UALPHLCS
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Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:04 am

Got this from our internal news letter:

Operations Update: Performance Remains Excellent
----------------------------------------------------
United employees continue to turn in goal-surpassing
and industry-leading operational performance.

"Our performance continues to be terrific," says
Pete McDonald, executive vice president-Operations.
"And not just with on-time departures, but with
customer satisfaction ratings, too. First-quarter
customer service representative ratings for courtesy
and helpfulness and flight attendant service are the
best we've had in 10 years. Customers are telling
us that companywide we're performing better than
ever."

Here are some specifics on United's April 1 - 23
operational performance:

* Departures on-time :00 at 79.9 percent exceed the
April target by 14 points and are better than the
same time last year by 8 points.

* Departure completion rose to 99.3 percent against
the goal to complete 99 percent of all scheduled
departures. Controllable completion month-to-date
is 99.7 percent and reached 100 percent on April 17.

* STAR on-time :00 performance reached 87.9 percent,
10 points above goal and 5 points above the same
time last year. STAR performance is on track to
match or beat the best-ever monthly performance of
87.9 percent that was set last September.

United Express (UAX) turned in its best performance
in months. For the week of April 17 - 23 departure
on-time :00 performance rose three points to 78
percent; controllable completion rate was close to
perfect at 99.6 percent; STAR departures were on
time 86 percent of the time; and the UAX mishandled
bag rate was the best for 2003 at 6.5 per 1,000.

The company's Cargo Performance Index (CPI) for
April 13 - 19 was slightly below goal at 94.9
percent, surpassing April 2002 performance by 7.6
points.

----------------------------------------------------
Front-line Employees Lead the Way on Improved
Marketrak Ratings
----------------------------------------------------
As noted above, customers are pleased with more than
United's on-time performance. Marketrak ratings for
the first quarter of this year were strong, with
significant improvements in a number of categories
that drive customer satisfaction. Leading the way
was Customer Service representative courtesy and
helpfulness, which was at its highest first-quarter
level in 10 years and higher than any full-year
rating over that same period. Flight attendant
service was at its highest quarterly rating ever in
the past 10 years, while Reservations service
remained above goal.

The North America rating for Customer Service
representative courtesy and helpfulness rose 7.2
points in the first quarter to 61.3 percent,
compared with the same period last year.
Internationally, CSR ratings for the quarter were up
6.6 points to 62.4 percent.

"We have been working hard to improve CSR courtesy
and helpfulness ratings for several years and have
seen a steady upward trend since 2001," explains
Larry De Shon, senior vice president-Airport
Operations. "With role-playing about how to handle
oversold flights and other stressful situations, we
have provided tools and training to help CSRs on the
job. We also have communicated the importance of
every customer to United's recovery effort. The
response from CSRs has been tremendous, putting us
in position to have one of our best years ever if we
can maintain our current momentum."

The category of check-in efficiency also showed
significant movement, with an increase of 5.2 points
in North America and 7.2 points for international.
According to Market Research, the improvement is due
in part to CSR efficiency and in part to the
deployment of more EasyCheck-in units.

Marketrak ratings for flight attendant service,
which have been consistently high for many months,
also reached a 10-year high in the first quarter.
The North America rating was up 2.9 points to 59.2
percent, while International flight attendant
ratings were up 1.9 points to 60.1 percent.

"Our flight attendants are working harder than
ever," says Charlie Ahmes, managing director-Onboard
Service, "and we are very proud of the high level of
service they have maintained, despite many
distractions. We have supported their efforts in
tangible ways, by enhancing the role of pursers,
providing them with additional tools, conducting
more frequent performance meetings and establishing
teams to focus on how to better serve customers in
specific markets, such as the Atlantic and Pacific.

"Most important, though," he continues, "are the
intangible qualities flight attendants bring to each
interaction with our customers. By being themselves
with customers and relying on their individuality,
our flight attendants are playing a key role in
maintaining customer loyalty to United during these
critical times."

Overall, Reservations Services Marketrak ratings for
the first quarter continued to meet their customer
satisfaction goals. Reservations employees
sustained their high level of performance at one
point above goal for North America and 3 points
above goal for International.

