AvObserver
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Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 8:41 am

From the 3/11-17 issue of Flight International, page 8:

Airbus is looking at several long-term concepts for countering Boeing's proposed new 7E7-300X/400X, but with current thinking focused on replacing today's shorter-range A300/A310 family of aircraft, it may challenge Boeing at the opposite end if the future medium-size aircraft market.
The European manufacturer is stressing that any new development will come after the A380 ultra-large-airliner, which is due to enter service in early 2006, while near-term efforts are focused on putting the delayed A340-500 and A318 derivatives into service this year. Industry sources say it would be 2010 before Airbus could field a new 220- to 250-seat successor to the A310/A330, which has been tentatively designated the A305.
Boeing is initially focussing on developing a family of long-range aircraft, the 14,430km (7800nm) range 7E7-300X and 13,320km-range -400X stretch, seating 228 and 268 passengers, respectively. The U.S. manufacturer surveyed potential airline operators shortly before the 7E7 was officially announced and found two different camps: those needing an aircraft in the 11,000-14,800km range and another seeking around a 7400km performance.
It is understood the A305, while roughly similar in seat size to the 7E7-300X, would initially be designed to address the latter group of carriers. Airbus's strategy in the longer term, suggest the sources, would be to grow and possibly rewing the aircraft as a future replacement for the 10,360-11,840km range A330-200/300, which in its' current form will face stiff competition from the 7E7's promised extra range and better economics. Boeing's dilemma will be to either shrink the range of the 7E7 or convince carriers to misuse the aircraft over shorter distances.
Boeing is months away from defining the 7E7 and so far concedes only that "there will be two body lengths". According to Mike Bair, vice-president for Boeing's 7E7 program, "We're not done with the definition yet though already we think that Lufthansa would use it inside Europe, if they buy it, while others will take it across the Pacific".
 
BlatantEcho
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 11:18 am

seems this went unnoticed, lil *bump* for this guy

George
They're not handing trophies out today
 
DC10GUY
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 11:25 am

Like'em or Hate'em Airbus is real competition for Boeing.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
AC340
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 11:52 am

Can Airbus even afford another R&D program right now? They are going to have to compete with the 7E7 (assuming it ever gets beyond the planning stages) eventually. I think they are going to have to start to recover some of the 15 billion they invested into the A380 before they can undertake something as loft and ambitious as a new design.

Just my $0.02
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 3:08 pm

Well, arguably it won't be an "all new" design.

It will hopefully be a family of aircraft, this time spanning all the way from the A310 size to the A330-300 size and perhaps just a tidge longer.

It will likely use the same fuselage as the A3[00,10,30,40], and will incorporate technologies from the A318, A340-500/600, and A380.

I certainly hope they offer two wings... which they also do now with the A340.

Airbus has a distinct advantage in that they could end up with a better family of aircraft than Boeing, with less time. By introducing an A305, then an A315, then retooling the A330-200 and -300 with all the improvements, they could have a broader scope of aircraft.

Not that I don't think the 7E7 will be great - I do. But Airbus is better at familying.

N
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 10:36 pm

It's not because Airbus is better at "familying". It's because they were the new comer. They started their A320/330/340 family within a three-year span. Then, of course they have a more current family than Boeing has. Boeing can only replace their current offerings when resources allow them to and the right time comes along. If twenty years from now, Airbus still has a more current family than Boeing, then your statement would be valid. The 7E7 and 777 will likely make the 330/340 family obsolete. By then, Airbus will have a huge hole between the 320 and 380. Airbus will need to develop two sub-families to meet the competition. Then Boeing can attack on the narrowbody front which in turn will force Airbus to work on the A320 replacement. Can Airbus afford to do three families right after they just completed the A380? If they can't, then their family might not look as rosy as they do now.
 
keesje
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 11:14 pm

The A330-200 is best in class now and for many years to come.

Airbus will likely come up with an improved version of the A330 (engines, cabin, weight, winglets, etc) in a few years, producing it for another 10-15 yrs till say 2020.

By 2010 it will be cheaper then the new 7E7 compensating styate of the art 7E7 advantages.



