Sjoerd
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Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:09 am

What's Airbus saying about the B7E7, is it taken seriously ? Will there be an answer to it, a new A300 type ? I think with little investment and using the technology of the A345/346/380 Airbus is very well capable of competing with Boeing. As far as the A330 isn't a competitor...
Maybe announcing development of an aircraft like the 7E7 is admitting Boeing is going in the right direction ? Therefore they could await a decision until more is known about the B7E7.
Airbus must have something up it's sleeve !

[Edited 2003-08-23 01:13:27]
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StarAC17
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:22 am

I think Airbus is really focused on the A380 right now to care that much about competing with the 7E7 and I don't think it would be all that difficult for them to compete with the 7E7. All I think they would have to do is release the A332/A333 in an ER version and put more efficient engines on it so it can compete with the 7E7's expected range as it can already compete in the passenger expectation of the 7E7
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Qb001
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:39 am

So far, Airbus' answer, right or wrong, is to say that most of the 7E7 efficiency, compared to existing products such as the 767, will come from its engines. Therefore, when these new engines become available, they'll stick them under the 330/340 wings and they'll have a competing product, only cheaper.

Is it true or appropriate? Time will tell...

[Edited 2003-08-23 01:40:11]
Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
 
L.1011
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:42 am

Well thats all fine and dandy for Airbus, until Boeing engine manufacturer(s) sign(s) a exclusivity contract and patent the technology. Then, Airbus is screwed.
 
flybynight
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:44 am

For Boeing the timing is good since Airbus is pretty much using its capital to develop the A380. I believe Airbus has stated they will develop a new widebody jet towards the end of this decade to replace the A330/A340 (and I suppose the A300/310) if necessary. This assume the 7E7 is taking the majority of marketshare.
There are going to be a lot of 767's and early 330/340's that need replacement over the next 5-20 years. Could be an interesting battle.
I hope the 7E7 is a departure from current designs; something that will really grab the flying public's attention.
Heia Norge!
 
MITaero
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:46 am

>All I think they would have to do is release the A332/A333 in an ER version and put more efficient engines on it so it can compete with the 7E7's expected range as it can already compete in the passenger expectation of the 7E7

You guys seriously think that the engines are the only new development on the 7E7? Airbus can compete in time, but it won't be as easy as you think - Boeing has poured a lot of money into R&D for the E7.
 
BR715-A1-30
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:53 am

Airbus could re-release the A332 A333, but it is not the BRAND NEW Technology being used in the 7E7. 7E7 is BRAND NEW, A332ER would be a old dog with new tricks (when compared to the 7E7)
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 9:12 am

L.1011, surely the 'exclusivity' part of the deal only means that the engine manufacturer is the sole supplier for the 7E7, not that they can't sell the engine to another aircraft maker. I can't see any engine manufacturer agreeing to cut their potential sales market by 50%!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
Korg747
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 9:30 am

Am I the only one in here that thinks airbus needs to really comeup with A320-300?
Please excuse my English!
 
B2707SST
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sat Aug 23, 2003 9:42 am

Boeing has stated that the 7E7 will probably have only one, possibly two, but certainly not three engine options, so competition between GE, PW, and RR will be intense. Boeing would be foolish not to require exclusivity as a requirement for 7E7 participation and make life that much harder for Airbus. Whoever wins the 7E7 deal will gain access to a potentially huge market, so I doubt they will be too upset about signing a Boeing-only contract, especially if it looks like the A330 will be the sales underdog going forward.

My money is on General Electric, given that only GE engines are available on all of Boeing's long-term aircraft (737NG, 747, 777) and that Boeing has developed an increasingly close relationship with GE. Undoubtedly, the losers will apply any new technology developments to other programs, including the A330. It will certainly be an interesting competition.

--B2707SST
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Sjoerd
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 4:52 am

What would an A320-300 look like ?
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 6:58 am

Boeing has stated that the 7E7 will probably have only one, possibly two, but certainly not three engine options, so competition between GE, PW, and RR will be intense.

