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Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 6:38 am

The designer of Airbus's super jumbo A380 says that despite United Airlines is operating under bankruptcy, the airline is still a potential A380 launch customer.

A380 design director Jens Hinrichsen says he expects United will order the super jumbo and believes the airline will recover and back to profit. Hinrichsen is a 25-year airbus veteran.

The A380, in the planning stages since 1994, is scheduled for flight tests in 2005 and commercial service in 2006.

United spokesman Joe Hopkins declined the comment and says the airline is not interested in ordering A380. But Hopkins said that the airline continues to monitor developments on aircraft programs.

One veteran captain of a major U.S. carrier called the A380 "a blimp with wings" that would not appeal to passengers.

 
N79969
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 6:40 am

See my "Psychic or Crackpot" thread below.
 
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PW100
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 6:57 am

When will it snow in Miami....

PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
scottysair
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:00 am

PW100,

I don't think so we have snow into MIA either for the long time. It was use into the north of the states. Just curious about with the winter time at Chicago, huh? Well, see ya around!!

Regards!
 
Lindy
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:03 am

the airline is still a potential A380 launch customer.


Yeap, and I am potential too hehehe who wrote this crap?
BWIADCA - Nikon D100
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:06 am

"Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380"

ROFLMAO!!!!!  Nuts

for other humorous fiction, see also:

"Captain of Titanic: This Thing Will Float; No Problem"

"Ford: Edsel Will Be Our Biggest Seller Ever"

"Southwest: We Need Used Concordes For New Transatlantic Service"

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
maiznblu_757
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:12 am

LOL.. This is funny. I am not going to say it won't happen. I doubt it though.

I think this is a joke.
 
LMP737
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:14 am

I agree with Mr. Hininrichsen on one point. UAL will recover from chapter 11 and turn a profit one day. However I'm not so sure about them ordering the A380. United is parking and/or selling off some of it's 747-400 while keeping their 777. I have a feeling when UAL does recover they will be a much lighter version of it's current self.

Just because an airline has 747-400 doesn't mean it will order the A380. Look at all the airlines that had 747-100/200 that never went on to order the 747-400. American, Delta, Sabena, Swiss Air, Continental, SAS, TWA, Braniff, America West and Pan Am to name a few.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
Boeing4ever
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:26 am

UA A380s. Uh-huh. Contact the "Senator from PanAm", cuz the only way that's gonna happen is if UAL is nationalized right now. This is the airline that's thinking of shedding 744s for 777s (emphasis on the 777s for my next sentence). Does this crackpit honestly think that this means UAL would be interested for A380!? Well, UAL will return from Chap. 11, he's right about that, but his brain may be getting away from him.

B4e-Forever New Frontiers
 
GDB
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:36 am

Unlikely at present, or the near future, but who can really say for sure?
A lot more chance of a UA A380 than a UA Sonic Cruiser!
 
Dash8King
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 8:29 am

Look at all the airlines that had 747-100/200 that never went on to order the 747-400. American, Delta, Sabena, Swiss Air, Continental, SAS, TWA, Braniff, America West and Pan Am to name a few.

And how many of those airlines have the A380 on order? I know that TWA (dead), American, Delta, Braniff (dead), Pan Am and America West Don't.



 
Arsenal@LHR
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 8:54 am

Currently, there is obviously no chance of UA buying anything, let alone A380's. But *IF* UA does come out of bankruptcy and starts making a profit and pax demand warrants bigger planes, then why not?
In Arsene we trust!!
 
jimbobjoe
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 9:09 am

I think this is mostly ridiculous as well...especially since UA almost seems on the verge of dumping their 747's.

However, I did think that perhaps he knows something that we don't. For instance, I could entirely see the possibility of Airbus being *real* nice to UA during this time of crisis, helping them out whatever way they can, with the understood concept that later UA would buy a few token A380's. That doesn't seem very far fetched.
 
b757300
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 9:20 am

Dang, send me some of whatever he was smoking. I could use it after a hard day. Nuts
"There is no victory at bargain basement prices."
 
BA
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 9:33 am

I also believe that United will come out of Chapter 11, and as a stronger airline.

Eventually after a few years, they will need to buy new aircraft. They're not going to stay like they are forever.

But the A380, no. I don't think so.

But I'm not going to deny it though. I've learned anything is possible over the years.

EasyJet's A319 order is a perfect example......

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
EssentialPowr
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 9:58 am

Sure...ADD capacity to a bankrupt network;Airbus will probably underwrite the loan.
 
The Coachman
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 10:29 am

Without sounding melodramatic, this has got to be one of the most ridiculous statements to come out of Airbus. The statement comes from the design director, not the marketing department. He should worry about the A380 rather than who's buying it, that will be done by the marketing and finance department etc.