At the same time a dedicated shorter range A330 version should be proposed.

Lets hope Boeing goes for this segment too, and doesn't create another A330 the market isn't asking for.

Boeing should target the market, not Airbus.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Sinlock
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Thu Mar 13, 2003 11:16 pm

Boeing has 20 years of new ideas and technology to put in to its 767 replacement. And has learned a lot of things from Airbus's ideas.

My question is, In a span of 2 to 3 years how could Airbus build and aircraft that will truly put it ahead of 7E7? Even if they can do this, it will not be by a large amount maybe 1-2% but that is not large enough to be a "7E7 Killer"

My thoughts would to be revamp the 330 as best as I could and stop-gap Boeing with whole Airbus package. It worked the first time it might work again.


(In the end I don't care what planes the airlines buy, I'll be there to fix them)
 
BWIA 772
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 3:36 am


Airbus has an advantage as Boeing is trying to take aways this market or get a bigger piece of the pie in this segment.

To me this is what Boeing need to do.
7E7 and the 777 have flight deck commonality and improve on what Airbus has doen with the 330/340 family. They should also look at making the aircraft as a suitable replacement for the 300/310 family.

Look at the merging the 757 with the 737 family. Give it little bit more cargo space and have commonality with the 777 and 7E7.

Look at what Airbus did not get to right with the 380 and launch the 747NG which will aslo have flight deck commonality with the rest of the Boeing products as mentioned previously.


This can be done between the next 10- 15 years. Given the success of the 777, if the 7E7 follows suit Boeing will have a winner. Its not now about creating a direct competitor what Boeing has to do is raise the bar in terms of operating efficentcy and use...

Eagles Soar!
 
keesje
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 5:10 am

I don't expect Airbus will just sit & wait what happens when the 7E7 arrives in 2009. A330 will be improved.

A330 will probably still be a little bigger, cheaper, carry a lot more cargo, have commonality with A318-A380.

The fact 7E7 will fly a little further won't convince airline to switch to 7E7's (almost all airlines in need have probably bought the A330 already by then..). This is only relevant for a very limited number of citypairs in the 200/250 segment.

Boeing 7E7 going head to head with A330 will dramaticly reduce profit margins and push up 7E7 break-even above ... say 400-600 ?

I still have a slight hope Boeing will be corrected in time by the airlines & will go for a short / medium haul variant first.


"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 5:21 am

The reason Boeing can't family better is because only the 777 is FBW.

The 747-400ER has the 777 like cockpit (well, QF's don't, but the others do) but it still can't be rationalized to fly like a 777 since its not FBW.

I am positive Boeing will make the 7E7 FBW.

BTW, great shots of both the SriLankan A330 and the artist's conception of the 7E7. One is, and one will be, a beautfiul plane.

N
 
AFa340-300E
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 5:43 am

Hello,

Would anyone have the title of the FI article please? Also is it complete?


Thanks,

Best regards,
Alain Mengus
Air Transport Business [ATB]
 
mf3864
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 5:47 am

I see a lot of talk about A300/310 replacements. I thought the A330 family was the replacement? No? According to the Airbus website it is. To a neophyte they seem like they are similar size, twin-aisle twinjet.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:05 am

The A330-200 is much bigger than the A300 and much much bigger than the A310.

They're also much, much more capable aircraft.

Excess capability is NOT always preferred.

N
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:16 am

If FBW is such an important family feature for Airbus, then try to explain why about 15-20 of the current 320/330/340, such as AF, AZ, UA, KE, OZ, CZ, CX, SQ, MH, TG, KL, BA, MS, EK, BR, NH, VN, have also ordered the 777? That's about half of the 777 customers. Pilot training is cost, but it is a one-time cost. The recurring cost of operating an airplane day in and day out is a more important driver. If you think an airline will overlook a more efficient plane simply to save pilot training cost, then you are being way too naive.

