727LOVER
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What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:28 am

...these airports in the next 3-5 years.

Scale of 1 to 100

100 being absolutely positive, you get the idea



Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (ABE)
Richmond (RIC)
Milwaukee (MKE)
Portland, ME. (PWM)
Rochester, N.Y. (ROC)
Syracuse (SYR)
Burlington, Vt. (BTV)
Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (GSO)
Mobile (MOB)
Des Moines (DSM)
Witchita (ICT)
Ft. Myers (RSW)
Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ)
Minnieapolis/ St. Paul (MSP)
Charleston, S.C. (CHS)
Memphis (MEM)
Knoxville (TYS)
Baton Rouge (???)
Shreveport (???)
Newburg, N.Y. (???)
Atlantic City (ACY)
White Plains (HPN)
Wilmington, DE. (???)
Trenton, N.J. (TTN)



Love Trumps Hate
 
UN_B732
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:39 am

Some of these smaller stations.........zero.
Southwest has a policy of having to have 10 flights a day to a station.
Isn't that true?
Look at jetBlue.........Maybe them? I can tell you that HPN has NIMBYs all over the place.
-UN
What now?
 
TLHFLA
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:46 am

I can comment on the Florida cities you mentioned and Mobile:

Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ) - Not likely. Southwest has a strong presence at Tampa (TPA) and TPA is close enough to get people from Sarasota/Bradenton to make the drive for lower fares.

Ft. Myers (RSW) - Good possibility. This area has really grown and there is definitely enough demand for more flights. I am not sure if the area is plagued with high fares, but I believe that Southwest could be successful here.

Mobile (MOB) - This area is really underserved for its size. Southwest could really have a lock on the market if they were to enter.
Bill in ATL
 
tol air
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:58 am

what about...

San Juan (SJU)
Aguadilla (BQN)
Ponce
Mayaguez

where could they serve to/from

also...could they establish a mini focus city out of SJU to the Caribbean, Central America and Eastern US? WHen will this happen
?
 
drewwright
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:59 am


Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (ABE) 5
Richmond (RIC) 25
Milwaukee (MKE) 25
Portland, ME. (PWM) 5
Rochester, N.Y. (ROC) 5
Syracuse (SYR) 50
Burlington, Vt. (BTV) 5
Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (GSO) 50
Mobile (MOB) 25
Des Moines (DSM) 5
Witchita (ICT) 50
Ft. Myers (RSW) 75
Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ) 5
Minnieapolis/ St. Paul (MSP) 10
Charleston, S.C. (CHS) 25
Memphis (MEM) 60
Knoxville (TYS) 5
Baton Rouge (???) 0
Shreveport (???) 0
Newburg, N.Y. (???) 0
Atlantic City (ACY) 0
White Plains (HPN) 15
Wilmington, DE. (???) 0
Trenton, N.J. (TTN) 0
 
UN_B732
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:01 am

Is anyone here remembering the 10 flights a day rule!?!??!?!?!?!??!?!?!
What now?
 
luv2fly
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:10 am

I really do not see any of these flights on the radar! Sorry.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
drewwright
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:14 am

I could really see Ft. Meyers, they could fly from Nashville, Baltimore, Houston and Las Vegas. I'll bet they could pull off some nice loads to boot.
Memphis could be a possibility because it really has no LLC service. top that with a central location I think SW would wreak havoc on NW there.

DRW
 
covert
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:16 am

You forgot PIT, Mr. 727...
none
 
LV
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:04 am

What kind of timeframe are you looking for. As WN reaches critical mass and is forced to restructure its business plan 25 years from now these could all be served.

As far as in the next five years...here is my guess (and like everyone else on here....no matter what they claim....its just a guess....or at least and educationed one  Smile

Okay, WN seems to have made it clear that they want a bigger piece of the east coast. Other postings on this forum have definatly seem to come to the conclusion that WN wants to concentrate on becoming a bigger player in the Southeast (as we all know...DL dominates and US is enjoying its cake as well)

So based on the cities you asked about

Allentown....Oh, I would say 45-60...I mean the Northeast is just to prime for picking right now

Richmond....while it is close to ORF...and might draw away from BWI...it would grab more traffic from the southern half of the DC metro....40-50

Milwaukee....no way...Midwest isnt that close to death and AirTran along with Northwest are ready to duke it out....0

Portland, ME...WN may like the Northeast but I don't think this fits their market profile....10

Rochester.....Could be...but Jetblue and Airtran are already there....10-20

Syracuse....See Rochester

Burlington....nope...Jet Blue already there and won't fill enough planes...0


Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem....actually its just Greensboro and High Point....Winston Salem should not be included...there is a whole other thread on this somewhere else if you are interested in why. Anyway, I argued no orgianlly...to close to RDU but eventually I started to agree with detracters....the Triangle and Triad are each big enough to support a station and GSO could do a better job drawing from CLT then RDU currently does. Not sure GSO is captive to high fares...I found MCI-CVG-GSO-ATL-MCI sub 300 on less than 24 hours notice less than a week before Christmas, or I would rate it really high....I put it at 60-70

Mobile....70...not close to MSY...could draw from as far away as PFN

Des Moines....5...on a good day....to close to OMA and MCI

Witchita....-2...they cant even keep Airtran...the Wright Admendment is the only thing this airport has going for it.