Tony Bedalov-director-Reservations Sales and
Operations, notes, "This is quite an accomplishment,
given the multitude of events that have impacted
Reservations and other front-line employees,
including the Iraq war, SARS and the financial
challenges facing the industry."


//// UNITED Will Stand
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:09 am

Thanks for posting that here UALPHLCS. I'm sure we won't hear about that good news anywhere else. Afterall, it's good news.

//// A G R E E D,
DIA
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
flyf15
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:10 am

Thats great and all, but are they making money?
 
B747-437B
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:16 am

Thats great and all, but are they making money?

Sssshhhhhhhhh.... don't bust the bubble.

///U N I T E D will stand etc...

Get with the program! Big grin
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:31 am

IS Anyone but WN making money?

However, UA's strong preformance gets people in the door, and makes them more likely to repurchase next time. It repairs the damage inflicted by the "Summer of 2000." It slows the loss signifigantly.

If UA is losing money at a slower rate than its competitors than when the economy begins to rebound and the summer season is upon us, UA will begin to turn a profit sooner.

In addition would WN be profitable if they did not have a reputation for good service? Deserved or not, WN's reputation for ON-time and good service helps people get over the fact that they are riding around in a no-frills operation. As people have often noted WN's prices are not what they used to be, and the majors prices have come down as well. I

f price no longer plays a major role in a hypthetical purchase then service becomes the next purchase indicator. If the Majr airline has got the service reputation to match or exceed the LCC, then the major will get the passenger.

Bottomline is that service is as important as price in a customer's mind.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:40 am

So what r u saying B747-437? UA is not going to survive? Currently all the indicators show that the hysterical pessimism in January and February was blown way out of porportion.

Where you one of those who said UA would be dead by now? Now we show conflicting evidence and its all in our minds? "We don't want to break thier bubble?" What bubble? That UA is now in a position to grow stronger again? Why is it that CO is the only airline that people allow to return from Chapter 11? US has done it.

I cited reasons that UA's strong preformance matters to the bottom line. All you come up with is a post that inflates your post numbers.

If you have something to contribute to the discussion like flyf15 did then fine. If all you want to do is add childish background noise go into the non-aviation section. Let the adults have a discussion.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:42 am

I think UA will be one of the first airlines to make a major recovery, mostly because the airline was among the first to immediately take all necessary steps to get their costs down. It really helps that UA is a founding member of Star Alliance, by far the best-integrated airline alliance in the world.
 
kellmark
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:20 am

These kinds of press releases certainly help, but they don't necessarily mean anything except that the airline is running well, but not whether it is recovering financially. These press releases look like they were written by the same guy who used to write them for Eastern Airlines. It also ran a great operation with a high completion factor and far fewer passenger complaints. The only problem was, the company was running out of cash at the time. Now, I am not saying that I want United to go out of business, or that it is not important to run a good airline operationally. It is. When people are challenged, they often do their best work. But with that the cash has to come in or all of the rest just doesn't matter.
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 8:28 am

Again I understand that this is an internal Company newsletter. I mentioned that in the original post. But, I really can't understand how you can say that operations do not affect the bottomline.

The better UA does the better the intent for repurchase, the better for the bottomline.

You can only cost cut a company so far. After that the company has t preform well to make money.

The SARS outbreak appears to be getting under control. The war in Iraq is fundementally over, and summer is on the way. UA's preformance is putting it in great position to take advantage of the improving situation.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
travelin man
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 8:44 am

I'm definitely happy for United. As UALPHLCS said, the more people that have a good experience on United (on-time, happy employees, etc.), the more they will come back. I have to say that I think the significantly reduced schedule of all airlines has helped with the on-time performance (not that crowded anymore).

I truly wish United well. As a former Premier Executive (don't have status because I don't fly as much anymore), I appreciate the service and network United provides. I definitely don't want to see them disappear!
 
Guest

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 9:17 am

Old Saying: "There's a pony in that pile of s_it somewhere".

