SAA201
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SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 3:16 pm

 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 3:49 pm

This is an absolutely outstanding article. Finally, some analysis about the A340-600's performance as well, in actual tangible numbers.

SAA201, I have a list of questions...

Is SAA actually growing as fast as the article makes it sound?
Are you flying 744s on each of your slots to LHR?
Are your JFK and Atlanta flights huge money makers for you? Filling up the 744s seat wise?

I was just fascinated that the article implies that not only are the 744s aging, but that SAA was outgrowing them anyway. I know the 744 isn't a 21st century plane, but it does seem to be effective. The FAA fuel tank directive obviously hurts you guys... and the A380 would solve that. The A380 could also do the ATL trip nonstop in both directions no problem.

I'd also imagine RR powerplants being chosen - which RR needs don't they? Isn't the GP7200 whooping up the Trent 900 pretty well in Sales?

N
 
PolAir
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 3:57 pm

Hmm. Sounds all right. I can understand 4 A380, but i dont get buying 22 like Emirates????
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:15 pm

Are your SA - New York">JFK and Atlanta flights huge money makers for you? Filling up the 744s seat wise?

SA takes severe payload penalties (in the form of pax) for it's N. American 744 ops...... shouldnt be tough to fill them at all.


but i dont get buying 22 like Emirates????

For all we know, EK may be planning to corner the early market, the lease some planes out to other carriers.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
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yyz717
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:19 pm

Does the 744 fuel tank directive apply to all 744 operators? How much does it reduce 744 range by? Is it a permanent or temporary directive?

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:24 pm

I don't think its something that can be repaired cheaply, but I don't know

It does apply for all 744 operators to the United States, but I'm sure other countries are taking it to heart as its safety related.

And it does not apply to 744ERs.

I think it reduces it by a good 600 to 1000 nm.

N
 
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yyz717
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:27 pm

Thanks Neil.

A 600-1000nm range reduction must be hitting a number of 744 hard.

Neil.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
jmc1975
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:32 pm

SA takes severe payload penalties (in the form of pax) for it's N. American 744 ops...... shouldnt be tough to fill them at all.


That is very true. Last month, I flew SA - Georgia">ATL-CPT on a 747-400 (ZS-SAY), which is configured 11F/56J/285Y. I noticed that Y-class was booked to 216 pax, and restricted to 271. Also, the temperature at departure time was 31 degrees Fahrenheit and it still used up almost all 11889' of Runway 27R. Just imagine how severe the restriction would be during the summer.

.......
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:32 pm

I'm sure QF was unimpressed.

But they were able to throw their 744ERs on the LAX route quickly thereafter, or maybe even right before.

N
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 4:49 pm

Yikes! That was not good reading material for a Boeing 744 fan! I'd hate to see SAA's 744s go away in replacement of the A380! But I had no idea that the A346 was that much more efficient.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 5:04 pm

Well, if it makes you feel better I think the article was comparing the A346 to the 742...  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

I really am interested to know what the economics vs. the 744 are.

N
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 5:07 pm

Oh wait. It does refer to the 744 at the end.

22 tons is way less... but according to their fleet plan, SAA isn't gonna fly the A346 to New York... they still show a 744 on their future plans.

Does the A346 carry enough people for the New York run?

N
 
gerardo
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 5:13 pm

Not only:

(quote from the above mentioned article):
"The aircraft needed 28 ton s of fuel less than the B747 Classic which usually services the route - a saving of some R77 000. It also carried an extra 30 ton s in weight, increasing revenue further. And it needed only three cockpit crew rather than five.

SAA estimates that over a year the A340 will carry four times the payload of a B747 Classic on the Hong Kong route. And studies have shown that to New York, the A340 will use around 22 ton s of fuel less than the B747-400 . "


It compares the A346 with the B747 classic on the HKG route and with the B744 to New York.

Just a question: does the B744 have to do a fuel stop on the route to New York and will the A346 do the same stop as well? This could also play a role in the consumption.

Regards
Gerardo
dominguez(dash)online(dot)ch ... Pushing the limits of my equipment
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 5:42 pm

They're very roughly similar range planes... but the A346 wouldn't be saddled by the FAA fuel tank directive, so it'd make it nonstop most likely.

