I do not think that Boeing,Going,Gone was too out of line in his original post. Maybe not in 20 years but I think that single pilot RJ
's are a very distinct possiblity.
As is common knowledge, current technology in the form of the Global Hawk has flown from California to Australia without any human intervention - from take-off to landing. We can very safely assume that technology will be much more capable and sophisticated in 20+ years to at least allow single pilot RJ
operation. Currently, single pilot "single turbine" (Cessna Caravan) commerical pax IFR ops are permitted (In North America, Australia and parts of Europe.) It is not too far a stretch to imagine that in 20+ years this will extend to RJ
Yes, I understand those that post that they would not feel comfortable flying with only a single pilot. It brings to mind how my grandparents' generation would not get in an elevator without an operator (once upon of time all elevators had "pilots".) But like all following generations, in 20+ years time the current generation will feel completely comfortable with the concept of a single pilot.
For the benefit of those that say "never", I present the following from a NASA website. It illustrates the problem about predictions and saying "never":
1) "Man will not fly for fifty years!"
- Wilbur Wright to his brother Orville, 1901
2) "New Mexico and California - I hold they are not worth a dollar!"
- Danial Webster:Senate speach: 1848
3) "...It [airplane] is not likely that it will ever carry more than 5 or 7 passengers!
- Managing Editor of Scietific America - June 1913
4) "... Alaska is... worth nothing... Of what possible commercial importance can this territory be to us!"
- Orange Ferriss - Hose of Rep. Debate, 1868
5) "The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
– Western Union executive, 1876
6) "The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn’t time for it."
– NY Times, 1939 (World’s Fair)
7) "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
– IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943
8) "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
– Popular Mechanics, 1949
9) "There is no reason for individuals to have a computer in their home.”
- DEC Chairman Ken Olson (DEC), 1977
10) "640,000 bytes of memory ought to be enough for anybody."
– Microsoft Chief Software Architect Bill Gates, 1981
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein