AvObserver
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Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

Boeing's 20-Year China Market Forecast

Tue Sep 23, 2003 7:21 am

I know this was discussed but the article is new...

http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_awst_story.jsp?id=news/09223air.xml

Certainly, Airbus will strongly disagree with this aspect of the study...

"Boeing's market analysis says that only 71 aircraft will be needed in the large twin-aisle transport category--747s or A380s--or just 3% of the market."

Has Airbus done a similar study lately? Could someone post a link to it if they're aware of one? Thanks.

 
bobrayner
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Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2003 8:03 am

RE: Boeing's 20-Year China Market Forecast

Tue Sep 23, 2003 1:41 pm

I haven't yet seen any similar, recent studies by Airbus...
Just a couple of content-free press releases.

Boeing's market analysis says that only 71 aircraft will be needed in the large twin-aisle transport category--747s or A380s--or just 3% of the market.

The 7.1% growth predicted by Boeing is roughly in line with the current Five Year Plan. Looking more closely at the plan, it expects the strongest growth in markets that are currently quite small - thick routes won't grow as strongly.

Also, they're spending lots of time and money improving rail links between these major destinations (Beijing-Shanghai used to take a day, now it's 14 hours, soon it'll be 5), and also stretching rails out to destinations that are currently only practical to reach by air. Being attacked from below, airlines would presumably put more emphasis on high frequencies than on moving millions of people.

Hence, demand for really big airliners isn't going to be so strong...
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bobrayner
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Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2003 8:03 am

RE: Boeing's 20-Year China Market Forecast

Tue Sep 23, 2003 2:12 pm

There's a lot of information here: http://www.airbus.com/pdf/media/gmf2001.pdf

It says similar things about traffic volume, but doesn't explain what each area's fleet needs will be. Globally, large airliners would represent about 8% of deliveries and 20% of revenue.

Caveats: It's 2 years old, and "only" forecasts up to 2020.
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bobrayner
Posts: 2038
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2003 8:03 am

RE: Boeing's 20-Year China Market Forecast

Wed Sep 24, 2003 1:29 pm

Yet another followup post...

If you have too much time on your hands, you can read what UNESCAP thinks. It doesn't go into much detail about airliners, but it's good background.
http://www.unescap.org/tctd/pubs/statabs02.htm
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