all of the O& D through DFW, and ORD.
HP-May manage to survive, who knows
Southwest-Obviously survives and remains strong, continues building at BWI and PHX
AS-Will get out of this okay, continuing to expand throughout the mainland
F9-Won't start a hub at MCI due to the poor terminal layout that Kansas City remains devoted too. They claim its a "drive to your gate experience". Maybe a small focus city with 5 or 6 cities. MCI really is underserved, and could use a few flights too cities that NJ used to serve.
 
tzsfo
Posts: 202
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 2:36 am

Here are my predictions -

American - Survive, albeit smaller (read=more efficient)
UAL - Survive, much much smaller
Southwest - Like was said before....If you can pull a profit now you can pull a profit anytime
Delta - um bye bye
Continental, Alaska, Northwest - All Survivors - but they have to do it as some sort of alliance and stick to the routes they are good at. Alaska - West coast and AK...NW - Midwest to the coasts ....CO- the south as well as the east coast
Jetblue - Bye bye - I think they are a "fad"....Their hipness will diminish and their maintenance and labor costs will rise....Bye bye low CASM
America West - Survive
ATA - Survive.....How come everybody forgets about TZ?
US Airways -Foregone conclusion....Bye bye
It takes nerves of steel to stay neurotic. — Herb Kelleher
 
artsyman
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 3:20 am

are you guys smoking crack ? Gordon Bethune 2002

Delta isnt going anywhere, while I can't stand them, they are far in the way in the best position of the top 6. In actual reality, the order of stability would look like this (Unstable at the top)

US airways - at the top because they have actually filed Chapt 11

United - Only second because they have not yet filed, but are actually in
bigger trouble than US airways

AA - The cash burn at AA is staggering at the moment, and while they don't
seem to be at panic stations, it is getting extremely close to that point.

NW - Seems to be coping quite well, old fleet, will eventually incur the costs
that buying a new fleet takes on, but I have faith in them pulling
through.

CO - Lower cost structure, newer planes (less maintenance), good service. (People talk alot about their debt, but it isnt a problem at the moment, and as of this month, still have 1.3 billion in cash, and 1 billion in unencumbered assets, own 53% Expressjet (500m-1b) etc. With the low cash burn that they have, they should be fine

Delta - Good position for growth, reasonable cash balance, good asset base,
good reputation etc.


Jeremy
 
blink182
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 4:36 am

If Delta seems so financially fit, why are they cutting FA bases? I know IAH and a few other cities are being cut altogether, with DFW taking a huge hit. Delta, Continental, and Northwest are making an alliance, if they were making profits and were in good shape, they wouldn't need the alliance unless the single goal was to eliminate other carriers.

United will make it if they can get a loan from the US Government and downsize, however, it looks as if they probably won't get that loan, so they could go under, they should try and see if DIA will lower the landing fees, I think DEN has fairly high landing fees.

American will make it if United goes under, which allows them a much bigger market in Chicago. American already hubs at ORD, and they would love to take over United's marketshare to solidify ChicAAgo.Also, downsize the STL hub and go back to it once profitability is reached. AA does not need 3 midwestern hubs in times like this. DFW and ORD should be the main focus in the midwest, keep a strong Eagle presence in STL though. Axing a few DFW flights wouldn't hurt either, mainly those of which are not performing very strongly. Keep the rolling hub strategy in place, it might be worth introducing at another hub too, particularly MIA. Strengthening alliance with Alaska doesn't hurt either.

blink

Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
 
BA
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 4:45 am

Shutting down DEN will be the LAST and FINAL resort for UA.

United is not going to shut down it's highest yielding hub with the highest load factor.

Yes, DEN does have high landing fees, but that's not stopping UA at the moment.

As long as DEN continues to perform for UA as it is now, it's not going anywhere. The only way United would drop the DEN hub is if United shuts down completely like Eastern and Pan Am. Which I hope will not happen.

From the announced flight attendant layoffs, DEN is seeing the fewest. Not to mention that the DEN schedule is only being downsized slightly for next year while the other hubs are seeing more flight reductions.