[Edited 2003-03-13 22:35:04]
 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:30 am

Alain,

The title is "Airbus looks at long-term options to counter 7E7" and the above article seems to be complete.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:57 am

I think what Airbus will end up doing is the following:

Use the current A300B4-600 and A310-300 fuselage designs, but incorporate a new, lower-drag wing and install the latest-technology high-bypass engines. By using an all-new wing design, the result is that the wing can be much lighter than the A330-200 wing, but its aerodynamic design will allow Mach 0.86 ecnomical cruising speeds.  Smile
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:59 am

"If FBW is such an important family feature for Airbus"

Perhaps you meant to say "cockpit commonality" instead of "FBW"?

I myself often marvel at some Airbusphiles' absolute conviction that cockpit/spares commonality automatically & always outweighs the potential benefits of operating a mixed fleet.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:08 am

It is the FBW implementation that allows Airbus to feature the cockpit commonality. Since Gigneil said


The reason Boeing can't family better is because only the 777 is FBW.


That's why I used FBW instead of cockpit commonality.
 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:15 am

I highly doubt Airbus will only upgrade its A330 family. It would simply be a situation like the B747X vs the A380 or even the B767-400ER vs the A330-200 with only the newer product managing decent sales. Well that is if (and a big IF) the 7E7 lives up to its current promises.

My feeling (and nothing more) is that Airbus will launch a brand new product (as is mentioned in the article) and that it will form the basis of an A330-200, A330-300, A340-200 and A340-300 replacement. While I am sure it is sooner than Airbus would have wanted to, does it really have much of a choice?

Airbus could also hit with a non-traditional aircraft and blow the 7E7 out of the water but that is unlikely.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:20 am

And I used FBW because it normalizes the handling of the entire family of aircraft.

Cockpit commonality is an obvious and foregone conclusion.

Most modern airliners are of very similar efficiency. When you level the playing field, to where either aircraft can get the job done effectively, you need differentiators.

Airbus knows that the longer range 7E7 is aiming for a market for which there isn't much demand. They'll make their first plane serve the shorter range market.

N
 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:28 am

Gigneil,

Airbus knows that the longer range 7E7 is aiming for a market for which there isn't much demand. They'll make their first plane serve the shorter range market.

Well I am not so sure about that. IF (and at such an early stage, it really is a big IF) the 7E7 lives up to its current promises (efficiency and such), it will certainly act as a replacement to everything up to the size of the A340-300. While it will have transpacific range, I am sure it will be perfectly suitable as an A330-200/300 replacement.

The question is if there is really demand for a 7E7 type plane with a much shorter range? What are you suggesting, 6000-8000km?

Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-03-13 23:29:39]
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
racko
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:31 am

I think this depends much on the development of the airline business, if it recovers by 2004 or 2005 and their sales go up, I could imagine Airbus going for a completly new design, maybe even a revolutionary design. If the economy continues to slump, they'll update the A300 & A332 with a new wing.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:33 am

Yes. According to the article, there are airlines that want a shorter range derivative, 7400 kms or so.

This is all the A300 and A310 customers, and some 767 customers.

Boeing can focus on the top end, and Airbus will start at the bottom end. They'll then swap, presumably.


N
 
racko
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:35 am

"And I used FBW because it normalizes the handling of the entire family of aircraft."

That's it. Because the A320/A330/A340/(probably)A380 all handle quite similar thanks to FBW & Auto-trim, pilots can have type-ratings for the all types simultaneously and the cross-qualification takes just a few days. It's not a one-time cost, pilots being able to fly everything from 100-555 seats add great flexibility.
 
sllevin
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:38 am

To think that there's not going to be a 7E7 market is to assume that all the current 752/753/762/763 operators are not going to look to eventually replace their aircraft.

That's the market Boeing's targeted, and it's significant. The interesting question remains relative to shorter lines -- specifically, right now, neither Boeing nor Airbus seem to be interested in replacing the A300.

To say that the 7E7 won't be an improvement on the A330 is as silly as claiming that the A330 won't be an improvement on the 767 -- after all, the A330 came out just 12 years after the 767.

Steve
 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:39 am

Gigneil,

Yes. According to the article, there are airlines that want a shorter range derivative, 7400 kms or so.

This is all the A300 and A310 customers, and some 767 customers.

