flyyul
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Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 8:45 am

Today on CFCF news

The president of the ADM Mr.James Cherry was discussing the future of Montreal and Air Canada.

Anyway, in July, Air Canada intends to increase capacity by 17%. The highlights of this expansion are a new 2nd daily flight to FRA, non-stop to YYT, YEG, and increased capacity to the domestic/transborder components of their network. THe 17% in capacity does not include United express 7 daily flights, and Lufthansa/Austrian increases.

I am very pleased with this news, and I wonder if this is the way that Air Canada can develop YUL into a 2nd alternative to Toronto.

Mark
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:25 am

From NVP..

Insolvent Air Canada will shrink as an airline but boost its presence in Montreal, the head of city’s airport corporation said yesterday.
James Cherry, president of Aeroports de Montreal, said Canada’s biggest airline will increase its service in and out of Montreal, even as it puts into place a fleet of tinier planes and realigns to what it calls a “smaller network.”
“They’re looking forward to adding activity here because it actually serves them,” Cherry said of Air Canada.
“We’re actually benefiting. So obviously there’s somebody else losing. I can’t speculate on who that is.”
Cherry said the Montreal carrier will increase its flights in and out of Dorval airport by 17 per cent this summer compared to last year. He said the airline will also offer 10 per cent more seats.
“This is foreseen as a fundamental and permanent change,” he said.
Air Canada official Isabelle Arthur could not confirm Cherry’s information. She said the airline’s overall capacity for Montreal for the 2003 summer is the same as summer 2002.
Nevertheless, the airline’s plan is to increase the number of passengers connecting through Montreal within Canada and to the U.S., Arthur said. The airline has re-introduced direct service from Montreal to Charlottetown, St.John’s and Edmonton. It also plans to increase service to major U.S. business centres like Boston and Philadelphia.
Air Canada’s international offerings from Montreal are another story.
On March 7 and with great fanfare, Air Canada announced new service from Montreal to Rome and Beirut. The two cities overseas are “important markets to serve, particularly for the large Italian and Lebanese communities in Montreal, Bill Bredt, Vice President of Air Canada network and revenue management said at the time.
Since then, the airline dropped Rome because it says not enough people bought tickets. As for Beirut, the federal government Monday ordered Air Canada to suspend service because of what it called “national security issues.”
Cherry said Montreal has “no congestion” which allows Air Canada get planes back in the air faster than it could in Toronto and save money. He estimated Dorval’s airport fees for airlines are one third cheaper than Toronto’s Pearson airport.
Air Canada is headquartered in Montreal and has its main maintenance base here. Toronto remains its main hub.
Last year, Aeroports de Montreal carried 9 million passengers and tallied $200 million in revenue.

nvanpraet

thegazette.canwest.com

 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:25 am

This misleading. YUL traffic shrank about 20% from 2001 to 2002, so adding 17% on top of a shrunken base still leaves YUL well behind 2001 traffic levels, indeed likely behind 1999 levels also.

I wonder if this is the way that Air Canada can develop YUL into a 2nd alternative to Toronto.

Not likely. YYZ is 3x the size of YUL. YVR is 50% larger than YUL. YYC continues to grow and will likely take over 3rd place from YUL in a few years. YUL continues to shrink in relative terms, in line with its poor economic outlook.






I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:28 am

Just a question..

How did YUL shrink 20% from 2001 to 2002? The corect number was 11.5%, the percentage lost in Toronto was below 13%..

And AC 50% bigger at YVR.. bogus.

Mark
 
Noise
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:37 am

Do the math Neil. YVR serves around 15-16 million pax per year. YUL serves 9-10 million. 10/16 does not equal 50%.

And YUL shrank 20%? Those numbers are made up of course. Official stats from the ADM show that YMQ shrank 7.7%. Aircraft movements are up 9.5% so far in 2003.

This is going to be a great summer for YUL. Very busy. Thanks for posting this, Mark!

 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:46 am

Apparently its 67% cheaper for AC to operate flights out of Montreal.

Mark
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 10:39 am

Part of this are the website press releases, too:

"Montréal s' aéroporte bien "
http://www.admtl.com/includes/pdf/Allocution_Chambre_com-fr.pdf

"YUL love our new airport!"
http://www.admtl.com/includes/pdf/Allocution_Chambre_com-en.pdf

Talk about all kinds of things, including possibly putting in an integrated hotel in the terminal and working on the road and rail access. Even a few comments courtesy of Milty, lol.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 10:52 am

Do the math Neil. YVR serves around 15-16 million pax per year. YUL serves 9-10 million. 10/16 does not equal 50%.