While there's little doubt that the true competition would be between GE and RR.... all three may yet win a piece of the pie:

GE and PW may once again participate (e.g., GP7000)
or, RR and PW may do so too (e.g., V2500)
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Sjoerd
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:44 am

http://www.ainonline.com/Publications/paris/paris_03/pd1airbuspg42.html

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/127110_leahy182.html

If you let out the marketing talk in these articles I believe it comes down to this:
Airbus says it can build an A330-500 (200-250 seats market, shorter version of the A330 with more range and direct competitor to the B7E7) for $200 million against $8 billion as costs to develop the B7E7. Boeing has to get that money back when it sells the aircraft, inevitably the B7E7 will be a lot more expensive than the A330-500ER. This will cool down interest from airlines.
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Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:45 am

There is no doubt in my mind that Airbus would be able to produce a 7e7 type aircraft from a technology point of view, trouble is, they have bet the business on the 380, and will not be able to come up with the resources, in time for the expected 767/A300/310 replacement market.

Paradoxically, the 380 as I have said many times,and many others have also, is the greatest threat to Airbus dominance. There is now a window of opportunity for Boeing to introduce new designs, and Airbus will not be able to respond without some pretty big Govt aid.

Even worse, money is now starting to flow for the A400 and this is what will sustantially maintain the Cash flow surplus Airbus is using to fund the A380. This will lead to another funding crisis in the future, even after A380 development has started to fall.

What all this means is no Airbus 7e7 competitior, without substantial Govt assistance.

Ruscoe
 
Tom_EDDF
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:03 am

> Airbus could re-release the A332 A333, but it is not the BRAND NEW Technology being used in the 7E7. 7E7 is BRAND NEW, A332ER would be a old dog with new tricks (when compared to the 7E7)

So is the 737 NG, and it's still doing quite well against the A320, considering that it is a 30 years old design.

Boeing itself has stated that the majority of savings will be generated through the use of new engines. So Airbus just took this argument. We will see how it works.

> Well thats all fine and dandy for Airbus, until Boeing engine manufacturer(s) sign(s) a exclusivity contract and patent the technology. Then, Airbus is screwed.

I would doubt that any engine supplier will be stupid enough to agree with such a nasty deal. Do all the development work, invest tons of money, and after all, patent the technology to your customer?

That will never happen, as someone said above, they will limit their combined sales potential to roughly 50%, max. 60% of the market. For example, if GE and RR would supply engines for the 7E7 based on such a contract, with the GE for some reasons doing better and grabbing 75% of 7E7 sales, RR would be limited to ~17% of the total market size.

Customer structure for the whatever Airbus "A350" could be completely different from the 7E7 in that scenario, with a strong RR preference. Stupid not to grab this market.

Patenting won't work anyway, there are always at least two paths to reach your goal. If GE patents the technology, RR will bring a similar product with a fan spinning in the opposite direction. Simple example: Hewlett-Packard has thousands of patents on inkjet and cartridge technology, but won't you say that Epson and Canon offer nice printers as well????

And, by the way, keep competition alive!
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:12 am

The most expensive part of A380 development has not started yet. Completing the detail design, the tooling, initial assembly, fatigue testing, systems integration, flight testing, correcting problems, obtaining performance guarantees, meeting noise targets, and so on, and so on. It surprised me also when it was first pointed out to me, that it is the second half, not the first half of development which is the most expensive.

Ruscoe
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 9:44 am

My guess is that if Airbus is to build a 7E7 competitor, it will essentially build something that has the fuselage length of the A300B4 (e.g., shorter than the A330-200) but will sport an all-new, high-efficiency wing and new engines, too.

They better do it soon before LH places a potentially large 30-40 plane order for the 7E7.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 9:52 am

The great thing about all the competition between the manufacturers is that, whichever engine manufacturer doesn't win will rush straight to Airbus and continue developing an engine that WILL work for an enhanced A330.

What that will do is not beat the 7E7, but will buy Airbus time to compete fully, while also continuing to win orders especially at large A330 operators or operators that need to replace existing frames before they can get 7E7 delivery slots.

The 7E7 is a long way away, but when it hits it WILL make a big splash. Airbus has a lot of work to do... hope the A380 focus doesn't distract them.

N
 
jmacias34
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 9:58 am

If there is a competition for equiping the 7E7 who ever is left out in the cold will sell to Airbus.
 
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solnabo
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 9:34 pm

My guess is that Airbus called its new competitor to Boeing 7E7:
A330-100???
*cuz A334M is the military refueling-model, right?*
 Big thumbs up
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sabenapilot
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 10:57 pm

Airbus continuously says that in order to maintain their position as the market leader (words from Airbus before I get attacked on that) they have put in place a corporate structure allowing them -as the only manufacturer in the world- to run 2 fully new and 2 development programs all at the same time.

Sounded very ambitious at first, but we must admit Airbus is doing even better right now: with the A380 and the A400 (both new from scratch) and the A318 together with the A340-500/-600, Airbus is currently even pulling a 2+3 (ok, 2+2,5) on Boeing.

By mid 2006 the A380 design and certification will be terminated, and Airbus already hinted more than once they could/would use their freed resources to focus on a (most likely fully new) replacement product for the A300/A310 which is exactly the B7E7 segment....
Besides, at the end of this year both A318 and A340-500/-600 project come to a successful conclusion, so from next year on Airbus can and most certainly will look back at the other models too.... the A330 being of course the most likely candidate....

Seems a lot of knowledge, time and resources will be available in due time to give Boeing and its 7e7 a good run for its money....
 
Vimanav
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 11:11 pm

An new version of the A330 is not the answer for the B7E7 in my opinion. We have traditionally seen especially in the 70s/80s/90s that a new aircraft design does potentially better than a spruced up competitor no matter how successful the latter design has been.

In light of the fact that Airbus is concentrating (correctly) all their resources on the A380 programme, I doubt if they would have the funds to come up with an entirely new design to counter the B7E7 which will have a clear head start over any thing that Airbus could logically come up with.

rgds//Vimanav
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dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Sun Aug 24, 2003 11:16 pm

Tom_eddf:



> Airbus could re-release the A332 A333, but it is not the BRAND NEW Technology being used in the 7E7. 7E7 is BRAND NEW, A332ER would be a old dog with new tricks (when compared to the 7E7)


So is the 737 NG, and it's still doing quite well against the A320, considering that it is a 30 years old design.


Saying the 737NG is a 30-year-old design is misleading. The 737NG has a new wing which is the most critical part that determines how efficient an aircraft is.


Boeing itself has stated that the majority of savings will be generated through the use of new engines.


No. Boeing said slightly less than 50% of the savings are from the new engines.

 
Bogi
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 1:23 am

Just a question the A380 is alrady in production Major Parts like the Wingbox parts of the Fulsage and even the Wing are IN production or even Ready, so the Desing of the A380 is firm or?

So the Airbus design Crew is free for a new Program or?? Will the A400 develop from this team or a other extra Millitary Team?
 
varig md-11
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 6:16 am

Dynkrisolo
please be serious
"Saying the 737NG is a 30-year-old design is misleading. The 737NG has a new wing which is the most critical part that determines how efficient an aircraft is."
you really think wing efficiency is what matters most when it comes to a short hopper like the 737?!?
it's not because of a wing change you can say you have a brand new plane...otherwise you would have the 737 NNG after they added the winglets Big grin
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usair330
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 6:48 am

I doubt Airbus can just improve the A330 to compete with the 7E7. Remember Boeing is using new material for the fuselage, the nose is pretty aerodynamic and the wing and tail are Unique. Maybe Airbus can come out with a better A330 but not one that will be able to compete with the 7E7.

Just my opinion.
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:26 am

Varig md-11:

Obviously you don't have a clue of aircraft design. How capable and how well a plane can perfrom are highly dependent on the wing design. Things like winglet will enhance performance under the right conditions, but it does not significantly change the basic characteristics of the airplane. Without the new wing, the 737NG would not be fly as fast, as high, as far. Designing a wing is the single most expensive item during an aircraft development. Having the same tube does not mean it's still the same old design. Would you say the 330 is just a 35-year-old design based on the original 300? I'm sure you wouldn't. Just because Boeing didn't put a FBW system on the 737NG doesn't mean the 737NG is still the same old design came out more than three decades ago. The 737NG family now has larger members carrying far more passengers, flying far longer, faster, and higher than the original 737. Without the new wing, none of this could be achieved.
 
Sjoerd
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:33 am

Nothing about the B7E7 is certain yet, they're still developping it ! You can't tell yet what the wing, nose, engines,... will look like. All we have is some digitally designed pictures and promises from Boeing, the same you had with the Sonic Cruiser and the 747stretched, ways to distract airlines from buying Airbus, at least so far.
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
delta-flyer
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:24 am

.....All we have is some digitally designed pictures and promises from Boeing.....

That may be all you have; I assure you, Boeing has worked with a number of interested Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers for two years and has completed the definition of most of the systems. Boeing is now selecting supplier/partners to start on the detail design.

The engines are far from being the only things different. The entire systems architecture is different, which is pushing the new engine design. Slapping these new engines on an A330 will not do the trick.

Are you guys so naive as to think that what Boeing is working on for years Airbus can do in their spare time? Get real!

Pete
"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:39 am

so naive as to think that what Boeing is working on for years Airbus can do in their spare time? Get real!

If this aircraft does meet some of the specifications that Boeing is promising... then I believe there's a lot of truth to the above statement.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
Sjoerd
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 10:13 am

.....All we have is some digitally designed pictures and promises from Boeing...

You'll have to admit that Boeing has lost credibility by launching programs like the Sonic Cruiser and then dropping them again. I also hope they can go through with it is time and that the B7E7 is a great aircraft, but let's wait and see.

so naive as to think that what Boeing is working on for years Airbus can do in their spare time? Get real!

Both Airbus and Boeing have been working on new technologies the past years and both have used them in different ways. Boeing will put most of it's research in the 7E7, Airbus could do exactly the same thing and use it's research for 200-250 seater ! For now Airbus is focusing on the A380 for some time but it can come up with a new plane in the coming years.
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
Flaps
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 10:38 am

Airbus got to their current market position largely on a mistake/miscalculation on the part of Boeing. While Airbus was developing the A320 Boeing was focused on ducted fan engines for an entirely new 150 seat design. When the ducted fan engine technology did not pan out as hoped, Boeing dumped the idea of an entirely new 150 seater and took the cheap way out in developing the 737-400. You have to remember, Airbus was a bit player in the market at the time with Boeing and MDD dominating every aspect of the market. They underestimated Airbus' ability to produced a truly unique, effective and advanced aircraft in the A320.

The A320 was the right aircraft at the right time and Airbus did a pretty darn fine job designing and developing this line. Their timing was great and the A320's success paved the way for all subsequent designs. With the exception of the A332 they really havent done all that much to capitalize on the A320's success. The early A340's are dogs and since the advent of the 777 neither the A333 or A340 have achieved much sales success. The A345 and A346 are substantially improved products but they arent holding up well against the 777.

Airbus has bet the company on the A380. It is an enormously expensive development project and to date at least the market has been developing more along the lines of Boeing's forcast than Airbus'. We are still seeing a lot of fragmentation with more direct services beteen city pairs which demand smaller and more efficient aircraft. There is a market for the A380 but it is looking like more and more of a niche player as time goes on. Airbus is vulnerable right now with huge amounts of capital tied into the A380 which effectively prevents them from developing a new line to compete against the 7E7. It would appear that Boeing has learned from its past mistakes and waited until Airbus was at it maximum exposure on the A380 to hit them square in the weakest part of their product line with an entirely new design. The fact that this occurs as just about every model in this vast segment is entering its replacement cycle just adds to the pressure.