Boeing can focus on the top end, and Airbus will start at the bottom end. They'll then swap, presumably


But I am trying to think what airlines? There the high profile ones that have wanted a new short-range A300/A310 replacement for a long time, Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines, but I can't think of many more. Most of the others (Qantas, the US carriers) are likely to purchase the longer range aircraft and "misuse" them on shorter routes.

Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-03-13 23:42:38]
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:46 am

Racko,

If the economy continues to slump, they'll update the A300 & A332 with a new wing.

Well will it be competitive? As I mentioned above, I fear it would simply be a situation like the B747X vs the A380 or even the B767-400ER vs the A330-200 with only the newer product managing decent sales.

If the a revised A300 (as a short range plane) was such a great idea, I trust Airbus would have looked at it a long time ago but they haven't. Instead they seriously considered a longer-range the A330-500 (to be "misused on shorter routes") but we all know the way that went.

Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-03-13 23:47:52]
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:03 am

Find me a major airline that pool their 320 pilots with their 330/340 pilots. The nature of the pilot profession simply does not permit pooling pilots for short- and long-haul fleet. Therefore, the cost saving is a one-time thing. The retraining of pilots from one Boeing aircraft type to another Boeing type is longer than transition between 320, 330, and 340, but it's not a lot. If you still think cockpit commonality is such an important advantage, answer my previous question:


why about 15-20 of the current 320/330/340, such as AF, AZ, UA, KE, OZ, CZ, CX, SQ, MH, TG, KL, BA, MS, EK, BR, NH, VN, have also ordered the 777?


 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:06 am

Dynkrisolo,

There's only a single airline I can think of, Swissair. A32S and A330-200. I presume Swiss International Air Lines also do it but I guess it isn't exactly a "major" airline.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:15 am

Austrian does as well, as does Qatar.

I wouldn't say its in the nature of the pilot profession, but you might be right.

I think pilots would enjoy a few longhauls followed by some quick rotations in an A320. I know a couple myself that sure would, and get to thanks to 757/767 cross qualification.

N
 
racko
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:17 am

I guess with a new wing and up-to-date engines, it could come close to the performance of the 7E(ight?)7, while not matching it. Together with the commonality advantage, this just be enough to get enough sales for break-even and take away important sales from Boeing.

About a revised A300, I guess the market in the mid and late 90s wasn't big enough to give it the priority. The A380 is a challenge for Airbus and was in the focus of the Airbus R&D in the last years and probably still for the next year to come, plus they had the A345/6 to secure sales from the 777 threat. By 2004, Airbus will have enough free capacity to seriously consider the options of for an A306-replacement and start developing it, with more and more resources coming free from the A380.
 
racko
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:20 am

Pilots flying different types are not a very big issue between short-haul and long-haul planes, however with a possible short-haul widebody it will be very important. Pilots flying both the A320 Series and the A300-replacement will be a very common sight if Airbus goes this way. Just as an example, LH currently has 2 different pilot pools for the A300 and the A320 Series, however almost if not all routes served by the A300 are also served by the A320s. If they could have the same pool flying both planes, this would add flexibility and reduce costs.

[Edited 2003-03-14 00:23:56]
 
UN_B732
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:24 am

Many Airlines cry for a modern replacement in the A310 region. They can get a bit more with the 767/A330. But not as little as on the A310 with that range.
-Transaero Boeing 737-200
What now?
 
BA
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 8:34 am

The A330-200 is much bigger than the A300

That's not really true. The A330-200 is bigger. But they are still very similar in size.

In terms of capability, yes the A330-200 is a much more capable plane and more capability is not always good.

The 767-300/ER has been the most successful variant. Primarily because airlines found the 763's size more beneficial than the 762's size.

The 7E7 will clearly be a replacement for the 767 series.

I believe I heard the 7E7 will be available in 2 variants. The 7E7-200 and 7E7-300.

The 7E7-200 would be comparable with the 767-300 in terms of capacity while the 7E7-300 will be slightly larger than the 767-400ER.

Looks like Boeing is forgetting about replacing the 767-200's capacity. This makes sense. The 763's capacity has proven to be more practical than the 762's.