Perhaps UA will stage the greatest comeback of an airline. We can hope so anyway. I say congrats to the employees of UA for maintaining a positive attitude (for the most part anyway-from the ones that I have had the occasion to deal with) in these tough times. Keep up the good work.
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 9:27 am

>>>If price no longer plays a major role in a hypthetical purchase...

These days, that's a -big- if.

One of the reasons, IMHO, that SWA, JBLU, and AirTran are making money not just their cost structures, but their pricing structures. An increasing number of people, especially business travelers, are no longer willing to get hit with high last-minute walk-up fares, and they're either not traveling, or looking for better values.

The old business model doesn't work any more...

ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
UALPHLCS
Topic Author
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 12:22 pm

My hypothetical was meant to highlight what preformance can do for an airline. In the real world All things are NOT equal. A guy could choose UA over WN not becasue of performance or price or FF mileage program but simply because he's traeling to the Northern suburbs and O'hare was more convienient.

Majors pricing has been coming down based on pressure from LCC's, and LCC's prices are creeping up based on rising labor costs and because they have a product in demand. There appears to be an uneasy ballance right now with LCC's and major carriers fares being roughly equal. Individual ruotes and deal vary wildly.
My hypothetical as simply stating that all things being equal a major carrier like UA generating big performance numbers can only help.

Performance is an important peice of the puzzle that customers use to choose a carrier. I NEVER said it was the only one.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
ual777contrail
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RE: Strong Performance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:49 pm

Everything runs in cycles, right now the low fares will thrive. Soon you will see the low fares become second shelf airlines again after the majors cut cost and get their budgets where they need to be.

United is doing better, so what if there are people on this forum who don't think so, big deal.


ual 777 contrail
 
artsyman
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:10 pm

STAR on-time :00 performance reached 87.9 percent, STAR performance is on track to match or beat the best-ever monthly performance of 87.9 percent that was set last September.
***********

I want to burst the bubble, UAL will not lead the industry this month. While I cannot be sure that Continental will win this month, I do know that Continental is a few % ahead of UAL for April. If all goes well for the last two days, Continental will be close to 90% for the month. At the moment we are at 88.5% ontime

Jeremy
ps, yes I know I am being petty and silly, well done to UAL also
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:28 pm

United's going to have to work hard to win back people like my parents, 10-year Mileage Plus members and international travelers, who were hit with arrogance after arrogance for years, and in 2002 turned to LCC's and AA. They won't let me book them on UA when they travel.

On-time performance and courtesy can only help. But how is UA on treating FF pax these days? I"ll never forget how UA refused to rebook them on another ORD flight after an LAX-ORD flight was canceled in 2001. They weren't paying, you see, they were redeeming FF miles. UA forced them to go through a less convenient hub (IAD) and forced them off their IAD-ROC flight for more fuel, made them overnight at IAD. Or the time they were made to sit all day at ROC during a mysterious unexplained 'mechanical problem' on an A319, at a time when the mechanics' union was fighting with management.

UA's got a great route system and outstanding alliance reach. If UA gets competent management, its unions cease treating customers like pawns in battles with management, and treats all customers well instead of just the highest-paying, it has as good a chance as any other network carrier of being a long-term survivor.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Thu May 01, 2003 10:11 am

Item 1) B747-437B must no have anything but childish things to say. He hasn't been back to engage in a meaningful conversation.

Item 2) Jim I can certainly understand your parents annoyance with past performance. I would be annoyed too. But how can a company win a customer back if they don't give them the chance? UA has turned a corner. Like Chrysler in the mid 80's they had to prove that thier quality had improved. UA can do the same, but they can't force people on the plane. I am SURE they have had similar exeriences with AA. Yet I bet they have been willing to brush them aside. This isn't to excuse the lack of understanding your parents had to cope with.

I am sure that if the situation had been handled better Your parents would have had a better experience. As my thread shows CS quality has improved dramatically since the experience of your parents.

AS for your last thoughts I think UA has shown for 4 months that it has competent management, much more compentent and honest than AA, a company you parents profess to like. The Unions have 6 year deals as of today, and all during the renegotiating process service went UP.

Employees and unions could have been very bitter over the paycuts we had to endure, but noone ever took that bitterness out on a customer. There have been no "strange mechanicals" No Crew delays.