The A380 will nonstop it with ease. I also wouldn't be surprised to see SAA get an A345 or two and pack it up with seats, in the meantime.

N
 
ZSSNC
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 6:33 pm

They're very roughly similar range planes... but the A346 wouldn't be saddled by the FAA fuel tank directive, so it'd make it nonstop most likely.

The A380 will nonstop it with ease. I also wouldn't be surprised to see SAA get an A345 or two and pack it up with seats, in the meantime.


Right now, all flights ex JNB have to make a fuel stop on its trips to ATL and JFK. However, the 346 could fly that route nonstop.

Now, when it comes to the 345, SAA is actually considering to buy some of those as an additional replacement for their Boeing 737-800 (no kidding, that is what Andrè Viljoen said).

ZSSNC
Airbus A340-600 - the longest temptation in the sky
 
gerardo
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 6:34 pm

Then I wonder, if the huge difference in fuel consumption is also linked to the additional fuel stop of the B744. If so, the numbers are not really comparable.

Regards
Gerardo
dominguez(dash)online(dot)ch ... Pushing the limits of my equipment
 
SailorOrion
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 6:40 pm

Gerardo.
Of couese from an engineering point-of-view it is not very prudent to compare a one-stop flight to a non-stop flight and saying: Hey, the A346 needs 22% less fuel. However, from an operational point of view things are different.

The A346:
-needs 22% less fuel
-gets there faster.

It doesnt matter HOW this she achieves this, it just matter THAT she does. The A346 flies there nonstop, the B744 does not. So it is conceivable that the A346 might be the better plane to fly there.
Both are fine aircraft. There are other routes where the B744 would be cheaper / better to operate.

SailorOrion
 
artsyman
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 6:48 pm

The aircraft needed 28 ton s of fuel less than the B747 Classic which usually services the route - classic doesnt do this route, 744 does it (as some of you mentioned)

And it needed only three cockpit crew rather than five - since when does the 744 have a cockpit crew of 5 ?

This is actually a pretty biased article. I like the 346 and I like the A380, but to pick out facts like these as the basis of your article is pretty shoddy journalism
 
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VirginFlyer
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 6:57 pm

Artsyman - it was refering to the 747 Classic needing 5 cockpit crew, not the 747-400. Don't forget that longhaul flights carry relief crew, not just the 2/3 required at any one time to fly the aircraft.

V/F
"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 7:57 pm

Artsyman-

The article refers to the airplanes correctly, and separately.

Its talking about the 28 less tons of fuel on JNB-HKG, which was previously operated by a 747 Classic, as well as the 747 Classic needing to carry 5 crewmembers.

Then later, it refers to the 22 less tons of fuel on JNB-JFK, which is operated by a 744.

It gets it all right, you just have to read it a few times to clear up the connections.

N
 
A388
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 9:05 pm

How many A380's have been ordered until now? According to the Airbus website there were 95 orders by the end of 2002 (?) from Qatar Airways, Emirates, Air France, Lufthansa, Qantas, FedEx, ILFC and Singapore Airlines. Malaysian Airlines ordered the A380 this year.

Here's my summary of the current status of (potential) A380 customers. Please correct if I got this wrong.

Qatar Airways and Emirates
Qatar Airways is expected to order two more A380's at this year's Paris Air Show. Emirates is also evaluating the need for more A380's.

Iberia
A while ago I read Iberia was interested in the A380 as well, even though I don't see that happen anytime soon. I think the A340-600 is large enough for Iberia's long-haul operations for the coming 5-8 years (?).

Cathay Pacific Airways
It still surprises me this airline hasn't selected the A380 yet, but rumours are they will lease a few from ILFC (according to an article published in Flight International). I've read on a post here that it's typical of Cathay Pacific Airways to look at the performance of a newly introduced aircraft before they place an order themselves. Is this true?

Qantas
Now that the US will introduce fuel restrictions on all 744 operators to the US, can we expect more A380 orders from Qantas or will they go for more B747-400ER's?

Japan Airlines/ANA
There have been quite some articles discussing the need for larger aircraft on the Japanese market with Japan Airlines and ANA being eyed by Airbus. What's the status on this?

