Boeing Nut
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STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 10:45 am

I heard on the news today that the likelyhood of AA keeping STL is very bleak. The mayor of St. Louis was very disapionted with this "forecast".

Sounds like more and more that AA is pulling out. They are supposed to make an announcement in two weeks.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
tekelberry
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 10:59 am

The announcement of "something" will likely come next WED during their 2Q conference call.
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 12:13 pm

Good riddance, my friends at TWA HATE working for AA, so bring on the LCC's and let's see STL become a larger version of MCI: a nice variety of services and decent competition. So we lose service to Sioux Falls and Peoria, big deal.
Next up: STL-OAK-RNO-LAS-ICT-STL
 
Boiler Special
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 12:53 pm

Tell that to the citizens of Sioux Falls, Peoria, and everybody else that depends on STL service.
 
TLHFLA
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 1:04 pm

Yeah I agree with OzarkD9S, it seems like AA pulling it out may not necessarily mean the worst for STL. I think other carries will add more flights to fill the void. AA will probably keep a few flights such as SJU, LAX, LGA, JFK, and BOS in addition to the DFW, ORD, and MIA flights.

AirTran entering the market seems very likely. If US closes the PIT hub, they too could potentially be a player in STL. At the very least, restoration of mainline service could be a good possibility.

There is a possibility that CO could also restore mainline service, especially if AA cans the STL-EWR flights.

I could also see Delta upgrading and adding new service. Maybe a few 757s to ATL. Mainline to CVG. Restoration of service to SLC... There appears to be a good demand for Florida flights to STL, so Song could potentially operate CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO, TPA, FLL to STL flights (AA will probably keep the MIA-STL flights).

I wonder what will remain of the AA/ex-TWA flight to LGW...I wonder if they will keep it going like they did in RDU after they closed that hub. Same question for the STL-HNL flight, it is quite popular from what I understand.

Needless to say, STL is a major city, and most certainly will not be left without decent airline service when AA downsizes.
Bill in ATL
 
propilotjw
Posts: 520
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 1:07 pm

Good Riddance? Your friends might hate working for AA but it is a job! Now your friends may be out of a job. Are thay happy about that? If so, they should have quit after the takeover. Like Boiler said, some people depend on the traffic that is served by AA out of STL. This is a big deal because BIG CUTS at STL mean even more phasing out of the ex-TWA workforce...No good.
 
ouboy79
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 1:20 pm

Most TWAers are gone already...so that part is taken care of already. Of course, who actually thought AA would keep this hub? What part of AirCal and Reno stayed around? Typical AA. Any ideas on what the procedure is as far as rights to jobs opening in other stations? I can think of a couple outstations that are actually hiring, new hires...but they are Eagle.
 
jr
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 2:26 pm

I am by no means a fan of AA, but how soon have people forgotten that the situation prior to 9-11 when AA went ahead with the TWA purchase was much different than now. After all, AA was called a "white knight" to the rescue of an ailing carrier at one point when the whole merger was in the works.

Didn't US mention interest in expanding out from STL should AA downsize?

I wish the people affected by this the best.
I've flown on 9V-SPK.
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:19 pm

it's amazing that stl has sustained a hub as long as it has.

twa was never able to make money there. southwest is even challenged in stl.

a major reduction has been inevidable for years. and with two other huge east/west hubs (ord/dfw), in today's environment it's no surprise they don't need a third.

i "predict" aa will keep substantial service at stl. but the days of 14 daily non-stops to new york and intercontinental service are, at least for now, are too expensive and not sustainable.

Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
747firstclass
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 4:26 pm

BoilerSpecial and OzarkD9S
In posts on other similar topics in recent weeks regarding AA eliminating STL as a hub, I have cited PIA and other cities in the midwest that have more service to STL than to ORD as being ripe candidates for service elimination.
To me it has the potential to cause some real economic devastation to those small communities. PIA is a prime example. For years and years they have relied on STL flights to get them to the "outside" world and beyond.
I would think that if another carrier comes into STL to take advantage of AA leaving etc, places like PIA will be the last to get new service to STL.Could be an economic disaster in the making.
 
ouboy79
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 7:19 pm

US Airways has expressed interest in the hub and RSA will fund any expansion that would boost their investment.
 
AIR757200
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sat Jul 12, 2003 10:30 pm


Good riddance, my friends at TWA HATE working for AA,

Maybe this is why I've had top-tier flyers and passengers telling me they don't like flying thru STL because of that attitude showing on some workers.

One comment I got often was when they asked me if I was the "real thing" or "TWA". I didn't think it was appropriate to ask, esp. when my coworkers next to me were TWA employees (and great to work with too, I love them!).

 
AA717driver
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 1:07 am

Jetdeltamsy--I think you are oversimplifying TWA's financial problems by blaming the STL hub.

TWA couldn't make money in the post-Icahn era(we all know why they didn't make money during his reign!) because it was saddled with debt and lousy credit rating due to the '92 bankruptcy. Icahn sucked over $1Billion out of TWA in 6 years. He also left it with $1B in debt. Carl said TWA was the worst investment he ever made. Save it Carl, the numbers tell the story.