Like I said, DEN is currently United's highest yielding hub and with the highest load factor.

This is due to the fact that there is not much competition in DEN and United makes up nearly 60% of the market share in DEN. That's not the case for ORD, SFO, LAX, IAD which have considerable competition.

The only threat to UA in DEN is Frontier which is hurting at the moment. Frontier is only a small problem.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
BA
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 4:48 am

One more thing to add.

I don't see United shutting down any of it's main hubs. The main hubs are ORD, DEN, SFO, LAX, and IAD.

What I DO see happening is United shutting down it's "mini" hubs. This includes SEA and MIA. The costs for maintaining a crew base for a few flights isn't worth it.

If United needs to resort to shutting down a main hub, I think it will be 1 of the west coast hubs, most likely LAX. This will allow United to focus it's Pacific flights out of SFO and maintaining 1 hub for the Pacific flights. IAD coudl see a significant downsize aswell in terms of domestic service and seeing several routes go to United Express.

That's what I see. But I don't think ANY of United's main hubs will be shut down. They will be downsized, some more than others. One thing is for sure, DEN will see the least downsize if it continues to perform as it does right now.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
BA
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 5:10 am

Minor correct, SFO is UA's highest yielding hub. However DEN is still a better performer due to capacity UA handles every day.

Here is the list of United's best performers in order:

1) DEN
2) SFO
3) LAX
4) ORD
5) IAD

SFO and DEN are very close.

What I am not 100% sure is between LAX and ORD. It could be the opposite, ORD being #3, and LAX being #4. If someone could clarify, that would be great.

The rest is accurate.

IAD has never been a hot performer for UA which is why over the years many routes have been taken over by United Express. It's had good performance on it's European routes however.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
artsyman
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 5:12 am

if they were making profits and were in good shape, they wouldn't need the alliance unless the single goal was to eliminate other carriers.


I didnt say everything is rosey, I said that they are in the best shape. All of them are bleeding, and they are getting rid of the things that don't make sense to keep. If we are using actual losses as our gauge, then Continental is kicking everyones butt, however there is more to it than that.

Jeremy
 
Guest

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 5:15 am

AA: downsizing STL until it becomes the type of hub CLE is. Most of LAX regional ops going there.

UA: slowly decreasing IAD with US alliance. Mostly ACA and transcons. Trip through a bankruptcy court will lower costs.

DL: Totally collapses under the mighty AirTran by next year Big grin. Seriously, I think that they will eventually close DFW, and build up ATL, with slight downsizing at CVG. Tad more buildup of SLC if CO/NW code-share agreement goes through, as that is the only Skyteam hub west of MSP. Fresh Air taking over in more low-yield markets, leaving costs low, although there will be more unionization at both entities. Buys out CO in Chapter 11.

NW: Not much happening but they will begin to lower costs and take on a fresh, slightly more JBLU image.

CO: Skirmish with the pilots union and FFers. Dance in Chapter 11, gets taken over by DL. CLE dismantled, but IAH and EWR kept the same.

US: Will stay in some form or another for awhile, slowly going down. PHL to be big hub, with smaller ops at CLT and PIT. DCA will stay the same. Merges with UA.

WN: Keeps growing, adds longer routes, adds the 738/9.

HP: Will survive with the gov't loan. Possible code-share with AirTran.

AS: Add transcons and longer flights, will thrive as a full-service carrier.

TZ: Will one day have to face off with WN in MDW, possibly bloody. Will survive, though. C8 will get RJs.

FL: Code-share with HP. Continue growing at 20%/year until it comes back and smacks them in the face, with lower growth after that.

