DIA
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A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 1:34 am

Besides the current list of A380 customers who include Fedex, Emirates, Air France, among a few others . . . . .what currently existing airlines are likely to look into purchasing these giants in the future who are not on the "sign-up" list yet?

I ask this, because it seems to me that Airbus has shown a great future forecast for the A380. . .but just what airlines are they expecting to bit that haven't bitten already?

Cheers
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
ammunition
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 1:37 am

Air India  Big thumbs up Big thumbs up Big thumbs up Big thumbs up Big thumbs up Big thumbs up
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B-HOP
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 1:47 am

I say Cathay Pacific, China Airlines, might be PR
Live life to max!!!
 
Scorpio
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 1:56 am

South African Airways is apparently very interested (order for 4 plus 4 options is rumoured).

Air China looks like a strong candidate too (some say they'll take some of the ILFC ones). Traffic to and from China is expected to grow dramatically in the coming years, so they'll need them.

The Japanese carriers (JAL, ANA) can not be overlooked. Both have said they're not buying them just yet, but have said they'll seriously have to consider them in the not too distant future.

British Airways: Don't expect them to be getting any any time soon, but a few years down the line I think they'll need them.

Thai Airways looks likely too at some point.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:04 am

Here are my thoughts.

Besides Malaysian, Qatar, Emirates, Virgin, Qantas, Lufthansa, Air France, Fed-Ex, Korean, SIA and the rest -

* A much de-rated version with super high density seating arrangement for JAL and ANA - they wont buy it though - Boeing will not stand for it.
* Asiana (existing airbus customer) to buy them because Korean have.
* ANZ to get a small number (four?) for the SA)">AA), New Zealand">AKL-SA - California">LAX-LHR run.
* Air India as part of the Airbus widebody deal they just signed, to buy them for the LHR run - and on to New York. Loads could support it, and they will want a shiny new thing to take the gloss off the PIA triple sevens.
* Cathay Pacific - not sure if the ILFC planes are due for CX, but if they are not, CX should certainly be interested.
* China Eastern - Big widebody airbus user, and keen to establish credibility on world stage for upcoming entry into a major alliance.
* Iberia - bound to order them eventually, for Latin American flights.
* Thai - could fill one easily to LHR daily.
* SA)">NW -Could use the capacity to the far east - and a airbus widebody user, very happy with the A333 thus far apparently.
* Eva Air - mixed order of Freighters and pax - they certainly could fill it, and i would be surprised if they didnt get them at some stage.
* China Airlines - possible.
* South African - LHR and FRA routes almsot a certainty.
* One low-cost carrier - cheap fares across the atlantic - only really do-able and economical in plane that big - not as far fetched as it may sound.

Airlines i CANT see ordering the plane... Big grin

* BA - No way. 773ER, and 7E7 maybe...
* El-Al - European plane - aint gonna happen.
* SA)">AA - Nope.
* SA)">DL - Never.
* SA)">UA - Cant afford it, not to mention the fact that the plane is not made in America.
* KLM - Could fill it to SA and the Caribbean, but 773ER more likely.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Worldwide
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:05 am

I know this is a long shot, but how about NWA northwest? They are already well on their way to converting to an all Airbus fleet! Not to mention, with the extensive Pacific routes, the A380 might just be the B744 replacement they need.

Just my thoughts.
 
nwa330tony
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:11 am

I think NWA could possibly aquire a couple maybe 5-10yrs down the line but dont expect them to enter passenger service as the only way i see NWA purchase is to phase out the remaining B742 in thier Cargo Fleet. but thats just might opinion!

Tony C
 
motech722
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:19 am

CHRISBA777ER, I like your outlook on the A380. I think those listed definitely could get the plane in the future. I do think though that UAL could also be a potential customer in the future too. At the moment UAL can't afford it, but if the airline comes out of Chapter 11 and becomes a lean, mean, fighting machine, perhaps in the future they too would consider it. I also think NWA would be a potential candidate. In fact, I'd venture to speculate that any airline that currently operates the B747 would be a potential candidate for the A380 in the future.

