Delta777Jet
Topic Author
Posts: 1226
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2000 6:19 am

Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sat Nov 08, 2003 8:11 pm

What do you think will be the next US Airline to enter Chapter 11?
Will United exit Chapter 11 and how long do they still have to exit Chapter 11?
Is Air Canada going to exit the Canadian Chapter 11???
B-717/722/737-200/300/400/500/600/700/800/900/B-747-100/200/400/SP/8i/B-752/3/B-762/3/4/B-772/LR/300ER/B-788/DC-10-10/30/L-1011-1/500/MD-81/82/83/90/A-319/320/321/AB6/312/313/332/333/342/343/346/359/388/TU154/IL-18/ATR-42/72/DH4/DH3/E145/E170/190/CR2/7/9
 
workbench
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 1999 3:22 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sat Nov 08, 2003 11:27 pm

1. American - Late 2004
2. American - Late 2004
3. American - Late 2004
4. American - Late 2004
5. American - Late 2004

UA will exit in Mid 2004. The US Airline industry really needs a big boy to go out of business for the rest of the industry to recover. It may as well be the bigest predator that has forced so many other airlines out of business.
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sat Nov 08, 2003 11:31 pm

AA I don't think will enter bankruptcy, as they almost did in April. I think they're in the clear.

Conti-Ok
Delta-Strong, but maybe
USAIR-In and out.
NW: I cannot believe how much money they made last quarter!

I've always wondered if maybe one of the LCC's would enter chapter 11. Knowing that they're making money, I have no idea what to expect.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sat Nov 08, 2003 11:59 pm

I could see US going back to chapter 11, also I am not sure about Midwest.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
Matt D
Posts: 8907
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 1999 6:00 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 12:11 am

So Workbench: tell us again who you think is going to be the next bankrupt airline? Big grin
 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 12:17 am

American by Spring of 2004
US Airways may revisit by May of 2004
Midwest by February of 2004 (CH. 7 by late Summer 2004)

 
StevenUhl777
Posts: 3281
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2001 11:02 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 2:17 am

American? What is this based upon? What would be the "nails in the coffin" that would bring this about?

My bet is US, for the following reasons:
- Still losing money after emerging from Ch. 11..meaning their restructuring efforts failed...there were still more cuts to be made and they didn't make them. UA on the other hand is posting operational profits while still in Ch. 11...meaning the core business is profitable again. Only reason for the net loss were the "special items" related to bankruptcy, and those go away once you're out.
- Facing increased competition in two key hubs, one being SWA. What will their counteroffensive be?
- What will they have to do to cut costs further to stop losing money? More employee wage concessions? Lots of luck...

Delta777:
- United will reemerge, and it's probably going to be either March 31st or June 30th of 2004.
- Air Canada is supposed to emerge I believe 12/2003...they just got an extension for protection, but that was only for two months.
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2498
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 3:44 am

Workbench,

American seems to be holding their own, They're still losing $200M quarterly but they're doing a much better job at restructuring than UAL is doing.....

I'd be quite surprised to see them slide into Chapter11. (9/11, Chapter11....wow the number 11 has come up in some very bleak areas, maybe it'll surpass 13?)

Delta acted quickly enough in restructuring to avoid sliding into trouble. Their future looks bright.

I'm very skeptical of NWAs accounting practices lately. Just how are they doing that well?

[Edited 2003-11-08 19:52:37]
The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
 
LHR001
Posts: 966
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2003 1:56 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 3:46 am

AA

AA

AA

AA

AA

AA
 
Guest

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 3:47 am

I think they all might just make it. It'll take time to get there, but each is doing what they can.

On NWA... Not totally sure why, but they are. Also, the lack of a SARS problem is bringing people back to the Mall of America from the Pacific Rim. Full whales all day long...
 
mlsrar
Posts: 1384
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 7:41 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 3:54 am

Midwest received a significant financial aid package from Milwaukee and Racine counties. Coupled with voluntary wage concessions, and Milwaukee county lifting the property tax on aircraft, YX should be able to remain out of bankruptcy.

Hoeksma was very frank with the employees, told them what restructuring was necessary to survive, and they agreed. It was inspiring.