B6: Survivor, but don't expect double digit profit margins every quarter as they expand.
 
bucky707
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 5:30 am

"If Delta seems so financially fit, why are they cutting FA bases? I know IAH and a few other cities are being cut altogether, with DFW taking a huge hit. Delta, Continental, and Northwest are making an alliance, if they were making profits and were in good shape, they wouldn't need the alliance unless the single goal was to eliminate other carriers"

The FA bases DAL is closing should have been closed long ago. It only makes sense to get rid of these small bases and consolodate them into the bigger bases. The DFW hub is the worst performing hub at DAL. Look for it to downsize in mainline flights to about 50-60 a day, but increase drastically in regional jet flights. Using the RJ, Delta is doing a good job of skimming passengers away from AA. As far as the alliance, it is strictly a competitive responce to the USA-UAL alliance. Without an alliance, DAL would loose some passengers to the USA-UAL alliance. Not much, but at this point every passenger counts. I don't see a merger between DAL, CAL and NWA, but I think the alliance will continue long term. It will be approved by the government, although I suspect there will have to be some changes to the current proposal.
 
ba319-131
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 5:42 am

At this moment it time,US is the safest of the lot!

Its in C11,and at the moment thats the safest place to be.

None of the airlines will go under.Some will merge,perhaps CO/NW or CO/DL,the other will down size their operations to a more realistic level.

WN and B6 will get bigger.

Expect WN to operate 738's and B6 A321's in the future.

Just my opinion.

Rgds

BA319-131
111,732,3,4,5,7,8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312.313,319,320,321,332,333
 
azjubilee
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 6:05 am

Deltaairlines - the southeast is not only comprised of ATL you know. FYI - NW has a hub in MEM and maintains a significant presence in the south - infact probably the #2 presence - far ahead of what Air Tran offers.

Lowfairair - you say NW sill START cutting costs? They started cutting costs like any good business would have in March 2001. That was before 9/11. In fact NW is now going through phase 5 of cost cutting. They've identified over a billion dollars in annualized cost cutting so far. I think some of the other airlines that are just getting around to it are just a little behind the power curve.



AZJ
 
Guest

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 7:01 am

azjubilee: sorry, I meant continue to cut costs.

One thing for every airline out there: The gap in employee salaries out there will become more realistic between newbie in express ops and a 30 yr. senior person at mainline. Pilot salaries will lower themselves, with salaries not topping out at 300k every year(before future inflation), but on the other side of the equation, RJ FOs won't be making such low wages either.
 
prosa
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 7:24 am

My fearless guess is that all the carriers mentioned so far in this thread will survive, with the possible exception of US. Let's not forget that the airline business is one of the most cyclical businesses around. Right now, there's a down cycle, but it won't last forever. US is probably too far gone to survive, but I'm reasonably sure that all the others will, yes including UA. Which isn't to say that there won't be some significant changes along the way, for example AA's downsizing its STL hub and DL's doing the same at DFW.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
azjubilee
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 10:00 am

How are pilot salaries going to lower themselves? The only way is through concessions and not every airline is taking them. I hope you're right when it comes to bridging the gap between the wages of the top and bottom. With each new regional airline contract - the aim is to better the previous one. By doing that we'll bring wages to where they should be. But as we do this we have to corporate greed trying to outsource jobs, union bust and whipsaw companies against each other to maintain the low cost sweat shop like advantage the regionals have over the mainline carriers.


AZJ
 
tpowaleny
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 10:56 am

I believe, for various reasons the following will occur:

Delta: Remains the same
United: Dramatically downsizes, but does survive...
US Airways: Will come out of chapter 11 but is already dramatically downsized, becomes even more of the so-called "glorified regional."
American: St. Louis will remain a hub contrary to many other people's belief, airline will continue to cut costs.
Northwest/Continental: I forsee strong growth and improvement

Tim
 
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STT757
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 11:18 am

If the economy does not turn around by the 4th Quarter of 2003 I think this is what the field will look like.

U gone, UAL in bankruptcy or being liquidated

AA getting lean, axing lots of jobs and focusing on DFW, MIA, LGA/JFK and if UAL goes chapter 11 (or 7) ORD also. STL is gone.

DL axing some more jobs but not shrinking too much, more RJ flying in place of big jets in DFW and SLC. And more fiddling with low fare concepts.

NWA axing some jobs but probably not too many, MEM loses more "big" jet flights in favor of more Props/RJs.