As for Airbus' counter. While we don't know anything yet. I predict the A305 to be based on the A300, with a new wing design, new engines, and made of lighter composites.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
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clickhappy
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:51 am

for me it doesn't really come down to which product is slightly better. In the next 10 years all of the American majors are going to be replacing 762's, 752's, and some 763's. Boeing is building a product for these customers. Most of the airlines will buy american.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 10:10 am

It doesn't sound like a monster 8000 nm plane IS being targeted at 762s, 752s, and some 763s.

The plane will be the size of 763, and have 2000 nm more range. Its being targeted at people that want to fly KUL-JFK with a 220 seat plane.

Who exactly is Boeing targeting that at?

My point is that Airbus will target it at the people you mention and Boeing is not.

N
 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 10:18 am

Gigneil,

The plane will be the size of 763, and have 2000 nm more range. Its being targeted at people that want to fly KUL-JFK with a 220 seat plane.

B7E7-300X: 228 seats in thee classes.
B7E7-400X: 268 seats in three classes.

I guess for a 2 class configuration (which most airlines will have), you can add 15-20%.

IMHO it will be also be clear A340-300 replacement.

Jeremiah

Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 11:28 am

Absolutely amazing! So some of you must be constantly taking note what each airline wants, while Boeing is in their dreamworld dreaming up some planes no one wants! Do some of you really believe that? Do you think Boeing has not been talking to the airlines? It is absolutely laughable. If Boeing is so out of touch with the market, then Airbus would not be talking about future options. Then this Flight International article would not have appeared.

One last time on the cockpit commonality. It's a nice feature, but it's not a big deal. The fact is the pay structure of commercial pilots are still very much tied to the aircraft type at most of the airlines. As a result, mix-type flying will not be a common practice in any forseeable future. Because it's not a big deal, that's why nearly half of the 777 customers are also operators of the A320/330/340. The Airbus cockpit commonality is not enough to rule out the 777 for those airlines. This is a fact. Just by repeating this Airbus apparent advantage while few ailrines do, or can, take advantage of it does not change what the reality is.

The 777 with only three years of technological advantage over the 340 has successfully suffocated the 340 program. Now the 7E7 with more than ten years of technological advantage over the 330 will sure have a very significant impact on the 330/340 line to say the least. It is a foregone conclusion that Airbus will have to respond. Whether Airbus can outsmart Boeing, we will have to wait to see what Airbus can come up with. As an engineer, I can assure you by updating the 330 will not get Airbus anywhere. Like someone has said, it would be like Boeing updating the 764ER and 747X, it didn't get Boeing anywhere.
 
IndianGuy
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 12:08 pm


I frankly couldn’t understand the reasoning behind the 7E7 in the first place. Isnt it rather close to the 767/777? Would’nt re-engining the 767 and installing a new cockpit and avionics to provide commonality with the 777 be more economical instead of launching an all new model?

Anyways, I don’t think Airbus needs to launch an all new program to develop an alternative. Couldn’t the existing A300/310 platform be reengined and equipped with the FBW system (a sort of A300NG), and perhaps a new wing? A new wing would help increase cruise speed from M0.80 of the current 300/310 series to around M0.84 and could easily give a 6000-9000 kms range perfect for the kind of routes operated by the A300/310s as well as 767’s now. It would be much cheaper than an all new program.

-Roy

 
teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 12:22 pm

I frankly couldn’t understand the reasoning behind the 7E7 in the first place. Isnt it rather close to the 767/777? Would’nt re-engining the 767 and installing a new cockpit and avionics to provide commonality with the 777 be more economical instead of launching an all new model?

Well look at what has happened in the past:

B767-400ER vs A330-200: Newer product was the only one to generate any real orders, causing the former to be dropped.
B747-400X vs A380: Same as the above

Only so much can really be done with an airframe and I guess the 767 is now at its end. In fact, I am confident that if it only re-engined etc. the 767, it would get much slack for "beating a dead horse"... Moreover, look at the number of orders the plane has been losing due to its cargo issues.

IF the 7E7 lives up to its promises (and I can't underscore the IF enough), it will be a perfect replacement for the 767-200ER, 767-300ER, A330-200, A330-300, A340-300 and perhaps even some early B777-200ER aircraft. Many of the early ones will be well over 15 years old by 2008. I'd hardly call that a limited market.