Atlas Air
It has been a long time that I haven't heard from Atlas Air regarding the A380-800F. About a year ago I read an article in Flight International in which the CEO of Atlas Air was expressing interest in the A380-800F if modifications were implemented as the A380-800F at the time was configured for cargo express operations. IIRC the A380-800F needed some strengthening in the aircraft's structure and more powerful engines to allow it to carry heavier cargo which Atlas Air transports. What's the current status on Atlas Air and the A380-800F?

South African Airways
We now know South African Airways is the latest potential customer for the A380.

As for British Airways and US major airlines, there financial situation and future outlook doesn't support A380 operations. US major airlines strategies are based on frequency rather than capacity. But what about slot restrictions at major airports? There will come a time when these airlines will also need larger aircraft to cope with increasing demand (even though this may still be far away). Are US A380 operations a possibility in about 10-15 years from now?

Any comments/information is welcome.

Regards,

A388
 
manzoori
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 9:57 pm

I'd also imagine RR powerplants being chosen - which RR needs don't they? Isn't the GP7200 whooping up the Trent 900 pretty well in Sales?


... Hardly!

Trent 900 - 53 firm orders + 31 Options

GP7000 - 42 Firm orders + 16 Options

with a further 10 aircraft up for grabs!

Cheers

Rez
 Wink/being sarcastic
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rojo
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 10:33 pm

If I remember correctly, the A340-600 will perform better with the new wing it will get that will be 1 ton less heavy!!!
The A346 is a little bit more heavy of what Airbus promised when airlines made their purchase orders, so a new wing was developed, but the first batch of 20 A346's will have the heavy wing. This should hurt a lot on the performance of the airplane. I know Iberia's first three A346 will have the heavy wing which will be a problem after they get all the frames.
I will guess SAA will retrofit the A346 with the new wing????

Rojo
 
hkg82
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 11:01 pm

This is great news for the A380 program, yet another potential customer. I think it's more likely than not that they will order the A380.

"He said SAA had asked Airbus to study the performance data of the mega-jet to see if it was also suitable for service to New York and Hong Kong, the airline's other long-haul routes. " (a portion of the article copied & pasted)

Well this is unexpected to say the least! Even by 2006 I would very much doubt SAA would be able to fill an A380 on the HKG service, cargo certainly, but passengers, it’s very unlikely. This route is well suited to the A346/747-size aircraft & Cathay already operates flights to JNB from HKG but hey, it’s not like I don’t want them to operate the A380 to Hong Kong, of course I do, but I just don’t see it happening.

I'm not sure, but is there going to be an A380C? If so, then an A380C on JNB-HKG could certainly be viable.

Hkg82.
 
cedarjet
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 11:20 pm

This is why the A380 is going to be a massive success. Every airline who operate 747s right now will need to replace those aircraft eventually. Why would they do it with more 747s, and all the limitations of old technology? Not to say that the 747 is a dog, far from it - but it's a little long in the tooth these days. Eventually every operator of the 747 will fly the A380, or get out of the widebody long haul flying business (unless Boeing build a new VLA from scratch, like they should have from the outset).
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
na
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Mon Feb 24, 2003 11:25 pm

Cedarjet,
I must agree, unless Boeing revises the 744 massively (or the A380 suffers serious problems) its days as a bestseller are over forever. Sad truth.
 
Frostbite
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 12:02 am

A look at SAA's (and codeshare partner DL's) websites show that eastbound JFK-JNB and ATL-JNB/CPT are again operating nonstop (with the exception of the new twice weekly JFK-DKR-JNB service). Westbound services of course still transit Sal. Anyone know what adjustments were made to allow eastbound n/s services to resume?

Regarding associated payload penalties...I cannot bring any current information to bear but back in my pre-furlough DL ramp-rat days, I often checked loads on SAA's transatlantic services and reguarly saw ATL/JFK-JNB/CPT operating at or near full pax capacity, and not just in winter (around 377 pax in pre-Millenium configuration as I recall) . Surely SAA bumps cargo before pax to satisfy payload restrictions - besides, I would guess that eastbound cargo demand is relatively weak given the devaluation of the Rand vs. the Dollar in recent years.

