futureualpilot
Posts: 2402
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747-400 Service Length and Replacement?

Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:38 am

As we all know, the 741s and 742s served many airlines for 30+ years, and some continue to serve today. I was just wondering how long you think the 744 will serve with its operators, and what, if anything, will replace it.
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AA777
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RE: 747-400

Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:09 am

The 744's have been serving for....up to 15 years now I believe. So, the majority of them have quite a bit of time left on them before they start to get phased out. Alot of people predict that the A380 will be the next 744. I think that airlines will definitley invest alot in the A380, but not to the extent that they have the 744. Very few long haul flights need that kind of capacity, plus the frequency of flights will go down: something that passengers wont like (i.e. they have less options when flying--flight times etc). It looks like Boeing's biggest project has been the 7E7, and not any newer version of the 747. For now, a viable option is the 777-300, which can carry almost as many pax as the 744, (if not more?). Hope that answers some of your questions.

-AA777
 
B4REAL
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RE: 747-400

Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:17 am

I agree with AA777

I will be curious if the A380 will be as fast as the 747-400 series (someone may know the answer to that).

The 747-400, and more specifically the ER version, could feasibly be manufactured for another 10 years. That would put a potential retirement date of 2033! That would have to be a record for a series of an aircraft. Granted the 747-100 and 747-400ER are quite different!

I wonder how far the 777 program will go. Is a -400 or -500 out of the question? The 7E7 still has some discussion on placement.

If there would be a replacement, a 777 series - 777-XER would be the replacement - more pax, another 500 miles range from the 747-400 ER.

A 747-500 or 747-500ER sounds scary! Imagine a wing with two GE 90s or bigger on it!!! That would need to be a very strong wing!
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Shenzhen
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RE: 747-400

Tue Sep 30, 2003 11:56 am

I think Boeing are talking about another update to the 747-400, using tech that has/will be developed for the 7e7.

The latest I've heard is a potential entry date of 2008, yes 2008 for the updated 747(If they could sell any).

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CanadianNorth
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RE: 747-400

Tue Sep 30, 2003 12:05 pm

for now you have yer B777-300ER. The range is fairly close to that of the B744, aswell as the passenger loads are only about 30 passengers less (give or take some), so for range/pax the B777-300ER for now will make a decent replacement for the 744. I think that the 744 will be around for a while to come, but personally I think that Boeing's future will be with the B737NG, B7E7, and B777 lines.

CanadianNorth
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futureualpilot
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RE: 747-400

Tue Sep 30, 2003 12:11 pm

Thanks for the replies! I was thinkin the 773ER would be the replacement too, but that wont be for a while hopefully!
Clear skies all
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B747-4U3
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Tue Sep 30, 2003 3:17 pm

If the current 744s are around 15 years old, Boeing still has another 5-10yrs until it has to introduce an updated 744.

In theory, it could be done fairly quickly as they are just changing an already good design.

I think Beoing will have to be careful where it places this new 744. I think one that is slightly larger than the current 744, but smaller that the 380 would be ideal.
 
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Richard28
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:09 am

Unless Boeing to did a radical re-design, a new 747 will be pointless.

Any new product will need to have a comparible seat cost to the A380, and be desirable enough to have a good re-sale value to other airlines later in its life.

The B747 frame will not facilitate this without major expense and work - Boeing is much better placed concentrating on the new versions of the 777 programme IMHO.

Rich.
 
airways6max
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Wed Oct 01, 2003 10:11 am


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The 747-400 has been in commercial service since 1989, so not quite 15 years. A good many of the original versions of the 747 were in operation for over thirty years, so I would expect the 747-400 to carry on for at least another fifteen years. There probably will be demand for a replacement of the -400 by about 2020.

I don't think that the Airbus A380 will be a huge sales success. It is too big for nearly all the routes that airlines fly today, it will likely be a gas-guzzler and expensive to operate. I hope that Boeing can make a success of the 7E7 and it should consider producing a large, four-engined version of the 7E7 for very long routes--e.g, New York-Sydney that has the same capacity as the 747-400 and the visual presence of the 747.
 
aeroyu
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Thu Oct 02, 2003 1:09 am

Will some airlines will convert the B747-400 passengers to B747-400F?
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Richard28
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Thu Oct 02, 2003 4:00 am

Airways6max:

The A380 is designed to be efficient, and not a "gas-guzzler" (otherwise why would they build it?)

To operate at the break even cost compared to the 744, the A380 needs only 33 more passengers, with the extra space (232 seats) as pure profit.

source: http://www.airbus.com/product/a380_economics.asp

With seat cost being the main driver in carrier success (just look at the low cost carriers) this sort of cost saving I believe will be viable and profitable on the key trunk routes.

Don't forget that a shortened version of the A380 is also planned which would be more of a 744 size, and more appropriate to "lower" capacity routes.

Rich.
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Thu Oct 02, 2003 8:22 pm

We plan to keep ours till they are 25 years old, which is quite a few years away. However it is highly likely that we will be announcing a joint venture plan to convert pax 744s to freighters soon, as was reported by Flight international a few weeks ago.
 
ual777
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Fri Oct 03, 2003 6:10 am

Richard, not meaning to be rude, but what is the yield on those seats. With some of the fares out now, you can fill a plane full and still NOT make money.
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cedarjet
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RE: 747-400 Service Length And Replacement?

Fri Oct 03, 2003 6:58 am

Fares sure are low, especially across the pond. BA are pushing NY return for £199 inclusive. After tax, that's about £80 each way. You wouldn't get to Portugal on easyJet for that, most days.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz

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