Ft. Meyers....Interesting...never really thought about it....definatly fits the profile and WN seems to want to get more into Florida...oust DL as the official state bird of the sunshine state....hum 50-70

Sarasota....5...to close to TPA and RSW (if RSW happens)

MSP...5....congestion bad....similar to DTW and I don't think WN really wanted to be at DTW to begin with.

Charleston....60-70....I have heard them mentioned before by other people. CHS would be making a big statement in the Southeast...which is what WN is looking for.

MEM...doubt it...10 at best....to close to LIT and BNA

Knoxville....5....not yet

The rest of the list....below 5 for varying reasons.

Again, Just my best educated guess  Smile
 
mjzair
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:10 am

The only airport i can comment on is Newburgh (SWF)
I would think that the chance of service there are quite good. Southeast Airlines has added a second flight a day between SWF - SFB, so that would seem to me that there is a demand there... plus, the population base of the area would warrant the service especially attracting HPN travellers since airfare out of HPN is so expnesive.
 
ual767ord
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 11:26 am

Southwest would never go into HPN. Not only is it expensive it is way too small and can't expand. I live in the area and a lot of people got upset because one airline had a flight coming in at 11 pm. People complaine about UA's 737's coming in but NW, US, and AA fly jetliner sevice into HPN. HPN is mostly business travel and WN is not mostlly a business airline. It would be nice but I have to give a 0 for HPN.
 
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STT757
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 11:50 am

"White Plains (HPN)"

The most unlikely of the list.

"Richmond (RIC)"

The most likely of the list.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
desertjets
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:02 pm

Of those listed, Richmond, Greensboro, and Rochester would be my picks.

Richmond really does not capture from southern DC metro area, unless you are counting Fredericksburg/Stafford/Spotsylvania. From Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church and even as far south as Springfield or Woodbridge you are looking at a good 2 hrs to get to RIC. Remember this is I-95 traffic we are talking about. Competition between Richmond and Norfolk is a greater concern. You are looking at maybe 90 minutes at the most door to door between the airports, it would be a bigger issue had Southwest opted for PHF instead. But between Richmond and Norfolk you are looking at 2 metros with well over 2 million people combined, big enough to support dual Southwest stations. Plus Richmond can easily draw from central and southside VA.

Same story goes for Raleigh-Durham and Greensboro Triad as for the Richmond/Norfolk. Both big enough on their own to not cannibalize operations.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
ScottB
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 1:42 pm

ABE: 20-40 Cons: too close to BWI, smallish metro area at 640,000. Pros: Able to draw from Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Wilkes Barre/Scranton, and the NYC suburbs in Northern NJ.

RIC: 100 Larger metro area at 1.00 million. Able to draw somewhat from the southern DC metro as well as a broad swath of VA. And...Southwest said they intended to serve RIC in the future when ORF was announced. To quote their press release: "Southwest Airlines, which brackets the Norfolk area with service from Baltimore/Washington and Raleigh-Durham, also intends to serve the Richmond International Airport. Kelleher stated that Southwest plans to serve Richmond 'at the appropriate time in the future,' but first needs to complete terminal expansion projects in several cities that would be desirable Richmond destinations but which currently lack the necessary facilities for additional flights."

MKE: 20 Large metro area at 1.69 million, can also draw folks north of Chicago who are unwilling to drive to MDW. AirTran and NWA at MKE are NOT the issue; the real question is the fate of Midwest Airlines. It seems like the state of Wisconsin and Milwaukee County are going to try to do their best to help out YX, though.

PWM: 0 Too small (metro population of 240,000), too close to MHT (MHT already gets passengers from Southern Maine), not close enough to Boston.

ROC: 10 Strong population base at 1.10 million, but a short drive on the Thruway from BUF. Possible once there are more gates at BWI; are there enough empty gates at ROC for WN to have two to start?

SYR: 10 Smaller than ROC at 730,000, but more distant from ALB and BUF than ROC from BUF. Also can potentially draw from Utica, Binghamton, etc., but is probably more likely long-term than short-term.

GSO: 75 Actually larger than RDU at 1.25 million (and why wouldn't it draw from Winston-Salem; INT hasn't had commercial service for a few years?). Served by US Airways Express from BWI (most airports in the East added by WN had had non-stop flights on US to BWI). Also would draw from western NC and passengers looking to avoid high fares from CLT.

