myk
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German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 7:21 am

What do you think, is their a market in Germany for a second airline like VS / BA in the UK ?

 
Sabena332
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 7:38 am

I don't know if a competition like in the UK would be possible here in Germany because if there would come up a new airline, than would LH try everything to buy them, sue them or to make them bankrupt like they always do with almost every German airline except the charters.

Of course I wish that we would have such a hard competition between two airlines but I don't think it will ever come true. As long as there is no competitor, LH can still introduce a new Economy without PTV's and people still fly on this crap class.

Patrick
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Fly-K
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 3:58 pm

Well, then it should be easy, just have PTVs in coach, and the new airline will make money like crazy  Big grin

No, seriously, we have to look at the market structure. LON is the largest market in Europe, and the UK market is especially strong in longhaul, so VS is able to get a fair share. The second largest market is PAR, but all attempts to establish a second longhaul carrier have more or less failed (UTA, AOM, AirLib etc), just Corsair as a leisure carrier is around (in a similar role as LTU and TC in Germany). By contrast, the much smaller FRA and MUC markets wouldn't support a second longhaul carrier, however, due to the "decentral" structure of Germany with other large catchments, there might be opportunities elsewhere, such as in DUS (slot and runway length issues aside).
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TriStar500
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 4:23 pm

If there should ever be a second big player in Germany, it will be a "multinational" (in the sense of: operating from bases all over Europe) carrier, most likely a low-cost one.

A domestic competitor won't be able to gain critical mass in order to become profitable, it will be crushed by LH or just be able to stay afloat for a while (e.g. DI). BTW, no LH-bashing intended, all the other major carriers in Europe are trying to do the same with their secondary national competitors, and although it seems to be "unfair", it is what competition is all about.

My guess would be that Easyjet, or a similar business-pax oriented LCC operating on a European scale will be the biggest and only dangerous competitor against LH on domestic and international flights in ten years.

Homer: Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!
 
wgw2707
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 6:36 pm

Perhaps now would be a good time to revive Interflug!

Seriously though, a new carrier in Germany would be excellent for the German people, the question is, is there any way humanly possible that the airline could avoid being crushed to death by Lufthansa? Lufthansa is very, very, very deeply embedded into the German economy. An example is the Lufthansa/DB partnership, which is probably the best-developed intermodal air/rail transport partnership in the world. They have even run special trains painted in the Lufthansa livery on the DB network and LH has marketed the services as "Flights."

Given this kind of interworking, I think it could be very difficult for a new German national airline to become competitive in Germany, but it would certainly be a great occasion for German aviation should such an airline be launched. Perhaps one way to ensure success would be to bypass FRA and MUC and use alternate airports, such as DUS, HAM, or one of the Rhine Valley airports, or perhaps one of the Berlin airports. This would be a good way to bypass LH's most heavily entrenched markets and at the same time still have an excellent passenger base to draw from.

As far as the fleet is concerned, I personally think that an ideal fleet would either be an all-Airbus fleet of A318s for domestic and short range service, A319-21s for trans-European services, and A340-500/600s for international services OR an alternate fleet of Fairchild Dornier 728/928 or ERJ175/190 aircraft for short distance services, 737-700/800s for medium distance services and the new 7E7 and 777s for international services.

This new airline could be viable. It would be interesting to see the results, in any case.

-WGW2707
 
Arsenal@LHR
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 10:05 pm

UK also has a third long haul carrier in BMI.
Isn't Condor considered a 'big' carrier in Germany? Same trend in France also where AF is the only major airline with long haul services with no domestic competitor.
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DaV
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 12:59 am

Fly-K, you have a very interesting point. I share your view.

UK also has a third long haul carrier in BMI.
Isn't Condor considered a 'big' carrier in Germany? Same trend in France also where AF is the only major airline with long haul services with no domestic competitor.


I think that in the original poster's mind was a comparison to the US market where multiple "strong" carrier share operation in the same city-market (AA and UA in ORD for example), not to company with limited route map or charter airlines... better than the single Germany market it would be of more interest extend the same question to the whole EU market: will we ever see a LH heavy depart from CDG or LHR and a BA 777 taking off from MUC or BRU?

DaV
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Beaucaire
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 1:42 am

I think Air Berlin could slowly grow into the role of a major second german Main-Carrier.Although currently only centered on charter and some City Flights,they have managed to catch more than 6 Million passengers and are growing steadily.
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myk
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 1:48 am

When i thought about a second airline, i thought primary to transatlantic flights. I think that there are a market. But LH never allowed this type of concurrent on flights with high revenue. But for germany, it could be a great thing.
The german market is much better and dynamic than for example the french one. And in Germany are several catchement areas, not only FRA and MUC.
 
TriStar500
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 2:27 am

Problem is that for a dedicated long-haul carrier you need an attractive (both in terms of business and leisure) O&D market and a large (in terms of passenger potential) population base.
However, with Germany's decentralized federal structure there is no urban conglomeration which fulfills all necessary needs. MUC, HAM, BER and FRA will not reach the critical mass necessary for a long-haul hub without feeder flights.
The Rhine-Ruhr area, although comparable in population size to Paris and London, doesn't cut it in terms of business and leisure O&D. It is are not an attractive destination for private travellers, is is not a business center of worldwide importance and the average income is AFAIK lower than that in the Paris and London metropolitain areas.
Homer: Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!
 
airbazar
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 2:41 am

I don't get it. Isn't there enough competiton for LH on medium/long haul flights out of Germany? Many airlines fly out of FRA and MUC non-stop to various cities around the World. What difference does it make whether the airline is based in Germany or not?
 
TriStar500
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RE: German Market, How About 2 Big Carriers?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 2:56 am

The difference lies in the feed at the other end. A foreign airline will be able to offer connections from their German destination(s) to all the other cities of their network via their hub, while a specialzed German longhaul airline will not be able to distribute its passengers at either end of the long haul flight.

E.g. AA doesn't only offer flights between FRA and ORD or DFW, but also to hundreds of other North, Central and South American destinations via their hubs.

Homer: Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!

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