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If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 7:13 am

What would the airline industry be like if UAL went out of business..which airline(s) would take over the UAL hubs in DEN, IAD, LAX, ORD, SFO....Would Chicago's hometown airline be taken over by Atlanta's hometown airline: Delta or Dallas' hometown airline: American or someone else?
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 7:29 am

PLEASE PLEASE don't mention about United is going out of business. I don't want to hear about problem with United. I really wanted to stay a float business and to avoid bankruptcy filed. I hope everything is going to smooth and recovery soon. Stop worry about things going to happen soon or what if or blah blah....



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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 7:42 am

As a loyal UAL customer, I would hate to see this happen but it could be a reality. If UAL went belly over, hopefully Delta would take over UAL's Chicago hub. I had the opportunity to fly with them and they would be the first airline to get my business if UAL went down for the count..
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 7:56 am

Enough is enough with these threads. Everyone seems to complain like hell when there is a double thread on the same issue, but it seems the same kind of questions and issues are discussed about United over and over and over again. Am I really the only one sick of seeing threads on UAL which has the contents just as predictable as the sun setting tonight? Honestly nobody here really has the right to say what the future of United Airlines will be. I said it before in another UAL doomsday thread... sit back and just watch the situation unwind and then talk about what happens. not what the future MIGHT be. It sure would make the quality of the forums better in my opinion.

RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 8:07 am

KaiTakFan, I can certainly understand where you're coming from, and I agree with you for the most part re UAL threads. However, neither you nor I have the right to tell anyone here not to express an idea or opinion. I would like to believe that free speech still reigns supreme in the Western world? Anyone has the right to say what is on their mind. Treat these threads the way you would a TV show you object to...turn the channel.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 8:20 am

United is years from going out of business, esp. if it files for bankruptcy. In fact, filing for bankruptcy will probably be the best chance it has not to go out of business.

I know this has been said a hundred times on this forum, but I'll repeat it, bankruptcy is not shutdown. United will file for bankruptcy, but it will still continue flying. The only change will be that it's stock will likely become worthless, banks and other lendors to United will have to wait longer for repayment (and may end up owning United if repayment can't be made) and a bankruptcy judge will void all the ruinious employee contracts that helped get it in this mess, ensuring employees will get paid less. And yes, it might cut some routes, but no more than it is going to do anyways (probably less).

One last great thing is that when it comes out of bankruptcy employees will no longer be on the board of directors, and the board will start doing it's job, not saying yes to every boondoggle employee contract it sees. UAL will finally become managable.
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 8:42 am

The problem is that some of us have a vested interest in UA and resent the "chattering crowds" that speculate ad nauseum about things that are wildly speculative.
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 8:57 am

I would like to believe that free speech still reigns supreme in the Western world?

And since when did the Internet belong ONLY to the Western world? Sorry, but the 1st Amendment does not apply to the Internet.

I personally am getting sick and tired of these "What will happen to United?, Who will take over United's hubs?" posts.

The post asks which airlines are going to takeover United's hubs.

With all due respect, but how the hell are we supposed to know? NO ONE knows what airlines will takeover United's hubs. We aren't psychics, we can't predict the future. It's too early, and there hasn't been any formal announcements by any other airlines about the possibility of taking over United's hubs.

That's why this post is pointless and not only repititious.

I really don't like being harsh and I've usually made it a point to avoid reading this posts, but it had to be said.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
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Wed Dec 04, 2002 9:37 am

The intent of this post is for individuals to give their insights and opinions on what will happen to UAL..Of course we don't know exactly what will happen. That's why individuals give opinions. The purpose of this forum is to give individuals the opportunity to express their ideas on what will happen to UAL. If you don't like it then go to the next forum. I just want to see what individuals have to say about the topic in the question. I am not interested in your personal feelings about this post.
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 11:56 am

Canadi>n Boy, excelent advice! I have not seen anything in these threads that i feel is of any value. so as you say... "turn the channel" and thats just what I will do!  Big thumbs up

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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 1:52 pm

As one of the very few remaining feree market advocates in the US I say.......Who cares? If UA should disappear tommorow, other carriers would snap up any valuable assets. To those that say but, but, but what about the employees, aircraft etc. How many airline employees are there today vs 11 years ago when PA and EA disappeared? The answer is many more. The current crop of primadonnas at UA (not by any stretch all emplyees) deserve to forfeit their $60,000 per year jobs (average mechanic with no overtime) and begin working at a real wage. I know people that work harder than these losers, have more responsibility and earn far less. Hell, I have more responsibilty than these bozos, supervise 20 people and earn 2/3 that amount.