MOB: 25 Smallish metro area at 540,000, but within the Wright/Shelby Amendment perimeter. Could draw traffic to/from PNS, which is also a roughly 25% possibility for WN.

DSM: 5 Small metro area at 460,000, Access Air failed because the locals were unwilling to support the hometown LCC. And it's close to both OMA and MCI. Might be possible in the future (~10 years) with flights to MDW, BWI, STL, PHX, and LAS.

ICT: 5 Smallish metro area at 550,000, poor history with LCC's, very close to MCI and TUL and OKC. The only plus is that they could serve DAL (if the locals actually stopped flying AA).

RSW: 50 Lots of traffic even though the metro population is only 440,000, and the new terminal should be done within the next 2-3 years. The primary disadvantages are that RSW traffic is far more seasonal than the other Florida airports *and* it's too close to MCO, TPA, FLL, and PBI to justify service to those airports. And I doubt that RSW-JAX is a really popular route. But it would be workable with flights to MDW, BWI, BNA, ISP, and possibly MSY or RDU.

SRQ: 0 Too close to TPA, even though the population (590,000) is larger than Fort Myers. I've also heard it said SRQ has some of the highest fees in the country.

MSP: 0 I don't see WN entering the other majors' fortress hub cities (MSP, MEM, ATL, CVG, CLT, PHL, PIT, EWR, DEN, SFO v2.0, IAD) for at least 10-15 years, unless said fortress hub city is abandoned by its hubbing airline. There are too many other, better opportunities that don't involve brutal fare wars and hub city passengers who are swayed by frequent flyer loyalty programs.

CHS: 0 Small metro area at 550,000 and not much additional population within 100 miles. CAE would be a better choice even though its population is slightly smaller.

MEM 5 Same reasoning as MSP, but a possibility *only if* NWA were forced to abandon its hub at MEM for financial reasons. Not likely in my opinion though, but more likely than MSP. Smallest metro area with a major passenger airline hub at 1.14 million.

TYS: 10 Medium-sized metro area at 690,000 and can draw from a fairly large area, but it's likely WN has bigger fish to fry in the next 3-5 years.

BTR: 0 Smallish metro area at 600,000, and it's too close to MSY.

SHV: 0 Small metro area at 390,000, three hours' drive from Dallas. And if they haven't served it by now, it's not a priority.

SWF: 5 Can draw from the northern NYC suburbs but it's REALLY on the outer edge of the area. Good highway access but it's a hike for people in Westchester (50+ miles on the Thruway) while LGA is <20 miles and a straight shot down the Hutch and over the Whitestone Bridge (though the traffic at the tolls can SUCK). A slam-dunk if it were 30 miles farther south.

ACY: 0 Already very well-served for low fares by Spirit. And too close to BWI.

HPN: 0 They already explored the possibility, the NIMBY's are adamantly against it. Will happen the day after never.

ILG: 0 Not much in the way of facilities and only about 75 miles from BWI.

TTN: 5 Short runways and poor terminal facilities. Great location, though the local NIMBY's will prevent the airport from ever being expanded.
 
LV
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:15 pm

I never said that GSO didnt draw from Winston Salem....it does....it draws a ton of traffic from Winston Salem. What I meant by that is that officially...PTI (Piedmont Triad International) doesn't serve W-S. Something about when the airport was built W-S didn't put up its part of the bucks since Reynolds airport had commerical service at that time. So officially, PTI only serves Greensboro and High Point....but that is just a technicallity point.

Anyway...I also meant to cover PIT in my posting...which somebody mentioned.

The situation at PIT and whether it will ever be served by WN in the foreseeable future comes down to AA and the plans in the war room in Ft. Worth. How does AA affect whether PIT is served by WN you ask?

Well, based on statements by AA, sounds like something bad is getting ready to happen at Lambert....and depending on how bad AA "Reno's" Lambert I could see US dropping PIT like third period French and suddenly discovering that there is a part of the United States west of the Mighy Miss....with its hub to build up that prescence a mere 30 min. Metrolink ride from the Arch.
 
ScottB
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:24 pm

LV-

Kind of a silly distinction; I suppose one could say that BDL "doesn't serve" Springfield MA since it's owned by the state of CT (even though pretty much all schedules refer to it as Hartford/Springfield, and it's an equal distance from both). Or that RDU doesn't serve Chapel Hill, since it's in neither Durham nor Wake Counties.

I think US Airways would be insane to try to start a hub at STL, given the large WN presence there and the substantial cost of opening enough stations to the West/South to justify a hub operation there. And the fact that they have essentially no market presence at STL today.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:34 pm

Thanks Scottb for that detailed and informative post! We have lots of these "Where will WN go next threads," and that's one of most concise, thorough, and detailed responses I've seen.