CO closing CLE, focuses more on international flying from EWR and IAH.

And if things still look bad by Summer 2004 look for DL and CO to merge, and NWA and AA.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:33 pm

Here is the obvious thing: UA will NOT go into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Chapter 11 maybe, but not Chapter 7.

The reason is simple: UA has the extremely lucrative slots at NRT and LHR.

I see the following happening to UA:

1. 737-200/300/500 fleet is sold off.
2. Oldest 757-200's are sold off.
3. 747-400 fleet reduced to 22-26 planes, used exclusively for transpacific flying from SFO and LAX.
4. 767-200 fleet is retired and/or sold off.
5. 767-300(ER) fleet kept and reassigned for USA transcon and USA mainland-Hawaii service.
6. 777-200ER fleet to stay and possibly get major cabin upgrades. As UA returns to profitability more 772ER's will be bought.
7. A319/A320 fleet to stay.
8. UA merges with US. UA will take over US' A320 Family (A319/A320/A321) fleet completely, with other US planes retired or sold off.
9. UA will phase out South American service and phase out any routes that are duplicated with US.
10. US' hub at PIT and PHL are sold off. UA will take over CLT hub and make it a primary hub for US Southeast.
11. UA will phase out three-class service and replace it with improved Business and Economy class service on most flights. All A319's and many A320's will be converted to all-Economy seating with seating pitch as least as good as the WN 737 fleet (33.6 to 34 inch pitch).
12. UA will sell of part of US' Northeast Shuttle service to AA.
 
gigneil
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:51 pm

See I've been thinking a lot of the same thing. The UA-US idea wasn't horrible the first time, I thought. They've got very complimentary networks. Even fleets to an extent although US A320s are CFMI powered. The other US widebodies are Pratt Powered so that'd make UA happy. I think if they both get their act together now in Chap 11, a merger of the two would make a great end company.

I never understood why the US gov't approved AA and TW but not US and UA. I'm sure someone here will fill me in shortly.

When US and UA were going to merge the first time, they expanded PHL flying quite a bit in their plans, even with increased flying at IAD and CLT.

The Caribbean market from CLT would be huge for UA. Its obviously doing great for US.

They'd ditch DCA to CO or DL... both of those airlines offered to buy it during the "DC Air" nonsense. I'd love to see DL get it.

And I don't think seeing UA sell the Shuttle... the Shuttle, if I'm not mistaken, is both incredibly lucrative as well as a coveted service. DL and US raced each other for service upgrades a few years back and it would suck to see that service go to AA.

Plus... UA and DL do what I think more carriers should do (hello, Qantas, Virgin Blue, SQ Australia, you listening?). They offer competing types on a very competitive service as a differentiator. If UA flew the service they'd keep the Airbusen... if AA got it they'd switch it to 738s. I'd cry. It'd reduce a very interesting competitive market to just more boring Boeing homogeny.

Anyway, this would be the most exciting outcome in my mind.

N
 
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STT757
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:52 pm

"UA will NOT go into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Chapter 11 maybe, but not Chapter 7.

The reason is simple: UA has the extremely lucrative slots at NRT and LHR."

Im sure folks said the same exact thing about Pan Am.

Because UAL does have such valuable assets there will be alot of pressure from creditors to sell those "lucrative" assets, the creditors could care less about UAL's long term survival. They just want their money, and if UAL is worth more in pieces than it is whole that is a major concern should they file for bankruptcy.

Which is why they are trying so hard to avoid it, to Tiltons credit although I feel the damage has been done.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
gigneil
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Mon Dec 02, 2002 1:07 pm

Sorry, I meant to say "US and DL do what I think more carriers should do..."

N
 
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coronado
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RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 1:52 pm

People forget how fast a 3% loss can change to a 3% profit in the airline industry. Witness British Airways profits so far this year. Changes from dire losses to reasonable profits totally come down to the extra 5 passengers a flight, or alternatively adjusting your capacity to the demand.