Take Care
 
ORD2PHL
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:29 am

As for UA purchasing only US products, you might want to look at their healthy fleet of A319/320 family of aircraft that they purchased in lieu of persuing the 37NG. I would agree though, the A380 maybe quite aways away for UAL if at all but would make sense for their US-> Asia routes.

ORD2PHL
 
airsicknessbag
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:30 am

Every airline that can fill a 747 can make a profit from an A380. So, quite long list of potential customers Big grin

Daniel Smile
 
MD80Nut
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 2:48 am

I believe the A380 will pick up some new customers once it enters service. There's probably quite a few potential customers waiting to see how the airplane works out before taking the plunge.

UA wouldn't buy the A380 because it isn't made in America? Where was their large fleet of A320s and A319s (one of the largest if not the largest A320 family operators) built then, Renton???? ? Insane

[Edited 2003-11-13 19:03:53]
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
Jaws707
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 3:09 am

Also if Fed Ex has sucess with the A380, I would expect Fed Ex to convert their options to orders, and I would definately expect UPS to order the plane. Each carrier might have 20-25 A380's eventually.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 3:23 am

The UA / Europe thing - Sorry i forgot about that - i was thinking of the DL buying policy, and said UA instead - apologies.

Of the US airlines, i can see Northwest being the most likely candidate.

I dont agree that any 747 operator could fill a A380.

Philippines - doubt it.
Air Pacific - doubt it.
Aerolineas Argentinas
RAM
Egyptair - actually, they could not be as far fetched as first thought now i think of it.
Air Canada - Nope.
PIA - Just had a big 777 order - could easily fill it up, possibly more easily than any other airline, but big boeing order will have scuppered that I think.
Saudi - Doubtful - same as above.

What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Moolies
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 4:23 am

SAA i dont think will order them, I think they will do what they have done with there current airbus order. There is a possibility that not every airline that has ordered them will take them up and that is where SAA come in. They get them cheaper than normal price.
 
A388
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 4:28 am

I'm not that familiar with all airlines, but have to agree with most members here who focus on airlines who operate in and out of Asia. The A380 targets the Asian market, so there are still quite some candidates who haven't ordered any A380 sized aircraft, but I also think we must not forget Boeing as it appears they are working on a new growth variant of the 747-400ER with the engines of the 7E7 already being mentioned as potential new engines for the new 747. I still don't believe Boeing won't come up with a direct competitor for the A380 as the large aircraft market will become very attractive as soon as the aviation slump is over.

I only have my doubts about Iberia being able to operate a A380 profitably all year round. Is the Latin American market so big to support A380 operations all year through? I think the A340-600 and most likely the A340-600HGW or even the A340-500(HGW) will be more interesting for Iberia.

I also don't see any U.S. airline order the A380 in the near furure as their strategies are more focused on frequency rather than capacity. But than again slot restriction might force some airlines to order larger aircraft to be able to compete with airlines who already have ordered the A380. So it's really a matter of who is right, Boeing (more frequency) or Airbus (more capacity). Boeing's 7E7 and 777-300ER and maybe the 777-200LR will become very succesfull aircraft as these aircraft are becoming increasingly more popular with airlines around the world.

Just my thaughts  Wink/being sarcastic

Regards A388
 
MD80Nut
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 4:28 am

I agree with you, if any US airline buys the A380 for pax use it will probably be NWA. Their Asian routes make them a very likely candidate. I also think if UA can improve it's economic situation, they might be a good A380 candidate since they also have Asian/Pacific routes.

Once the A380 enters service I believe there will be more interest from airlines waiting to see how it works. I also think once airlines start to recover from the current slump you'll see more of them consider it.

cheers, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
kl911
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 4:35 am

Any chance of KLM flying MRS-AMS with the A380? That would be my best day! return after a days hard work having a bar and a smoking room at your disposal, instead of connecting at 'lovely, effective, friendly, nice' CDG  Laugh out loud
 
Leskova
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 4:48 am

I expect quite a few airlines will, at some point, simply be somewhat forced into buying the A380 or, if they decide to build it, the 747 with 7e7 features.

The main point for that arguement is that there are some routes operating at more or less maximum capacity at the moment, where more frequencies are simply not an option, due to either slot constraints at one or both ends, as well as due to curfews at airports.

As far as I remember, the Western Europe to Japan routes were often enough mentioned as candidates for A380s (which would fit perfectly into the often expressed view that most A380s will be operating into Asia) because of precisely this reason.

I'm not sure how this looks from the US, but I guess the slot constraints at NRT and KIX will probably limit expansion quite effectively.

While I expect that the use of 773ER, 772LR, 346 and 345 will probably take a bit of pressure off these - and other - congested hubs, but I doubt that this will be enough to take away the need for some routes to be switched to aircraft with higher capacity.
Smile - it confuses people!
 
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Richard28
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 5:34 am

Disagree with CHRISBA777ER, LHR slot constraints will quite possibly force BA to opt for the A380.

CX, JAL, ANA, Air India, and poss. SAA would be my thoughts for the next wave of purchases. But then what do I know?

Rich  Big grin
 
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solnabo
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 6:19 am

JAL, both longhoul and domestic would
gain with A 388 and later 388SR/domestic
more pax, and 388LR longhoul.........
Perfect a/c for Japan!!!
(shame that they´re married to US)

Michael/SE
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
Motorhussy
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Y

Fri Nov 14, 2003 6:27 am

Air New Zealand would fill A380's on their daily return flights AKL-LAX-LHR and their 744's will be getting tired in five years time. They'd also be perfect for their slot restricted AKL-NRT flights. That's four A380's by my calculations.

Replacement for the rest of the 744 fleet can be done with A346's.

MH
come visit the south pacific
 
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RayChuang
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Fri Nov 14, 2003 6:34 am

If Airbus can build a "Combi" version of the A380-800, they might just interest quite a few airlines to buy this plane. Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Asiana Airways, and possibly Korean Air might want this version of the A388.

As for future A388 passenger version customers, I think we will see Iberia order the plane by 2006, and in the end British Airways will need to order the plane so they can compete against Virgin Atlantic Airways and Singapore Airlines.
 
Motorhussy
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Y

Sat Nov 15, 2003 10:14 pm

In no particular order....


South African

China Airlines

Japan Airlines

ANA

Cathay Pacific

Air New Zealand

Air China (and subsidiaries)

Iberia

British Airways

Air India

NWA

Air Canada

United

Varig

Thai
come visit the south pacific
 
clipperno1
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sat Nov 15, 2003 11:55 pm

I think UPS should be a sure bet. They just got A300s and to what I've heard, they are very satisfied with them. The A380F would be a perfect substitution for the their vintage 747s and would make a pretty good job as a Hub-Connector. Plus the Express market is one of the few markets with steady growth over the next decades.

Their might be a market in the US, if one of the majors fold.

I find the idea of an A380 Combi very interesting, as you could you the lower cabin for freight to destinations with a high cargo demand and a medium-strong pax demand. This certainly would let the list of potential orders grow. This would depend on the FAA, if they would block such a bird for security reasons as well, as they did with 747 combi in the past.
"I really don't know one plane from the other. To me they are just marginal costs with wings."� Alfred Kahn, 1977
 
notdownnlocked
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 12:14 am

jetblue will eventually order them after they run AA, UA, DL, CO, NW, and all the other so-called newly named "cartel" airlines are out of business and also as a way to one-up WN and FL. They will need these planes for their shuttle flights from everywhere to everywhere all over the US as all the other higher priced airlines will be long gone. Unfortunately in later years (around 15-20) their fares will have to rise due to their aging workforce demanding the industry standard pay as those before them and benefits along with having to cover maintenance costs associated with their global fleet and agency aircraft. But alas in another generation a newer lower cost carrier will come along and beat them at their own game and the cycle that started a few years back will start all over again.
 
lauda777
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 12:29 am

"Air New Zealand would fill A380's on their daily return flights AKL-LAX-LHR and their 744's will be getting tired in five years time."

Motorhussy, somehow I dont think Air NZ will be around for that long, since Qantas wasn't allowed to come to the rescue.
Just how long do you think it will stand up on its own?
The NZ government must be really commited if theyre ordering A380s  Insane
We remind passengers all flights are non smoking, if you are caught smoking you will be asked to sit outside on the wing
 
BlueJet
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 12:32 am

I do not want to be a buzzkill...but I honestly don't think that the A380 will be that much of a success. Too much hype, not enough reality...
 
teahan
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 12:33 am

In the short/medium term (before entry into service), I can personally imagine the following airlines commiting to the A380. 2006 and 2007 are now fully sold out with the first delivery positions available in mid-2008.

Air China: The company seems to get mentioned at every A380 press vconference including the recent Korean A380 announcement. "Airbus expects Air China to take A380s before the 2008 Olympic Games?" Surely there must be something behind all this?

Cathay Pacific: They were apparently close to a 10 plane commitment before the SARS crisis Many also expected them to secure early delivery positions (2006 and 2007) through ILFC but these have now been taken by Emirates.

South African Airways: CEO showed significant public interest in the aircraft earlier this year, would be ideal for use on South Africa - Heathrow flights.

British Airways: The company has gone from flatly rejecting the aircraft to "we will look at both the A380 and 7E7 in the next two or three years." Plenty of much discussed other reasons why BA should consider the plane.

Thai International: Most major regional competitors already have the plane on order and Thai did show interest last year until the opportunity to purchase cheap ex-UA B744s came along (but that deal is now off).

ANA/JAL: While JAL have rejected the plane, they also admitted that if too many competitors were flying A380s to Japan, they'd have to "consider it". ANA CEO recently said he was impressed with it and would "consider" it in the future. Moreover, if one purchases the plane, they other will most certainly will follow.

Clearly they are unlikely to get 7 new customers ( MH and QR confirmations) in less than three years, but maybe at least 2-3 of the above.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
teahan
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 12:44 am

@BlueJet: "Too much hype, not enough reality".... Then can you explain 121 firm commitments and MOUs for another 7 aircraft?

Furthermore the A380 is more real then ever. Airbus Deutschland has completed the structural assembly of the first A380 full fuselage cross section while assembly of the first wing box is ongoing at St Nazaire in France. Pictures of both in Flight International this week.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
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scbriml
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:00 am

If BA has to compete with SQ and QF both flying A380s on the Kangaroo route, and Virgin on US routes, then I think they'll have to get some.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
donder10
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:01 am

The South Africa-LHR routes are pretty much at saturation already.Having 2 380s a day on the JNB run or one on CPT and JNB with the other 744 flights could quickly lead to overcapacity.

BA will probably end up ordering some once the type has gone into service for restricted routes such as LOS+India.However,they do want to wait a while and see how the aircraft performs which I find a little odd given Airbus performance and value guarantees to IB over the 346.

Air China will want the 380s to be online before the Olympics with all the hits being dropped.

Although the Japanese airlines suffer from slot restrictions,their economy is still not in the best of shape despite recent improvals and debt levels are perhaps still too high for an imminent order.

CX are a question of when not if.As are most of the other major airlines in the area such as TG,China Southern,China Eastern etc.

IB are the dark horse for a 380 order for maybe 6 or so.


 
bmacleod
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 3:41 am

I know its a longshot, but AC could be a launch customer for a Combi version of the 380.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
mandala499
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 4:03 am

Re. AirNZ, I agree with Lauda777,

AirNZ is not on my list of possible A380 candidates! They've been unable to create any positive operating cashflow since 1994.

On others...
I would say Saudi Arabian is a very likely candidate. If the costs are as what Airbus promised, quite likely they want the capacity for their Hajj flights. Their 743s marketability in the Hajj charters are slowly running out because some countries impose age limits on aircraft used for Hajj.

On a comical note...
I put TUI as a candidate ! JAMPACK those IT holiday people in one HUGE plane ! LOL

Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
donder10
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 4:13 am

Mandala,
Corsair getting some second hand models is a question of when not if!
 
BCAInfoSys
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 4:18 am

jetblue will eventually order them after they run AA, UA, DL, CO, NW, and all the other so-called newly named "cartel" airlines are out of business and also as a way to one-up WN and FL. They will need these planes for their shuttle flights from everywhere to everywhere all over the US as all the other higher priced airlines will be long gone. Unfortunately in later years (around 15-20) their fares will have to rise due to their aging workforce demanding the industry standard pay as those before them and benefits along with having to cover maintenance costs associated with their global fleet and agency aircraft. But alas in another generation a newer lower cost carrier will come along and beat them at their own game and the cycle that started a few years back will start all over again.

I hate to be criticial, but I just can't help it. This is just about the dumbest thing I have ever read.
Militant Agnostic - I don't know and you don't either.
 
teahan
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 4:34 am

@BCAInfoSys: I'd say that was sarcasm.
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
Jaws707
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 4:38 am

Donder10, do you mean 2nd hand A380's? Because if they plan on that it might end up being a 25-30 year wait from now.  Wink/being sarcastic
 
donder10
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 9:06 pm

I expect some 380s to be dumped rather quickly.
 
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airzim
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 9:59 pm

JAL/ANA-the Japanese carriers have already said that they cannot use the A380 in the domestic market without major changes to infrastructure of the airports. They will not buy a plane that can be used internationally and not domestically. This has nothing to do with being "married to the US." Ignorant statements.

Thai will buy it not because they can fill it to LHR, but because the government of Thailand who owns TG has stated that it is the responsibility of Thai to bring tourist into Thailand to spend money, not for TG to make money. Why do you think they almost bought UA's 744's. It is not for the airline's benefit, its for the good of the country.

As for the rest of the airlines out there, who knows. Air India in the present world could argue for the plane, but if the Indian government stopped being the monkey on their back and they could rationalize their fleet and network properly I would argue the A380 would be a waste of money.

NW will not buy this airplane. You need a plane that you can transition from one market to the next as traffic patterns change. The 747 is dicey at this stage even now for NW. When the traffic came apart during SARS and the Asian economic crisis they had no choice but to chuck the planes on Europe, not the optimal market for them. Plus what happens if you have 2 or 3 A380's inbound to NRT from the States and not enough seats for them to connect onto beyond NRT? You end up flying empty seats into NRT. Waste of resources. You might as well put in bars and fitness centers.

This plane seems to work best when doing point-to-point traffic, not feeder flights. There is a capacity problem on the other end and unless there is enough demand to transport in the local market you could be screwed big time. I see this as NW's biggest problem in Tokyo since there is a significant connection issue.

Look, let's be serious about why airlines are buying this airplane, prestige. The numbers just don't add up especially when these carriers are adding so few to their fleet.

QF-LAX-SYD, point to point with some feed to partners OK, I can see it in this market

AF-No idea why they bought it.

LH-same issue just don't see it

EK-Easy one here, prestige. They probably have enough seats beyond DXB to make this work. But I would still argue that the 773 would perform this task just as well.

QR-cause EK did

VS-they are almost solely point-to-point. Could argue they need it with slot problems

FX-cargo no brainer

MH-no idea. Their market just doesn't support it

KE-Same problem as the rest

SQ-just don't get it. They always have to feel like they are the leader. They even code-shared with BA to put their logo on the Concorde for no reason.

Maybe I am wrong, but it is clear that reducing capacity and trying to improve yield is the only way airlines can make money. Other than the ones stated, airlines are not a public utility. It should not be their responsibility to just put butts in the seats to satisfy someone else's needs.