ROC: 10 Strong population base at 1.10 million, but a short drive on the Thruway from BUF. Possible once there are more gates at BWI; are there enough empty gates at ROC for WN to have two to start?

ROC has enough empty gates to easily find two for WN. I would say that about 17 of the 22 gates are meaningfully used. All but one are leased; the county has control of one, which JetBlue uses. But the network carriers are hurting enough that Monroe County could probably easily buy two out for Southwest. Already, United and American each sublet one for AirTran, something that would have been unheard of just three years ago.

I'd look for a shuffle--buy out AA's unused B5 and move JetBlue there, move the county gate back to B2 and buy out B4 from US--so B2 and B4 for WN. There would be enough ticket counter space on that side of the terminal even if JetBlue kept their ticketing there.

ROC is the economically strongest of the Upstate cities (which these days isn't saying a lot, but I for one think we'll come out stronger) and has the highest per-capita disposable income. AirTran and JetBlue are extremely successful at ROC, which shows that our business-heavy travel market is willing to embrace LCC's. US and the other Cartel-network carriers pissed off ROC's corporations with the rapine fares in the '90s, and everything I see in the papers suggests they haven't forgotten.

I too think that once the additional BWI gates come online, that we can expect more WN expansion on the East Coast. I'm with DesertJets--ROC, RIC, and GSO are all strong candidates, plus one airport in South Carolina to cover that state. Later they'll get to Syracuse.

South Carolina experts: why CHS instead of CAE? Just curious...CAE is in the middle of the state and could draw from the entire state. Is metro Charleston that much bigger than metro Columbia, or metro Greenville/Spartanburg?

New York is still a problem for WN...there's no convenient *and* available alternative airport. They'll eventually settle for ABE, I think.

Jim

Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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RayChuang
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:44 pm

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this possibility: Colorado Springs, CO (COS).  Confused

WN could literally do land office business from COS literally year-round. Not only does it make it possible for WN to capture a large portion of the skiiers who patronize the ski slopes from Colorado Springs and further south, but also Colorado Springs is a fast-growing area with a good number of industries located there. Also, Colorado Springs is close enough to Denver that it could siphon off some UA and F9 business from the southern suburbs of Denver.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Wed Jul 09, 2003 11:40 pm

Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (ABE) 40 - Close to PHL, but maybe too close to BWI. WN likes to feed traffic into BWI which would not work with ABE.

Richmond (RIC) - 85 This one should definitely happen.

Milwaukee (MKE) - 50 As mentioned it depends on YX's fate. If YX goes, the WN probability goes up.

Portland, ME. (PWM) - 5 Market is a little too small and lacks the good mix of leisure and business that WN likes.

Rochester, N.Y. (ROC) - 35 Decent sized market, but not as underserved as it once was. Proximity to BUF may delay ROC, additionally.

Syracuse (SYR) - 45 Slightly better candidate than ROC primarily because it has little low-fare service.

Burlington, Vt. (BTV) - 0 Too small and already covered by JBLU. Even JBLU wants to use smaller planes in this markets.

Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (GSO) - 75 Good chance, market has the size and central location.

Mobile (MOB) - 15 Definitely underserved, but somewhat problematic. The people of MOB have not always supported low-fares in the past, plus MOB doesn't have a lot of high O+D routes.

Des Moines (DSM) - 15 A very isolated market and it certainly needs lowfare service, but does it have some good O+D routes.

Witchita (ICT) - 2 Not likely given how poorly things have gone for FRNT and FL

Ft. Myers (RSW) - 65 The last big Florida market missing from WN's map, a good chance.

Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ) - 25 A good market (though more leisure than business), but may be too sandwiched in by TPA and RSW (assuming RSW happens).

Minnieapolis/ St. Paul (MSP) - 10 MSP needs more lowfares, but I don't see WN wanting to get into a slugfest with NW.

Charleston, S.C. (CHS) - 25 Definitely needs low-fare service, but again lacks a lot of high-volume routes. Probably a better market for Airtran.

Memphis (MEM) - 10 See MSP.

Knoxville (TYS) - 25 Similar problem to CHS.

Baton Rouge (???) - 5 Similar problems to CHS and too close to MSY.

Shreveport (???) - 5 A little on the small side and lacks enough high-volume routes.

Newburg, N.Y. (???) - 50 A good NYC market, but what about the NIMBY's?

Atlantic City (ACY) - 10 Could steal from the PHL market and still feed BWI, but its very leisure oriented and served by Spirit.

White Plains (HPN) - 50 Same situation as SWF (Newburg). NIMBY can be a real pain.

Wilmington, DE. (???) - 10 Good alternative to PHL, but a little close to BWI.

Trenton, N.J. (TTN) - 15 Good alternative to PHL, but the facilities are poor from what I've heard.