Airbus must truly be wishing that Boeing stuck to the Sonic Cruiser. BTW, previous posts of mine don't show that I speak as a die-hard Boeing fan.

Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-03-14 04:24:46]
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 12:40 pm

Would’nt re-engining the 767 and installing a new cockpit and avionics to provide commonality with the 777 be more economical instead of launching an all new model?

Nope, because you'd still have the 767's lackluster cargo capabilities as well as the stigma of being associated with a dying aircraft family.






B767-400ER vs A330-200: Newer product was the only one to generate any real orders, causing the former to be dropped.

The 764ER is still very much in-production and new deliveries could be issued if ordered. Perhaps you're thinking of the proposed 764ERX, which died alongside the [original] 747X?
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BA
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 12:41 pm

IMHO it will be also be clear A340-300 replacement.

777-200ER is the A340-300's competitor. The 7E7 will be considerably smaller even though that rendering makes it big.

Unless they come out with a 300-seat 7E7 (which would not make sense as it would be a competitor with the 777), the 7E7 will never be an A340-300 replacement.

Airlines are not going to be looking for A340-300 replacements until at least 2015-2020.

Those that DO replace earlier (if they want to standardize with 777s or A345s for example), will replace them with 777s or A340-500s. Not 7E7s.

Basically, the 7E7 is going to be a long range 230-260 seat market. It's going to cover the market in between the 757 and 777 which is a relatively big gap.

Looks like for now, Boeing is forgetting about a 767-200 replacement probably due to success issues. The 762 wasn't nearly as big of a success as the 763.

Regards
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 12:52 pm

It's true that this aircraft does indeed have considerably more range than the 767 series.

However, I think there is a good reason for this. Long-haul routes on aircraft the size of the 763ER, A332, and A342 have become increasingly popular. There are some long-range markets that are better served with 230-260 seat aircraft than 300-seat aircraft like the A340-300 and 777. As I'm sure you all know, aircraft seating ranges greatly depending on the airline. There are some airlines that have only 260 seats on there 777-200s. I'm talking about a typical seating layout.

The 7E7 will allow new ultra-long range routes to be operated that are too big for the 777-200.

The way I see it, the 7E7-300X (the 228-seat version) will be more popular than the stretched 7E7-400X simply because the market for a 200-seat long range aircraft is perhaps greater than the 270-seat market.

It would be good if Boeing does 2 versions, a basic and an extended range version as they have for the 767-200/300.

My key question is what will the future of the 757 be. I find the 7E7 to be too large and too heavy to replace the 757. Perhaps the 757 itself will be updated.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 1:16 pm

Interesting article . I love all these competition . More great planes to come from both manufacturers . Big grin
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teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 1:19 pm

BA,

777-200ER is the A340-300's competitor. The 7E7 will be considerably smaller even though that rendering makes it big.

Unless they come out with a 300-seat 7E7 (which would not make sense as it would be a competitor with the 777), the 7E7 will never be an A340-300 replacement.


268 seats in a 3-class configuration is damn close to the A340-300 (10% less than Airbus' suggested thee class).

Airlines are not going to be looking for A340-300 replacements until at least 2015-2020.

So an airline that introduced the A340-300 in 1995 will only be looking for a replacement 20 to 25 years later? I somehow doubt that and expect quite a few A340-300's to come up for replacement in the near future.

Those that DO replace earlier (if they want to standardize with 777s or A345s for example), will replace them with 777s or A340-500s. Not 7E7s.

I doubt any airline will replace an A340-300 with a -500, if their range requirement remains the same. Looking at the efficiency the 7E7 is promising (costs considerably lower than even the 777-200), I bet quite a few airlines would compromise a few % capacity.

A plane does not have to perfectly replace an older one. Airlines adapt to aircraft and if Boeing keeps its promises, I trust that many potential 777/340 operators will adapt to the 7E7.

Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-03-14 05:32:29]
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teahan
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 1:27 pm

My key question is what will the future of the 757 be. I find the 7E7 to be too large and too heavy to replace the 757. Perhaps the 757 itself will be updated.