LOL! You do the math.......
15M/9M = 67%. YVR handles 67% more traffic than YUL.

And YUL shrank 20%? Those numbers are made up of course. Official stats from the ADM show that YMQ shrank 7.7%. Aircraft movements are up 9.5% so far in 2003.

The latest issue of Airliner World reports Q1/2 traffic for YUL as follows:
2002 4.222M
2001 5.045M

This is a reduction of 17% in passenger count from 2001 to 2002. Hence, a 17% increase on a smaller base brings PLANNED YUL traffic back to below 2001, to perhaps 1999 or 2000. Nothing to brag about. Incidently, the Airliner World source was ADM.

Neil









I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:05 am

LOL.

www.admtl.com for statistics Neil ok?

Are you going to compare the statistics from 2001 to 2002? After september 11th and the bankruptcy of canada 3000? If any event, YMQ's traffic dropped from 9.9 mil to 8.81 mil a 7.7% decrease. The latest numbers for 2002 from Airport Council International, show Toronto from 28.1 mil to 25.8 mil, causing a 7.6% drop in traffic.. and SARS will make it even worse Big grin

Latest traffic for January 2003 from ACI shows YYZ gaining 8.2%, while Montreal gains at 10.3%.

So while Don Cherry  Big thumbs up goes on a rant about YUL and losing 20%, he should consult the figures

Mark



[Edited 2003-06-04 04:14:01]
 
spyderz
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:15 am

I wouldn't trust Air Canada concerning anything about future plans since I believe Air Canada themseleves don't know how they'll look in a few years time. The press release also states that capacity for YUL is equal this summer to last summer, and omits the fact that YUL-ATL/SFO have been suspended. If Robert Milton continues being CEO of AC, we'll see the airline run like an American carrier and focus its operations on one hub - YYZ. With T-New opening, YYZ will be further strengthened, and this could mean decreasing Air Canada presence at YUL.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:24 am

Spyderz,

YUL-ATL/SFO is suspended no doubt. However AC is still sending YEG, YYT, YYG out. They are adding frequencies to over 10 destinations, and strengthening capacity on others. The press release is wrong, because the capacity numbers are much greater this year than last year, by raw calculation.

Once again my view is that there is relatively few destinations that AC can add from YYZ. Where to next? ICN? HKG? SLC? PDX? then what and where? Many of their routes are already over-served (i.e YYZ-DFW), and that is why you see a growing number of down-gauges on routes (ATL/EWR/DFW/PHL/BOS etc.).

Furthermore, it really doesnt matter what T-New can do anyway.

Air Canada is not in the position of US majors. Americans will not transit via Toronto to get to their destination. You will rarely see a person do BOS-YYZ-DFW or BDL-YYZ-MIA etc.

Mark
 
Noise
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:35 am

LOL! You do the math.......
15M/9M = 67%. YVR handles 67% more traffic than YUL.


Uh.........I don't know how you did in your High school's math courses, but that's not how you calculate averages. You take the 9 million and divide it by 15 million and will equal 60%. That does not mean YVR handles 60% more traffic. In order to find that, you must take the difference, which is 6 million. 6/15 equals 40%. Therefore YVR handles 40% more traffic. IF it really was 50%, what you would have to do is multiply 15 million by 0.5(since percentage points whenmultiplying are based on "1"), and that would equal 7.5 million........but Dorval doesn't handle 7.5 million passengers per year.......doesn't it Neil
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:37 am

Hey Noise......divide 15/9.....and see what you get....67%

Once again my view is that there is relatively few destinations that AC can add from YYZ. Where to next? ICN? HKG? SLC? PDX? then what and where? Many of their routes are already over-served (i.e YYZ-DFW), and that is why you see a growing number of down-gauges on routes (ATL/EWR/DFW/PHL/BOS etc.).

Most traffic growth at any airport comes from existing routes, not new routes.




I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Noise
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:47 am

That's not how it's done, Neil. Besides, you won't get 67%, you get 167%. That's impossible. Also, it is unlogical. If 7.5 million equals 50%, 6 million(which is the difference) does not equal 67%.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:50 am

Perhaps, but many routes at YYZ I would argue are almost at the point where they can no longer be developed at a further extent.