 
Alessandro
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 10:11 pm

What about Brazil, can Varig be a potential customer?
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
cptkrell
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Sun Nov 16, 2003 11:58 pm

I like Notdownlocked's notdownlocked humor. Very good, indeed. As far as U.S. carriers go, I would not be surprised to see a few A380s in NW colors down the road. Regards...Jack
all best; jack
 
manni
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Mon Nov 17, 2003 12:24 am

Airzim,

I reckon that any A380 operator having Tokyo in their timetable will fly the A380 to Tokyo. So the infrastructure to handle several A380's simultaneously will certainly exist at NRT. In a recent interview (partially posted on this forum, a couple days ago), ANA's CEO stated that they will certainly have to look into the possibility of purchasing the A380. He did say that it wont be usefull for the domestic market.

LH, restricted in slots at NRT and India, will be very happy to add the A380 to their fleet. 80 million Germans,the EEC's biggest economie, with only one major international home carrier will fill up A380's easily, BKK is just one example.

KE, One of the worlds fast growing economies, 50 million Koreans, multiple flights a day to LAX, HKG, NRT etc. 5 A380's seems a bit of a small order to me, expect them to order much more. KE Cargo is one of the worlds largest in it's categorie.

SQ, One of the worlds most populair airlines. Several flights a day to LHR and FRA and if they could they probaply would even increase their frequencies to this destinations. But they can't, so the A380 is ideal for them.

MH, Fishing into the same pond as SQ. South East Asia is becoming one of the most popular holiday destinations for Europeans. Not to mention the cheap labor provided in these countries, making it attractive to invest into product plants in the region, and attract a lot of business traffic aswell.

AF, Also for AF, NRT must be the prime destination for the A380. Several flights a day from AF, NH and JL connect the French capital with NRT. If only they could increase their frequency...

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airzim
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Mon Nov 17, 2003 6:53 pm

Manni,

I think you misunderstood me, the Japanese carriers would not use their domestically configured A380's from Narita, they would need them in Haneda the domestic airport in Tokyo and in Osaka the domestic airport is Itami not Kansai. In addition the high density flights go from Tokyo to Sapporo, Nagoya, Okinawa etc. These airports cannot handle the A380 either. Therefore, the A380's would not work in the domestic market in Japan without major infrastructure upgrades. I have also argued that ANA and JAL would not buy a plane that couldn't be used in both international and domestic services.

I disagree with your other examples, LH to Bangkok while I am sure is a high traffic route is also one of the lowest yielding routes in Asia. Why would you put this plane in markets where there is already excess capacity? While NRT and DEL/BOM could use more seats to/from FRA, one market just doesn't make sense to me to buy a new airplane.

Plus do you think that NRT-LAX needs more seats? With TG, JL, NW, KE, NH, MH, SQ, UA, and RG in the market I think there are enough seats. In fact ANA is using 777's to all markets in the US except JFK because the yields to the US are crap right now. What happens if you have this whale and the traffic dries up again, where are you going to put it?

Korean Air, interesting. How many airlines fly from the US to Seoul today? Well KE and OZ cover most market but the only other airline that flies nonstop is UA from SFO and with 777s. NW connects over NRT. Doesn't look like we need anymore seats that are already available since if the demand was there, why wouldn't UA fly from ORD, NW from DTW, CO from EWR etc.

Almost all your examples are from NRT to somewhere. Well you've just confirmed my theory, in markets where there is a point to point capacity problem you could argue for this airplane. High connection markets this plane just doesn't make sense. Unless you have a sufficient fleet on the other end to transfer the pax, your dead. You cannot accept the transfer traffic because you are creating bottlenecks in your network.

God forbid another war, economic crisis, terrorist incident etc., happens again. Those airlines are going to be begging to get rid of this plane.

 
lauda777
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Mon Nov 17, 2003 7:34 pm

According to justplanes.com Air New Zealand is reportedly considering between the 777-300ER and the A340 to replace their fleet of 8 747-400's in 2004 seems Boeing is keen as they flew a 777-300ER down to Auckland to show it off, so it doesnt look as though theyre going for the A380 after all.
Doesnt come as a surprise to me....
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manni
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:41 pm

Airzim,

I didn't misunderstood you about the Japanese airports. read my last sentence in my first paragraph again. Also, I'm well informed what Japanese airports in both Tokyo and Osaka concerns. As for your argument that JAL and ANA wouldn't buy planes that can not be used for both domestic and international flights, that's new to me. ANA's CEO has clearly said that it will consider the A380 for international routes.

