Topic Author
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Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2001 2:55 pm

Qantas Shares - Right Time To Buy?

Sat Jan 25, 2003 9:58 am

Hello all,
I am completely new to the stockmarket and have never purchased anything there. Recently, I was considering buying just about AUD$2000 worth of Qantas shares. While this isn't a lot, I would like to try the stockmarket and see how I do.

I was wondering whether you think that this is the right time to buy Qantas shares given their current situation and future outlook. I personally thought that the AirNZ/QF deal would be good for it and also some other upgrades Qantas has made. I would be very interested to hear how Qantas has performed over the last 12 months and whether their current price of around $3.97 is lower or higher than 12 months ago.
Also, their management. Is there any site I can go to to check Qantas stock value over the last twelve months.

Any help would be great as I am hoping to purchase as soon as possible.

Thanks in advance
Spirit of Australia
Topic Author
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Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2001 2:55 pm

RE: Qantas Shares - Right Time To Buy?

Sat Jan 25, 2003 11:11 am

Also perhaps in relation to the (impending) war on Iraq.

Spirit of Australia
Posts: 556
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2000 10:28 pm

RE: Qantas Shares - Right Time To Buy?

Sat Jan 25, 2003 11:53 am

Like you QantasAirways, I've been considering investing in Qantas too. However, I've taken the decision that, with the world on the brink of war, it really isn't an environment within which I feel comfortable about investing. Whilst I may be completely wrong, I'm of the opinion that if the impending war with Iraq comes to fruition next month, the stock market in general will fall. As a result, I see next month or later as being the best time to buy in general.

A trading price of $3.97 for Qantas shares is high - the highest it has been for a long while although they were, sometime this week, trading just over $4. My gut feeling is that their exceptionally strong price has peaked now and will continue to fall for the next few months, depending on Iraq which may bring the shares low to a trading price of $ it is important to analyse the market statistics of the Gulf War to see if you can get a guide.

Whilst Qantas has done very well in the last year or so, outstandingly well n many regards, and having recorded very impressive profits, a war with Iraq could destroy all that as fuel prices sky-rocket and passengers become wary about flying. For an airline, this is fatal. We do, however, have every confidence that Qantas will survive...I think that is undoubted prospect but albeit with smaller profits in the next year or so. The tie-up with Air New Zealand will help Qantas through, but people are more worried about a war with Iraq than investing in a small Kiwi carrier which, given the best of years, still records modest profits so I doubt it will make much difference to the share price.

As I have decided, I would say to keep your $2000 in the bank and accumulate your annual interest for a little while longer or so I suspect. Remember, go by your gut feeling and not by what other's tell or advise you. Perhaps the best time to buy will be the day a war with Iraq is announced but I would pay no more than $3.50 per share in this climate....Perhaps no more than $3.25 and, coupled with a small return of 18c per annum dividend with record profits, it isn't really an investment that will have you raking in the dollars.

I would just wait and see how the market travels because, as we are all so aware, the market is an unstable and often unpredictable place. If you're a bit of an entrepreneur like me, perhaps look at investing your money in some recently floated companies which are still trading very cheaply.

But this is the stock market after all....Who knows....I may have squandered your chances of being a multi-millionaire!
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Joined: Sat Aug 17, 2002 3:07 pm

RE: Qantas Shares - Right Time To Buy?

Sat Jan 25, 2003 1:27 pm

Over the past 12 months Qantas shares have traded in the range of $3.37 to $4.92. It has made some ground over the past fortnight given positive factors such as the rising aussie $$$$ and major broking houses placing buy recommendations on the stock.

The current price compares to 12 month targets ranging from $4.80 - $5.20.

The current "weak" price is reflective of the risks associated with Iraq. Remember Qantas recently raised $700M of fresh capital at a price of $4.20 per share. Those major funds that subscribed are still underwater.

While I hold a parcel of QF stock I would not advise buying until the "war" issues become clearer. However in saying this the previous Gulf War did not have a large negative impact on Qantas. I also worry about people avoiding QF if the Yanks, Aussies and Brits are the only ones doing the attacking.

If the war does not eventuate or is over quickly I would certainly buy at these levels as a 30% gain in 12 months is not unrealistic. If QF pulls off the ANZ partnership the price targets will be even higher.

Qantas has been experiencing extremely high load factors and increasing yields over the past 6 months. Expect a bumper result when the half yearly is released in February.

IO also expect recent fleet upgrades and product improvements to start having a further positive effect on yield going forward.

Another factor to take into consideration is the "open skies" agreement with Singapore which could see SIA start flying to the US from Sydney. The only significant threat going forward.

I hope this helps Qantas Airways.

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Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 3:23 pm

RE: Qantas Shares - Right Time To Buy?

Sat Jan 25, 2003 2:05 pm

Going by your gut feeling is the last thing you want to do when investing in the stock market.

Go by your own research, your own thoughts, and your own analysis. But not your own feelings. People have lost allot of money and missed out on allot of opportunities because they listened to their heart or gut instead of their head. This is an especially bad idea for one new to the market. I took a nasty hit on Midwest Express when I started out as an investor (about the year 1998 or 9). Luckily, I had also bought Bank of America. I bought Midwest Express to satisfy my heart. I bought Bank of America to satisfy my head. There is a lesson to be learned here.

If you have never been in the market, particularly if you don't know much about it, may I suggest staying out of airlines entirely? No matter how much you think you know about this industry - if you don't know about the financial side of things you are in for a world of hurt. This means CASM, RASM, P/E ratios, leverage, balance sheets, cash flows, goodwill, etc. If you don't know well the meaning of ALL the terms I just mentioned you are not ready yet. What you learn in this forum is NOT enough. If you must invest in an airline now I would suggest just putting in what to you is a trivial ammount and think of it as just another one of the many useless things we all buy from time to time. Kind of like new wallpaper. Because that is exactly what it may become, and you have to allow for that possibility when buying almost any airline stock (or any stock trading in that price range). An old TWA or Sabena certificate would be an excellent conversation piece, wouldn't it? Well, only if the conversation didn't center on the buyer's stupidity......

Go to the Motley Fool's website or pick out some of their books if you want some real advise. David and Tom (the Gardner brothers AKA the Motley Fool) will tell you what you need to know. Listen to them, not to us anonymous bigmouths on this forum.

and BTW... One of the first things they will tell you is that the way people get rich in the stock market is by patience and persistance. It is not by making the right bets and the right picks like you would in a casino. Those who look for super-bargains, etc. nearly always end up being shark food especially if they are UNLUCKY enough to have some initial successes. Self discipline and long-term thinking is everything. There is no easy way out.

The good news is that in the markets, unlike in a casino, the odds are stacked in YOUR favor if you stay in for the long haul. Good luck....
Topic Author
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Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2001 2:55 pm

RE: Qantas Shares - Right Time To Buy?

Sat Jan 25, 2003 3:58 pm

Thank you KrisWorldB777, QANTASpower and Cloudy!

You have cleared my suspicions very much in your detailed posts.
I am truly grateful.

I do agree that maybe I should wait a little longer to see the outcome of the war. Hopefully everything will be okay.

KrisWorld: I think I will leave my $2000 in the bank for a little while longer to see about this "war".

Spirit of Australia

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