My .02 would be Delta, but their ability to stay out of B-court is a function of Song's success.
I mean, for the right price I’ll fight a lion. - Mike Tyson
 
TWFirst
Posts: 5752
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2000 5:30 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 4:00 am

>>On NWA... Not totally sure why, but they are.<<

Here's why I think they're doing so well (comparitively):

1) Great hubs/route structure. The new WorldGateway at DTW and the revamped MSP are fabulous airports, and even though the facilities at MEM are not in the same category, it's still a great airport to connect at, and NW is managing the seats out of there quite nicely, which leads me to:

2) Great management.

3) All the investment they made into technology the past few years is paying off. By far the most technologically advanced of the majors... on-line check ins, airport kiosks, internet bookings, are way ahead of their competitors.
An unexamined life isn't worth living.
 
Ex_SQer
Posts: 1351
Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2002 5:43 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 4:33 am

I just want to correct one misconception here. It isn't always profits (or lack thereof) that leads companies to declare backruptcy - more often than not it is one's ability to pay the bills that leads to declaration of bankruptcy. Theoretically, a firm can make an accounting profit, yet not have enough cash flow to pay the bills, leading to BK. On the flip side, a firm could be making losses because of noncash expenses, but still have enough cash flow to pay the bills and hence avoid BK.
 
UAL-Fan
Posts: 342
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 1999 1:36 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 5:04 am

Can a company just go in and out of Chapt. 11 bk. at it's whim? I thought there were some sort of laws that said you can't do that. Isn't chapt. 7 the next step after chapt. 11 fails?
 
AA7573E
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2003 11:34 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 5:15 am

I would like to know what the anti AA sentiment out here is based on? They have led the charge in employee concessions, pioneered the rolling hub concept, cut fat out their route system, consolidated aircraft families, delayed delivery of new equipment, renegotiated real estate and aircraft leases, obtained competitive long term financing, reduced capacity in unprofitable markets, cut service in terrible markets and continue to add targeted service on a strategic and tactical basis. What part of that makes you think they are headed to Chapter 11? Seriously, if you don't like the airline that is great, but I would love to see some backing for your assertion that by this time next year, the carrier with the most aggressive stance on cost cutting and restructuring will be in chapter 11. And just to be consistent with the facts, AMR posted third quarter operating profits of $165 million, and net earnings of $1 million.

My guess is that in the next 12 months, if anyone is going anywhere, it will be US. They are going to take it on the chin in PHL. Anyway you frame that, it will hurt the airline. Their bloated east coast route structure is on tenuous ground from LCC competition, and the simple fact that a majority of their routes are easily driven in a reasonable time, by PAX that are afraid to fly, weary of the new airport experience or simply unable to afford airfare. In addition, they HAVE to upgrade their longhaul fleet. It has been well documented on this and other sites, that their 767s are in shambles, and not a nice ride. Sooner rather than later, they are going to need to invest a lot of money to replace them, and that will hurt. Simply put, I don't think that US has the ability, given the deck they have, to call any bets, or take any gambles. They are most at risk of all the majors, and it seems that their first attempt to fix things was not as comprehensive or successful as it was supposed to be. Lastly, I have nothing to base this on, but I still think they have too much capacity in the air. I have taken 8 round trips on US this year, and every single flight had more empty seats than filled seats. I know this is just a micro slice, but in my impression, they have too much capacity in the market.

How is NWA more advanced than any other major. They all have internet check in, they all have kiosks, they all have online booking. The technology is the same, I don't see how you distinguish between NWA, DL, AA or any other major - or LCC for that fact. They are all on equal ground when it comes to technology available to the consumers.



[Edited 2003-11-08 21:17:39]
See you up front!
 
RiverVisualNYC
Posts: 926
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:11 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 6:02 am

The definition of bankruptcy is not losing money as such, but having liabilities that exceed your assets. A company can be showing a paper profit each quarter, but to know how it's really doing you also have to look at the balance sheet. In this regard I don't know who is vulnerable, I hope they can all make it, but I think the public, with its short attention span, thinks the industry is back to business as usual. If someone significant had to stop flying I think it would be a major shock to the traveling public (anyone remember PA or EA?) and possibly even enough to make us question the economic recovery that is supposedly happening.
 
fjnovak1
Posts: 574
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2000 2:23 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 7:35 am

