The reason AZ
split up was that the Italian government did not speed up privatisation of Alitalia.
The same thing COULD prevent AZ
to enter the AF
alliance. However, the Italian PM
Berlusconi said a week ago he would do anything in his power to get AZ
into the new alliance.
Delta is in SkyTeam, Northwest committed itself to their partnership with KLM AFTER the AF
Continental, already teaming up with DL
in the US will follow.
Malaysian and Kenya Airways are linked to KLM since a number of years, they are the most likely to follow.
There is room for Star, SkyTeam and OneWorld.
I do not see a fourth alliance be formed, because all the goodies are taken by now.