With the giveaway pricing on the launch orders for the A380, Airbus is going to have a hell of a time coming up with the cash flow to develop a line to compete with the 7E7. Even the A320 line has hit maturity and is holding its own primarily through aggressive discounting. The A380 has no chance whatsoever of becoming the cash cow to Airbus that the 747 was to Boeing. I think that Boeing's patience and perseverance may just have allowed them to put a very strategically placed arrow into Airbus' soft, exposed underbelly.

Time of course will tell. I doubt that the EU would allow Airbus to fail but in the same vein I also doubt that the US would allow Boeing to go down either. If what I have stated turns out to be true and the US Govt decides to change policy and play by the same rules as the EU has with Airbus than this is going to be terrific fun to watch.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 11:08 am

The A345 and A346 are substantially improved products but they arent holding up well against the 777.

This is a nonfact. The A345 has outsold the 772LR and the 346 is still a tidge ahead of the 773ER.

N
 
Flaps
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 11:22 am

The 777LR and 773ER arent even in service yet and the 773ER is still in flight test. Given the three year lead the A345 and A346 had in design approval and marketing I would hardly find your staements something to brag about.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 11:28 am

Perhaps not something to brag about, but you certainly cannot support the statement that they aren't holding up well against the 777. They are.

N
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:03 pm

Well, it all depends on your point of reference. Gigneil is looking at the whole program's sales records. Flaps is probably looking at the orders since the 772LR/3ER launch.
 
Areopagus
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 1:09 pm

You'll have to admit that Boeing has lost credibility by launching programs like the Sonic Cruiser and then dropping them again.

The Sonic Cruiser program was never launched. 7E7 is not launched yet, either.
 
MITaero
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 1:19 pm

Exactly. And it takes guts to put a new idea for a product out to the customers in order to gauge reaction.
 
delta-flyer
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 1:34 pm

The Sonic cruiser and 7E7 were two variants (of 3) of the NAPD - New Airplane Program Development. Remember Yellowstone, Glacier, etc.? I've been involved in the program from the start - two or three years ago. One major thrust of the program has been defining new technologies for the systems architecture, which has been progressing in parallel to, and more or less independently of the marketing effort.

I'd say Boeing is right on track.

Pete
"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"
 
kevs
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 2:41 pm

"The Sonic Cruiser program was never launched. 7E7 is not launched yet, either." <--- yes... this is true!

It is also true that we don't know whether the debut of A380 double decker will be as scheduled in 2006. This is the first time for airbus to built such a big, double deck aircraft. Although it is now under production but unless
it got a JAA certification, it can't start taking rev. pax.

Boeing put their bet on this 7E7 programme, while Airbus put theirs on A380.
However, 7E7 and A380 are serving two entirely different market segments.

A380 is huge, but its market can be a niche if airport facilities are not catching up to stardard to accommodate this huge thing, and the demand of
seats on heavy route, will airlines and pax prefer frequency rather than
high capacity?

7E7, a 200-250 seater can be a replacement for old 757/767/A310/A330,
or start a new 200-250 seats market by linking up city pairs with it's range.

So here is my question, why people has to compare 7E7, A380, which are
two different airliners designed to serve two entirely different markets, rather
than comparing the companies, boeing and airbus, which are both enagaged
in commerical and miltary programmes?

[Edited 2003-08-25 07:56:55]
 
cloudy
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 2:43 pm

My guess is that Airbus's alleged capability to do 2 clean sheet designs at once is kind of like the Pentagon's alleged ability to fight two Desert-Storm sized wars at once. It looks possible on paper but reality is a bit different. Yes they are doing the A400M and the A380. Yet a military project is financed completely differently than a civil project. And even a subsidized civil project is a lot more risky and you spend more in interest expense. Like Boieng did with the 777, I'm sure Airbus can do some derivatives and the A380 at the same time. But I doubt they could do two clean-sheet civil designs at the same time, unless they were closely related as in the A330/A340 or 757/767.
 
rj777
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 2:53 pm

Sounds like the 7E7 will be in a class by itself!
 
Hamlet69
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RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Mon Aug 25, 2003 4:10 pm

Just some thoughts:

"Well thats all fine and dandy for Airbus, until Boeing engine manufacturer(s) sign(s) a exclusivity contract and patent the technology."


As others went on to point out, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Boeing to get the engine manufacturers to agree to exculsively provide Boeing with 7E7 developed engines. That being said, it won't be as easy as most of you think to apply these engines to other projects. Boeing wants the 7E7 to be the first entirely electric aircraft. In turn, this means that the engines will be a completely bleedless design. Not a good prospect for an 'A330NG' application, unless Airbus wants to completely redo the aircraft's systems. This leads to point two. . .


"Boeing itself has stated that the majority of savings will be generated through the use of new engines."

Absolutely wrong. Flight International stated that nearly 80% of the 7E7's effeciency gains would be from the engines. Boeing has publically refuted that, saying only 25-40% would come via the engine improvements. It's about time this rumor from FI was thrown in the same trash barrel as most other rumors. If we consider that adapting these new engines to a modern design, whether A330 or even Boeing's own 747Adv., there would be a natural effeciency loss, we must wonder whether it would be cost-beneficial for Airbus to even consider an A330NG.


"Airbus says it can build an A330-500 (200-250 seats market, shorter version of the A330 with more range and direct competitor to the B7E7) for $200 million against $8 billion as costs to develop the B7E7. Boeing has to get that money back when it sells the aircraft, inevitably the B7E7 will be a lot more expensive than the A330-500ER. This will cool down interest from airlines."

Just as it cooled down interest in the A380 vs. the 747-X? Afterall, we are talking about the same argument here, are we not? Can a decades-old, modified design compete with a clean-sheet one? To a point, it can. Just look at the 737NG vs. A320. Those two aircraft are so damn similar in performance that there is little difference. But larger/longer-range aircraft are different. And Boeing is proposing a comparatively much further step beyond with the 7E7 vs. 767/A300/A310/A330 than Airbus is with the A380 vs. 747-400.


"it's not because of a wing change you can say you have a brand new plane"

Really, then what is? The wing has been, and for the foreseeable future, will be the core element in any aircraft design. Rewinging an aircraft is a very time-consuming, and expensive proposition. One only needs to look at the A330/340 design to see this. When Airbus went to the drawing board to come up with a new design, they created an all-new wing. But when it came time to design the fuselage, they used a modernized, stretched version of the then-20-year-old A300. What does that tell you? In a similar vein, Boeing has changed and modernized the wing on the 747 so far that, while visually similar to the Classics, the -400 wing is vastly different from its predecessors, which is the reason is has a different mission profile. The examples of wing design are endless.



The A330 will still certainly be a competitor. However, if Boeing can deliver on the preliminary specs of the 7E7 I've seen, then it will take a lot more than a re-engined A330 for Airbus to maintain even the same level of competition that Boeing currently maintains in the A330 vs. 767 battle. And that's not saying too much.

Regards,

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
Tom_EDDF
Posts: 423
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 8:47 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 6:43 am

Flaps:

"Even the A320 line has hit maturity and is holding its own primarily through aggressive discounting."

I don't think so. The developments costs for the A320 have been returned through the programs a long time ago, so it now really is their big cash cow, as is the slow selling A300 series. Once you hit your break even point, you're going to start making big money. Even if you give some discounts here and there, you still have a healthy margin. Especially if your competitor does not offer a superior product. Partly agree with you on the A380 comment - it will take decades to make money with it.

"Airbus got to their current market position largely on a mistake/miscalculation on the part of Boeing."

