wolfpacker
Posts: 343
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 1999 2:35 am

Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 4:45 am

IF United liquidates it is going to be very rough going for Boeing and Airbus.
Boeings will be better off due to the military contracts it has. I don't know what military aircraft Airbus makes.

Although there are 100s of aircraft parked in the deserts this is going to make it much worse for the aircraft makers. How much? Who knows!

 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 5:28 am

A Ch. 7 filing by United would affect more than just Airbus and Boeing. It would affect all of the aircraft leasing companies (GEACS. ILFC, Pembroke, Bavaria, SALE, and many others), because the market value of many of their aircraft in their portfolio will have lower due to a large number of those types entering the market at one time. There will be a glut of Airbus narrowbodies (A319/320), and a large number of Boeing types (both narrow and widebody) on the open market. This will be very much like the situation was in the early 90s when there were large numbers Boeing and MDD a/c after the collapses of Eastern, Pan Am, and Midway.
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 5:49 am

UA going under would be about the worst thing that could happen for Boeing, Airbus, and the leasing companies.


The A32x and the 77x are among the hottest-selling aircraft either manufacture offers, and UA operates more of each type than any other airline!!!
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 5:55 am

UA is Airbus largest customer and the leading operator of 777s. If UA collapses, I could see Boeing and Airbus buying up parked (older 737s, 757/767s, MD-80s, F100s) aircraft from the desert to chop them up. As strange as that may sound, that may be the only way these companies can keep the market from collapsing following the release of 600+ late model aircraft onto the market.
 
ual777contrail
Posts: 2914
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2002 11:33 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:11 am

600 late model aircraft into the market? Do you think the age of UNITED'S planes are comparable to NW? UNITED Has one of the youngest fleets in the sky.


ual 777 contrail
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:14 am

Ual777Contrail,

Late model= new.
 
ual777contrail
Posts: 2914
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2002 11:33 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:15 am

guess it means something else here.

ual 777 contrail
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:31 am

hate to tell ya, but that's what it means all over the world

But wow, sixty+ 777s and hundreds of A32x. This is gonna be a NIGHTMARE for the manufacturers... but way fun for non-industry spectators to watch!  Big grin
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:33 am

Maybe the President will promise us:

"...a chicken in every pot and 777 in every garage."
 
ScottB
Posts: 5413
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:43 am

Generally late-model (especially when applied to cars) means relatively new (as in the latest model).

I could certainly see United's 737-300 and -500 fleets being picked up by WN and/or CO for the short to medium term if the lease rates were right, especially if either were to attempt to fill the vacuum created by a hypothetical UAL liquidation (i.e. CO at DEN, more WN at LAX or back at SFO, etc.). United's PW-powered 757's would be a good fit for Delta, especially if Song is successful. If CO, DL, AA, or NW (or some permutation) were to take over the LHR or AA), Japan">NRT routes, I imagine that some of the 767's and 777's would be needed (and possibly some 747-400's in the case of NW). I don't know if I see B6 taking UA's A320's though I can see at least some of them (or the A319's) ending up at HP, NW, F9, or US.
 
akelley728
Posts: 1964
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 1999 12:35 pm

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Tue Mar 25, 2003 6:45 am

guess it means something else here.

ual 777 contrail


Where is 'here'? Late model means almost new in all parts of the U.S.
 
trintocan
Posts: 2725
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:07 am

"Late", when referred to news or models of cars, planes and the like, does indeed refer to new or recent (eg latest model). A UA collapse would indeed create considerable havoc in the aircraft market given the size of its young fleet of planes. Then again, some smaller operators may get the chance to buy newer jets and thus take advantage of the lower prices - of course that would not bode well for the older planes in the desert. Ironically, though, the depreciation of the prices for the older birds may yet make them viable to other carriers.

It would be interesting to see what happens.

TrintoCan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
brons2
Posts: 2462
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2001 1:02 pm

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:11 am

Maybe the President will promise us:

"...a chicken in every pot and 777 in every garage."


SWEET! Where do I sign up??
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:21 am

I agree with you Trintocan. That is why I could see perfectly good airplanes from the desert being chopped up. During the Great Depression, the US government destroyed plenty of milk and food so that prices would recover thus putting farmers back in business.

I don't know if 'interesting' is the word I would use to describe the situation if United actually does fold. I think ruinous might be more apropos.
 
atcboy73
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2001 10:09 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:28 am

That whole "late-model" term has always messed me up too.  Smile
 
speedport
Posts: 269
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2001 12:08 pm

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:31 am

Forgot about chickens, how about doing something to promote jobs.

From the AP:

"Bush believes the industry must restructure itself and is willing to let market forces determine which airlines will survive, the official said Tuesday, noting that market forces will cause the airline industry to restructure through bankruptcy proceedings."

Like father, like son.

Maybe I will need that chicken after all.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:37 am

As much as I love airlines particularly United Airlines, I can think of few worse uses of taxpayer money than propping up failing air carriers. It will only hamper the recovery of 'healthier' carriers and will injure sensibly organized companies like Southwest and Jetblue.

 
DALelite
Posts: 1318
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 7:00 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 9:03 am

ey! UAL is still here!!


DALelite
They loved to fly and it showed..
 
na
Posts: 9129
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 8:01 pm

A collapse of UA will be a serious blow especially especially for the 777 program.
Airlines like PIA will go mad not to have waited a few months with their decision to aquire Triple Sevens.

Despite the bleak market outlook I can see that the majority of the 744s will be placed somewhere else though quite soon, 7 are going to Thai already, some might be used by Boeing to start the F-conversion program, NWA might pick up some to take over the Pacific routes.
 
godbless
Posts: 2680
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2000 5:26 am

RE: Aircraft Market Post United

Wed Mar 26, 2003 9:28 pm

Where is 'here'? Late model means almost new in all parts of the U.S.
Sorry dude, but not ment to offend you but I am not in the US of A but it does also apply to me. You gotta think where all those American widebodies go when they have fuel for 8+ hours of flight. Insane

The capacity of UA is roughly what needs to be taken out of the market (overcapacity) so if they go under I see big problems since the other airlines won't be able to pick up all of their planes and anyways they all have their own problems to deal with.
For sure many airlines would want to have lower leasing rates on their fleets.
I just hope that won't happen.

Max