Another reason Northwest profits even in quarters that other cartel carriers do not are those 160+ venerable DC-9s and, to a lesser degree, the 20 or so DC-10s and the handful of 747-200s. 85 or 90% of these aircraft are fully purchased and paid off (i thought i read somewhere that a dozen or so DC-9s and some of the 747-200s were leased). Back in the early to mid '90s when Northwest was in dire straits and just out of Ch. 11 itself management made the seemingly unpopular decision to retrofit the tired-looking cabin interiors of the 1960s and 1970s era DC-9 fleet rather than place a large order for new aircraft. They did place the airbus orders to replace the large 727 fleet and for expansion purposes, but lots of money was spent as well on new interiors for the 165 or so DC-9s, the 747-200 fleet, and half of the 757-200 fleet which now is 15-20 years old themselves.

Compile that with the fact that, while older planes can be more costly to maintain, Northwest's DC-9s are beautifully maintained, and have the highest dispatch rate of any aircraft in the fleet. As it is frequently mentioned, pilots at Northwest joke that when the final A319 is ferried out to Mojave, its crew will ride back to Detroit in a red-tailed DC-9.

Because whenever a Northwest -9 lifts off it signals almost pure profit, NW is able to run their DC-9s on routes other cartel carriers would have CRJs and ERJs on. Detroit-Traverse City, Minneapolis-Grand Forks, Minneapolis-Rochester, MN, Memphis-Ft. Walton Beach/Valpairaiso, FL...all these routes have at least a couple DC-9 turns daily. One must think that CO, a great airline in of itself, would have nothing to do with these cities from their hubs if it wasn't for the ERJ.

So, for a laymen that doesn't know one aircraft from another besides maybe seating arrangements, the Northwest -9 looks the same to them as would an Airtran B717 (interiors are quite similar, indeed). Fact is a Northwest DC-9, 37 years old, makes US Airways 737-300s look like planes from a 3rd world carrier. Some of the DC-9s look better on the interior than the earliest NW A320s.

And for the business traveler who prefers a mainline aircraft to a regional jet or turboprop, the DC-9 fits that bill too. I'd say if it was not for that plane, Northwest might not be so successful.

Notice I do not say the same for the DC-10 and 747-200. I've never been on the 747-200 so I cannot speak on it but it appears that travelers have spoken and they want something newer on premium routes and NW listened and now we see them getting new A330s. Apparently the 747-200 are to be short-lived also, relegating the DC-10s eventually to Hawaii and Beach Market routes, where they are a great fit and likely will make NW more money.

On the risk of sounding like a die-hard Northwest coddler, let me preface this with two things: 1) at least NW doesn't start stupid sounding LCCs like "TED" and 2) NW is not always great, my mother was delayed for 6 hours in New York b/c of them cancelling flights ex- GA / KLGA), USA - New York">LGA and EWR for "weather delays" (thing is, CO was running on time to DTW, her destination, which puzzled me)...

Nevertheless, NW makes money, is generally very solid (good on time rate), and since I consider Michigan home (currently I live in Savannah, GA though), I think of Northwest as my 'hometown' airline and I want them to do well.
Go Blue!!
 
syncmaster
Posts: 1926
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2002 9:55 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 7:49 am

AA7573E: You ask how one can see NWA is the technological leader, who do you think had online check-in first, they had self-service kiosks installed in more airports before United and many others even started having them in cities besides there own hubs, they have them in such cities as South Bend Indiana, and only NWA does, DL doesn't, AA doesn't, UAL doesn't, and Continental doesn't.

[Edited 2003-11-09 00:13:13]
 
phxmkeflyer
Posts: 187
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2003 9:11 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 7:49 am

I thought AA was going to go into CH. 11 this past spring and they still have yet to file and are somehow still managing to stay out....not exactly sure how but it's really up in the air if they will enter or not, i believe it will conitnue to be up to AA management and their ability to continue to restructure with their employees and their union contracts, it's whats kept them out so far. Midwest Airlines I think is the other airline which is/may be on the brink of CH.11, however I don't think their outlook is as grim as some have made it out to be, they are receiving much support from local governments and their employees and are continuing to restructure themselves and lower their operating costs.
 
ckfred
Posts: 4713
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 7:57 am

If UA slides into Chapter 7, then none of the other majors should go into Chapter 11. The loss of available seats from the #2 carrier takes care of the excess capacity in the industry.

Does UA slide into 7? Depends on how they do this winter. If things improve, they keep their debtor-in-possession fincancing. If things worsen, their financing gets yanked, and the slide starts.
 
AR385
Posts: 6741
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:13 am

Any of you are ignoring the fact that there was a notice in the papers today saying that Mexicana is withdrawing from the Star Alliance due to its break-up of its code-share agreement with UAL. You may think Mexicana is a puny airline with no influence in Star Alliance whatsoever. But how is UAL going to feed traffic South and Central America into its SFO, LAX, ORD hubs. This traffic is very high-premium and usually consists of high-end businessmen from Brazil, Argentina, Chile, etc. some staying in those cities butmany connecting on to Europe and Asia. How much more money is UAL going to loose with this dumb move. This traffic is going to go to Aeromexico and Air France in Skyteam.

AR385
 
TWFirst
Posts: 5752
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2000 5:30 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:29 am

AA7573E:

It's irrelevant if the same technology is available to all consumers. The point is how the majors are utilizing the technology... NW invested major amounts of money in their back end systems way before its competitors, and has done a much better job of pushing its customers to utilizing its front end offerings and thus has a higher percentage of customers using internet check in, kiosks, etc., than its competitors. Customers appreciate the reliability of NW's systems, and the ease-of-use of its user interfaces, and thus continue to use it.
An unexamined life isn't worth living.
 
mattnrsa
Posts: 360
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 12:27 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:29 am

I can't imagine MX provided much feed from Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. They would generally have to connect via MX), Mexico">MEX just to get to a United flight. Varig provides the feed from that region of the world.

It was MX's decision to leave, not UA's "dumb move". There is a lenghty discussion already going on about the possible reasons for MX's decision.
 
AA7573E
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2003 11:34 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:49 am

All of this talk about NWA putting their technology in first just does not do it for me. Let me preface this by saying I have used all the major's websites for purchases, research and flight tracking. I consider myself more savy than the average traveler (as are you), why else would I(we) be here? I can't really tell the difference between the flight look up on NWA and that on Continental; the reservations system on NWA and that found at AA; the seat search function on AA and the similar application on NWA. Its all the same thing. In point of fact, if they put their technology in place that far ahead of the others, I would imagine that means it is a bit dated. As we all know, technology changes fast. You can not claim a competitive advantage when all the airlines are using the same technology, for the same purpose, with the same degree of urgency. No major airline has avoided investment in this area, they have to do it stay alive, and it makes good fiscal sense. On average, all of the majors get within a small range, the same portion of their business from online purchases. All airlines have invested in kiosks and self help centers.

So all the majors don't have kiosks in Southbend Indiana? Are you kidding me. That's probably do to some analysis done by the airlines that says you have to X amount of business originating from a destination in order to justify the expense of installing, maintaining and utilizing the kiosk system. You also have to have a demonstrated willingness by your PAX at that airport to use them. Not everyone wants to use the kiosks, and if their market research says not in Southbend, then they aren't going to put it Southbend.

I don't think you can really claim that NWA or any other major has done a better job of pushing people to use the net, than then next major. LCCs and rising costs did that. New companies like amazon.com and online banking pushed people further into the net. Airlines, and all other trend savy companies will continue to drive customers to the net. You paint NWA as if there were going out on the limb - being a risk taking, cavalier, pioneer that revolutionized air travel in this respect. Everyone did it, right around the same time.

That being said, I enjoy traveling on NWA. I have gotten great service, and the attention to detail in first class is very nice. I do not like the DC9s, but that plane has always been low on my list. I have no bone against the airline at all, in fact I will be flying them home to Texas for Christmas this year, b/c they beat the pants off the competition in terms of pricing, and I had some free upgrades to burn. I don't want anything to force NWA out. I just don't agree with the point that their technology is any better, more useful or more ground breaking than all the others out there.

AA7573E
See you up front!
 
Lan_Fanatic
Posts: 1056
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2001 11:41 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:58 am

How much traffic does Mexicana connect via Mex?

UAL has its own traffic in South America
LanChile has the major stake in chilean-US market, and if you neede to connect, you will use AA.

I don't see MX as soooo important for the south cone.
 
AR385
Posts: 6741
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:03 am

MAttnrsa,

You are forgetting the passengers who had finished their 1 or 2 day business in Mexico and needed to go on Mexican or United, to any of their hubs in the US, stay a day or two or not and then move to Asia or Europe. They could not use Varig from Mexico for that purpose, unfortunately. So, it was a dumb move.
 
mattnrsa
Posts: 360
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 12:27 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:41 am

Why is it UA's dumb move? It was all MX's decision.
 
AR385
Posts: 6741
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:59 am

MAttnrsa,

You are tight, my mistake I apologize

AR385 Martin
 
NWAA330
Posts: 196
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2003 5:18 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 1:09 pm

On the issue of NWA and whether or not they are more technologically advanced than other carriers the answer is both yes and no. AA7573E is right when he says that all of the major carriers are basically the same when it comes to what technologies they offer. NW however was the first to provide wide spread e-ticket use, online booking/seat selection/itinerary changes refunds/exchanges/etc. It also has more e-ticket check in kiosks at more locations than any other airline in the world. NW's website nwa.com is consistently rated the best among airlines world wide by independent site rating agencies. NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass and NW is known throughout the industry for its turbulence avoidance and weather prediction systems. NW has been leading the way for years, they were the first airline to incorporate modern day oxygen masks which enabled it to fly over the Rockies back in 1938 and was the first to introduce the electronic boarding pass scanners you see at gates across the country.


"Its all the same thing. In point of fact, if they put their technology in place that far ahead of the others, I would imagine that means it is a bit dated." I find this to argument to be flawed, of course to remain competitive NW as with any other airline would continually update their technology. To sum it up a report recently cited in the Detroit news stated that today 70% of pax traveling on NW use their personal computers or e-ticket machines to check in. That's far higher than at any other carrier and I feel clearly demonstrates NW's commitment and superiority over other carriers when comparing technology. http://www.detnews.com/2003/business/0311/07/b01-318736.htm

Regards,
NWAA330
To Fly is to Live.
 
PVD757
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 1:23 pm

I believe it will be ATA. Last quarter, which is usually the strongest for airlines, ATA had trouble making their debt payment for their new aircraft. It was 500+ million and they struggled to pay it on time. If they do not reduce their interest expenses, they will struggle in the bad quarters.
 
Moolies
Posts: 476
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:59 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 5:56 pm

The US airline industry needs an entire revamp. They need to employ some people who are passionate about aviation and are prepared to put in the extra hours with out getting recognition or paid for it and that will be the catalyst for a successful US airline.
 
AMM744
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Oct 20, 2003 4:23 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 6:35 pm

Moolies, Thank You.

At last someone has said something sensible. None of the current US carriers are anything special at all, the top two are at best AVERAGE when compared to other global carriers.

Average in the sense of service, professionalism etc.

 
Moolies
Posts: 476
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:59 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 7:03 pm

Take for example SAA. They did an entire fleet revamp, image revamp, the changed their seats, fired the useless people and got compatent guys in. They went from making about $150 million loss to making $70 million profit in 3 years. They have a wonderful CEO ANDRE VILJOEN. He ahs doen wonders, pity some european carrier is trying to get him.

 
FFlyer
Posts: 552
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2001 6:46 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:23 pm

"NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass"

Hasn't at least Delta had this for a long time?!
 
goingboeing
Posts: 4727
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 1999 1:58 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:47 pm

US will go Chapter 7, basically because their "competitive response" to SWA's entry into PHL will be to offer super cut rate fares while asking the employees to take deeper concessions (again) to help them remain competitive. Unfortunately for US folks they could work for nothing and the "competitive response" will insure that the company STILL won't turn a profit.
 
AASTEW
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2001 10:47 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:03 pm

It kills me when people here think their Armchair CEO positions are the gospel.

Remember, everyone was given predictions for UAL, USAir Group, AMR, DAL, and NWA.

Almost, everybody counted UAL and US out a long time ago.....guess what their still here and kicking. People thought AMR would be next in line, wrong again. AA did post a VERY small profit! People said DL and CO would be first to profitability. Right about CO, wrong about DL! NWA was supposedly had the most detrimental debt and would follow AA. NWA also reported a profit.