//// UNITED Will Stand
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
ec
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Thu May 01, 2003 11:17 am

Not to diminish the accomplishment, but how many spare aircraft does UAL have at the moment? CO is kicking but this month. HP has a completion factor of 99.6% I believe, and OTP should come in at about 88% not too shabby. HP also just won best frequent flier program! They have come a long ways from a few years ago.
 
B747-437B
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Fri May 02, 2003 11:46 pm

B747-437B must no have anything but childish things to say. He hasn't been back to engage in a meaningful conversation.

B747 has been busy on the road doing real work. However, he spotted this fun item on the news this morning in Vancouver and couldn't resist posting it.

UAL posts biggest loss of all US carriers - $1.3 billion

"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
N79969
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Fri May 02, 2003 11:56 pm

They are killing a lot of cash...but on the other hand they are meeting lenders' terms and have secured sizeable concessions. It is hard to decipher what the endgame is here.
 
B747-437B
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Fri May 02, 2003 11:58 pm

So what r u saying B747-437? UA is not going to survive?

Damn straight I'm saying that. I always maintained that UNLESS UAL radically changes their business model, they will struggle to see the end of 2003 and I absolutely stand by statements.

$1.6b cash on hand, $1.3b quarterly loss... you do the math.

///U N I T E D.... Dying
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sat May 03, 2003 10:37 pm

Check out the other numbers B747, you like to focus on just one number. How about the cash burn number of $ 2 million a day. New work rules and and the wage reductions kick in in May amouting to a savings of $7 million a day. You do the math smart guy. The people who do this math for a living, UA DIP financers are happy with UA's progress.

We will see in a few months 747, barring any terrorist events on US soil UA will meet and surpass all of its DIP provisions this YEAR.

How can you be an aviation consultant you don't seem to be very informed about this subject.

A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
L-188
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sat May 03, 2003 10:51 pm

There are small south American governments that have smaller budgets then what UA lost.

I will admit that once you announce bankruptcy you will lose a fairly large portion of your clientele due to fear of your survival but to add that to a 1.3 billion dollar loss?

Compentent management is not what I am seeing there.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
UALPHLCS
Topic Author
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sat May 03, 2003 11:00 pm

In the press realse Tilton admits that UA was hurt by fears of chapter 7 incited by the press but he alos noted that UA's advance booking for the summer are way up and those fears are subsiding. Wall Street is regaining confidence int UA. Look at the recovery of the stock price.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
L.1011
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sat May 03, 2003 11:24 pm

I think its all uphill for United now. Look at their assets. The best of any US major. Great route system, great planes, great employees. If it weren't for moron-boy Steve wolf, United wouldn't have come close to Ch11.
//// UNITED WILL STAND
 
B747-437B
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 12:37 am

Check out the other numbers B747, you like to focus on just one number.

I am not going to argue with you, mainly because you probably won't even understand any reasoning I put forward. If you think that things at United are hunky-dory, then that is your prerogative. I wish you the best.

How can you be an aviation consultant you don't seem to be very informed about this subject.

I leave my clients to be the best judges of how informed I am on various issues. Regretfully, I doubt that you could afford my fees anyway on an IAM salary.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 1:28 am

Oh I see lets insult someone when we don't have a logical agrument to put forward on how a company will die when they are losing 2 mil a day and saving 7 mil. Yes i bet your clients are paying vast sums of money for your advice. If they don't you insult them.

Point out in any of my arguments where I said UA is hunky-dory. I havent even said UA is out of the woods yet. The most I've said is that UA is heading in the right direction and there is a light at the end of this tunnel.

I understand how you don't want to argue with me. You have no basis for your claim other than an emotional dislike for UA. That is evidenced by your flippant /// United dying. comment. Funny sure but got anything but snide comments to refute the mountains of evidence that UA is recovering?

I have made claims. I then backed up those claims with evidence. I have been optimistic, and backed it up with evidence.

You have leveled insults, and made assertions. And we are supposed to belive you because your clients pay you lots of money.