I would expect the 757 replacement to come in the the new Boeing narrowbody shorthaul family (737NG replacement) whenever that comes along. Perhaps not tomorow but surely by 2015.

Well I have to be off to bed but I look forward to continuing this debate tomorow.

Jeremiah

[Edited 2003-03-14 05:28:33]
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gigneil
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 2:18 pm

Dynkrisolo-

Yes, actually, I'm trying to say I think Boeing might be designing in a vacuum on this one, just like some of their future stillborn planes. Its not uncommon for companies to design things and force their customers to like it, in fact, it seems to frequently be the norm.

The article discusses a clear response from customers for both short and long range 200-250 seat aircraft. There are already longish range planes that can cover the 250 seat and up range, that are also modern and efficient. Logic dictates that its best to launch a product against the weakest possible competition, if its determined there is a market at all. Therefore, common sense sorta goes along with replacing the 757/767/A300/A310 with a modern plane that has similar capabilities and new efficiencies, and no current modern competition.

The longer range -400X will compete with the A330-200, 300 and the 772ER on some level.

I have no doubt the plane will be a success. I will also point to Boeing product marketing's recent lack of ability to get a popular project off the ground. The plane will be MORE successful if they position it correctly, and time their product launches correctly. Doing it either way WILL work, but optimization is indicated in today's economy.

XO

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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 2:35 pm

Teahan,

268 seats in a 3-class configuration is damn close to the A340-300 (10% less than Airbus' suggested thee class).

The A340-300 seats 295 passengers in a typical 3-class layout. That's very close to the 777's 301 passengers in a typical 3-class layout. 268 is still quite a bit off not to mention that Boeing's layout is higher than the true typical.

So an airline that introduced the A340-300 in 1995 will only be looking for a replacement 20 to 25 years later? I somehow doubt that and expect quite a few A340-300's to come up for replacement in the near future.

That's right. Long-range aircraft are not replaced in 15 years. By the time the 7E7 comes out, airlines that have had the A340-300 since 1995 will be only 13 years old. That's not enough to start looking for a replacement.

Aircraft last a lot longer than 15 years. Typically 20-25 years for the average airline before they are replaced.

The A340-300 is still not an old aircraft Teahan. Please don't tell me it's old, because it isn't.

I doubt any airline will replace an A340-300 with a -500, if their range requirement remains the same. Looking at the efficiency the 7E7 is promising (costs considerably lower than even the 777-200), I bet quite a few airlines would compromise a few % capacity.

The A340-500 has many advantages over the A340-300 besides range. Those that are looking to standardize there fleet with a more capable aircraft in terms of performance will definately go with A340-500s to replace there A340-300s at some point. Many airlines are unsatisfied with the A340-300's performance. You may think that a long take-off run is okay since the major airports of today can handle the A340-300's long take-off roll. However, you must also realize that a longer take-off role means more wear and tear on the tires and undercarriage. In the long run, there are many benefits of the A340-500's increased performance. Airlines that don't need the A340-500's range will still go for it for it's superior performance.

A plane does not have to perfectly replace an older one. Airlines adapt to aircraft and if Boeing keeps its promises, I trust that many potential 777/340 operators will adapt to the 7E7.

I never said they wouldn't adapt to it. I just do not see it as an A340-300 replacement. Nor do I see satisfied airlines looking to replacing there 13-year A340-300s......
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RE: Airbus Looks At Long Term Options To Counter 7E7

Fri Mar 14, 2003 2:54 pm

Nor do I see satisfied airlines looking to replacing there 13-year A340-300s......

I do. Alot of airlines roll their fleets over quickly, with some airlines rarely operating new-bought aircraft for more than 15 years. Examples includes SQ, EK, SW.

Most airlines that bought passenger MD-11's in the early 90's have now retired them or shortly will, after roughly 10 years in service. The 7E7-300 will be a good replacement for the 763/313 as well as early model 342/343's.

Incidently, airwaysnewsonline/com is reporting this week that Boeing is considering the '808' name for the 7E7 (as opposed to 787).





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