LV
Topic Author
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ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sat Apr 19, 2003 3:45 pm

Here we go with the disclaimer:
I'm going to get flammed for just bringing up the possibility....I know that already. It is not set in stone, they haven't even filed for chapter 11....blah blah blah..... But you have to admit, that little Golden Parachute flub might be the nail in the coffin for AA....so here we go.


What happens at ORD if AA goes CH7? It was easier to speculate when we thought it was going to be UA because I said AA was just going to pull everything out of that red headed step child of theirs called STL and move everything up I-55 to defend the Chi town fortress (for those who are not familiar with American slang "red headed step child" refers to something unwanted or was wanted at one time but no longer important). Now, if AA goes under, UA doesn't have a hub its not to fond of to just shut down, except maybe pulling some stuff from IAD.


The second part of the hypothecial question. What happens to DFW. I leave that one wide open. I heard someone mention DL shutting down SLC and moving some resources over from the MCO mini hub but Im not so sure about this.....


Everyone's thoughts?
 
kimmykun
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sat Apr 19, 2003 4:23 pm

And on the same topic, what about SJU? I mean, I know SJU is AA's smallest hub (and is more of an American Eagle hub than AA mainline), but with all the talk about AA possibly going Chapter 7, I can't help but wonder what would happen. I don't know enough to speculate on it myself.
 
ouboy79
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sat Apr 19, 2003 5:41 pm

SJU & MIA could very well become US hubs...if anything were to happen. They are #2 behind AA now and growing very fast.

At any rate...American isn't going anywhere. I just hope the FA's are ready to bend over and feel the wrath of Chapter 11.
 
Scott4AA
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sat Apr 19, 2003 11:19 pm

I'm sure DL would try and fill up the void AA would leave in DFW. But there is no way they could take it all, i would imagine one of AA's terminals would be left empty, as DL would couldn't take both.
American Airlines - We Know Why You Fly
 
blink182
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 12:34 am

Why are you bringing up this topic? AA hasn't even declared bankruptcy yet  Pissed ! Only kidding  Smile.

ORD is bound to be filled by someone, perhaps Northwest, Delta, Continental, or (gasp) even Jet Blue? More than likely, it would be ATA.

DFW is trickier. There is AA, then there is Delta, and then there is everyone else. While I could see Delta pulling resources to build up DFW and being successful, I really cannot see them taking AA's full share. I think Northwest could maybe do something since they do not have a real presence in the South. Hopefully, AA stays in business.

There is always Continental and Southwest, but Southwest is content at DAL and Continental dominates 200 miles south.

blink
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
 
LFutia
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 2:10 am

I don't think NW would be filled but they'd prolly get a few more gates since they have their hubs in MSP and DTW both fairly close to ORD.

Delta, Maybe they'll pull out of CVG and come to ORD but they also have their hubs in ATL and SLC.

Continental -- Their hubs in EWR,CLE and IAH. People know that CO might be pulling out of CLE and starting in DEN. I could see them moving to ORD.

Jet Blue -- it would be good to have an LCC since jet Blue already has a hub in JFK, I could see them ordering new planes and starting svc from ORD to Midwest cities.

Leo/ORD
Leo/ORD -- Groetjes uit de VS! -- Heeft u laatst nog met KLM gevlogen?
 
dutchjet
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 4:00 am

If AA goes down........

1. DL will build up sevice at DFW, look for it to pick up many ex-AA 738s and 757s (espcially the PW powered versions) to increase service.....if AA were to liquidate, DL could pick these aircraft up at bargain prices.

2. Assuming UA is still around, it will build up in Chicago, possibily closing IAD in the process.

3. US may try to make something out of St. Louis, focus city or a mini-hub, to increase its share of transcon service.

4. NW, DL and CO will split up AA's LHR slots, and introduce service from their repsective hubs or gateways to LHR. DL will add some transatlantic service from DFW and UA from ORD to replace AA, and that will be about it. DL and UA will increase transcon services out of JFK, BOS, etc to make up some of the loss, and CO will try to step into the NYC-Carib market in a very big way.

5. The crown jewel in the AA system, the MIA hub and the latin american/carib route system (which, remember, is ex-BN and ex-EA) is a major discussion point......CO would love to have it as it would complement their existing services out of IAH and EWR, NW would be interested, as would DL and UA. Aircraft to operate these routes could be purchased out of the AA liquidation, 757s, 767s and 777s would be available in huge numbers, all at bargain prices, for any of the airline to start up service. Its very interesting.

However, AA will not liquidate........but remember, one of the problems is that there is far too much capacity in the US airline system at the moment, and if a carrier was to fail, only a small part of its services would be replaced....the idea is to take capacity out of the system so that the other carriers can survive.
 
ual777contrail
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 5:16 am

DL/NW/CO cant split up the LHR slots, under the M. Act

UA would use a lot of ORD to keep the competition out.
they wont close IAD, maybe downgrade it but never close it.

US will take MIA before CO,or NW.

ual 777 contrail
 
dutchjet
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 5:26 am

I understand that the LHR slots cannot simply be split up among 3 other carriers.......but I do believe that if AA or UA were to liquidate (which I dont believe for one second by the way), some modificiation would be made to the bi-lateral agreements that would allow the LHR slots to be divided among several US carriers. Remember, TWA sold its LHR slots to AA long before it was acquired by AA, and PA sold its LHR slots to UA long before it went out of business, so what effect a US airline going out of business would have on its LHR slots would be a "new issue".

 
MxCtrlr
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 5:37 am

The bottom line is that, if either UA or AA goes completely (which could go either way right now), it will keep the other one from going. Both of them going will not happen.

Depending on which one goes (if either of them), DFW or ORD would survive as other carriers would take up the slack, without adding to the problem (overcapacity). Certainly, the local economy would reel from the initial shock but it does come back - MIA, ATL and JFK proved that in 1990/1991 when EA and PA went hasta la bye-bye!

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
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MxCtrlr
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 5:38 am

The bottom line is that, if either UA or AA goes completely (which could go either way right now), it will keep the other one from going. Both of them going will not happen.

Depending on which one goes (if either of them), DFW or ORD would survive as other carriers would take up the slack, without adding to the problem (overcapacity). Certainly, the local economy would reel from the initial shock but it does come back - MIA, ATL and JFK proved that in 1990/1991 when EA and PA went hasta la bye-bye!

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool
DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
 
srbmod
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 7:56 am

If AA and/or UAL were to go under ORD would probably become either a Delta or Continential hub (replacing CVG or CLE), ATA wouldn't move over there since they've invested so much into renovating parts of MDW. Would Southwest spread a little LUV by moving into ORD, not likely. As for DFW, I see someone like AirTran moving in (DFW is the perfect city for running 717s, not too many cities are out of its' range) and maybe Delta downsizing SLC and also increasing Delta Connection ops as well. I think that Delta would look to beef up their LAX ops and maybe grow SFO into a mini-hub especially if United went under.
 
LV
Topic Author
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RE: ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down

Sun Apr 20, 2003 10:54 am

The focuse was on if AA went bye bye. UA seems fine now and that if AA goes down it will survive