UA is in dire straits. Only reasonably well off airlines can afford to take a gamble on such an aircraft. Even if UA recovers, it must safeguard itself against such happenings occurring again, as much as possible, and being the only operator of a behemothic aircraft is not a way of doing that.
M88, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73G, 73H, 742, 743, 744, 752, 762, 763, 772, 773, 77W, 320, 332, 333, 345, 388, DH8, SF3 - want
 
Guest

RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 2:07 pm

After UAL emerges from chapter 11, their main priority will be to re-build the massive war chest they once had. After that...maybe...but the 777-300ER is MUCH more likely.
 
cloudy
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 2:08 pm

Airbus seems to love to give good deals to hard luck cases.

Swissair, Sabena, UsAir, United, America West.... all have the Buss's as a major part of their fleet. We havnt seen to many sizeable all or mostly Boeing carriers get into that much trouble.

My guess is that Boeing saw the writting on the wall and refused to give these guys truly competitive deals. Instead, they save their muscle in order to compete for orders from the likes of Ryanair and other healthy carriers.

Both Boeing and Airbus will make "loss-leader" (or almost "loss-leader') sales. Its just that Airbus seems to do it more often and it seems to offer these deals to less financially stable carriers under questionable management. The only killer deal that I can remember Boeing has offered to a carrier in major trouble is the 717 deal with Airtran/Valuejet. And they are a very rare and special case. They were launch customers and also the sole customer of a slow selling line. Yet they were small enough that Boeing's investment could make a difference.

When these carriers shrink or fail - the used planes will go on the market and depress the prices Airbus can receive from those who DO pay them real money for aircraft. While the more healthy carriers Boeing sells to pick up the slack.

Methinks this practice will eventually come back to bite Airbus  Sad . There is a good chance that if Airbus gives A-380s to United for the price of an A-330 as they are apparantly doing with Emirates - the ships will eventually end up in the desert and Airbus will end up competing with its own products. And any money Airbus put in the company in the form of discounts, financing, etc. goes down the drain. This may happen with UsAir, America West and/or United's A320's. In fact, their are only two "safe" airbus fleets in the US that I can think of - JetBlue and Northwest. For Airbus's sake I hope this is enough to keep them profitable in the US market.
 
MSY-MSP
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 2:16 pm

I have to agree this is really a far fetched idea to come from Airbus. But this did get me thinking about a couple of things that might be going on.

Airbus says to UA, we won't come collecting on the money you owe us for the 319/320, until times are better. (I know that this is through a German Bank I cannot remember the name of). in exchange for our generousity you agree to buy another type of aircraft in the future. Airbus realizes that the 777 is going to stay in UA's fleet, but that the 747 is probably gone. However, UA has routes that could, in the future, support the 380, so UA agrees on the side, that when they recover they will order a token couple of 380's.

Is the above possible, yes. Do I believe it? not really. But who knows what is going on behind the closed doors. As BA said anything is possible look at EasyJet.

In summarry UA isn't ordering any new planes anytime soon. But maybe in 2005 they might for delivery in 2009. That would make them a launch customer right? Just a thought. Only time will tell. MSY-MSP
 
EssentialPowr
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 2:58 pm

Remember, some Airbus A380 marketing genius actually thought lower level shopping, entertainment or exercise areas would actually be utilized by the airlines. Could there have been a bigger liability? Those ads were hilarious; complete with plate glass windows to fall through...
 
Guest

RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 3:14 pm

some Airbus A380 marketing genius actually thought lower level shopping, entertainment or exercise areas would actually be utilized by the airlines. Could there have been a bigger liability?

I think those stuff will stay for first 5 years in service to impress passengers, then they'll be gone for good.
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 3:24 pm

You gotta be kidding me!

I think UA will survive!

I also think UA will be much lighter than it is/was!
 
eg777er
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 4:02 pm

People would do well to remember that even though United (and other carriers, such as BA) are dumping some 747s for 777s, they still retain several route combinations that would require a larger airport - mainly out of LHR and NRT, in BA's case - I would imagine this is the same for UA.

Comparisons with early US domestic 741 operators are pointless.....these aircraft were mainly bought for range, or prestige, with predictable results.
 
Joni
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 5:41 pm


United has always been one of the airlines that have voiced their need for larger airliners. They may be shedding 747s now, I don't see how that connects to possible 380 purchases when the airline is better off. The 380 will have substantially better economics than the 747, not to mention higher capacity. It would indeed be logical for UAL to shed the loss-making 747s and buy more modern and efficient planes to replace them with in the future.

I don't see why this idea would create so much steam here.


 
AApilot2b
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 5:56 pm

Are you sure this is an accurate story or the guys at Airbus so sold on their A380 that they have lost touch with reality. I hope United returns to profitability for the sake of my pilot friends that work there, but "launch the A380!" I highly doubt it. Is this guy smoking pot?  Big grin
 
chiawei
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 6:11 pm

I seriously doubt that this is going to happen at all.