Anyway, TWA operation after 1996 was extremely efficient and would have been profitable absent one factor--Carl Icahn, again. Because of the management debacle of the summer of '96(Flight 800 having very little to do with the near collapse of the company that summer) TWA had to go back to Carl (again because of the lousy credit rating--are you listening U and UA?) to borrow money.

Carl, taking a cue from the Mafia, loaned us money but demanded tickets to sell in return. This was 1996. Before the widespread use of the internet in any capacity, let alone the travel industry. In fact, TWA did not foresee Carl selling--excuse me, dumping, tickets on the market via his own travel agency. Not in their wildest dreams did they foresee Carl selling on the internet.

So, Carl had an UNLIMITED NUMBER of TWA tickets to sell--AT 55% OF FACE VALUE. That means TWA got 55% of the "list" price for a ticket from JFK-LAX and Carl got to charge whatever he wanted and keep the difference. While the other airlines were keeping 100% of even their most discounted fares, TWA(having to match the other competitors) was getting 55%.

Additionally, while Carl was bleeding TWA, he was driving the price down for the competition. AA buying TWA solved two problems. It gave relief to ORD and DFW(now it seems ridiculous, but at the time...) AND they eliminated a major drain on yield.

STL was not inherently unprofitable. AA may be able to make money there, but they don't need to operate a full hub at this time. I contend they will continue to have a large presence there(if only RJ's) simply to keep the LCC's out.TC
FL450, M.85
 
atcboy73
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 1:21 am

Well said Mr 717driver.
 
thomacf
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 3:10 am

I think this is just the beginning of all the majors cutting back on their hub structures. HP leaving CMH and AA probably leaving STL. It's no secret US will leave PIT in the near future. The CO hub in CLE is on the rocks and their has been a significant decrease of mainline DL flights out of CVG over the past few years. The only one I am not really sure about is the NW hub in MEM.
 
Mizzou65201
Posts: 192
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 7:53 am

Hm, any ideas where Trans States might go if AA does a major scale down of STL?

I'm in COU, which has never been a very successful outstation (most people choose the 2 hr drive to MCI over a 30 min J41 flight to STL) but there are a handful of Missouri towns where the only service is on the "Waterski" to STL.
 
MAH4546
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 8:39 am

Hm, any ideas where Trans States might go if AA does a major scale down of STL?

They will be flying 25 RJs for United Airlines out of Dulles and O'Hare at the end of this year.
a.
 
luv2fly
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 9:34 am

IMHO - I think what you are seeing with ALL the hubs is that airlines are right sizing the operations. This will most likely go on for a while until after 1Q 2004 IMHO! I see PIT being way down sized by US as well as STL and AA, tho I do not see AA totally leaving STL only to give it up to US! Is see MEM being more RJ's like DL has done at DFW, and CLE to remain status quo for a while, it is already more RJ's than mainline and I see that trend continuing for a while.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
upsmd11
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 9:44 am

It will be interesting to see what happens to AA service at SDF if STL closes. Before AA bought TW we only had 2-3 F100 flights on AA to DFW. Since the purchase we now have 3 F100 flights to DFW plus an ERJ, 4 M80 flights to STL and 4 ERJ flights to ORD.

I love having mainline service here and the connections out west are great through STL. TW had some ERJ's on the SDF - STL run and have upgraded to all M80. Does anybody know if that's because of load factors or availability of aircraft?

I hope we can at least maintain some mainline service to DFW or maybe ORD. Maybe upgrade SDF - DFW to some 738 service...

Wishful thinking?

John
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24557
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Sun Jul 13, 2003 10:32 am

Maybe upgrade SDF - DFW to some 738 service...

Highly unlikely. Not because of demand, but because all the 738s are based in Miami and Chicago. In fact, it was not until about a year ago that DFW started seeing 738s on a regular basis.

However, AEagle has MIA-SDF on the drawing board. They are opening RJ gates at MIA this November. CMH and PIT are first (boths started), and IND and one more city should be online by year's end. SDF is one of the possibilities.
a.
 
dsuairptman
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RE: STL As A Hub Becoming Very Bleak

Mon Jul 14, 2003 1:06 pm

I don't know alot the AA situation at Lambart, except it, in my opinion, is not geographically fitting with DFW and ORD. Rjs will dominate it to previous AA non-hub markets and large markets like LGA and LAX. But if in the future O'hare runs into slot problems, AA will fall back to STL because of its location to ORD and its availablility. AA will not totally leave hub status there because the risk losing space to LCC and other larger competitors.

PIT is in for drastic reduction by US; obuvisouly they couldn't work out their financial differinces, so look for PIT to be reduced to RJ flights to large North East and Mid West stations and prehaps a few mid-Atlantic high yeild routes.

United at IAD will lose ground temporarily to financial woes and the time it will take Air Wisconsin, Mesa and other United regionals to take over from ACA.

NW will never leave MEM, they would abandone all their Southern regional routes and costumers who have remained loyal to NW and their forerunners Repulic and Southern for over 2 decades. Right now financial constraints requrie thining of seats to RJ form MEM, but mainline flights will return, though there may not be as many.

RJs have saved DL hub status at DFW, nuff said about that.
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