pzurita1
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NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 7:28 am

Last weekend I did some multiplications and adds to calculate the total number of available seats between NYC (JFK, EWR, LGA) and YTO (YYZ)

I got 17,311 weekly seats. This number seems rather small, especially if you compare it with other relevant routes: HKG-TPE (35,788 weekly seats); BKK-HKG (20,966 seats); DUB-LON (57,659 seats), AA), New Zealand">AKL-SYD (16,789); LON-NYC (53,580 seats); etc.

I would have expected this route (NYC-YTO) to be very impressive in terms of available seats, especially if you consider that it links the two financial centers of Economy #1 and Economy # 7 in the World. I mean, even MEX-LAX is almost 11,000 weekly available seats.

I am afraid I would have done a mistake... What do you think?

AC has 9,200 weekly seats (about 12 daily flights in 319, 320 and CRJ)
AA offers 3,565 seats (about 5 daily flights with F100 mainly)
CO offers 2,436 (about 6 daily flights with ERJ and 735)
Jetsgo offers 1,760 (11x weekly with MD83)
DL only offers 350 with a sole daily CRJ operation

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DCA-ROCguy
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 7:48 am

NYC-Toronto is, in my view, underserved, and has been for a long time. The reason is that there isn't low-fare competition on transborder routes to Northeastern and Midwestern USA business centers. Jetsgo is the only exception I can think of, and it's brand new and only offering a tiny handful of seats to EWR.

WestJet has said that in about 18 months they plan to launch USA service; apparently they want to 'fill out' their Canadian network first, according to the interviews with their execs I've read. NYC will probably be one of the first place WestJet goes--probably to EWR or JFK. Whether they go from their YHM mini-hub or YYZ, who knows.

Also, JetBlue has expressed interest in YHM. But they haven't made any commitment or suggested any timetable.

Either one of these carriers would probably stimulate a great deal of traffic on a natural business and leisure route.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
Noise
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 7:51 am

No route is underserved. Big grin
 
northstardc4m
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 8:08 am

before comparing YTO-NYC to some of those Asian routes remember you can drive between the 2 in a few hours. How many people go on other modes of transport (car, bus train) which arent possible in most of those other pairs. Also how many people fly NYC-BUF and then continue to YTO?
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VonRichtofen
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:22 am

If there's a market, the flights would be there.

It's as simple as that.
 
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yyz717
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:34 am

I concur with Noise and vonRichtofen. No market is underserved.

Interestingly, the number of seats NYC-YTO has probably stalled or declined in the last 15 years due to the US-Canada open skies. Prior to this, the restrictive bilateral limited the number of US-Canada city pairs which tended to funnel traffic thru YYZ-ORD and YYZ-LGA etc. Now much US-Canada traffic does not need to funnel thru a small number of gateways.

For instance, in 1981 AA flew 8 daily YYZ-LGA, 6 with the 722 & 2 with the DC-10-10! Now they only have 7 daily YYZ-LGA (6 with the F100, 1 with the MD-80).

Jetsgo is the first LCC in this market. If the demand is there, they will grow.



I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
flyyul
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 10:00 am

YYZ-NYC is very adequately served... AC's flights on the hour are usually half to 2/3 full on average.. AA's flight are very heavy in business class, but never usually in coach.. DL's to JFK is for connex at JFK. JetsGo is JetsGo, their numbers dont mean a thing  Big thumbs up Watch for JetBleue!!!

Mark
 
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yyz717
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 10:09 am

Given that YYZ-LGA is a very heavy business route with high yields, AC and AA would probably not want the load factor to get much above 70% on a reg basis.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
DTWNWA
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 11:07 am

with open skies there is no question of any Canadian/American market being underserved.
 
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STT757
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 12:26 pm

When I went to Toronto I flew to Buffalo and drove across the border, there's folks who do that and/or..

Take Amtrak's Mapleleaf from NY Penn-Toronto..
http://amtrak.com/trains/mapleleaf.html

Or just drive the 4.5-5 hours.

You can't drive from Taipei to Hong Kong.

Amtrak's daily MapleLeaf route..


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DCA-ROCguy
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 12:41 pm

If there's a market, the flights would be there. It's as simple as that.

Sorry, it's *not* as "simple as that." Airlines are run by human beings and are imperfect, and sometimes routes for one reason or another don't have the service that demand could support. The existence and rip-roaring success of JetBlue, for example, is evidence of that. Airlines regularly find, hey, this city-pair has more profit potential than is being realized, let's enter there.