The best judge of your abilites is to look and see how often you've been wrong. Care to take a look and see. You where one of the one claiming UA would be liquidated by now. UA flies today. Care to come back and see if UA is flying 2, 6 months a year from now. Give me one, just one good reason, other than another terrorist attack, why UA will not be here in the coming months. I have acknowleged that in UA's position a terrorist attack would be devastating. But barring that there is NOTHING you can point to. You numbers just don't add up.

Try to answer with out insulting people or I will have it removed.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
UA744Flagship
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 3:18 am

B747-437B, UAPHLCS's set of questions is one I would love to see answered  Smile
no wire hangers!
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 3:24 am

Regretfully, I doubt that you could afford my fees anyway on an IAM salary.

Whoa!
Methinks Mendis just connected below the Gucci line!  Big grin Laugh out loud
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MD88Captain
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 10:04 am

From a "road show" with DAL flight ops management types 2 interesting tidbits came out:

1. UAL (according to DAL analysis) is a 50/50 chance for Chapter 7.

2. US Airways is still operating at a point which costs outpace revenue even after coming out of Chapter 11. Access to DIP financing may get cut off.
 
UALPHLCS
Topic Author
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 11:56 am

When was this DAL roadshow?

Like I always said about Gordon Bethune, getting info about a compteitor is like getting information from "Baghdad Bob." Its a bit slanted.

Granted UA will spin its story its own way, but I think it should be obvious that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Probably leaning to a recovery, for the reasons I gave above.

As for US's recovery, Some internal UA analysis wasn't as black as DAL but they did mention they believe US reemerged from Chapter 11 too quickly, and may run into trouble later.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
ouboy79
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 1:00 pm

US Airways had no choice on emergence. If they didn't do it by March 31st, they would have lost their Visa/MC merchant account and would have lost how many billions of dollars in sales. The March 31st deadline was also connected to the various exit financing and the ATSB loan. Regardless...King Dave (not to be confused with Austin) will see that the mighty Empire of Alabama gets a return on its investment. From all recent comments, he'll do that by growing and reshaping US Airways into a leaner, more efficient carrier with a right sized fleet.

To those at UAL...use the good news and turn it into positive figures at the bank. The better you do...the better US Airways will do...and the better my stock will do once I can repurchase it.  Smile
 
Guest

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 2:41 pm

A note of warning...

UA claims to have obtained 2.5 billion dollars in employee concessions (a combination of work rule changes and wage reductions).

If that is truly the case, why is it that in a side-by-side comparison AA's new contracts for machinists, FA's and pilots seem less generous? Even those United employees who post on USAviation.com openly acknowledge the fact that they think they did better than their AA counterparts.

Granted it seems like AA purposely or strategically undervalued many of the work rule changes that its work groups offered up. The number floated by one of the AA union groups is 2.2 billion dollars. That is what one union group actually thinks the concessionary contracts are worth to AA.

If that is the case, it makes one wonder how much in actuality the UA concessionary contracts are worth. Could UA have overvalued what some of the concessionary items were worth? This is afterall the same management team, except for Tilton, that overvalued what USAirways was worth.

Whatever the case, you can sure bet that the DIP bankers are probably in the process now of auditing the new contracts to determine their true value. My intuition tells me they are not really worth what United is saying they are worth. You heard it here first.
 
AA717driver
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Sun May 04, 2003 4:02 pm

Ladevale--To answer your questions about the AA contract, AMR didn't rape the employees, they just drugged us with the threat of bankruptcy, then had their way with us. UAL freefell into ch11 after 141M voted down the concessions. The AA unions didn't want to follow in their footsteps.

APA actually gave up about $800M rather than the $660M the company wanted because of the obscenely low valuations. APA did not want to be the union that put AA into bankruptcy. The TWU and APFA felt the same way(before Carty's little tap dance, that is!).

UALPHLCS--congrats on the on time performance. As a former employee of TWA which came in first in OTP, I know what the employees at UA have accomplished and how it feels to win. As you all remember, TWA held the #1 or #2 spot for several years, along with winning a couple of JD Power awards for service--shortly before running out of cash. Sorry, in the airline business, CASH IS KING. Just ask JP Morgan or Chase. Good luck.TC
FL450, M.85
 
keesje
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 12:32 am

It really helps that UA is a founding member of Star Alliance, by far the best-integrated airline alliance in the world.