Is there too much capacity in the US at present, I think this will be remedied quickly by capacity cutbacks by the ones in the biggest financial problems: US Airways--they will emerge from bankruptcy about 35% smaller; United --with or without actual Chapter 11, it wil shrink 25% or more; American will shrink 15% or more--just retiring the F100's does that. The ones not loosing as much money such as CO and NW will hold steady or grow slightly. DL will shed some capacity as it retires its MD-11's and start mothballing its MD-80's.


Oppotunities? Pittsburgh, Denver, SFO, O'hare. It will be interesting to see who puts some emphasis into those locations--perhaps as ''enhanced focus cities?'' while they feel them out?
The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
 
AndrewAir
Posts: 337
Joined: Sun Jul 14, 2002 2:08 pm

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Mon Dec 02, 2002 2:14 pm

Some how I think United will survive, I hope so. Just today on the news it said that flight attendants of United have voted for wage cuts to help United. So vary sad.  Crying

Andrew
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Mon Dec 02, 2002 2:18 pm

The Saturday Denver Post's big headline was "UAL ON EDGE" in like 76 point type.

There was a very interesting feature on how United became the dominant carrier at DEN and the demise of CO.

A lot of comparisons between the two. Its shocking to see the differences too. When CO went bankrupt in 1991, it had 4.8 billion in assets. UA right now has some 28 billion.

I think people sometimes don't realize just how much bigger UA is really than all the other airlines in terms of actual size.

N
 
Guest

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 9:39 pm

Coronado: It's more like a 10-15% negative margin, not 3%.

azjubilee: Not taking concessions now doesn't mean it'll happen in the future. If UAL gets ALPA to take a large wage cut at the top means that many other carriers will get their unions to do the same as well.
 
MD88Captain
Posts: 1224
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 9:50 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Mon Dec 02, 2002 11:01 pm

Coronado. DAL is not mothballing any MD80 seires jets. None. And no MD90's either. The md11's are going away except for 3 and the 727 will be gone in 2003.

Everyone should understand that those "assests" of UAL are always quoted at a very inflated value. It may be replacement value or book value or whatever. But the true value of an assest is what it can be sold for. You may think that your assest is worth 1 billion $, but if the highest bid is 100 million then you have a 100 Million $ assest. The airline industry is totally cash strapped. A few airlines have cash (CAL & DAL) and a few have credit available (DAL) but not all that much.

Comments like UAL has $28 billion is assests ignore that no one has $28 billion to buy those assests. Bankruptcies are often fire sales and considering the state of the industry I think any UAL assests sold off in Chapter 11 will go for way below book value. And a Chapter 7 (if UAL fails in reorganization) will go the fire sale route of EAL, TWA, & PAA.
 
AA717driver
Posts: 1502
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2002 8:27 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 1:15 am

MD88--Why is DAL only keeping 3 MD11's? Is it just the drawdown schedule or is it a specific reason?

Also, with other airlines doing their best to reduce the number of types of airplanes, why is the MD90 still around? Do they do something the -88's can't?
Not trashing either airplane--I love seeing the 90's around the system.TC
FL450, M.85
 
AA767400
Posts: 1889
Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2001 2:04 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 1:33 am

STT757

AA to merge with NW? By summer of 2004?
your outlook is very dramatic, to say the least.
"The low fares airline."
 
MD88Captain
Posts: 1224
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 9:50 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 1:38 am

The 3 MD11's are being kept to service ATL-NRT, because DAL management didn't buy crew rest facilities for the 777. And the MD90's are being kept because they are reliable, fairly new, and basically do a good job. The capacity will be reduced by removing the 727.
 
Ryefly
Posts: 1324
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2000 7:56 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Tue Dec 03, 2002 4:44 am

My prediction of the U.S. Airline industry for the coming 10 years are as follows...

American Airlines- Remains much the same as it is today. Minor cut backs to over crowded hubs. The use of larger regional jets will play a role. American will retire the A300 and older 767's for 767-NG if available and 777's. The 777-300 may join the 777-200 fleet also. The MD-80 fleet will still be around but drastically smaller. It will be phased out by larger regional jets and the 737-700 and 737-800.