Most commonly, the network carriers on a route have high yields, and don't want anyone messing that up. They serve only part of the demand. When an LCC enters, demand shoots up and enplanements rise. Sometimes, as we all know, an LCC can turn a once-dead pax airport (think YHM) into a thriving terminal.

That's why I think NYC-Toronto is underserved. Big, serious LCC's haven't penetrated it yet. I could be wrong, but two such natural business centers could support more traffic than what Pzurita1 listed, if the fares were lower.

Jim


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Jayce
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 12:44 pm

Neil,

JetsGo isn't the first LCC in this market. A few years ago, my cousin flew YYZ-EWR on Canada 3000. Apparently, the loads were quite high.

But I agree that no market is underserved, if the flights are there, obviously so is the demand.

Jay
"Trying is the first step towards failure" -Homer Simpson
 
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yyz717
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 12:52 pm

JetsGo isn't the first LCC in this market. A few years ago, my cousin flew YYZ-EWR on Canada 3000. Apparently, the loads were quite high.

Thanks for the reminder Jay. I had forgotten about the C3 service.


I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Rafabozzolla
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 1:04 pm

I would like to add that apart from the fact that it is possible to drive from NYC to Toronto, the market is fragmented. I.e. there are flights to YYZ from all over the NE not only from NYC, whereas the other markets used as an example are all heavily concentrated around a few major airports.
 
C-GRYK
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 1:12 pm

I believe it's adequately served, if I wanted to fly to New York City tomorrow morning out of YYZ, I'd be able to do so....

Jeremy
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hmmmm...
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 1:49 pm

One does not drive from Toronto to NYC in 4.5 hours. It is double that.
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Jean Leloup
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 2:28 pm

Yeah! I was going to say, driving from YYZ to NYC has got to take at LEAST 10 hours. It takes 5 hours to drive from there to Watertown, if you're going that way, then I imageine at least 6 hours from there on. (Don't know, never done that part.) I imagine some people do drive, but I don't think it's viable for most people, especially for business. It's nothing like YYZ-YUL, for instance. How long does the Amtrak take?
Next flight.... who knows.
 
B747-437B
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 5:12 pm

driving from YYZ to NYC has got to take at LEAST 10 hours

I've driven from Northern NJ to Scarborough (including an hour in traffic on the 401) in just under 8 hours, so that is probably a more realistic estimate.
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Boeing757/767
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:08 pm

9 hours is probably the happy medium. That has been my average (with a couple of brief stops).

One hassle factor is the border crossing, which is now a lot longer when driving.
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captaink
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:54 pm

Amtrak takes 12 hours at least in my only expereince.. Next time.. I will go with the plane..
There is something special about planes....
 
zrb2
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:30 am

When I went to Toronto I flew to Buffalo and drove across the border, there's folks who do that and/or..

True, there are some people that make the drive from Toronto to catch Jetblue out of BUF but there definitely is a hassle factor. Any traffic on the QEW, construction and/or bridge delays makes a 90 minute drive into a much longer trek. The usual Southern Ontario passenger(s) that BUF gets is someone going on a much longer trip than NYC.
I agree that any LCC to enter the YYZ/YHM market to NYC would definitely uncover a new market of people that usually drive. I think AC would do everything in it's power to keep the business flyers though.
 
pzurita1
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:53 am

Thanks to all of you guys.
And thanks to all discussions produced by my thread, I realize that my numbers are not that incorrect as I was afraid. I will try to measure available seats from YUL to NYC to see if distance is really a factor in YTO-NYC air market.
I am also considering that there are way to many options to fly from NE to Ontario or the rest of Canada, so that might undermine this market if compared with city pairs as HKG-TPE or DUB-LON.

PZ
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trintocan
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RE: NYC-Toronto, Underserved?

Sat Jun 28, 2003 6:24 pm

A very interesting thread. Another point that should be mentioned is that NY and Toronto are on the continent and thus, as mentioned, the land links tend to fragment the market. Where islands are concerned (eg LHR/LGW/STN-DUB and TPE-HKG) there will always be a tendency to provide more capacity than immediately apparently needed simply because there may be no alternative links and as a result, to cater for late bookings, business pax and the like, extra services may be provided. For instance, the POS-TAB link between Trinidad & Tobago sees some 12-15 flights daily using 50-seat Dash 8 300s in each direction. This appears a lot of capacity for TAB (50 000 pop.) but because the only alternative is a slow 5-hour ferry ride which operates once daily and the need for many in Tobago to do business etc. in Trinidad, the frequency is maintained at this level. Admittedly, there are subsidies on this particular route.

TrintoCan.
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