keesje
Posts: 8863
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 21, 2003 6:39 pm

It has been discussed before on this site , but I'm still trying to get a grip on it ..

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A. The number of parked 747's has grown during the last few months, how many of them will return to the skies ?

B. Alternatives (A340-500/600 & B777-300ER) are entering service. They will likely continue to eat into the 747 market. What share in the high volume /long range market will they get, 50 % ?

C. Boeing says still 50 B747 are on order, but I've been reading other interpretations of this backlog... what is realistic, another 40 before the line closes ?

D. After the A380 enters service the 747 will come under extra pressure in real high volume / restricted slot markets. How many A380 do you think will be sold until 2015 ?

E. Is there a break even production volume for the 747 ? At some point Boeing can no longer keep the line open. What do you think this break even volume is, 10 aircraft per year ?

F. If we take the number of 747s flying around at this moment at 100%.
How many do you think will be flying around in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 ?


Thnx !

keesje
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
United Airline
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 21, 2003 7:12 pm

When the Economy picks up again, I am sure we will see a lot more B 747 orders. And I think Boeing will build a new B 747.
 
na
Posts: 9170
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 21, 2003 10:31 pm

I agree with United Airline.
I´m only slightly pessimistic about how much the economy might recover. From a german standpoint the current crisis is the worst since Hitler was blown to hell were he belongs.

Anyway, my predict:

A. All 744s and most 742s built in the 80s. Almost all built in the 70s will not return.

B. Yes, I also think that about 50% of the 747 market of the mid 90s will be the size of the 747 market in 10 years time. The rest will be eaten by A380, A346 and B773ER.

C. Boeing will launch a 747 NG in about 5 years time when the A380 will be reality and Boeing can respond to reality, and not promises as today. Please note that most airlines have sufficient enough 744s at the moment and most are to young to look for replacements right now. Even in a mediocre economical situation I bet the production pace will rise again modestly in 3 or 4 years. There will always be airlines for whom the 773/A346 is too small and the A380 to big.

D. I have no idea, anything between 200 and 500 is possible. All depends on the economy and whether Boeing will bring a clever 747 NG with abilities to harm the A380´s sales.

E. I think that Boeing will keep the 747 line open even if they only built 5 per year for a 4-5 year period - when there´s light at the end of the tunnel. Even in the very worst case the 747 will be built for another 5 years. The chance that the 747 line will still be open after 2010 is more than 50%. The 757 line is in greater danger and likely close latest when the 7E7 comes. And the 767 as well if the USAF doesn´t come as the "knight in shining armour" (why don´t they wait for the 7E7 and chosse the ailing 767 anyway?).

F. Depends on if Boeing can launch a 747NG and if there is a mjor breakthrough in air travel costs (i.e. far lower fuel consumption). If no 747NG:
2010: 60%
2015: 40%
2020: 25%
If a 747NG comes:
2010: 70%
2015: 50%
2020: 40%
 
keesje
Posts: 8863
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 4:51 am

In my opinion network developments will also play a major role. 747´s have gone out with many airlines already because of differnt strategy´s. Any info on a 747NG ?

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jwenting
Posts: 9973
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2001 10:12 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 5:09 am

Keesje, you are dreaming again of a world in which there are only Airbusses?
I wish I were flying
 
RIX
Posts: 1589
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 6:53 am

It would be quite strange to see more and more 346s/773s and 380s while no new 420-460 seaters... And "747NG" is the only (possible) one in this market...
 
United Airline
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 8:50 am

I think all the B 747 CLASSICS will be replaced by B 777s or A 340s BUT NOT THE B 747-400s. Airlines will probably replace B 747-400s with newer B 747s in the future, hopefully on a one to one basis.

NONE of the aircraft type is doing well right now. HOWEVER, the Economy will not forever be in recession and it will rebounce one day. And one more thing, airlines are satisfied with their current B 747-400s and they need not order anymore. Besides they are still very new.

Boeing will build a new B 747 one day to compete with the A 380. Do expect airlines like United (If they pull through), British Airways, Virgin, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Qantas, Air New Zealand (Maybe) ordering it
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 9:10 am

I'm not hugely bullish on the 747's future but when the market eventually recovers, there may yet be demand, especially for the freighter. Of course, this too will be depressed due to the large number retired from passenger service available for conversion to freighters. I think if travel demand resumes robust growth, a steady, if modest need for 747s (416 to 470 pax std. seating, the latter assuming Boeing undertakes a stretch urged by Lufthansa) will continue. As for an 'NG' 747, Boeing already has it's currently shelved 430 pax 747X and its' stretched 502 pax variant fully designed and could offer them anytime the market asked. Not a direct A380 competitor but an alternative for some, if the price is sufficiently less. I suppose there's a fair chance the line could continue for another 25-30 years or more. I'm certainly looking forward to my first 747 flight, the outbound leg of a BA flight I'll soon take, with Concorde on the return leg. Long live the 747-at least I hope so.
 
United Airline
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 10:15 am

Boeing said that the B 747 will be in production for 30 years to come. Hopefully they will also build something that is as big if not bigger than the A 380.
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Thu May 22, 2003 10:41 am

Conceptually, their NLA (New Large Airplane) was very similar to the A380 (as was McDonnell-Douglas's MD-12) but Boeing never saw a large enough market to commit a reported $12 - $15 billion to it, which is why they looked instead at enlarging the 747. As you may recall, it looked for awhile in the early to mid-90's as though Boeing AND Airbus would collaborate on such an airplane but negotiations reached an impasse and both companies went their separate ways; this discussion breakdown solidified Airbus's plans to develop the (then) A3XX while Boeing designed the soon to be aborted 747-500X/600X.
 
United Airline
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 28, 2003 10:55 am

Anyone remember the shelved B 747-700, as well as the BWB?
 
United Airline
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 28, 2003 11:07 am

SQ/CX etc will probably order new B 747s.

Wonder if there will be NEW B 747 operators one day. I mean one that has never operated the B 747-400, or even the B 747.
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 28, 2003 11:22 am

United Airline
"Anyone remember the shelved B 747-700, as well as the BWB?"

Yes, the -700 was a largely new model, with more changes than the -500X/600X. I think it was a later exercise to distract potential (then) A3XX buyers. The BWB was inherited from McDonnell-Douglas and promises dramatic efficiency, doing with 3 engines what the A380 does with 4. However, it would probably be hugely expensive to develop, possibly around $15-$20 billion or more so Boeing would probably have to find a major partner, like Lockheed-Martin (?) to help shoulder the costs. Pressurizing the non-cylindrical fuselage would be a major challenge but it seems a logical step ahead for fuel-efficiency.


 
United Airline
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: How Many 747s In The Sky For Next 15 Years?

Wed May 28, 2003 11:33 am

The B 747-700 looks similar to the A 380, if not slightly bigger.

I think Boeing will first build a stretched B 747-400. Then the B 747-700. Then the BWB.

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