I don't dispute that some payload penalties are likely to be in place on muggy summer days in ATL....but note that SAA is scheduled out in the morning at 1030. "Severe" payload restrictions might be overstating the case a bit. I recall when JAL commenced n/s ATL-NRT on 742s...now THOSE took severe payload restrictions - around a quarter to a third of seats couldn't be sold. As long as I'm going off on longhaul services ex ATL, anyone know the situation on KE's ATL-ICN? Payload restrictions? A look at schedules shows them upgrading from 777s to 744s later this summer.

Cheers
 
qatarairways
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 12:24 am

A388,
You can add another to your list. A recent article on the A380 said that Airbus will soon get an order for 10 A380's from a Middle Eastern carrier. Just speculating but it could be for Saudi Arabian Airlines who have expressed interest in the A380.
 
Arsenal@LHR
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 12:51 am

Notice that airlines are increasingly replacing their fleets earlier than planned. SAA plans to get rid of the 744's in 5 to 6 years time, and even by then the 744's will still be middle-aged. Same applies to MAS,SQ and AF.
In Arsene we trust!!
 
artsyman
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 12:53 am

Artsyman - it was refering to the 747 Classic needing 5 cockpit crew, not the 747-400. Don't forget that longhaul flights carry relief crew, not just the 2/3 required at any one time to fly the aircraft.

**************

What is the point of mentioning the classic ? it is not relevent at all, and then to mention the 5 man cockpit, it is also not relevent.

The use of those stats is very misleading. Sure the classic used a 5 man, but they dont fly that. That is like Boeing mentioning that the A380 uses much more fuel and is more costly to run than a Cessna, or a 737.

The point of the article was to try and show how much better off SAA is with the A380 and with airbus, but if you are going to have your entire article showing stats to support this, then at least use proper ones.

The 744 will use the same amount of cockpit crew as any airbus on similar routings, so to mention the fact that an old 747 classic uses more seems really pathetic

Jeremy
 
gerardo
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 12:54 am

SailorOrion

You are of course right: for SAA it's 22t less of fuel from JNB to JFK. Period!

It would be just a bit false to say now, that an A346 uses x% less fuel than the B744 on any route, just based on this comparison. Add to that, that once the problems related to the B744 fuel tanks are solved, the difference will be less, but I can't say by how much.

About the A346 weight: the first batch will indeed be heavier, and I wonder, if there is a possibility of upgrade for those A346. Any infos regarding that? And was that only the wing?

Regards
Gerardo
dominguez(dash)online(dot)ch ... Pushing the limits of my equipment
 
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RayChuang
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 1:15 am

I wouldn't be surprised that SA orders about 10-12 A380-800's.

People forget that the LHR-CPT/JNB route is a very popular route, and there are multiple airlines competing on this route. Besides, why would SA want to get upstaged by VS when there's a good chance VS will fly its A388's on the LHR-JNB route by early 2007? Also, SA could use the A388 on its route between SA - New York">JFK and JNB/CPT, too.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 1:34 am

Frostbite,

a 744 is designed to haul roughly 400 people. The fact that SA fits their N. American longhaulers with mid-to-moderate 300s is a payload reduction within itself.

Remember that Atlanta-J'Burg is actually beyond the 744's advertised "standard" design range.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
SAA201
Topic Author
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 3:16 am

Artsyman wrote:

What is the point of mentioning the classic ? it is not relevent at all, and then to mention the 5 man cockpit, it is also not relevent.

----

I think the writer of the article was trying to emphasise the cost savings of the A340-600 which has just been placed on the HKG route, taking over from B747-200's that previously did the route. Ie in terms of fuel and crewing costs saved

SAA uses 3 crew for it's A346 flight on that route (2 pilots, 1 in-flight relief) compared with 5 crew for the B742 (2 pilots + 1 in-flight relief, together with 2 flight engineers sharing the workload).

Hope this clears things up.

 
artsyman
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 3:38 am

I understand that, but it is misleading. the article is very airbus vs boeing and therefore to be accurate needs to compare like for like. I understood what he was doing, it is just shoddy journalism.
 
gerardo
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 6:20 am

I don't think, it was a pro Airbus article, but more an article pointing out the importance of the investments placed by ordering all those A343 and A346.