Unlikely, and very arrogant. So, Airbus should be thankful to Boeing for their generousity? I would say Airbus has driven R&D and innovation during the last two decades, that's the point here. And Boeing was in sleep mode for a very long time.
 
dynkrisolo
Posts: 1823
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2001 12:12 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:21 pm

Tom_eddf:

Let's get some facts straight. Airbus never did breakeven on the A300 program. With so few B2 and B4 built, the original A300 program should have been a complete writeoff, cf. the L-1011. But Airbus continued investing in the development of the A310-200/300 and the -600/600R. Although the sales of the A300/310 program as a whole had a respectable total, the better selling models and the majority of the orders came too late to help defray the original development costs and the interest accrued. Also, the current production rate of the A300 at half an aircraft per month is too low to be efficient. So, there is no way the A300 can be a "cash cow" for Airbus.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:12 pm

Very passionate and lively debates going on - but at this point all hypothetical, of course.

Realisticaly, Airbus is under no pressure to begin formulating any answer to the 7E7 until the Boeing Board of Directors actually give the green light to offer a 7E7 to the airlines. And that could take a while the Board ponders some of the issues listed below, among many others:

The biggest risk is financial. First of all, the airlines. Will there be enough airlines that will have a healthy enough balance sheet to purchase enough 7E7's to make it a financially a viable program.

What will be the regulatory environment - i.e. International Open Skies? If there are no open skies then the 7E7's target market (long, thin city-pairs) will be restricted.

Another risk is technological. Which of the new technologies that are proposed for the 7E7 will really be economically viable.

What will be the price of oil? The price will have a significant direct impact on the attractiveness of the 7E7.

And, last but not least, what will be the hit on the share price by launching the 7E7.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Tom_EDDF
Posts: 423
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 8:47 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:02 pm

Dynkrisolo, where did you take your facts from? The A300 is manufactured on the same line as the A330/340, and it is efficient.
 
dynkrisolo
Posts: 1823
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2001 12:12 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 8:18 pm

Tom_eddf:

So, are you telling me now the 330/340 is a 30-year-old design?  Big grin Have some common sense please. Other than the fuselage cross section, the 300 shares little commonality with the 330/340. Different wings, different systems.
 
dynkrisolo
Posts: 1823
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2001 12:12 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 8:29 pm


The biggest risk is financial. First of all, the airlines. Will there be enough airlines that will have a healthy enough balance sheet to purchase enough 7E7's to make it a financially a viable program.


From historical data, we know the airline industry is extremely cyclical.
We also know the industry has always recovered from all the down
cycles. We also know there are more than 1,000 of 767s and A300/310s
that will need to be replaced. So, the short answer to your question is
yes.


What will be the regulatory environment - i.e. International Open Skies? If there are no open skies then the 7E7's target market (long, thin city-pairs) will be restricted.


The world is slowly going down the road of a more deregulated
aviation industry. It's hard to turn back. Even if it's progressing at
a pace too slow to have an impact on the 7E7, we will still need
to replace the 767s and A300/310s.


Another risk is technological. Which of the new technologies that are proposed for the 7E7 will really be economically viable.


Boeing is a relatively conservative shop, I don't think they will try
something that's not economically viable.


What will be the price of oil? The price will have a significant direct impact on the attractiveness of the 7E7.


The more expensive the oil is, the more favorable impact it will have on
the 7E7.


And, last but not least, what will be the hit on the share price by launching the 7E7.


If Boeing doesn't do anything, the long-term impact on its share price
will be more dramatic and long lasting.
 
delta-flyer
Posts: 2631
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2001 9:47 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B7E7

Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:12 pm

Planemaker.....

Excellent questions. These are what all good businesses consider before launching a new program, and you can be sure Boeing is doing the same. I am also certain that Airbus isn't waiting for a Boeing launch announcement before formulating their response -- I am sure they are hard at work on it as we speak.

Dynkrisolo ..... good answers, I agree that Boeing is a very conservative shop - they have already rejected one technology that I know of for being too risky and expensive.

Pete
"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"

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