exitrowaisle
Posts: 239
Joined: Sat May 06, 2000 2:32 am

Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:40 am

I was wondering what the airline industry might be like today if the events of 9/11 never took place. For instance:

- The major airlines had not planned on retiring their 727s as fast as they did. Would we still be seeing AA, DL, NW, and UA 727-200s at airports?

- Meal service was finally starting to improve. Airlines were serving more substantial meals on flights that now have only pretzels. Would we have seen continued improvements in inflight service?

- Would any airlines that folded have made it, such as National Airlines (Las Vegas), Vanguard, Legend? Would anyone else have tried to merge?

Your thoughts?



 
tekelberry
Posts: 1309
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 6:37 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:43 am

It's not like the airline industry was doing so great even before 9/11 happened.
 
BR715-A1-30
Posts: 6525
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 9:30 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:51 am

Legend shut down before 9/11/01.
Puhdiddle
 
wgw2707
Posts: 1110
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:37 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 11:01 am

Here is what I think would have happened:

Now, prior to 9/11 there were a series of sweeping media-attacks on airlines, such as a somewhat slanderous special feature on MSNBC and a series of anti-airline scenes in the popular 2000 comedy "Meet The Parents." The airlines would probably have had to come up with improved luggage handling etc.

TWA had already been purchased by AA and I strongly doubt that AA would have allowed them to continue as a seperate entity in a non9/11 world.

United probably would have suffered severe problems as the economy was in a decline and United had gradually been developing some performance difficulties.

So basically, we would probably see the same airlines we have today, but they would be larger, healthier, and perhaps offer marginally better service. Also, wait times at the airports would be substantially less. We can hope that 10 years from now we will actually see such a scenario.

-WGW
 
bkkair
Posts: 384
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2001 9:10 pm

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 11:50 am

Great topic!

Before 9/11
- the airlines were in a mad rush to have more frequencies than the competition on every route. Flights every 30 minutes, no problem!
- delays were horrendous. Who can forget sitting on a plane for hours waiting to takeoff from La Guardia?
- load factors were going down

the whole North American air traffic system was headed for meltdown with the airlines adding new flights and aircraft like there was no tomorrow

Either way, the airlines were headed for financial disaster. At least pre-9/11 there were another 100,000 airline employees working.
 
ssides
Posts: 3248
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2001 12:57 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:11 pm

I think things would have gotten about as bad as they were, but maybe not as quickly. Things were declining along with the economy; 9/11 just made the process faster and a bit more expensive. Remember, US Airways was in big trouble before 9/11, as was United. I do think some bottom lines, maybe at AA, CO and DL, would be better because the added costs of security really hit these guys hard. Ironically, I think 9/11 prevented the decline of some airlines, because it gave them a better argument for government help. Without 9/11, I think the public would have been more willing to let an airline or two die out.
"Lose" is not spelled with two o's!!!!
 
jhooper
Posts: 5560
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2001 8:27 pm

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Thu Aug 14, 2003 3:00 pm

There are now fewer delays after 9/11 since the ATC system isn't as overloaded anymore. Many people are scared from flying for security reasons. When the bookings come back to pre-9/11 levels we'll have to have in place technology improvements so we don't return back to gridlock
Last year 1,944 New Yorkers saw something and said something.
 
GDB
Posts: 12653
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:37 am

From my little corner of the world, all 7, rather than 5 BA Concorde's would have returned to service, as planned prior to Sept 11th, (the mod kits for OAA and OAB were ordered in early 2001).
A double daily LHR-JFK and back would have restarted from April 2002, a charter programme from October 2002, though not as extensive as before 2000.
We'd probably have flown until 2006/7, maybe to 2009.
 
MD80Nut
Posts: 972
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 6:43 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:11 am

While the airline industry was having some problems before 911, there's no doubt in my mind it would be in a far better position if the attacks had not happened. The dramatic drop in people willing to fly would not have happened. The vastly increased security costs would not have happened. While low cost carriers would have remained a serious thorn on their side, 911 cost them billions of dollars just from the days the entire US system was shut down. Add to that the severe drop in business travel and dramatic rise in security costs that followed and it doesn't take a business degree to see that the attacks are the single greatest cause of the industry's problems today.

It's a no-brainer, folks.

Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
747400sp
Posts: 3850
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 7:27 pm

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:29 am

I think the Boeing sonic cruiser would have been order by AA CO JAL and UA because there would not have been a big lose of passengers. People could go into airport the just to look at planes. UA would not had went chapter 11 it would have been a lot better.
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:47 am

Had 9-11 not happened you would have seen the airlines delay retiring the older plans, going after market share with out thought of how it would have effected the bottom line, and a slight treatment of flyers for the better. Though the goose that laid the golden egg would have caught up with the industry as a whole and it would be like it is now.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
clipperno1
Posts: 641
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 1999 12:47 am

RE: Airline Industry If 9/11 Had Never Happened

Fri Aug 15, 2003 2:48 am

I consider the government help that was paid out as a compensation for the days when there was a strict/or limited No-Fly-Rule which costs I guess were unbelievable...No Revenue, but wages,leasing-fees,maintance etc. to be paid.
09/11 was the most severe hit ever to this industry and it really doesn't need a degree at business, to say, that without 09/11 since would look fairly brighter by now. The industry was in a down-swing before 09/11, but there were also signs of a slight improvement, under the impression of consolidations moving on, just before those bastards downed the WTC. After that we hit 'rock bottom'.
"I really don't know one plane from the other. To me they are just marginal costs with wings."� Alfred Kahn, 1977