The principle of a hub is to develop a system of banks. Air Canada's intentions are to do so within a bank. Air Canada also needs to develop these flight in connection with an appropriate bank at the arrival airport to maximize connecting traffic at both ends.

Most of Air Canada;s traffic is already on well-established banks out of YYZ. Air Canada cant add 9pm flights to ORD/DEN/SFO/LAX because it doesnt permit connecting in the arrival cities. Air Canada's got a flight every hour to YVR, do you want one on the :30?

Mark
 
Jean Leloup
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:54 am

10 million * 1.5 (or 150%) = 15 million. Therefore, as Yyz717 says, YVR has over 150% the traffic of YUL. i.e., more than 50% more. i really don't see why we're arguing about math.
Unless the questio nis what Air Canada's traffic alone is at these airports, as I really don't know. I assume the proportion of AC flights and pax relative to total is higher at YUL than at YYZ
Next flight.... who knows.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 11:56 am

That's not how it's done, Neil. Besides, you won't get 67%, you get 167%.

Oh brother.....15M/9M = 167%.....which means YVR is 67% HIGHER than YUL.

Perhaps, but many routes at YYZ I would argue are almost at the point where they can no longer be developed at a further extent.

That's just your call. I could say the same about YUL. With strong economic growth at YYZ (indeed most cities), traffic growth will continue. YYZ and YYC will lead economic growth in Canada in the next 5 years.

Most of Air Canada;s traffic is already on well-established banks out of YYZ. Air Canada cant add 9pm flights to ORD/DEN/SFO/LAX because it doesnt permit connecting in the arrival cities. Air Canada's got a flight every hour to YVR, do you want one on the :30?

There is enough O+D traffic from YYZ to these cities to permit late night departures from YYZ. As for YVR......yes, when the hourly flights reach saturation, it will go to every 30 minutes for some hours of the day.






I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 12:00 pm

negative, there is none and that is why there are no late night departures to these cities, and the ones that already at the fringe of the latest bank are usually the emptiest flights.

YUL and YYZ used to have NW flights going to DTW and would land there at 10pm, with no bank to connect at. Never did those flights have over 30-40 pax, thus they are not coming back for summer 2003.

Mark
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 12:04 pm

Last time I checked there was a 930/10pm YYZ-YVR. The last AA and UA YYZ-ORD's left at about 9pm...dont know if they still do. Those would also cover local traffic.

The evening YYZ-LAX/SFO/SEA all leave about 7pm arrive about 9pm...too late for connecting traffic at destination.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
LSTC
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 12:26 pm

Many of the flights that YYZ claims are due to people travelling "through" Toronto to get to other places.

I for one hate it. Where I live the common beef is "everthing has to go through Toronto". YYZ is so congested that you can usually tack on 30 minutes of taxi time, and about 30% of the time, the gate isn't ready when we roll up. If you have to overnight, you need a $30 taxi ride to go to the hotel across the street.

Furthermore, any sign of snow flakes seems to snarl traffic and induce huge delays. Its not in Air Canada's best interests to expand the Toronto hub to handle this through traffic. YYZ is at saturation already and they need to figure out a way to relieve it. If I had the choice I would definitely go to Montreal as a stepping stone to the US or Europe. Much less hassle and they don't call the national guard out when it snows.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 12:29 pm

YYZ is at saturation already and they need to figure out a way to relieve it.

T-NEW will put everything under one user-friendly terminal. Connections will be as easy as at any hub.



I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
LSTC
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 12:55 pm

YYZ717,

I wasn't talking about terminal space or pax handling. After awhile when you try to funnel so many flights into a small patch of airspace, it magnifies small problems. Short delays or weather causes huge ATC problems. Unexpected inclement weather has the potential to induce a great deal of down time as well, like we witnessed this spring when a snow/ice storm caused the supply of de-ice and anti-ice fluid to be depleted.

I have a theory that time slows down in proximity to large airports. The equation Delay=(((FD/100)^2)*10) defnes the relationship (without taking friction into consdieration). FD is the number of flights a day. The Delay is in minutes and represents how much time you can tack on to your flight time when you visit the airport. An airport that has 100 flights a day causes a 1 hour flight to seem like 1 hour and 10 minutes. An airport with 300 flights a day causes a 1 hour flight to seem like 1 hour and 30 minutes....and so forth.