I have learned while IN this industry that NOTHING goes as planned.

 
Alpha 1
Posts: 12343
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2001 12:12 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:07 pm

"NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass.

Sure they're the only one-that's why I was able to do it for my mother-in-law on her CLE-MCI CO flight a month ago. CO has that capability, and I'm seeing more and more of those boarding passes every day.
 
AASTEW
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2001 10:47 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:12 pm

AA.com provides check-in and print boarding pass capability. I also think AA tried to start phone check-in...don't think that passed though. Someone?
 
NWAA330
Posts: 196
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2003 5:18 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:47 am

I apologize for my claim that NW was the ONLY airline offering internet check in on personal computers. They were indeed the FIRST to offer this innovation but it seems their alliance partners DL, CO have cought up. Either way I think its quite clear that they are pioneers when it comes to aviation tech. outside the a/c. Whether or not that is one of the driving forces behind their "success" of late is debatable.

Apologies,
NWAA330

[Edited 2003-11-09 16:50:25]
To Fly is to Live.
 
AA717driver
Posts: 1502
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2002 8:27 am

RE: As Time Goes By: Many 767s Bound For Scrapping

Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:51 am

AASTEW--AA has nearly $20 BILLION in debt. The interest payments alone in a couple of years will be over $300M a year. The pension deficit(caused by management pulling money out of the funds during the boom prior to 9/11) is a problem and the PBGC(all AA employees should become VERY familiar with that entity) has no more money to assume a huge pension plan termination.

AA has probably the worst labor reations in the business(perhaps Mesa might be worse) and management is still lying and violating the contracts at will despite their recent statements about wanting better relations with the employees.

The current downtraining of the pilot group is taking at least 6 months longer than it should. The pilot contract is not generating nearly the savings the company anticipated. (Try coming back for more, Gerrard.)

Do I think they will file? No. Unless... If they can't get their debt restructured and the pension shorfall under control there will be problems. A wild card is whether a LCC will invade DFW. Death by a thousand cuts?TC

P.S.--I value everyone's "opinions" the same becuase none of us has the real inside scoop. Big grin
FL450, M.85
 
N754PR
Posts: 2909
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 1999 10:03 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:56 am

ATLAS/POLAR, heard this from a person in the company.
Bush, your a sad, sad man.
 
aaway
Posts: 1239
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:07 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:07 am

If they go through with the independence/LCC plan, I vote ACA. Consensus seems to be that RJs are inappropriate for mainline ops. ACA will have to obtain mainline to reach the west coast - though, perhaps some very reasonable leases could be obtained in the current market. A saturated LCC market in the DC area plus attempting to pilfer premium long-haul traffic from even a weakened UA.
Good luck to ACA.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
AASTEW
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2001 10:47 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:09 am

Of course, many of your statements/opinions are true...AA's labor/management relationship is probably the worst in the industry. Yes, AA is in a lot of debt. Same with the rest of the industry. Yes, contract violations are still happening. ROME WASN'T BUILT IN A DAY!

Corporations will be corporations....they LIE!

However, I must admit the company has made SOMEWHAT of a turnaround! Much better than the times we were facing back in April with Carty and gang. Give us frontline employees some credit!
 
searpqx
Posts: 4173
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2000 10:36 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:42 am

NWAA330 - I've avoided posting, because this really isn't what this thread is about, but you still don't have it quite right. While NW has indeed been at the forefront of web enabled transactions, most of the firsts go to Alaska/Horizon. AS/QX were the first to offer online checkin, the first to offer wireless checkin, and they've had kiosks deployed to almost every domestic station for quiet awhile (not sure if they are in all the small stations up in Alaska). Admittedly, when it comes to kiosk deployment, we're talking vast differences in scale, but the base technology was pioneered by AS. Heck, even way back in the beginning, AS/QX were one of the first with online bookings and then electronic ticketing. AS was so eager to introduce e-ticketing, they developed their own homegrown version while the version used today was still being developed by SABRE, putting them ahead of their own RES host.

Anyway, I'm not trying to detract from NWA's efforts and accomplishments, but its fair to give credit where credit is due.

Regards
Duane
"The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and stupidity"
 
AA7573E
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2003 11:34 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:56 am

NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass

That is 100% incorrect. AA, Contiental, Alaska, Delta....the list goes on. Every flight I have taken on those airlines, I have checked in online. This is my problem with your argument NWAA330. You make claims like the one above that are wrong, and use them to assert a competitive advantage that NWA has, when at best they are just on the same level as the other airlines.

And to the best of my knowledge their is a substantial LCC presence in Dallas, known as Southwest Airlines. AA has been competing with them on their home turf for a long time now.

[Edited 2003-11-09 18:58:50]
See you up front!
 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 7:33 am

Atlas/Polar has been hit pretty hard by the slump in the cargo market, especially in their niche, ACMI leases. But things started going south for them before the slump in the air cargo market.

In some respects, US Airways is the most vulnerable carrier right now. They have been hit pretty hard in their bread and butter routes in the Northeast. They did take a pretty bad blow by the long term shutdown of DCA after 9/11, and are still trying to recover from that. One can squeeze a sponge so much until is it dry, and another two or three quarters of losses could send them back to CH. 11. Another CH. 11 filing could be the end of the airline, as they will have trouble finding investors willing to finance the airline. The RSA will probably try to force them to sell assets to raise capital, and they will probably succeed in that, as the RSA owns 36.6% of the company. The RSA has already in the past threatened to pull their stake in the airline if they couldn't get the employee groups to agree to wage concessions, which would probably send them back into if they cannot cuts costs any further. US Airways should spin off the Shuttle and the wholly owned regionals in a bid to for capital.
 
NWAA330
Posts: 196
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2003 5:18 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 11:03 am

Searpqx,

I completely apologize for posting that incorrect information. I went back and reread nwa.com where I originally found the information I posted. What I had failed to notice was that they say they are the first "major" airline to do such and such, unfortunately I didn't catch this the first time around. Thanks for catching my error.

AA7573E,

Check reply #38, I already addressed your complaint.

NWAA330
To Fly is to Live.
 
capt078
Posts: 415
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 9:52 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:41 pm

i'll limit my response to only the more "established" carriers, and not to those few carriers that only have a handful of planes and flights.

among the major (10 largest) carriers, united and american are in the worst financial condition. united is already in bankruptcy, and under bankruptcy law, they cannot re-enter bankruptcy for a specified period once they emerge from it. usually, the period is 7 years (although there may be some specific statutes for this industry). that leaves american. while american has made tremendous strides on the road to profitability and efficiency, it continues to operate inefficiently and would have been in bankruptcy had the government not intervened. simply put, american's costs are far too high, continuing to outpace revenue.

midwest is the only other carrier that comes to mind. i certainly believe that midwest is in a much more precarious position than is american. midwest is so strapped for cash, they have spent the last month mortgaging their headquarters and other capital.
 
StevenUhl777
Posts: 3281
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2001 11:02 am

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:07 pm

Capt078: Thank you...you're the only who's come remotely close to answering my question as to why people think AA will be next.

The thread started talking about check in technology at NWA, then the Mexicana thing, and then some apologies for misposted information!  Nuts

And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
qqflyboy
Posts: 1617
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2003 1:47 pm

RE: Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?

Tue Nov 11, 2003 5:35 am

Maybe there are some financial wizards here that can help me out with this. I've heard, time and time again, about debt and profits. I've heard cash is the kicker, above anything else. If it falls below a certain level (determined by the company) that's when Chapter 11 will be filed. If this is the case, AA has doubled their cash and short term investment balance sheet since last April... from a low of 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion currently (this info from the AMR CORP.com press releases).

A side note: Up above someone wrote about pensions at AA, and how AA employees should be worried. In this months issue of Flagship News, AA's company newspaper, AA compared it's pension funding to other airlines. Based on those other airline's annual statements from 2002, AA's was at 73% while DL (67%), US (60%), UA (57%), CO (54%) and NW (52%). AA, this year alone, has already contributed $300 million to funding pensions, according to its 3Q report to the SEC.
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aerlingus747, B737900ER, babastud, Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], DC1979, deltal1011man, dmstorm22, ehaase, Google [Bot], hjulicher, jfklganyc, josciak, KarelXWB, LH452, LPSHobby, nightfox365, OSUk1d, smi0006, Someone83, speedygonzales, StTim, TheReckoner, VirginFlyer and 263 guests