? interesting, didnt know that.

From my information
- STAR alliances members are competing on many routes for the high yield business passengers.
- Thai and SQ like each other .. to leave STAR
- The inflight & ground products offered by UA, Austrian, LH, SQ and Thai seem very differrent last time I flew them.

KLM/NWA
- offer a consistent product specification accross the network
- have a fully integrated network
- share all costs & benefits across the network in a JV
- have fully divided sales operation accross the world

But hey, perhaps I see it all wrong you have additional info ..

rgds
keesje


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MD88Captain
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 2:10 am

That DAL roadshow was last week. But in fairness I never believe anything those guys have to say anyway. A great deal of time was spent defending management salary increases and bonuses (not to mention the senior executive golden retirement packages). When a guy defends the undefendable you know right away that he's a stooge with no credibility.
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 9:41 am

Keesje,

Though I agree with you that Star is nowhere near "the best-integrated airline alliance in the world"; the case can also be made that NW/KL are but a bilateral joint venture, as opposed to a global airline alliance. Said arguement would have even more clout if all/some of them end up joining SkyTeam or OneHeathroWorld.

On the other hand, if Wings had been launched.............
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 10:04 am

I think in light of UA's financial performance, this title of this thread is too sanguine. United is still in business and that is a feat in and of itself. It defied many expectations. Lets hope that United can successfully address the underlying problems that all major carriers face. I think the concessions are a step in the right direction.

The risk that UA faces is that even without another terrorist attack, lenders may tire of extending their exposure indefinitely. I have not been tracking fare levels but I do not think they are really moving or at least moving enough to make the airlines profitable again.
 
ual777contrail
Posts: 2914
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2002 11:33 am

RE: Strong Performance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 3:00 pm

What amuses us most at UNITED is the fact, yes we are in bankruptcy , and yes we lost 1.3 billion but do you think that we are going to announce if we made a profit? No way, now is the time to get rid of all our right offs and milk the chap.11 cow.
people say we haven't made a dime since 2002?

We have a lot of changes in the future and the future looks bright. For those that oppose? Who cares. Like a prize fighter making a comeback, just wait an see.

Where is b747-437? He wont respond? What a wanker.


ual 777 contrail
 
Guest

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 3:07 pm

No way, now is the time to get rid of all our right offs and milk the chap.11 cow.

Keep telling yourselves that!  Acting devilish
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Mon May 05, 2003 5:19 pm

people say we haven't made a dime since 2002?
*************

This is why most people think you guys don't get the program...., things are serious, yet the smug comments remain. b747-437 knows more about it than you, and will probably have the last laugh at this rate...
 
ual777contrail
Posts: 2914
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2002 11:33 am

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 12:30 am

ARTY,
YAH, I'm still holding my breath.

There are two kinds of people in this world, those who think that people or companies can stage comeback and actually make it. Second those who see the sky as always falling, and always think they are a part of reality. You arty are the second. You never seem to amaze me, do you not think that every United employee worried or still worries for their jobs? What is the harm in thinking that maybe your company can and will make it through this hard time. You are so negative, and of all people you are one who shouldn't always be running your mouth. CO isn't out of the woods either.
You may get the warm fuzzy feeling that well, were doing better than you. That mentality may come back and bite you on the ass(CO) gordo has already burnt all the bridges for you.

Not a day goes by that we don't think it is serious, and second b747 is a pile of s@#$ and he proved it by his lame comments and hasn't even responded. You keep him on your favorite user list and I'll keep him off mine. I know why you like him so much, he is always slamming UAL, you guys have a lot in common. Now give us a speech about how much your pulling for us.


ual 777 contrail

 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 1:09 am

Ual777Contrail,

UAL Corporation is not making money. Period. UAL has a greater chance of liquidation than any other carrier right now. Although the possibility has lessened in recent months, it's still there and ominous. This is not about having the right attitude or being positive. This about the laws of arithmetic applied to money. Total revenues must begin exceeding total costs or game over. Bottom line.