1. How does United going to fill 500+ seat on long international route? Does anyone think that United can really compete against the likes of Cathay/Singapore in terms of service and price?

2. How can anyone assume that United will ever get out of Chapter 11 and not give up some of it's long route.

The reality is that United probably would use lower capacity aircraft of long range instead of operating a A380.
A380 is not really that more cheaper to run as compare to 744. Given united's service i seriously doubt they can fill A380 to make it worth while.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A38

Thu Jan 09, 2003 6:34 pm

United doesn't want to compete with SQ, for example, they're partners. And CX's service to North America pales in comparison to UA's power to serve HKG. I'm not talking about their inflight service, I'm talking about their routes, frequencies, and connecting opportunities.

Given their service you doubt they could fill a plane? Hmm, the thinly veiled attack on UA's inflight crews doesn't challenge the full planes they fly over both the North and South Pacific every day.

Americans are accustomed to the "lower class" of service in first, and, until more of the Asian airlines start serving more destinations in the US nonstop, we'll be happy to continue to fly our flag carriers. The service is just fine, and most Americans need a connection to fly internationally anyway so we'd rather stay on one airline, in general.

N
 
The Coachman
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:09 pm

Gigneil, I think you've forgotten about CX's partner who happens to be AA...
M88, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73G, 73H, 742, 743, 744, 752, 762, 763, 772, 773, 77W, 320, 332, 333, 345, 388, DH8, SF3 - want
 
Joni
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 9:27 pm


Chiawei,

The whole point in A380 is that it _is_ considerably cheaper to run than 744.

One of the reasons for the trend toward smaller planes is that recently, newly designed and efficient "smaller" (777 isn't exactly "small") planes have been launched. That driver will likely change as new-generation large planes (380) get launched.
 
Lindy
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Thu Jan 09, 2003 11:38 pm

Your speculations are point less. This thing was writen by somebody without any aviation knowledge.
Just read this "the airline is still a potential A380 launch customer."

How many launch customers one aircraft can have??? This is eather joke or bull shit.

Rafal
BWIADCA - Nikon D100
 
ual777contrail
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 1:24 am

lindy,
I would hardly say the guy has no aviation experience, he is a salesmen. This is a guy from airbus trying to sell his product, give the guy a break for trying. Yes, it is very far fetched.


ual 777 contrail
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 1:30 am

No one knows how the 380 will perform in actual service yet. It has the potential to be more efficient than a 744 but that is still uncertain.
 
F4N
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:03 am

To all:

I think the speculative nature of this entire topic is completely pointless. UA first and foremost has to survive. If they do, they will most likely adopt a very different business model from the one they currently use, meaning that the extent of their international service is open to question. Given that their current fleet of 744/777 are relatively competitive, I suspect that it will be some time before their finances(read: creditors)will allow for the acquisition of any widebody a/c, let alone A380, if UA even considers it. The gentleman from Airbus is indulging in some hopeful as well as wishful thinking.

I am also surprised at the amount of parochialism displayed here about the "efficiency" of A380. Based on what, may I ask? Airbus propaganda figures? What would you expect them to say? I believe their inchoate figures are based on being 15% better than a 744. As the weight of A380 continues to move upward, does the efficiency increase?

F4N
 
wingman
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 5:19 am

I also read that piece and don't see why all the fuss, I agree the guy is just talking about possibilities. Certainly the most troublesome comment he made in the article was that aside from UA, the 380 has no forseeable US clients for this product. So Fedex may be the only US-based airline to order the 380 for many years to come. That leaves Airbus with a fairly short list of prospective buyers for the 380 over the next five years, chiefly the Asian carriers. The second problem is that Airbus has established a floor price for this plane that will inevitably drive its break-even number past 500 at minimum. That's just my educated guess, but I don't see ANA, JAL or even MAS agreeing to paying anything more than 5% over launch prices if that. The 380 loans are not going to get brushed under the table like the 330/340 loans and this will impact their shareholders. France SA may not care but I can assure you that Deutsche Bank will not be so forgiving. Anyway, this is jus one bad case scenario that may never play out.
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 5:22 am

$3 billion of the development costs do not have to be repaid if the aircraft is not profitable. Source: June (maybe July) 29, 2002 Time Magazine article. I wonder what the time horizon is for being profitable.
 
wingman
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 7:21 am

That can't be right. The loans are guaranteed to the US to be "on a commercial basis". Banks don't give a flying fart if a project is profitable or not, they want their money back with interest. If the above is true, then Airbus is more propped up than I ever thought possible.
 
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Heavierthanair
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 7:26 am

G'day

In Henry Ford's wording, the model "T" will be available in any color desired, provided it is black.

