On another post, I read tonight several things that Boeing is considering, and someone said something that caught my attention.
First, we've got this new "787" type super efficient thing. So, we subsequently axe the 75/67 family.
The 747 is old news... the backlog will be filled long before the end of 2003.
The 717 is the one thing that we can't count on either way- we can't count on it to be for sale in the near future, and we can't count on Boeing pulling the plug either. But, for the sake of argument, let's assume AirTran moves on to the 737s, and Boeing ends 717 production.
The big thing is that they are considering a 737-900X to seat up to 200. It makes sense- add an exit door, and capacity jumps by itself.
So, here's what we have.
737s filling all needs for <200 seats.
777/787 filling needs for >200 seats.
That's assuming that, as I predct, the 787 will have a lot in common with the 777.
Do you see anything coincidental about that?
They could potentially be down to TWO AIRCRAFT TYPES. A small one, and a big one.
That is EXACTLY WHERE DOUGLAS ended up. DC-9, DC-10. And they slowly- for thirty years, it seems- wound down into nothingness. They came up with "freshened" versions of each plane countless times... but it ended up with them being absorbed by Boeing.
So- see where I am leading? Boeing shrivels down to 737 and 787, and is in a decade or so absorbed by Airbus.
Comment all you want, it'll be fun to think about this.