Whether you agree with him or not, B747-437B has not said anything false or misleading. He has provided consistently well-reasoned opinions based on facts.
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 4:33 am

UAL777, One of your fellow United posters was trying to imply that secretly UAL was actually making money, and was duping the public etc.... I commented on this as it is ridiculous. End of story
 
B747-437B
Posts: 8777
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RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 4:59 am

Where is b747-437? He wont respond? What a wanker.

B747-437B is in the middle of a VERY busy week (20k+ miles of travel this week alone - all on Star Alliance carriers you may be pleased to know, although none of it on UA) and doesn't really have the time to sit and sort through this crap. Maybe on Tuesday when I get a chance to catch my breath.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 4:59 am

Today the S&P dumping UAL debt down to D rating stating that the airline is defaulting on payments, and has stated that they will further default on others including payments to regional airports for fee's etc
***********************

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030501/markets_unitedairlines_s_p_1.html
 
UALPHLCS
Topic Author
Posts: 3233
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2001 5:50 am

RE: Strong Performance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 10:00 am

Oh I agree B747 has been nothing but well reasoned:

Sssshhhhhhhhh.... don't bust the bubble.

///U N I T E D will stand etc...

Get with the program!
Reply 3

I am not going to argue with you, mainly because you probably won't even understand any reasoning I put forward. If you think that things at United are hunky-dory, then that is your prerogative. I wish you the best.

I leave my clients to be the best judges of how informed I am on various issues. Regretfully, I doubt that you could afford my fees anyway on an IAM salary. Reply 25
Yes there is nothing but facts and stats in his answers

Apparently when someone challenges Mendis's assertions he becomes very busy.

On the other hand I started this post so I will defend what I meant in posting it. For 3 months we have herd very little except UA will liquidate by January then February then March, then April. Meanwhile Those under constant criticism that they are doing nothing have devised a plan gotten DIP backing for it and sold that plan to the Company's unions without I might add any nasty bonus surprises. The employees have maintained stellar performance despite constant talk about the future of their livelihood and accepted the Chapter 11 proposals. Ua has despite a WAR and an outbreak of a unknown disease in one of its most lucrative markets continues to progress and get better. How many of you realize that the last gulf war killed EA,which was in Chapter 11 at the time, days after it began.

So now I think its time to assess the predictive abilities of some of the naysayers here on A.Net. EA was killed but Gulf I. Gulf II and SARS has not killed UA months after they began. Can we now put to rest that EA and UA are anything alike. The situations ARE TOTALLY different.
Also UA has been called dead by many for months now, by flies today. So much for those predictions.

Now some highlights. Numbers that where unable to be reported in the 1Q report but will now take effect. $350 million in cash from US government tax refund. & million dollars a day in labor saving effective 1 May. Summer advance bookings way up. UAX carriers contracts up for renegotiation savings unknown. DIP Financiers pleased with UA's performance in clearing its financial commitments to them.

These are undeniable positives. I have never once said that UA was out of the woods. I challenge anyone to find where I have been wildly optimistic about UA's future. I have always maintained that UA seems to be on the right track and moving in the right direction. For this I've been called delirious and naive. Well, for three months I've been right. I expect at the end of the year I'll be right. Farther forward than that I can't say.

One last thing, about UA's debt rating. How can you not expect that. Come on the company IS in Chapter 11. Creditors have been brought to the table to work out the debt payments. Are you so short of memory you don't remember US defaulting on their payments to Airbus? That's what companies do when in Chapter 11 protection, that's why its protection. Don't site singular examples and say this is why UA will go down when every company that enters Chapter 11 does the same thing.
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
speedport
Posts: 269
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2001 12:08 pm

RE: Strong Performance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 11:12 am

Whoa, wait a minute.

No one is withholding airport fees from regional airports. United is engaged in a shrewd bankruptcy strategy of welching on bonds for facilities construction while continuing to use those facilities by paying airport fees. In other words, United is paying airport fees to use the facilities but they are trying to get out of their obligations to pay certain bonds used to construct those facilities.

Airports have taken the position of wanting to withhold the use of facilities if the bonds to construct them are not paid by the airline. United argues that airports cannot withhold the use of facilities if the fees to use them are paid while the bonds to construct them are defaulted upon.