Air Tran- They will continue to grow in the coming years but will hit a stumbling block as they try and expand west. A merger with another airline may happen and the Air Tran name will be lost.

Continental- Remains strong for the immediate future. Severe competition will force them to merge with Northwest Airlines in the long run. The combined airline will be a strong force against American Airlines. The oldest fleet from each airline will be retired leaving a massive fleet of regional jets and a mainline fleet of 737-700/800/900, 747-400, 757-200/300, 767-200/400, A330-300, 777-200. The A330 fleet will remain much as the A300 fleet has for American, but eventually they will be phased out for more 777's. The A319 and A320 fleet will be sold long after the merger and the 737-NG will grow. The DC-9 fleet will be first to be phased out using larger regional jets and again the 737-NG.

Delta- They will continue to have growing pains. They will shrink further in the next couple of years and then they will buy out Alaska Airlines and what was once America West Airlines and then shrink back down to be a little larger then it's current state. After the buying spree, they will remain conservative and grow more solid from with in.

Frontier- They will be bought out by Jet Blue

Jet Blue- They have a smart team working for them, but I see them biting off a little more then they can chew. I predict rapid expansion is in the works. Buying Frontier followed by a failing United, Jet Blue will grow a large fleet of Airbus and a major hub at DEN. International traffic besides Canada and Mexico isn't likely but in ten years it may be on their to do list.

Northwest- See Continental

Southwest- Remains strong, and slowly grows by perhaps ordering the 737-800 to compete with Jet Blue. These two airlines will beat each other up giving the the top three airlines more time to organize.

US Airways (Short Term) Most of my predictions for US Airways outcome are below under United. I guess you know what this is leading too. US Airways in the next year will emerge from Chapter 11. They will find a loop hole in reducing it's mainline fleet type but not falling below a set number of aircraft. Step one will involve selling it's A330 fleet to Northwest. In return they will buy 20+ 767-300's from Asiana that are parked in the desert very cheaply. The 767-300 will work well with it's current fleet of 767-200's and will merge easier down the road. They will dump the 737-400 fleet and in return they will buy the National 757 fleet parked in the desert very cheaply. A massive order of regional jets will shrink down to a moderate or large order.

United- They will file Chapter 11 in the next month or two. They will remain in the air, but eventually they will start selling off assets. The process will first be slow but will grow rapidly by the end of next year. They will begin with fleet and routes not needed by US Airways to set up for these two to merge. This will spark off most of the other mergers listed above. Before any merger, United will start selling important routes to US Airways. US Airways will be able to handle some of the United International routes with their Asiana 767-300's. Once the two merge, The US Airways fleet of 757's and 767-200/300 will be sold and United will use it's own 757's and 767's. The remaining 737-300's from the combined airlines will be sold, replaced by the A319/20. So the mainline fleet would be comprised of the A319/20/21, 747-400 (greatly reduced) 757, 767-300, 777.

So in ten years, my prediction for the largest airlines in order will be as follows:

1. American
2. Continental/Northwest
3. United/US Airways
4. Delta
5. Southwest
6. Jet Blue
7. Airtran (if not merged)
8. New Airline
9. Midwest Express (to be Midwest)
10. New Airline
 
mikeymike
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu May 18, 2000 6:52 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 6:26 am

Delta "Management" is actually starting up Crew-Rest facilities again on the 777's such that the 3 MD-11's will be gone by end of 2003.

Artsyman...right on with your posts...
 
MD88Captain
Posts: 1224
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 9:50 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 6:49 am

Mikeymike. What's with the quote marks on management? I put that DAL management didn't buy crew rests on the 777's (except for one) because that was my understanding. They also didn't address crew rest in the 767-400. Do you have additional insight?
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Tue Dec 03, 2002 7:21 am

Ryefly-

Not likely that US will buy any 757s, even the National ones, since they are aggressively trying to park the remaining ones they have. That's more of an A321 thing for them.