You can imagine and airport like YVR where there are over 600 movements a day. A one hour flight looks like a whopping 2 hours out of there.

Like Einstein's somewhat popular theory, I believe my theory has something to do with the huge mass of concrete at large airports but doesn't take into consideration how the behaviour of this function will hold up as you approach the centre of the universe...Toronto.

 Smile

 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 1:04 pm

I don't disagree with you.....but much of what you way is compensated for by the sheer volume and variety of connecting possibilities. YYZ has at least one hourly flight to each of LGA and ORD.....hence if you're connecting to those cities thru YYZ, missing your flight is not that bad. Connecting thru YUL and missing your flight COULD mean waiting overnight.

I used to travel extensively on business to many small US markets. I tried ALL the US hubs....I always came back to the larger ones (such as ORD or ATL) simply because of the frequency of flights. With any business travel, time is off the essence.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Qb001
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:47 pm

I think it's clear enough. The 17% growth will not result from an increased capacity in seats, but rather from adjustments in the schedules, thus allowing more pax to use YUL as a hub.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
 
yhu
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:32 am

I believe the 17% increase will be in seats available, not seats used. So they will increase the number of available seats out of Montreal. Not the amount of seats that were actually sold out of the Dorval from last year. In 2002, there may have been 15% (number I chose between both of your estimates) less seats sold out of the city, but there was not 15% less seats available. Therefore, you are kind of comparing two different things.

Dave
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:49 am

There is a 17% growth.

This comes from the addition of flights to YEG, YYT, YYG. Furthermore, AIr Canada is adding a daily frequency to DCA, PHL, BOS, YWG (Zipper!), FRA (t0 be determined), LGA (A319), EWR. It is increasing capacity to YVR, YQM, YQB, YYC, YHZ, adding almost 3 daily JAZZ to YOW.

The losses of BEY/FCO would sum up to 6 weekly, which is not significant in the grand scheme of things, but it is certainly regrettable. ATL wasnt doing very well anyway, SFO is the big surprise becuse since it resumed on 03/05, I havent seen a load under 80 for that flight.

The good thing is that they are concentrating their flights around a hubbing bank at the 7pm hour, that is certainly good news!

Mark
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 9:34 am

There is a 17% growth.

This should bring YUL traffic back to 2000 levels. Assuming that the incremental seats can be filled. Big assumption of course.


I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:15 am

Negative.

The numbers this summer will be superior to the total number of seats offered in the year 2000.

The year 2000 featured Aeroflot, Tarom, Sabena daily. This summer will have Lufthansa, Aeris, SATA, Austrian and upgrades by Air Canada/AIr France/Royal AIr Maroc/Olympic/CSA etc. Ive measured the total number of seats offered this summer internationally, its the highest it has reach since the days of Mirabel 20 years ago  Big thumbs up

On the transborder front, the changes are once again superior. United is around, Continental has 8 flights instead of the 3 it used to have. Nothing much has changed but significant upgrades on routes that where not there in 2000 (PHL/IAD etc.)

Domestic is a tough call, because of the dissapearance of Canadian. Canadian had a very small network out of YUL, a daily YYZ, a daily YYC, and two daily YVR. JetsGo/WestJet/Canjet/Tango combined a way greater than the demand offered by CP 2 years ago. Air Canada had pretty much the same network, but there are new destinations such as YEG/YYT, and frequency increases/upgauges to YYC/YVR. The only significant decrease was teh parade of rapidair 767s that have gone down to A320.

Whats really hard to measure is the loss of QN/2T on charter ops, and I was told that TS has picked up but part of the slack.

Mark
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:29 am

Negative.

The numbers this summer will be superior to the total number of seats offered in the year 2000.


That doesn't make sense. Assuming 2001 grew slightly from 2000...with the 17% drop from 2001 to 2002. a 17% growth in 2003 will put YUL at 2000 levels.

The year 2000 featured Aeroflot, Tarom, Sabena daily. This summer will have Lufthansa, Aeris, SATA, Austrian and upgrades by Air Canada/AIr France/Royal AIr Maroc/Olympic/CSA etc. Ive measured the total number of seats offered this summer internationally, its the highest it has reach since the days of Mirabel 20 years ago

This is only part of the story. YUL'ers still flew to Germany etc in 2001...but thru BOS.YYZ etc.....so they are not incremental just because LH starts YUL in 2003. You mentioned that YUL-YYZ capacity was down.....this route has a HUGE impact on YUL traffic.....far more than all Euro traffic together.