I say good riddance to another dinosaur of the US airline scene. Hopeful to the end.

Rant over.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 2:14 pm

I see AA expanding in ORD, LAX, SFO. DL starting service from East Coast Markets into ORD. DEN left for Frontier. MIA gone, IAD replaced by JB/DL/CO.
DL could shift plenty of RJ's into ORD/IAD from Midwest/East Coast markets.
AA taking over Asia operations. Of course AA would be the big winner but I think DL would move further into the Northeast with AA looking to consolidate California and Chicago.
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 2:30 pm

How could anyone see DEN just left for Frontier, or even for CO to just storm in and take charge?

I don't think people realize the traffic that UA generates at DEN. Its their second largest and most profitable hub. It'd take Frontier, JetBlue, Airtran, and who knows who else merging and taking over DEN to make that happen.

And someone has to offer full fare service at DEN. When I fly for myself, I fly low cost. But when I fly for business I expect full fare service.

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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 4:03 pm

Oh what a horrible thought! It has happened before BN, EA, PA?

Star Alliance to the rescue, for United and Varig?

One result may be, what happened in the 80's and early 90's, the big carrier just get bigger absorbing the demand, constricted capacity, increased fares and flying profitably... for a time.

Rinse and repeat...

The friendly skies will survive.

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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Wed Dec 04, 2002 4:21 pm

Why don't we all just wait till Friday At 1201 am

we'll see what happens, and if the mechanics have half a brain left they will vote in the new proposal. Like kaitakfan said and a couple others, these threads have grown very boring and if in the near future you get the urge to type another dumb thread about when or how UNITED will go under, go under search and look at all the useless threads about this very lame topic.

I am so looking foreword to the threads when AA starts airing their dirty laundry for the public to see, we could always talk about the AA pilots and their contract?

ual 777 contrail
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RE: If United Went Out Of BUSINESS...

Thu Dec 05, 2002 3:04 am

Ok, for the sake of argument, let's assume UA files for Chapter 11.

Let's also assume (again, for the sake of argument) that after languishing in the throes of Chapter 11 bankruptcy for a year, they're unable to get things turned around and begin Chapter 7 liquidation proceedings.

So now there's a gaping hole at DEN, ORD, IAD, SFO, and LAX. Also, a huge player in the Pacific is totally gone. What happens next?

Assuming cash balances of the other carriers remain as they are now, look for the following to occur:

1. F9 grabs up all the spare planes it can for a focused expansion at DEN. CO recalls every one of their planes from MHV and opens a small hub at DEN, with both carriers eventually having combined operations there equalling the size of UA's current DEN hub. AS does not try for a hub at DEN, but calls it a "focus city" and triples their flight operations there within a year of UA ceasing operations.

2. DL (just about the only carrier with big-time cash on hand) snatches up all of UA's Pacific ops, but do not use SFO or LAX for domestic hub operations.

3. AA expands at ORD, at the expense of traffic growth at STL. STL remains essentially flat for at least three years while AA focuses on getting a stranglehold on ORD, then sees small year-over-year growth.

4. B6 begins service to LAX, but within 2 years finds they've painted themselves into a corner, being stuck as a low-cost carrier serving transcontinental nonstops only (LGB/LAX-JFK, IAD, FLL, etc). They perform well, but do not flourish into the juggernaut the media has predicted they would become. UA's traffic at LAX is nearly evenly divided between AA, AS, DL, HP, and CO.

5. IAD sees their traffic drop off dramatically and is not chosen as a hubsite by anyone, since there is no clear-cut reason for other carriers to hub there (US has also ceased operations by this time, freeing up CLT, PHL, and PIT).

6. NW and AS pick up the slack at SFO, with AS continuing to focus on service up and down the West Coast, with a few transcons from SFO.

7. A MAJOR bidding war ensues for UA's coveted LHR operations. DL, NW, and CO go head-to-head for these slots, but DL sees more value in UA's Pacific ops, letting CO and NW battle it out. Eventually NW wins, but overpays in retrospect, because a U.S./E.U. Open Skies agreement is hammered out within two years, allowing all major U.S. carriers access to LHR.

These are just predictions, and again, they're based on the VERY unlikely scenario that UA disappears entirely. The odds are UA will enter Chapter 11 before Christmas 2002, emerging from bankruptcy protection a year later.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group

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