N
 
azjubilee
Posts: 3376
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2000 5:26 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 7:36 am

The majority of this thread has yet again exploded into a huge speculation fest Airlines are businesses that professionals (try to at least) run. It may seem like it at times, especially to the airline worker, but these multi billion dollar companies aren't run by flight sim geeks, high school seniors and airline enthusiasts. There is very little logic to most of the theories... remember people - MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!!! If you don't have it - nobody is going to be getting married here. Not to mention the fact that with these crazy merger ideas - come people - and with people you've got contracts and unions. This industry isn't as simple as you think it is. Predictions and speculation is so over rated, especially on this site. Not to mention the fact that things change by the minute here, in the aviation world. If these crazy wild haired ideas were based on at least a tiny bit of logic and practicality in a solid envirnment, then MAYBE they'd have merit. But since we have none of that here, it's just a sick form of entertainment.

But do continue my friends...


AZJ
 
mikeymike
Posts: 402
Joined: Thu May 18, 2000 6:52 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 7:41 am

Hey MD88 Pilot....my quotations around the management is probably a discussion better left off line. Perhaps we can email each other some day...

none the less...yes I have in-sight into the 764 crew rest and the 777 crew rest since that is what I work on....but they are buying more because of the ALPA contractual obligations in conjunction with the poor efficiency of flying only 3 MD-11 aircraft. The 764's are a whole different story....while options are consistently being evaluated, nothing new is being done about the 764.
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/US

Tue Dec 03, 2002 7:48 am

The 764s are all domestic configuration and don't really have sufficient range to need a crew rest, do they?

I guess they could fly 10 hours like CO does from EWR to GRU or so on, but is DL planning to fly any like that?

N
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 8:32 am

The 764s are all domestic configuration and don't really have sufficient range to need a crew rest, do they?

They are not domestic config for Continental 35/200 for transatlantics, and 20/235 for Pacific. The latter could be considered closer to domestic.

Jeremy
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6089
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 10:16 am

Thanks AZJ....

Wow, I got a good laugh after not visiting this site for a few days, thank goodness, and I couldn't believe all the BS posted on here...between this thread, and all the ones attacking UA. Its topics and the completely unfactual speculation like this that brings this entire website down. Come'on now!! Most people here have someone of an education, I think. Running an airline is a lot more difficult than just fleet types, and some people seem are so worried about what airline is going to order what aircraft next. Last time I checked, all the US majors were in no such shape to order aircraft. Posting factual information, and having informative discussion is the purpose of this, not to spout of a wishlist or some completely unbased nonsense. Also what burns me the most is the comments about people's job, and the "Oh I'd love to see US or UA die off" with no respect for people's job or the complex operations of a Fortune 500 company. The speculation is garbage, analyst and airline execs can't even predict the future, what makes you believe you can.

All that is asked is a little restraint and intelligence. Maybe you could get some respect around here that way, instead of making online buddies in the non-aviation forum discussing even more BS.

Oh btw....a fine mess with XJ in DTW last night, and that was in good weather, I hate to see what it was like today with the snow.
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 10:45 am

Deltadude8,

I still can't believe the effect Sept. 11th has had on the airline industry...It shocks me to this day...

September 11 was not the root cause of the troubles the airline industry is facing today.

The troubles started in early 2001 when the economy began to stumble. All the majors began seeing a drop in performance and it increased rapidly over the next few months.

Look what happened to Midway. They filed Chapter 11 well before the attacks. This was due to both, rapid expansion and the economy which was going downhill.

While September 11 made the scenario worse, it was not the root cause.

Even if September 11 didn't happen, the airline industry and United would still be in bad shape right now.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Future Of United/American/Delta/Continental/USair/

Tue Dec 03, 2002 10:53 am

Even if September 11 didn't happen, the airline industry and United would still be in bad shape right now.

There is a big difference from being in bad shape and the decimation that is happening at the moment. I agree that the UAL, AA, US would still be in a mess, but Continental would still be in the profit if it wasnt for 9.11

Jeremy

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