LH route to BKK might be low yield, but their flights certainly get filled up. If the A380 is more economic on a cost per seat per mile base, than any other aircraft, it certainly makes sense on high density low yield routes such as BKK-FRA.

Most airlines between LAX and Asia have multiple flights a day, with either 747's or 777's. If the yields are low but the volume of passengers high, the A380 would be ideal to beat the competition.

If KE has ordered the A380 it certainly thinks that they have a market for it and that they can fill up the plane. If I recall correct, the ICN-USA market is targeted with their A380's in the first place. Any investment involves risks, but I doubt airlines would be keen to take bigger risks when ordering the A380 than when they previously ordered aircraft. Only time wil tell...

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DIA
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Tue Nov 18, 2003 12:13 am

Let me jump in here. . .

Regarding the A380 for Japanese domestic service; please fill me in on Airbus's plans or thoughts on this. Is there an A380 on the drawing board that will be specifically outfitted for this job? Is a shorter version with lighter weight landing gear?

I can't remember. . .but I'd sure like to know if Airbus is planning a "short-range" or "domestic" A380.

Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
Jaws707
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Tue Nov 18, 2003 1:38 am

In regards to some of the negative posts here about the A380, I think that some of us are forgetting that airlines traffic is increasing at about 5% per year and it will still be a few years before the A380 is delivered. Virgin for example is pretty much out of slots at LHR. So the only way they can grow their business is by increasing the size of their aircraft. They purchased 6, and I belive they should have no problem replacing some existing 747 routes with those A380's. Everyone always bashes Emirates, but they are continuing to grow their business and they seem to be having a lot of sucess. DUX-LHR for example is a route that can use the A380 right now, and maybe 2A380's dedicated to it right now. I also see a bunch of markets in Asia and Australia where the plane should be very succesful. Lufthansa operates a ton of 747's. As those get older and the amount of people on the routes continues to increase what else can they replace the 747 with? Same case for Air France. Singapore has some key routes like to LAX, and LHR that could probobly fill the A380 right now. We have to remember that a plane like the A380 can be 60% full of people, but if it is full of cargo it can still make a profit, that is the logic that I see for Korean Airlines. Same with them that the A380 is being used on very well established routes just upgrading from the 747.
 
Qb001
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Tue Nov 18, 2003 7:47 am

I would not discard AC too soon. If AC puts its act together and is successful with its "new" business plan, the 380 might come handy for routes such as
YYZ-LHR
YYZ-FRA
YUL-FRA
YUL-CDG (AF said it will use the 380 on that route)
YVR-HKG
YVR-NRT.

But I do admit it's a long shot.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
 
skymileman
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Tue Nov 18, 2003 7:51 am

My personal opinion is that after this first wave of customers has the aircraft in operation, we will see the tell-all moment. I don't much care for Airbus, but I really think that if it is a good product and this first set love it, there will be a rush order for more, possibly even from the states. I would love to see the 7e7 get lots of business as well.

-Lane
 
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airzim
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RE: A380 Customers Who Are Not On Airbus's Radar Yet

Tue Nov 18, 2003 8:12 am

Manni,

You totally ignored my point, so I will say it again. The Japanese carriers cannot use the A380 in the domestic network. Period. Ohashi-san may have said that they are evaluating the A380, but I think that is rethoric. They can't use it domestically, therefore they won't buy it internationally. They are losing money hand over fist on the international sectors, in fact they have never made money on long haul flying. Why would you buy a plane with more seats then your current 747 fleet, which you aren't even flying in the US market (except JFK) to depress yields even more?

Airlines measure profitability on RASK. Adding more seats only puts increased pressure on meeting profit targets.

Can you explain this statement to me, "If the yields are low but the volume of passengers high, the A380 would be ideal to beat the competition."

How?