I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 12:11 pm

Neil there was a 7% drop from 2001 to 2002. Its not that major in comparison.

Demand and pax levels are a direct correlation of a supply and demand. More supply, more pax travelling. That is the story behind high-growth centres in YYZ and YVR, where low-fare airliners have stimulated demand, rather than stealing from an established base. Montreal has been missing out on it 'till now.

LH to MUC doesnt mean people are going to MUC, they have up to 40 destinations to connect to. This gives new access of seats to people who couldnt get to say SVO because OS/LH via FRA was full etc.

Let me use an example KLM:

When they used to have the 743 on the route, they always left with 10-15 seats left. The current MD11 when factoring in no-shows, still leaves with 10-15 empty seats.

Its all about the supply..

Mark
 
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 12:21 pm

 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 12:30 pm

Neil there was a 7% drop from 2001 to 2002. Its not that major in comparison.

No, it was a 17% drop from 2001 Q1/2 to 2002 Q1/2, not 7%. Traffic dropped from 5M to 4.2M as I've detailed above.

Demand and pax levels are a direct correlation of a supply and demand. More supply, more pax travelling.

Not true. The demand (or demand potential) has to be there in the first place. This is measured by high load factors and/or yields which encourages airlines to add new capacity. YUL has not been underserved.

Montreal has been missing out on it 'till now.

YUL has not been missing out on anything. There has simply been no demand to satisfy.

Let me use an example KLM:
When they used to have the 743 on the route, they always left with 10-15 seats left. The current MD11 when factoring in no-shows, still leaves with 10-15 empty seats.


Sounds like YUL-AMS demand has simply dropped.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 12:38 pm

Its all about the supply..

First off, I’m not taking sides in the continuing YUL vs. YYZ debate. But the comment you made is absolutely ridiculous! If KL could profitably fly a B747 between AMS-YUL, then they would do so – currently they are flying B744 full passenger jets on routes that (allegedly) don’t make any money. Yes, KL could offer every seat between Montreal and Amsterdam for free and fill up a B744… but they could do the same at Gatorscreek, GA. This upcoming winter, YUL-AMS is scheduled as a B763… not because KL won’t have enough MD-11, B777 or B744 equipment, but because the demand (in regards to KL making a profit) isn’t there.

It’s not about supply AC, KL and virtually every other airline have plenty of supply – over saturation is considered the #1 reason airlines are losing heaps of cash – it’s about demand in regards to making a profit.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:20 pm

Industrial Pate..

I am speaking in regards to the situation in Montreal. In any event, I work for the same manager who takes care of KL/NW and CO in Montreal, and I am very well informed about their situation, and last year Montreal and Toronto were no.1 and no.2 in the KLM system in terms of highest average load per single flight. Last year they were working the 747-300.

KLM is looking to use A330-200 aircraft to Montreal and Toronto, this is of course the long-term scenario. KLM currently is parking their 743's in the desert if I am correct. They are not using any 744's to North America any more, while the MD11 offers more seats than any KLM 74Combi. Out of Montreal and Toronto, KLM never leaves with more than 10 or 10 empty seats, and busines is usually always sold-out, and ahead of time also (very few last minute upgrades because J is usually full ahead of time).

The comment I made was about the difference between a 747 and MD11. Toronto's flight with KLM were always just shy of 100% full, whether 747 or MD11. When I looked at bookings in March on PARS, KLM was going to provide several 743 dates for YYZ. The 743 dates always had a much superior booking level to the MD11 dates.. coincidence?

That being said I do agree with you in terms of demand. It is all about the demand, but if you increase the supply, the market will be stimulated, and more people will fly. Whether or not it is a profitable increase in supply is questionable and perhaps something we do not have the resources to fully answer.


Mark
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:27 pm

"No, it was a 17% drop from 2001 Q1/2 to 2002 Q1/2, not 7%. Traffic dropped from 5M to 4.2M as I've detailed above"

-It doesnt matter what the stats say on airliner world.

The full and detailed statistics for the years 2001 and 2002 are available at www.admtl.com and it will clearly show a 7.7% decrease in passengers level. The ACI (airport council international) will show a 7.6% decrease in passenger level at YYZ.. what is your point?