For markets whose populations are between 250K and 750K, WN seems less and less likely in the future. WN wants routes with good O+D volumes and these smaller markets just don't cut it. Many of them are better served being fed into a low-fare hub by the likes of FL or TZ or F9.

Unfortunately, many cities that are waiting for WN are likely in for some disappointment as WN is beginning to feel some size pressure and is slowing down.
 
CMK10
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Thu Jul 10, 2003 12:28 am

No chance what-so-ever at HPN. Getting slots there is harder then winning something at powerball, I've sat in on it and its hard for majors to keep the amount they have now, a new airline trying to get in would be hard. Also the people around do not want more 737s, to them every jet is a huge noisemaker. Also where would WN go from HPN? Two airlines allready serve Baltimore and all airlines that tried Florida routes gave up, its not a lesuire destination but rather a business one.
DC-10's Forever
"Traveling light is the only way to fly" - Eric Clapton
 
luv2fly
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Thu Jul 10, 2003 12:40 am

MKE - Do not see it happening the airport even did a gate complete in WN colors and such to woo them and no luck so far. I believe it is to close to MDW and would draw away from that city if they went in. Also MSP with the strong NWA presence and the fight that would be fought, why? Maybe Rochester MN would be possible. I think right now WN is more concerned with connecting the dots, adding frequencies before adding new cities to the route map.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
gsoflyer
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Thu Jul 10, 2003 3:31 am

I'd personally say that Greensboro/High Point would be a big pick now. With Continental scaling down everything, there are now 2 or 3 gates opening up.

The area is 1.25 million, bigger than RDU. ~1 hour away from Charlotte (which has very little low fair service) and a descent drive from Asheville/Hickory/Boone in the western part of the state, and it also pulls from Roanoke and Danville, VA now.

Greensboro already pulls passengers from Charlotte, more so than Raleigh. And considering the passenger rail corridor that is being developed, it could devently pipe passengers in here from Charlotte as well on that route.
 
afitch7881
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Thu Jul 10, 2003 7:31 am

I would have to say that BDL, often called Hartford/Springfield, is and always will be "Connecticut's" airport. Traffic at the airport is probably about 70% Connecticut, 20% Mass, and 10% other.
 
lgbguy
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Sun Jul 13, 2003 12:57 pm

HPN was WN first pick before ISP but the airport only would let us have 6 slots a day,no RON slots and at the time they would only let 737-500 fly in as the largest a/c..all the plans for our New York expansion was planned on HPN not ISP..but when talk went south with HPN ISP came in and Gave WN the world so the New York expansion shifted to ISP....Don't count HPN out of the game just yet..there is rumor around WN that HPN has been down to DAL not to long a go and is now willing to let us have 1 ron slot and 12 flights a day with 737-500 & 700..I think you will see WN at HPN in the years to come..befor you start to bash this reply let me say one more word why we will be at HPN...... jetBlue......just think ISP&HPN can put the clamp down on JFK??????think about it....lgbguy?????
 
deltabobo
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Sun Jul 13, 2003 1:04 pm

Southwest had plans on serving two of the three major airports in SC. Either GSP and CAE, CAE and CHS, GSP and CHS, either of those choices.
Dispatchers...saving pilots from themselves and their egos since 1938!
 
DTWNWA
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serv

Sun Jul 13, 2003 1:05 pm

Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (ABE): 30
Richmond (RIC): 80
Milwaukee (MKE): 30
Portland, ME. (PWM): Not sure
Rochester, N.Y. (ROC): 30
Syracuse (SYR): 25
Burlington, Vt. (BTV): 0
Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (GSO): 10
Mobile (MOB): 20
Des Moines (DSM): 70
Witchita (ICT): 70
Ft. Myers (RSW): Not sure
Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ): 40
Minnieapolis/ St. Paul (MSP): 100
Charleston, S.C. (CHS): 80
Memphis (MEM): 80
Knoxville (TYS): 80
Baton Rouge (???): 70
Shreveport (???): 0
Newburg, N.Y. (???): 10
Atlantic City (ACY): 65
White Plains (HPN): 65
Wilmington, DE. (???): 65
Trenton, N.J. (TTN): 0
 
737doctor
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Sun Jul 13, 2003 5:27 pm

Heck, I work there and I'm not even going to pretend to know where we're going next.

I do know however that many of my co-workers and myself would love to see us fly into COS.
Patrick Bateman is my hero.
 
L-188
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Sun Jul 13, 2003 6:00 pm

How about Anchorage Alaska?

They probably could get 10 flights a day out of here, particularly in the summer.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 3:22 am

chances are very high that southwest will move into the northeast usa in a big way.

there are many small low cost carriers in the northeast, but none that have the network potential of southwest. not even close.



Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
TheGov
Posts: 370
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 6:39 am

The people of Memphis have been screaming for WN for years. Personally, I don't see it happening for two reasons:

1. NW is so dominate and there is little gate space available. While the airport authority will tell you that is not the case, I'm suspect of their claim. And if WN did announce MEM, NW would start asking for additional gate space and add flights just to match the traffic. Or, worse yet, NW would begin to pull out of MEM. I suspect that they are just looking for a reason to leave MEM. In the aftermath of 9/11, MEM lost one bank of flights and had the other banks reduced. The bank was recently restored and, as far as I know, its success has not been reported. However, the local politicians are in love with the fact that NW has a hub here and would probably do everything they can to keep NW here including keeping WN out.

2. The people of the Memphis area contribute a lot of traffic to WN at BNA and LIT. IMHO, by opening MEM, WN would begin to lose numbers at the above mentioned airports. Reduced traffic at BNA and LIT might mean reduced service at those airports by WN. MEM is already served in the low fare market by AirTran and America West, so WN would not add much to the mix.

But, as with anything else, only time will tell. Don't count MEM in for the foreseeable future.
Always a pallbearer, never a corpse.
 
flyboy7974
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 6:54 am

my aunt works corporate for swa, and she has always mentioned that gso has been high on the list on the east coast
 
srbmod
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 7:10 am

CHS would be a good location, kinda halfway between Savannah and Myrtle Beach. They'd also draw off of Hilton Head Island (Does anyone even serve HHH anymore? Colgan Air was doing ATL-HHH back when they were a Continental Connection carrier.) and from Columbia as well. I could see CHS-BWI, CHS-BHM, CHS-MCO, CHS-FLL, CHS-TPA, CHS-MSY.

RSW does see LCC service from AirTran, and also has service by Delta, so unless Southwest can be creative about the routes out of RSW, I don't think we'll see them in RSW.

GSO does see LCC service from AirTran, but the station in being served more by AirTran JetConnect than by mainline AirTran flights. GSO-BHM could be a potential route, as some Atlantans are know to drive to BHM just to fly on Southwest. GSO-BWI, GSO-MCO, GSO-FLL, GSO-TPA, GSO-MSY could be some potential routes.

MOB is far enough away from two Southwest stations (BHM and MSY) not to draw too many pax away from those stations. Would draw folks from all across the "Redneck Riveria", Gulfport, Biloxi, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Panama City. MOB-DAL, MOB-FLL, MOB-RDU, MOB-BWI.
 
FLAIRPORT
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 7:11 am

here are some more cities to add to the mix

ATL for 2 reasons (they're the official airline of the NHL... Thrashers and they basicly sorround ATL.) If Delta Connection moves to ops or takes up less gates they can move into C and do 10 flights/day to MCO, RDU, and BNA or BHM.

The others are because they are the official airline of the NHL
Vancouver-]
Calgery-]
Edmonton-]- an NHL airline has to go to canada
Toronto-]
Ottawa-]
Montreal-]
Denver
LGa, EWR
BOS
MSP
PHI
PIT
-----------------------------
My Yea, right cities are:
SFO (They have virtually all of California anyway)
LGB (same)
JFK (for good measure... if you have LGA, EWR, and ISP, might as well throw JFK in the mix as well!  Big grin)
Mexico City.
Fairbanks (and ANC which was mentioned eariler)
CUN
MIA (also for good measure Big grin)
somewhere in Maine?
--------------
there is no "10"rule... 9 flights from Jackson (and they're still #1 in terms of passengers! scary!), 6 from IAH, and they barely cut it with 11 at Ammarilo
NEXT FLIGHT: FLL-ATL-HPN on FL
 
prosa
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 7:51 am

CHS: 0 Small metro area at 550,000 and not much additional population within 100 miles. CAE would be a better choice even though its population is slightly smaller.

Charleston is a tourist destination, unlike Columbia, though I'm not sure if there's enough tourist traffic to support WN's 10-flight minimum. If Charleston were a bit closer to the (drastically underserved) Myrtle Beach tourist area CHS would be a excellent choice.

Newburg, N.Y. (???) - 50 A good NYC market, but what about the NIMBY's?

SWF is the code for Newburgh ... as well as the personals-ads abbreviation for Single White Female  Smokin cool Seriously, though, NIMBY's shouldn't be a problem at SWF, in sharp contrast to HPN. I actually think WN would do well at SWF because there's a big population in the northern suburbs that would find it quite convenient.

Minnieapolis/ St. Paul (MSP) - 10 MSP needs more lowfares, but I don't see WN wanting to get into a slugfest with NW.

What about RST as an alternative?



"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
Flaps
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:02 am

I'd like to add a few things regarding PIT and Southwest.

