Like you QantasAirways, I've been considering investing in Qantas too. However, I've taken the decision that, with the world on the brink of war, it really isn't an environment within which I feel comfortable about investing. Whilst I may be completely wrong, I'm of the opinion that if the impending war with Iraq comes to fruition next month, the stock market in general will fall. As a result, I see next month or later as being the best time to buy in general.
A trading price of $3.97 for Qantas shares is high - the highest it has been for a long while although they were, sometime this week, trading just over $4. My gut feeling is that their exceptionally strong price has peaked now and will continue to fall for the next few months, depending on Iraq which may bring the shares low to a trading price of $2.75....so it is important to analyse the market statistics of the Gulf War to see if you can get a guide.
Whilst Qantas has done very well in the last year or so, outstandingly well n many regards, and having recorded very impressive profits, a war with Iraq could destroy all that as fuel prices sky-rocket and passengers become wary about flying. For an airline, this is fatal. We do, however, have every confidence that Qantas will survive...I think that is undoubted prospect but albeit with smaller profits in the next year or so. The tie-up with Air New Zealand will help Qantas through, but people are more worried about a war with Iraq than investing in a small Kiwi carrier which, given the best of years, still records modest profits so I doubt it will make much difference to the share price.
As I have decided, I would say to keep your $2000 in the bank and accumulate your annual interest for a little while longer or so I suspect. Remember, go by your gut feeling and not by what other's tell or advise you. Perhaps the best time to buy will be the day a war with Iraq is announced but I would pay no more than $3.50 per share in this climate....Perhaps no more than $3.25 and, coupled with a small return of 18c per annum dividend with record profits, it isn't really an investment that will have you raking in the dollars.
I would just wait and see how the market travels because, as we are all so aware, the market is an unstable and often unpredictable place. If you're a bit of an entrepreneur like me, perhaps look at investing your money in some recently floated companies which are still trading very cheaply.
But this is the stock market after all....Who knows....I may have squandered your chances of being a multi-millionaire!