Black no longer seems the preferred color scheme though

In other words, predicting the future is difficult at times

Cheers

Peter
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 7:29 am

Wingman,

That $3 billion is from the EU and not banks. It is a 'repayable' loan. That Time article was in a reprinted excerpt put out by Airbus.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A38

Fri Jan 10, 2003 7:30 am

The Coachman-

AA's power to connect people to Cathay's service without multiple stops first is minute compared to UA's to connect to their own flights or that of their partner airlines.

N
 
ha763
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 2:53 pm

I doubt UA will want anything bigger than the 747. I also found the following article interesting.

http://www.aviationcareer.net/theplane/tp_102002_01.cfm

I especially found the part where it says that it would take almost 20,000 feet for an A380 to get off the ground if at maximum takeoff weight at sea level on a cool day.
 
EssentialPowr
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:17 pm

To every genius talking about 744s and UA:

UA can't sell the seats they have. Low seat mile costs on a 500 pax airliner are great, ASSUMING those seats are sold at a price that exceeds the DOCs. If it takes 499 seats sold to break even, why in the world do people think the 500th seat will take UA out of Chapt 11? Even more significant, why buy a new a/c to do this?
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A38

Fri Jan 10, 2003 3:22 pm

I find that to be completely unbelievable. It only has about a 200,000-300,000 lb greater MTOW than the 744, and between 30-50,000lbs more thrust.

N
 
dazeflight
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Fri Jan 10, 2003 10:45 pm

Wingman,

>>So Fedex may be the only US-based airline to order the 380 for many years to come.

The french newspaper "La Tribune" has published an article just this Tuesday stating that Gecas want to order 10 and Atlas Air 5 A380. While these are not confirmed orders yet, it sounds clearly different than your statement. I might also add that this has nothing to do with Atlas Air's statement from 2000 that they are considering the A380 (they where considering 10-15 at that time).

Together with FedEx and ILFC this makes 4 US-companys buying that plane, 2 of them being airlines.

ciao
Daniel
 
cedarjet
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Sat Jan 11, 2003 2:06 am

I predict that either UA or NW will fly the A380. All this nonsense about how UA will never order it is nonsense - they're already the biggest Airbus customer. And sure they're going 777 but some routes will always be 744 or bigger: Tokyo, Sydney et al. Brace yourselves for US carriers flying the A380.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
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clickhappy
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Sat Jan 11, 2003 2:40 am

A380 has ~280k lbs of Thurst, moving a GTW of 1,235,000

744 has ~240k of lbs Thurst, moving a GTW of 875,000

That means the A380 has 15% more power than the 744, but is moving 30% more weight.
 
bobcat
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Sat Jan 11, 2003 2:46 am

In other news, Disney Cruise Lines is currently negotiating
with the Russian government to buy a couple of Typhoon-
class submarines. These subs will be used for Caribbean
cruises and passengers will be able to enjoy complete
darkness during the entire voyage...

 
wingman
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Sat Jan 11, 2003 3:04 am

Don't tell me boys, I'm just relating what the Airbus guy said in the article..."there are no other potential customers for the 380 in the US for the foreseeable future"...Maybe orders 5-6 years from now is a possibility. Atlas Air specifically denied intetest in the 380 in the article through a direct quotation from a spokesman. My point is that Airbus needs to feed this pipeline each and every year to reamin on schedule for repayments of their "commercially-based" loans. So if there's a huge gap from the 90 orders at launch to a next wave of 90 4-5-6 years down the road, it will be interesting to see how Airbus makes repayments on the program with a trickle of cashflow. That's where I become concerned about the comments above saying that they don't really have to make payments on the $3B if the project isn't profitable. Not even the hardest core Airbus fans could continue to defend this type of nonsense. That would naturally translate to the direct and literal definition of state subsidies, something which Airbus, EADS and the EU deny will ever happen again at Airbus.
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Sat Jan 11, 2003 3:20 am

The Time article is:

July 29, 2002

America Helps build the 'Bus

I can't link it unfortunately since it is archived...but you can see for yourself.

 
F4N
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RE: Airbus: UA Will Return To Profit And Order A380

Sat Jan 11, 2003 6:52 am

Dazeflight:

In a recent statement about earnings, Atlas denied that it has any intention of ordering A380 anytime in the near future. The story was on Yahoo-I am trying to find the link as it came as a surprise to me also.

Cedarjet:

UA may be Airbus' biggest client, but that accounts for what? They've not ordered any other Airbus model. UA has to survive first; people seem to neglect that point in their haste to place A380 with them. Given the difficulty they are having putting together a plan which will be acceptable to the court and creditors, that is not entirely certain. Personally, I see UA becoming much smaller and offering more frequencies where they are strong and can obtain maximum utilisation of their current fleet. Given the staggering losses institutions have experienced from their investment in UA, credit for financing a/c purchases will be hard to find and a LONG time coming.

F4N