"Not true. The demand (or demand potential) has to be there in the first place. This is measured by high load factors and/or yields which encourages airlines to add new capacity. YUL has not been underserved. "

-Precisely.. Air Canada is adding these flights for a reason. I have b*tching and complaining about how I cant understand AC is not paying attention to Montreal, and finally it seems like I made sense. Air Canada's has a smaller and tighter network in Montreal, therefore the loads are usually very high, and the loads are usually very full. On a route like YULCDG that offers comparable demand to YYZLHR, there isnt you know 6 flights a day... so the flights leave very full 365 days a year.

"YUL has not been missing out on anything. There has simply been no demand to satisfy."

-Then why is WestJet gonna ant it up to 7 flights daily? Why is Canjet adding YYZ and YQM etc etc. Zipper to YWG etc.

"Sounds like YUL-AMS demand has simply dropped. "

-Negative.. this is the current situation in Toronto also. I always check the 4PF at work. KLM had the 763 for May in Montreal, the date before they converted back to MD11, they left with 10 open seats (from no-shows etc.). The day later with the MD11, the same.

In Toronto, up until May they were showing select dates with a 743. Was it any coincidence that the 743 dates had higher bookings level than the MD11 dates?

Mark






 
Qb001
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 1:33 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the demand on YYZ-AMS or YUL-AMS is, in fact, a demand for AMS-YYZ or AMS-YUL. What I mean by that is that the bulk of pax traveling between these cities are probably Dutch tourists. I know for a fact that there is nowhere you can go in Canada in the summer time and not stumble at least once on some Dutch tourists. I remember having been in L'Anse-Aux-Meadows, Nfld (another name for "the end of the world") in June and meeting... some Dutch tourists! It's not a complain, not at all, I really appreciate tourists. I just wonder if that flow of Dutch tourists could not explain the impressive popularity of these flights.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
 
captaingomes
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:11 pm

Benoit, while we may get many Dutch tourists, KLM is renowned for their connections via AMS, so I would imagine the bulk of passengers fly the route and use AMS to connect elsewhere in KLM's extensive network.
"it's kind of like an Airbus, it's an engineering marvel, but there's no sense of passion" -- J. Clarkson re: Coxster
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:18 pm

Martinair would be the one withthe Dutch tourists.

Mark
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 7:11 pm

It doesnt matter what the stats say on airliner world.

Ya right. A 17% decrease in YUL traffic is just too embarassing to consider huh?  Insane

Then why is WestJet gonna ant it up to 7 flights daily?

Big deal. WJ has a larger presence in YYJ, YVR, YEG, YYC, YXE, YQR, YWG, YOW, YYZ than YUL. WJ indeed added service to 10 Ontario cities before YUL. I think the question is: why did WJ wait so long to add add YUL? (Answer: limited market opportunity); and why is YUL only getting 7 flights/day (again, limited market opportunity).




I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
AC320
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 9:13 pm

Ya right. A 17% decrease in YUL traffic is just too embarassing to consider huh?

No, because your 17% figure simply doesn't exist. I just went to the ADM site and ran the figures myself. in 2002 there was a 7.6947279% decrease in passenger levels from 2001. So, yes your stats do not matter since they are flat out wrong.

WestJet is giving YUL 7 daily flights. Great, fantastic. Does it matter who got service first? Absolutely not.
fuddle duddle
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:32 pm

Passenger traffic for YUL for 2001 vs 2002.

2001 2002
Jan 821k 654k
Feb 815k 670k
Mar 900k 735k
Apr 818k 671k
May 816k 720k
Jun 876k 773k
Total 5045k 4222k

A drop of 17% based on 6 months. You could call YUL the incredibly shrinking airport (although it was never big to begin with).

WestJet is giving YUL 7 daily flights. Great, fantastic. Does it matter who got service first? Absolutely not.

Yes , it matters. FLYYUL was bragging again about WJ adding YUL. The fact is that WJ has been adding service to cities as small as 50k population BEFORE YUL. YUL was actually added extremely late to the WJ network....perhaps in line with the very poor prospects for such a city.