If the US hub is folded the chances of SW moving in are over 90%. If the hub stays chances are still near 50%. US will never move to STL, they do not have the money to do so. The relocation costs would be astronomical and they supposedly cannot afford to even stay at PIT.

Southwest already operates a number of charters out of PIT and has access to enough gate space to meet their needs. The county and state are actively courting them with incentives. I dont have the official numbers but there are currently a significant number of people driving to CLE from PIT's western suburbs. The PIT market can support at least the following:

BWI 4x-6x daily
MCO 2x daily
FLL 1x or 2x daily
TPA 2X daily
MDW 3x-5x daily
LAS 2X daily (more on weekends)
PHX 2x daily

There is also a market for New England service as well. The above is based on US keeping the hub but downsizing to primarily RJ's. Despite numerous daily flights it is very difficult to get a seat out of PIT to the Southeast and especially Florida without having to connect through CLT in at least one direction. The yields may be poor but the connecting traffic through PIT keeps load factor southbound very high.
 
dsuairptman
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 11:33 am

Hello:

I would like to add a few comments to this forum on places WN should serve.

First I resent the redneck Riviera comment made on my native lands, yes there is plenty of white trash down there, but not everyone fits in this category, including me.

Also does the guy suggesting MOB even relies that this market would be better served by WN through Gulfport/Biloxi International Airport (GPT/KGPT)
for many reasons which I propose below.

- GPT has many attributes to WN's favor including WN requirements of having short taxi distances, little wait time for departure/landing clearance, available gate space, and instant access for pax to I-10, which lays w/in less of a mile of GPT's pax terminal. The Mississippi Gulf Coast also boast a population of WN's required 100,000 w/in the station area.

- As I see it, GPT proximity to MSY is not a major factor deterrent to GPT being able to handle WN. You see WN is MSY largest pax operator and its operations can sometimes go against WN strategy of quick departures; I have noted at times as many as 3 or 4 WN planes waiting for runway clearance. Another factor is gate space at MSY, WN seems to occupy all available gates in its current concourse, it really doesn't make sense to add new gates in other concourses as concoctive pax would have to go through the main terminal and through security again to get to another WN flight. These scenarios bring GPT into the picture.
- GPT not as large as MSY would not require the massive amount of space that the MSY station does. One gate would profile be sufficient for 8-12 daily flights. Smaller flight schedules at GPT also would allow WN use of other gates during un-peak periods and plenty of space for RONs

-Many travelers form the Gulf Coast areas travel to the same destinations, therefore the GPT station would serve a two-fold purpose
1st serving as an alleviator for WN growing congestion
at MSY, and allowing flights more breathing room.
2nd A smaller GPT station could serve as a new market and
at the same time provide a more central, convenient
sub-outlet for WN pax east of the New Orleans metro
area.

- GPT has also had experience handling larger equipment such as A320's, MD-80s, DC-9s, B727,737,and even 757's, giving and advantage in larger narrowbody ops, which counters MOB experience with all props and RJ's and the handful of DL 727 and MD-80s which are eroding away to RJs.

- The area around GPT has a soaring number of hotel rooms to accommodate travelers. Again quick interstate access from GPT provides a range of rooms within an hours drive. Such a central location could provide a quick drive for travelers to the MOB area and LA North Shore and more rural areas North of GPT.

- WN is much more receptive to leisure travelers as well as business traveler's.
The Gulf Coast various vacation destinations are w/ in quick reach of GPT as well as the GPT areas military business customers and MOB private sector business travelers. GPT also has the potential of becoming a port of call for a cruise line in the relative future, thus adding to the demand for low coast
air travel.




GEAUX SAINTS!
 
Eric505
Posts: 565
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 1999 11:18 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 12:03 pm

South Carolina experts: why CHS instead of CAE? Just curious...CAE is in the middle of the state and could draw from the entire state. Is metro Charleston that much bigger than metro Columbia, or metro Greenville/Spartanburg?

Actually Columbia (CAE) has a bigger metro population. I think its around 665,000, with the airport directly in the middle. Southwest Airlines has talked with officials at CAE so there could be some validity to them possibly looking here as well.

[Edited 2003-07-14 05:15:18]
Alcohol is the anesthesia by which we endure the operation of life
 
MSYtristar
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 12:17 pm

I don't see WN serving GPT...just too close to New Orleans. Pensacola would be more liklely in my view. GPT is only a little more than an hour's drive away from MSY...not really that far.

Regarding Southwest's MSY situation, they have 4 more gates at their disposal on their Concourse B (now that Continental moved to D), and are planning to use them eventually. They don't really need a "relief" station so to speak, as they are growing more here. They are planning on getting up to 100 flights/day. They have just expanded their ticket counter to have 16 check-in positions...about the same as Frontier's DEN counter.

