GoAibusGo
Topic Author
Posts: 237
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2001 11:01 am

100-Seat Aircraft Market, A Yes Or A No?

Thu Oct 09, 2003 11:55 pm

Since the 1980s I kept on hearing and reading about 100- seat aircraft market.
That there were a lot of 100-seat airplanes needed in the long term. In the next 25 years. A couple of years ago I read about it again.

But....

Up until now, I see no large orders or any 100- seat aircraft selling particularly well.
You have the Boeing 717, 737-600, the Airbus 318, the Bombardier CRJ-900, the EMBRAER 190/195 on the market available right now, and all are selling poorly.
Even the Fokker 100, Boeing 737-500 and the BAe 146/AVRO RJ (100 seater versions) sold marginal.

Is this curse of the DC-9-30 and the 737-200 ?

Your reactions.......

GoAirbusGo

 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: 100-Seat Aircraft Market, A Yes Or A No?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 12:59 am

First off, your timing is off - no one in the 80's was talking much about a lot of new 100 seat aircraft.

Second, it has nothing to do with a DC-9 or 737 curse - just sheer number of airframes built.

With so many 737-200's available for a relative song (almost every LCC started with the -200) there hasn't been much that could compete with it acquisition-wise.

Of the current aircraft available now, only the 717 really fits the bill as a true 100 seater. The reasons why it hasn't sold has been discussed repeatedly in this forum so there is no need to go into that subject. The A318 is too heavy to be a cost efficient 100 seater, as is the 737-600.

Re. past aircraft, Fokker was always on shakey economic grounds, as was the AVRO RJ. BAe was trying to get rid of it any way they could, even trying to sell it to a Malaysian company.

BBD and EMB were only RJ manufacturers and, in the 1980's, Scope Clauses precluded dreaming of making a 100 seat jet back then.

Anyhow, BBD delivered their first 70 seat jet only 2 years ago. and the first CRJ-900 delivery was only this January - but the CRJ-900 is not even close to being a 100 seat aricraft. Standard one class configuration is 86 seats (I believe that the 90 seater is with a 30" pitch, reduced rear baggage hold, no galleys and one lav...)

The E190/195 haven't even flown yet (Sept. 29 was the first 190 fuse join.) However, they do already have 125 firm orders and options for another 100 aircraft.

I believe that: as the travel industry continues to recover; together with the eventual Star Alliance order; and with the continued loosening of Scope Clauses, I am quite confident that you will start to see a good number of 100 seat aircraft ordered.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
cfalk
Posts: 10221
Joined: Mon Dec 04, 2000 6:38 pm

RE: 100-Seat Aircraft Market, A Yes Or A No?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 1:18 am

It's not a market that you want to bet a company on. Too much competition means that profit margins will be absolutely minimal - especially in this market of few orders.

Charles
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
GoAibusGo
Topic Author
Posts: 237
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2001 11:01 am

RE: 100-Seat Aircraft Market, A Yes Or A No?

Fri Oct 10, 2003 6:11 am

Planemaker:

When I mentioned the 80s, I meant the second half of the 80s. It's when the Fokker 100 just made its first flight.
And by then some DC-9s and some 737-200(non-advanced) models were getting older and eligible for replacement.

Thanks for the info, especially about the CRJ-900