[Edited 2003-06-05 15:38:06]
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
AC320
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:40 pm

But then YUL gained in the coming quarters and yielded a net drop of only 7.7%, so I fail to see the problem. Traffic so far is up 5.6% this year. Poor prospects, would you please stop pulling stuff out of thin air. You don't like YUL, fine. Can we have a single thread about this city or airport without you coming in and starting this mess? It's gotten old Neil, you don't like YUL/Montreal, do we have to hear about it every day?
fuddle duddle
 
Noise
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Thu Jun 05, 2003 11:04 pm

There was a 17% drop in the Q1 of 2002 at all major airports across North America, even YYZ, so what's your point? Your talking about last years stats. Usually a 5.6% gain in passenger volume does not indicate it is shrinking.
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 1:34 am

AC320--Poor prospects, would you please stop pulling stuff out of thin air. You don't like YUL, fine. Can we have a single thread about this city or airport without you coming in and starting this mess? It's gotten old Neil, you don't like YUL/Montreal, do we have to hear about it every day?

LOL  Smile


Last night on CBC supper-hour news Shari Okeke (the business reporter) was talking about YUL now being an attractive locale --along with other Canadian airports-- for more traffic, as well a "de-hubbing" trend likely from a YYZ saddled with high costs even in the wake of reduced traffic numbers. Airline analysts, airport administrators (from YWG) and YUL passengers interviewed at the airport, variously weighing in on the subject as well.
 
flyyul
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 1:36 am

For the East Coast, YUL getting 7 flights a day is just behind YYZ and behind the hub YHM. You, the same person that said WestJet would never serve Montreal for lack of market oppurtunity.

Neil are you going to ignore the numbers? The numbers are the numbers, you change them. You cant all of a sudden decide to say that 17% of YUL traffic has suddenly vanished.

The prospects look pretty good. The economy has done well. UAX will be here with 7 flights as of July 06 which is good (Yes its not mainline!), OS will be with 4 flights, and Lufthansa will be here. Lufthansa's flights for the summmer are sold-out, including business class. The first available inbound business class between MUC and YUL is Aug 08.

Mark
 
Noise
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 2:04 am

It's best to ignore him.
 
Qb001
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 2:16 am

Nice to see I'm not the only one this guy is annoying...
Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
 
captaingomes
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 3:20 am

Qb001, I called you Benoit, I had you confused with somebody else!  Big grin Sorry about that.
"it's kind of like an Airbus, it's an engineering marvel, but there's no sense of passion" -- J. Clarkson re: Coxster
 
Skywatcher
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 3:23 am

Why would anybody put a negative spin on an impartial, seemingly good news headline ?

A +17% capacity increase (from a Canwest newspaper source) is a positive news event isn't it ?

Why do people have to think that somebody's or some places good fortune diminishes their own situation ?

I try to discourage that kind of thought process in my young kids.

+17% YUL growth = congratulations.Especially these days above all. Keep up the good work.

 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Grow 17% At YUL

Fri Jun 06, 2003 5:03 am

Last night on CBC supper-hour news Shari Okeke (the business reporter) was talking about YUL now being an attractive locale --along with other Canadian airports-- for more traffic, as well a "de-hubbing" trend likely from a YYZ saddled with high costs even in the wake of reduced traffic numbers. Airline analysts, airport administrators (from YWG) and YUL passengers interviewed at the airport, variously weighing in on the subject as well.

I saw the same report. All they did was show a few clips from an ADM meeting quoting the ADM CEO and the YWG/WAA CEO......talking about how "attractive" YUL and YWG are for more traffic.....ironic that these 2 cities have floundered lately and losing traffic due to their poor economies. Seemed more like wishful thinking to me.

There was a 17% drop in the Q1 of 2002 at all major airports across North America, even YYZ, so what's your point?

Well, what's the point of this thread other than YUL self glossing?

For the East Coast, YUL getting 7 flights a day is just behind YYZ

WJ will only serve YYZ from Western Canada. YUL has no strategic restrictions with WJ...and yet, can still only muster 7 dailies.

The prospects look pretty good.

No, they don't. YUL's economy continues to lag that of most of Canada. This will reflect over time in YUL traffic figures falling further & further behind YYZ, YVR and soon YYC.

Why would anybody put a negative spin on an impartial, seemingly good news headline ? A +17% capacity increase (from a Canwest newspaper source) is a positive news event isn't it ?

This is just manipulation of numbers. You can't brag about a 17% increase when your traffic has just declined 20+%. Overall, it's a decline. It's just more incessant YUL self glossing for an airport that wants desperately to be with the big guys.

a "de-hubbing" trend likely from a YYZ

How will this help YUL? YUL can't even support nonstops to SFO (the only 2M+ city in North America that can't), nor ATL.













I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.