On one hand, SAA will have more capital costs, but the increased revenue and lower costs should more than compensate that. I think, that was, what the reporter tried toi show.

Regards
Gerardo
dominguez(dash)online(dot)ch ... Pushing the limits of my equipment
 
AvObserver
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 8:54 am

Gerardo says...
"It would be just a bit false to say now, that an A346 uses x% less fuel than the B744 on any route, just based on this comparison. Add to that, that once the problems related to the B744 fuel tanks are solved, the difference will be less, but I can't say by how much."

Right. And don't forget that going by Boeing's passenger capacity of 416, just over 30 more than the A346 typically carries, the 744 is also carrying more people which slashes the fuel % ratio further.

 
CX747
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 10:32 am

I do think that the article was definately pro-Airbus. Obviously, the A340-600 is going to have better operating economics than a 747-200. Also, the 747-400 fuel tank situation is not permanent and if my memory serves me correctly, it has already been dealt with. The A380 though does seem to fit the bill on some of SAAs more popular routes.

I would really like to see an honest side by side comparision of the the 747-400 and the A340-600. Does anyone have numbers? Also, how does the 747-400ER and the 747-800 stack up against it?

P.S. YES they ARE working on a 747-800.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
ILOVEA340
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 2:06 pm

Maybe just maybe we may see an A340-600 in ZRH  Smile Smile Smile or an A380  Smile... I won't get my hopes up  Sad
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 2:20 pm

"What is the point of mentioning the classic ? it is not relevent at all, and then to mention the 5 man cockpit, it is also not relevent."

Artsyman, SAA does operate Classic 747s.. and until recently they did to HKG, which is the direct comparison of the article.

If you read it a few times, you'll see its not as bad as you think.

CX747- The 747 fuel tank problem has to be fixed, or yeah its permanent. And its not a cheap fix... you have to fix every broken frame.

And no, they aren't working on a 747-800. Its been shelved, unless you can provide evidence that it hasn't been.

N
 
CX747
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Gigneil

Tue Feb 25, 2003 2:36 pm

Greetings, how have you been. We've gone a few rounds on this one. I have no reason to lie, and I don't paste false information. Boeing is indeed going forward with the 747-800 design. I find it remarkable that I made this very same response to your last statement about their not being a 747-800 in the works.

Here is the information for the second time.

Magazine: Aviation Week and Space Technology
Date: February 3, 2003
Found on: pg 42.

"Given Boeing's take on comparative market sizes, it is placing its money on the former, while trying to tide over the 747 design through the next decade with further enhancements -- what is now dubbed the 747-800."

The overall topic of the article is the 7E7. It states that in lieu of making a new Super Jumbo that Boeing is going to make the 7E7 and that its main competitor to the A380 during this decade is going to be the 747-800. Basically, the 747-800 is going to be the A380 competitor for the next decade or so.


As for the fuel tank problem. Yes, if you don't fix it, it is permanent. It isn't a permanent problem if you fix it. It's like a car tire. If it goes flat, it is going to stay flat until you fix it. If you fix it or replace it, then your back in action. As for overall cost, whether it's a fuel tank or a light bulb, parts for ALL airplanes are expensive.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
gigneil
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 2:46 pm

The 744 repair is substantially more expansive than many carriers will choose to make.

We'll just have to wait and see on the 747-800.

N
 
buckfifty
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RE: SAA To Order A380 Soon

Tue Feb 25, 2003 3:08 pm

The problem with the centre fuel tank is twofold. One is to find ways to prevent electrical arcing from wiring and components in the fuel tank, which is why the fuel pump in question must remain submerged in fuel in order for it not to ignite fuel vapours (and therefore fuel usage for the centreline tank must remain at a minimum). However, this issue can be dealt with easily, though the time and cost involved have been backing up these repairs, thus the directive remains.

The second issue is the more costly one, which is to find ways to cheaply inert the tanks so that no explosions would or can take place. Boeing's been working on a solution on this matter, and I believe it's currently going through the testing phases. As for the mechanics behind this system, I cannot explain.

The article is not pro-Airbus, I believe, because most of these statements seemed to be either pharaphrased or directly quoted from the SAA CEO during the interview. I suppose you could argue that SAA is currently going pro-Airbus, but what good would that do?

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