Since we are down to only one runway now (until October), it's not uncommon to see a lineup of aircraft during certain times of the day. This problem will be immediately resolved when 1/19 reopens after a six-month "rebuilding" procedure.

GPT could certainly use a few more flights to some key markets, but I wouldn't hold my breath for Southwest to fly there.

Also keep this in mind, the cruise traffic to GPT is no more now that the Conquest moved back to MSY today.


Steve in N.O

 
dsuairptman
Posts: 692
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:45 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 12:38 pm

to Steve in NO:

I'm always curious to here what one has to say about GPT, so I would like to ask you, and any one else, what other markets you fell GPT should have service to?

Thanks in advance for any reply.
GEAUX SAINTS!
 
Mizzou65201
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2000 2:11 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:05 pm

If (and only if) YX goes goodnight, I bet WN comes calling. Wisconsin really is a better fit for the budget-oriented niche of WN than the ritzy niche of YX. Plus, MDW is far enough south that MKE is geographically more appealing for the north-of-ORD Chicago suburbs.

If WN was at ORD, I'd say no way. But MKE and MDW would really bracket the Chicago area quite nicely.

Then again, as a Milwaukeean I'd rather see YX stick around =)
 
MSYtristar
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:08 pm

Regarding GPT.....


For one, I think at least a weekend service year-round to GPT from CVG, for instance, would probably work, with a Comair CRJ. Maybe a daily flight or two during the winter months.

Air Tran could probably add another ATL flight...they only have 2 now.

AA Eagle or United Express nonstop to ORD...weekend flights....they'd probably fill up.

I think the recent upgrade from an ERJ to a 735/733 on the morning Continental flight to IAH was a big boost...would like to see another upgrade...but at the very least its all jet now.

Looks like NWA has all-CRJ service to MEM...they did fly a few DC9's until recently...when did that stop???



Steve in N.O
 
dsuairptman
Posts: 692
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:45 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:19 pm

Dear Steve:

Thanks for your reply.

In regards to NW yanking the DC-9s, it occured in early May 2003. You see NW needs to cut cost and, despite good loads, many markets including GPT, JAN,BTR and other deep south markets lost NW mainline or got smaller regional planes in place of larger regional aircraft. Hopefully this want last too long and permanant resoration of some larger pax flights will occur before years end.

I agree that AT needs to have more ATL links form GPT, in the past they have tried 3x daily to ATL, but came up short on load factor on the additional flight, prehaps the market could support another 717 now, or at least a Air Tran Jet Conncet on the CRJ a time or two a day.

Thanks agian, and feel free to let me know of any other service changes to GPT think would be good.
GEAUX SAINTS!
 
MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:21 pm

Dsuairptman, I see you're from Cleveland,MS...how far is that away from the GPT/MSY areas? What college do you go to up there?


Steve in New Orleans

 
dsuairptman
Posts: 692
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:45 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:34 pm

Dear Steve:

I'm a native of the Mississippi Gulf Coast, Long Beach to be exact, now you know my MSY/GPT background.

Right know I'm going on my senior year at Delta State University in Cleveland, and majoring in none other than Commercial Aviation Management.

Travel time by roads from the GPT/MSY area in general in 5 and a half to 6 hours on average, just over 2 hours form MEM and JAN though

Hope this helps you out  Smile

GEAUX SAINTS!
 
MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:48 pm

Hey Dsu, enjoy your senior year! Is it a nice area up there? Sounds like the closest I've been is Oxford for an Ole Miss/LSU football game.  Smile

Long Beach...driven through there many times over the years...

Gotta love the Gulf coast!


Steve in N.O
 
dsuairptman
Posts: 692
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2003 9:45 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:52 pm

Thanks for the feedback Steve.

All I can say about Cleveland is that its in the middle of the boring MS Delta

got some nice neighborhoods though.

So how is the Big Easy going for you?

GEAUX SAINTS!
 
FlyPNS1
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Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 10:01 pm

Problem with GPT is that yields tend to be quite low. The business to leisure ratio is very poor and much of the traffic is casino driven. In fact, if it wasn't for the casinos, I doubt FL would even serve GPT.

As for other markets, I don't see a lot of expansion for GPT. The only exception would be DL to DFW. DL has already launched weekend service and there's a good chance it will eventually go daily.
 
MSYtristar
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Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 10:36 pm

The Big Easy is working out fine for right now...I really like the place....however, I may leave temporarily within the next few months, most likely to Denver. Thinking about going up there so I can experience working at our hub, and also to get more hours (I work for Frontier). Just have to see how things work out.

Steve in N.O
 
FLAIRPORT
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RE: What Are The Chances That Southwest Would Serve...

Mon Jul 14, 2003 10:53 pm

i CAN SEE GULFPORT IF...
They add Pensacola or a Florida panhandle city.
NEXT FLIGHT: FLL-ATL-HPN on FL