The bonds were downgraded on the speculation of United winning the argument.

United’s position may save them some money today, but it will have a chilling affect on bonds issued in the future. After all if United can default on bonds used to construct facilities, yet still be able to use those facilities by paying tenant fees, investors will be wary of investing in bonds because they lose all assurance of those bonds being repaid since the threat of withholding their use will be gone.

United will not default on these bonds entirely. They intend to negotiate repayment of those bonds under more favorable terms. If United succeeds, then I expect your airline, along with all the rest, to follow suit. So take a pill AND CHILL OUT.
 
UALPHLCS
Topic Author
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Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2001 5:50 am

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Tue May 06, 2003 1:37 pm

Just to add a bit on Speedport's post.

US Airways did just this very thing a few weeks ago regarding PIT.

It getting to the point with some, that despite all the mounting evidence that they were wrong and UA IS heading in the right direction, they have to dig up ANY peice of bad news no matter how minor.

What's next... a flat tire on a bag tug will prove UA isn't performing standard maintence for lack of funds.



FYI this is my 1000th post. Hoo-ahh //// UNITED Will Stand
A little less Hooah, and a little more Dooah.
 
B747-437B
Posts: 8777
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 6:54 am

RE: Strong Preformance Continues At UA

Wed May 07, 2003 1:04 am

Ok, time for me to sit down with the numbers and craft a coherent response to some of the misconceptions being spread around here.

There is only ONE important number in this game and that is the bottom line. Unfortunately, UAL is so far under water that breaking even with the surface is not even in sight. I have tremendous respect for the strong OPERATIONAL performance that United staff have put up, but its kinda like setting a new world record for running 100 meters in the wrong direction.

The bottom line remains that UAL's net worth deteriorated by $1.3 billion in Q1'03. The company was already BANKRUPT. That means that the sum value of liabilities was already greater than the sum value of assets (this doesn't even consider the practical point that asset values significantly deteriorate when liquidated on involuntary terms). The $1.3 billion is just more debt being accumulated, thus creating a deeper hole to climb out of. Alas, no amount of on-time flights, customer satisfaction surveys or properly handled checked bags will change the reality.

UAL loves to talk about a quantity called EBITDAR (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization and Rent). In layman's terms, EBITDAR can be likened to a guy who claims he has thousands of dollars in disposable income because he doesn't pay taxes, lives in his parents basement and has credit cards with high limits that he doesn't ever pay off. He may think he's cool, but most sensible people think he's a walking recipe for disaster.

UAL is facing an uphill climb right now. Passenger revenues have plunged 7.6% over Q1'02 despite an increase in ASMs offered. At the same time, expenses have remained essentially constant despite all the restructuring work allegedly being performed. A large component of this has been the fuel price spike, but when you consider that fuel prices were below average during Q1'02, that excuse carries a lot less weight. Nonetheless, an airline can't operate without fuel and this is a risk of the game. If UAL hadn't messed up their house so badly over the last few years, they would have had enough liquidity on hand to fuel hedge and spare themselves this problem.

More importantly, loads are flat at 72% while breakeven is up to 96%. Yields have plunged by 9% year-on-year, while CASM has only been controlled by less than 2% excluding fuel component and is actually UP by 0.5% on an absolute basis.

I'm skeptical about the dollar value placed on the labor concessions, but even taking that at face value and assuming no further deterioration in the ratios above UAL will still lose about $3 million per day in Q2. Note that this does not equate to $3 million cash burn, because all losses are not neccessarily cash losses. That is a very important distinction to make in Chapter 11 because it permits the airline to maintain a more flexible cash balance (allowing continued operations) despite the inability of the operation to become a viable entity outside of protection.

However, "less loss" is not the solution to this problem. UAL is in a free fall that has not shown any sign of slowing yet (although it may do so in Q2'03 comparitive to Q1'03 simply based on stronger traffic forecasts). Nonetheless, the downward plunge continues. And unless there is a radical change of direction, which we HAVE NOT seen, they will run out of space and eventually splat on the pavement.

"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada