atcboy73
Posts: 1084
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St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Wed Jun 11, 2003 9:41 pm

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2003/06/09/story1.html

I've been thinking about this the last few weeks. I honestly don't think AA will close the STL hub.

I've been wondering how big AA connection could get. Is there anything that limits the size of connections operations like pilot contracts at Eagle or mainline?

Of there isn't, I bet we could see an AA operation that mirrors the DL operation at DFW, with 8 banks a day and AA service to only the largest business centers like ATL, BOS, LGA, EWR, PHL, DCA, ORD, DFW, SEA, SFO , SJC, LAX, PHX, SAN, SNA, DEN, MCI and maybe AUS and SAT along with major leisure cities like LAS, MCO, TPA, FLL and MIA.

The interesting thing about this idea is that today airlines have a wide variety of options. Who knows, maybe with this kind of operation we could see something like 8 E135s a day on the STL-DTW route and many other routes out of STL. The people defiantly are there to fill that kind of operation, AA just needs to better match capacity and costs and frequence to STL and it would seem to be the best way to do this is to put alot of it onto AA connection.
 
CPH-R
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Wed Jun 11, 2003 9:43 pm

 
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yyz717
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 12:59 am

You have to wonder why AA would need 3 Central Time Zone hubs even in good times. Clearly the STL hub risks being seriously downsized.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
atcboy73
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thou

Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:16 am

Yyz717, 3 central time zone hubs is a lot and the subject of being seriously downsized is why I brought this up. I know its been talked about many time before but I have just started thinking about this in a different way.

AA currently operates 5 MD80s a day STL-DTW (for example). Thats roughly 650 seats a day. Even if they stayed with their currant hub schedule layout and replaced them with E145s at 50 seats a trip thats only 250 seats a day. Then again they could do 10 daily and serve DTW from every bank and still only offer 500 seats but with more frequencies.

I guess you could say I have come to a new way of looking at the central part of the country for AA. With jets now capable of carrying as little as 37 people, the only question would be what pilot and other clauses would keep AA from operating such a system. If there is no such thing holding them back then all they need to do is get the planes.

Does anyone else understand what I am trying to say?
 
luv2fly
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:32 am

I guess if I had my choice of flying via STL on a regional jet or via DFW on a mainline jet, I would take the mainline jet. No I am not looking for upgrades to first, I just like the bigger plane be it a 737 or MD80 or should I say super 80! I know I am not alone feeling this.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
ctbarnes
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:44 am

Part of AA's interest in STL was strategic, as a way of taking some pressure off its very congested hub at ORD by diverting some of their passenger trafffic through there.

I know AA is hurting right now, but dismantling the STL hub would be very short sighted; air traffic will pick up again and American will need the extra capacity STL affords when it does.

Charles, SJ



[Edited 2003-06-11 18:50:54]
The customer isn't a moron, she is your wife -David Ogilvy
 
AIR757200
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 2:17 am


Short-term, I can see the S80's remaining on the DTW route.

The five STL flights always had the highest load factor (I personally think also had the lowest yield) on average compared to many of the other flights. A large percentage of it was O&D traffic. However, if they matched the seating availability, 8-10 RJ flights could work just as well.
 
SESGDL
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 3:43 am

I could see it mirroring Delta's Cincinnati hub. Delta has about 160 mainline flights while DL Connection has about 370 daily flights.

Jeremy
 
tekelberry
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 4:14 am

Does anyone else understand what I am trying to say?

Yea, that AA should operate American Eagle and American Connection everywhere in the central US instead of mainline... :rolleyes:

That'll draw a LOT of business since everybody loves those RJ's.  Big grin
 
atcboy73
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thou

Thu Jun 12, 2003 5:30 am

Tekelberry

No, Im not saying that. I think there are many routes out of STL that can still support a good amount of mainline service. Take STL-ATL, ORD, DEN, MCI, DFW and maybe STL-MSP. But man, AA has shown they don't want to operate mainline on most of their Chicago routes under what 400 miles.

I just trying to (I guess) predict the future and see what everyone else thinks. Im starting to think they will maintain the hub in some for or another and am just wondering what it will look like in the future.

I have a special interest in this operation being that I am an air traffic controller who has a transfer bid to work at the STL tower. If I go to STL I would greatly prefer the AA hub still be there.
 
AIR757200
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 6:15 am

Atcboy73, I know what your saying.

However, not all of the routes <400 miles from ORD are equiped with RJ's. Looking at the route map, many of these cities <400 from ORD are smaller cities that may notsupport mainline service at the frequency of what the RJ's are providing. Just like you mentioned above, ATL, DEN, MCI, DFW, MSP are much larger cities than what the RJ's currently serve.
 
twalives
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 6:24 am

I think AA will pull out, Jet Blue will come in and the easter bunny will marry the tooth fairy.

There is no way to predict what will happen considering AA's change of management, the pathetic airline industry as a whole and poor political leadership in STL. All of these contributing factors have led us to where we are now and there is no one in this forum who could have predicted this 3 years ago.

Only one thing is certain, something in STL has to give.



 
Capt.Fantastic
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 6:41 am

Does anyone have stats on the number of flights AA operated at STL after the acquisition of TWA, and how many they currently operate? (I don't want passenger numbers, but daily flights out of STL)

Thanks.
 
AIR757200
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 11:16 am

Next schedule change is June 13/14/15, depending on flight frequency. Therefore, the "weekday" number of flights appears to be about 418 departures. (I don't have any data on when AA acquired TWA).

[Edited 2003-06-12 04:18:39]
 
Fleet Service
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 12:20 pm

I think the greatest error AA made with regard to STL was not keeping the 717.

The 717 was an ideal aircraft for STL, so many routes where a S-80 was/is overkill.

Long thin routes,routes that are too heavy for RJ's,routes that require multiple frequencies like STL-ORD, STL-DFW.

Add in the accelerated retirement of the F100 and the capacity gap between EMB-135/45 and the S-80 and you can see where the 717 would bridge the gap perfectly.

Ahh well....
Yes, I actually *do* work for an airline,how about you?
 
venuscat2
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thou

Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:54 pm

I think that if AA were to drastically reduce service at STL, WN would come in and drastically increase service. I would think that this would be a big plus for WN.
 
atcboy73
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thou

Thu Jun 12, 2003 3:01 pm

AIR757200

Is 418 total mainline departures, total jet departures or just total departures inculding jets and props?
 
LV
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 3:35 pm

Venuscat,
I am going to have to disagree with you. I think STL is becoming less and less important to WN. Especially with the new transcon market WN has entered STL is less important in the overall plan. Addtionally, STL is developing congestion problems that serious hurt turn around times...something WN wants to avoid at all cost. While I am not sure if we will see a retrenchment by WN, I definatly don't see any expansion at Lambert for them
 
Capt.Fantastic
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 5:41 pm

I am assuming 418 is mainline + commuter movements - even still, that seems a bit high, given the fact AA has been downsizing. (I don't think T-way had that many before the merger.)

Anyway, I hope the best for St. Louis and that AA will continue to operate it as a major hub. But as has been pointed out, a significant downsizing seems inevitable. Right now, it makes sense for American to allocate resources to their bread and butter, which does not include St. Louis.

I could see St Louis functioning as a "Delta in Dallas", serving major markets on the East and West coasts. This would alleviate congestion at Dallas and Chicago, and still supply a descent amount of non-stop service for local traffic.

Southwest is another story altogether.

Hopefully, this downturn in the industry will swing back up, and the need for another mid-western hub will again be a viable resource for American.
 
HlywdCatft
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 9:39 pm

**You have to wonder why AA would need 3 Central Time Zone hubs even in good times. Clearly the STL hub risks being seriously downsized.**


What's the difference than USAirways having 3 Eastern with PHL, PIT and CLT, plus focus cities in BOS, DCA and LGA, and a former 4th hub at BWI?
 
luv2fly
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 10:13 pm

Yes US just got out of bankruptcy and AA almost joined them! US to many hubs in the same area/time zone and AA facing the same situation.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
AIR757200
Posts: 1466
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RE: St Louis Trying To Keep The AMR Hub/other Thoughts

Thu Jun 12, 2003 11:49 pm

Sorry folks, the 418 is with AA-mainline and American Connection (eff. June 16).

Ok, this is unofficial, but we can use this has a very good indicator as to how the flights are operated.

American Connection: 205
American Airlines: 213

[Edited 2003-06-12 16:53:25]

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